纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价25日下跌6.5美元，收于每盎司3410.7美 元，跌幅为0.19%。 继上周五大幅拉涨之后，本周初黄金市场重回夏季平淡交易模式之中。目前市场基本消化了美联储主席 鲍威尔22日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会上的讲话。 鲍威尔在其主旨演讲中暗示，美联储最早将于9月政策会议上降息。鲍威尔同时指出，美国经济给美联 储官员带来了"挑战性局面"。美联储正在努力应对通胀率仍然高于2%的目标且仍在上升的事实，以及 劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。其他美联储决策者也对降息是否正确存在分歧。 此外，当天美元指数反弹走高，也给金价带来压力。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨 0.73%，在汇市尾市收于98.430。 不过，市场分析人士表示，美元持续疲软将继续提振金价。更重要的是，美国政府对央行的干预以及政 策失误的可能性可能是市场更大的担忧，这将对利率、美元和黄金产生影响。基于此，尽管全球不确定 性有所缓解且交易流向发生变化，但市场分析人士认为金价仍受到良好支撑，下行风险仍然有限。 只不过从技术上看，金价现在难以摆脱盘整，上方3400美元整数关口仍在近期构成明 ...

根据欧盟统计局的数据，2025年7月欧元区年通胀率为2%。2025年7月欧盟年通胀率为2.4%。年通胀率 最低的国家是塞浦路斯（0.1%）、法国（0.9%）和爱尔兰（1.6%）。年通胀率率最高的国家是罗马尼 亚（6.6%）、爱沙尼亚（5.6%）和斯洛伐克（4.6%）。 （原标题：塞浦路斯7月通胀率0.1%欧盟最低） 塞浦路斯通讯社8月21日报道，根据塞统计局和欧盟统计局20日公布数据，7月份年塞CPI指数为欧盟最 低，仅为0.1%。餐饮和酒店（5.9%）以及娱乐和文化（4.2%）增幅最大，而服装和鞋类（-7.1%）以及 住房、水、电和天然气（-4.4%）降幅最大。与 2024 年 7 月相比，经济类别中变化最大的是能源价格指 数下降9.7%。 ...

Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni在采访中表示，美联储9月降息的可能性不足50%，具体概率约为40%。 他指出，美联储在9月会议前仍需评估两份通胀报告和一份就业数据，当前就业市场呈现"非常不稳定的 劳动力市场"特征——首次申领失业救济金人数显示裁员规模较小，但持续申领人数增加表明求职周期 延长。他认为，企业可能因观望人工智能等技术对劳动力的替代效应或生产效率提升而推迟招聘计划。 在通胀方面，Yardeni对服务业通胀率持续高位表示担忧。他提到，消费者物价指数(CPI)和生产者物价 指数(PPI)中的服务业通胀率长期维持在3%-4%区间，而耐用品价格因关税政策停止下跌后，这一局面 可能进一步恶化。尽管存在这些挑战，他仍认为推迟降息是积极信号，反映经济具备韧性且尚未达到 2%的通胀目标，因此美联储无需急于调整政策。 施密德指出："当你逐渐接近最优的双重使命目标时，实际上更难在边际上决定政策利率应该走向何 处。我认为政策略有紧缩，但我们走在正确道路上。"他同时提到，最近几个月通胀有所加快，并且企 业能将部分进口成本上涨转嫁给消费者。 除了施密德之外，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克也认为当前的货币政策 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes since March 2023 [1] - The FOMC members unanimously acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity growth in the first half of the year, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting data [1] - The decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged was supported by a 9-2 vote, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening of the labor market [1] Group 2 - Recent labor market data showed that July's non-farm payroll additions were significantly below expectations, with an increase in the unemployment rate and a drop in labor force participation to its lowest level since the end of 2022 [1] - Historical revisions to employment data for May and June erased over 250,000 job additions, undermining the perception of a strong labor market [1] - The mixed inflation data in July has caused discomfort within the Federal Reserve, with ongoing tariff effects expected to continue pushing inflation higher in the coming months [2]

尽管受到美国关税的影响，欧元区私营部门仍以15个月以来的最快速度扩张，制造业摆脱了长达三年的低迷态势。标普全球编制的综 合采购经理人指数(PMI)从7月份的50.9升至8月份的51.1，进一步高于50的荣枯分界线。分析师此前预测为50.6。 服务业表现略有减弱，但仍符合预期，制造业PMI则跃升至50.5，打破了小幅放缓的预期，并实现了自2022年6月以来的首次扩张。德 国的制造业也接近结束长达三年的低迷期。 他表示："美国的贸易政策正在产生影响。德国此前表现良好，这可能是因为美国客户提前采购，但现在订单也出现了下降。法国在过 去几个月里已经走出了外需下滑的困境，但新订单仍在下降。" 欧元区20国经济第二季度意外增长0.1%，但远低于此前三个月0.6%的增速，当时受到关税引发的囤货热潮的影响。通胀率徘徊在欧洲 央行设定的2%目标附近。 汉堡商业银行经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia周四表示："情况正在好转。尽管面临美国关税和普遍的不确定性等不利因素，但欧元区各地的 企业似乎都表现得相当不错。" 欧元兑美元汇率稳定在1.1654，此前曾小幅下跌，而欧元区债券价格则继续下跌，德国10年期国债收益率上涨2个基 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Central Bank of Russia may lower the key interest rate from 18% this year if inflation decreases rapidly, but maintaining the current level is also a possibility to ensure sustainable inflation reduction [1] - The baseline forecast indicates that the inflation rate is expected to be between 6%-7% in 2025, and subsequently drop to 4% in the following years [1] - The average key interest rate is projected to be between 16.3%-18% from August to December this year, with expectations of 12%-13% next year, although the specific year-end figure may exceed this range [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank's predictions consider the possibility of further rate cuts if inflation improves significantly, but emphasizes that a rate decrease this year is not guaranteed [1] - The statement highlights that the current interest rate of 18% may be maintained if necessary, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations, amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and a slight decrease in inflation rates over the past year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in Israel for July was reported at 3.1%, which is slightly above the target upper limit, but forecasts suggest it will return to the target range in the coming months [3]. - The government has decided to raise the fiscal deficit ceiling to 5.2%, indicating potential challenges in managing economic stability [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The central bank highlighted various risks that could accelerate inflation or deviate from targets, including geopolitical developments, demand growth coupled with supply constraints, and deteriorating global trade conditions [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty is expected to impact economic activity, with potential scenarios leading to increased supply constraints and slower economic recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The Bank of Israel's Governor, Amir Yaron, expressed a desire to lower interest rates three times next year to reach 3.75%, although the timing for such reductions remains uncertain [4]. - A lower risk premium could lead to a rapid expansion in demand, and the appreciation of the shekel is anticipated to help reduce inflation [5]. Group 4: Investment Climate - The Israeli economy faces uncertainties due to market and technological investment conditions, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs, which pose risks to the economy [6]. - The reliance of Israel's technology sector on U.S. venture capital funding makes it particularly vulnerable to these uncertainties, affecting overall economic performance [6].

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The decision was influenced by stagnant economic recovery in Q2 and anticipated further cooling of inflation [1] - Current inflation is near the upper limit of the RBNZ's target range (1% to 3%), with expectations of a decline to around 2% by mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cumulatively reduced interest rates by 250 basis points, one of the largest reductions among major Western economies [2] - Global monetary policy remains divergent, with various central banks taking different stances on interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rates but is widely expected to initiate its first rate cut of the year in September [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent PPI data release in the U.S. has significantly altered market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a substantial rate cut in September [2][4][6]. Group 1: PPI Data Impact - The U.S. July PPI year-on-year rate was reported at 3.3%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.4% and market expectations of 2.5% [2]. - The month-on-month PPI for July was 0.9%, also exceeding the previous value of 0.00% and market expectations of 0.20% [2]. - Experts noted that the impact of PPI data is more significant than that of CPI data, as PPI reflects price pressures at the production level [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Response - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September dropped to around 85%, down from 100% [4]. - Comments from Federal Reserve officials indicated a shift in sentiment, with concerns about the necessity of a 50 basis point cut being dismissed [4]. - The core PCE inflation rate, a favored inflation measure by the Fed, is expected to rise from 2.8% to 2.9%, influenced by tariffs [4]. Group 3: Political Reactions - President Trump, who had previously pressured Fed Chair Powell for rate cuts, has remained silent following the PPI data release, indicating a shift in the political narrative [6]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has also begun to find excuses for previous statements regarding rate cuts, suggesting a retreat from aggressive rhetoric [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a high of 3374.9 and a low of 3329.8, ultimately closing at 3334.9 [8]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of further declines in gold prices, targeting levels around 3330 and potentially lower [9][11].

【环球时报综合报道】美国知名投行高盛10日发布研究报告，其中"美国消费者将承担关税成本"的分析 激怒美国总统特朗普，后者12日在社交平台对高盛及其首席执行官大卫·所罗门展开"猛烈攻击"。 据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）13日报道，高盛研究报告指出，从今年4月到6月，美国消费者承担了 加征关税成本的22%，如当前关税模式维持不变，到今年10月，美国消费者将承担加征关税成本的 67%。这一结论跟特朗普长期强调的、其他国家成为关税主要承担者的说法大相径庭。 12日，特朗普在社交平台上向高盛及其首席执行官大卫·所罗门"开炮"。特朗普称，关税并未导致通 胀，也没给美国造成任何其他问题，大量现金正"涌入"美国财政部账户。 特朗普还抱怨说："高盛和大卫·所罗门对我的功劳视若无睹，所罗门应该招聘新的经济学家，或者干脆 专心当DJ去打碟好了，别再掌舵大型金融机构。"据悉，所罗门的打碟爱好"尽人皆知"，此前他多次在 公共活动中表演打碟。高盛董事会对所罗门这种"不务正业"的行为感到不满，因此他在两年前停止了打 碟的副业。 报道称，高盛拒绝对特朗普的言论发表评论。但除高盛外，许多其他美国知名金融机构也发出警告，特 朗普政府的关税正导 ...