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建信期货多晶硅日报-20250430
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 23:39
Report Information - Report Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon futures price rebounded but faced resistance and returned to a weak trend. The closing price of PS2506 was 37,320 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.14%. The trading volume was 116,998 lots, and the open interest was 58,208 lots, with a net increase of 3,116 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The weekly spot price remained weak. The成交 price range of N-type dense materials was 35,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton, with an average成交 price of 35,900 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10%. By the end of April, the "rush to install" in the photovoltaic terminal was gradually coming to an end, and the positive effect was diminishing. The strong - stimulus policy disrupted the short - and long - term market judgments of the photovoltaic market and formed a negative feedback. The expectation of further production cuts by enterprises was low, and the strong supply - demand expectation had recently reversed. There was also an expectation of increased production after the flood season, and the price would continue to fluctuate weakly after breaking through the support level [4] Market News - As of April 29, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On April 21, the international energy think - tank Ember released the "2025 Global Electricity Review", showing that in 2024, the proportion of global clean electricity reached 40.9%, the highest since the 1940s. The technological iteration of photovoltaic modules promoted the decline of photovoltaic power generation costs. It was expected that the benchmark levelized cost of electricity for global photovoltaic power generation in 2025 would decrease by 31% compared with 2024. The cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in China was expected to exceed 300GW in 2025, and the market size was expected to exceed 150 billion yuan [5]