| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251126：上方承压 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/11/26 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 8,960.00 0.22% 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 390.00 -20.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 51.00 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 54,730.00 2.65% | | | 元/吨 -3,730.00 -1,415.00 基差 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 元/吨 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 9,300.00 0.00% | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 9,350.00 0.00% | | | 不通氧553#（四川）平均价格 元/吨 9,050.00 0.00% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may put pressure on the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the downstream replenishment willingness is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market [1]. - For industrial silicon, the trading strategy is to conduct range - bound operations. For polysilicon, before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The closing price of the futures main contract was 9,020 yuan/ton, down 1.37% from the previous day. The basis (East China 553 - futures main contract) was 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan/ton. The average prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply**: Southwest production areas are entering the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped furnaces and production at the end of October, resulting in a significant decline in the operating rate. In November, the industrial silicon output is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. Although the number of open furnaces in the north increased steadily, the overall supply decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained production cuts, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased on demand. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices was limited [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Conduct range - bound operations. Pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton and continuously monitor industrial policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; N - type re -投料 price rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg; N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract was 54,045 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October still increased slightly, and the output in November is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were highly resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon platform and the evolution of macro - sentiment [1]. Other Information - On November 12, the ceremony for the full grid - connection of the 35 - megawatt solar photovoltaic power station equipment project aided by China to Cuba was held. The project includes 7 photovoltaic power stations, which will increase Cuba's clean power supply capacity and save about 18,000 tons of imported fuel annually [1]. - On November 6, the first - phase 102.56 - megawatt power generation unit of the Puxi Photovoltaic Project of the Dadu River Ashui (New Energy) Company under the National Energy Group was successfully connected to the grid, marking the commissioning of the first - phase components of the group's highest - altitude centralized photovoltaic power station [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. For industrial silicon, pay attention to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. - For polysilicon, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which restricts the upward space of the market. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.16% to 9,195 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: In October, the southwest产区 entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production by the end of October, and the silicon enterprise operating rate decreased significantly. In Yunnan, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term orders were in production, while in the north, the number of operating furnaces increased steadily. After offsetting, the industrial silicon output in November is expected to fall below 400,000 tons [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises were mostly in a state of reduced load or maintenance, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels was limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and the excess situation may suppress the market. Pay attention to the 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton pressure level. Adopt an interval operation strategy and continuously monitor industry policy changes and silicon enterprise production dynamics [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feeding material fell 0.10% to 52.15 yuan/kg; the prices of N - type mixed material and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.95% to 53,460 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output in October is expected to increase slightly, and the output in November may decline [1]. - Demand: The polysilicon market transactions were light, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises were resistant to high - priced resources, and the market was waiting for industry policy guidance [1]. Investment Strategy - The downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to rise. Holders of previous long - positions should protect their profits. Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips [1]. Automotive Industry Information - In October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.995 million and 2.961 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and 3.6%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.7% and 7.5%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of passenger cars were 24.237 million and 24.209 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 13.5% and 12.9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 364,000 and 361,000 respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% and 1.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% and 21%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles were 3.456 million and 3.479 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and 9% [1]. - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% [1]. - In October 2025, automobile exports were 666,000, with a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 22.9%. From January to October 2025, automobile exports were 5.616 million, with a year - on - year increase of 15.7% [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, with limited improvement on the demand side. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the market. Attention should be paid to the pressure level of 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton. [1] - Due to supply - side disturbances, the polysilicon market has seen an upward oscillation. However, considering the limited willingness of downstream enterprises to replenish inventory, there is significant pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which may lead to a market decline. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.50% to 9,065 yuan/ton; the basis was 235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In October, the southwest production area entered the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises shutting down furnaces. The overall industrial silicon production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The downstream demand is weak, with low inventory - building willingness. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt interval trading [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 52.2 yuan/kg. The closing price of the main futures contract rose 0.07% to 53,395 yuan/ton; the basis was - 2,395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side may see a slight increase in production in October and a decline in November. The market trading is light, and downstream enterprises resist high - priced resources. [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly testing long positions on dips [1] Other Information - On October 28, the step - up substation project of the 2GW photovoltaic power station in Saudi Arabia, jointly constructed by China Energy Engineering Corporation's international engineering company, Guangdong Power Engineering Corporation, and Northwest Engineering Corporation, officially started. [1] - As of November 6, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year and announcing the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [1][3] - Nvidia's market capitalization has surpassed $5 trillion, equivalent to approximately 36 trillion RMB, making it the first company in US stock market history to reach this milestone [1] - The Nasdaq index has experienced a significant surge, with a 56% increase from April to October, which is considered rare in the history of the US stock market [1][2] Group 2 - The Nasdaq index has shown strong bullish signals, breaking out of a month-long consolidation at historical highs with a nearly 5% increase over four days, indicating a robust buying signal [2] - The combination of the Federal Reserve's rate cut, trade talks indicating improved fundamentals, and Nvidia's stock surge reflects a favorable environment for the US stock market [3][4][5] Group 3 - The A-share market is experiencing a rally, driven by the performance of technology stocks that closely follow the trends in the US market, particularly the Nasdaq [6] - Policy support for new energy and green economy initiatives is expected to drive long-term investment opportunities in the A-share market [6] - The preliminary results of supply-side optimization through capacity consolidation among leading companies are reflected in the rising prices of key materials, such as N-type G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers and N-type dense materials [6][7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, but there is a risk of a price decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions. The polysilicon price is likely to be volatile and prone to rising, with supply-side disturbances remaining unstable [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.58% to 8,820 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is increasing steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and businesses in the southwest are operating more due to lower electricity costs. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, with some having复产 plans, which will bring some demand. However, the organic silicon market is facing supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises are purchasing as needed [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The industrial silicon market has strengthened recently due to polysilicon sentiment. It is expected that the short-term silicon price will maintain high-level consolidation, but if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions, it will be negative for the industrial silicon market [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, and N-type mixed material increased by 0.20%, 0.19%, and 0.20% respectively, while the price of N-type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 8.70% to 56,735 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase slightly as some silicon material factories may have new production capacity, but demand has also increased as many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments by the end of August, reducing inventory [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The polysilicon market has been rising recently due to rumors of state purchases. In the short term, supply-side disturbances may cause price fluctuations, and the price is likely to rise [1]. Other Information - **Industry News**: Southern Co's subsidiary, Georgia Power, has been approved to sign five new solar power purchase agreements with a total capacity of 1,068 megawatts. It has also launched a tender for up to 2,000 megawatts of utility-scale solar or "solar + energy storage" projects [1]. - **Company Announcement**: Daquan Energy's General Manager, Zhu Wengang, stated that the company will continue its production reduction strategy in the third quarter, with a production guidance of 27,000 to 30,000 tons, and an annual production guidance of 110,000 to 130,000 tons in 2025 [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, increased production in Inner Mongolia has led to a rise in output, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules continue to increase. In the short term, the lower limit is supported by cost and major manufacturers' price - holding, while the upper pressure mainly comes from downstream weakness and hedging. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 51,290 with a decline of 0.98% [1] - PS2508 closed at 51,500 with an increase of 1.97% [1] - PS2509 closed at 51,265 with a decline of 1.03% [1] - PS2510 closed at 51,375 with a decline of 0.94% [1] Spread - The spread between PS2508 and PS2509 is 235, with an increase of 1,530 [1] - The spread between PS2509 and PS2510 is - 110, with a decrease of 50 [1] - The spread between PS2510 and PS2511 is 85, with an increase of 25 [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense material is 46, with a change of 0% [1] - The average price of N - type mixed material is 45, with a change of 0% [2] Inventory and Other Data - The weekly inventory of polysilicon is 23.30 million tons, an increase of 0.40 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of silicon wafers is 0.96 GW, an increase of 19.11 GW [2] - The daily registered warehouse receipts are 210 tons, an increase of 5,150 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing fluctuations, with polysilicon futures showing a significant decline of 2.41% to 50,310.0 yuan/ton [1] Supply - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a notice regarding the special energy conservation inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry for 2025, which strengthens the expectations for capacity reduction in polysilicon production [1] Demand - Downstream silicon wafer companies are maintaining stable prices, and there is an increase in export demand due to expectations of reduced export tax rebates. Production schedules are expected to increase this month, with prices smoothly transmitting to battery cells. However, recent price reductions in mainstream component specifications raise concerns about end-user acceptance [1] Market Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is expected to remain a key area of focus, with support from lower spot prices. Downstream silicon wafers and battery cells are anticipated to rise in price, but components have not yet adjusted. There is an increase in warehouse receipts, leading to a cooling market sentiment, with short-term expectations of high-level fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and dynamics in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the fluctuations in prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, as well as the supply-demand balance and inventory levels across different segments of the industry [5][10][12]. Polysilicon Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported as 43.0 RMB/KG for re-investment materials, 41.0 RMB/KG for dense materials, and 41.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5]. - The price increase in polysilicon is driven by successful price adjustments in silicon wafers, although the increase is narrowing compared to previous weeks [6]. - The current inventory in the polysilicon industry is over 380,000 tons, with expectations of an upward trend in August [7]. - The overall supply of polysilicon is projected to be in the range of 120,000 to 125,000 tons in August, with new capacities expected to come online [8]. - There is a strong expectation for production recovery due to price corrections, but potential market saturation could pose challenges [9]. - N-type polysilicon prices have increased again, but the growth rate is slowing, with ongoing support from policy expectations [10]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are reported as 1.20 RMB/piece for M10, 1.55 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.35 RMB/piece for G12R [11]. - Silicon wafer manufacturers are controlling production to maintain supply-demand stability, which supports price increases [12]. - Current silicon wafer inventory has decreased significantly to around 16 GW, alleviating inventory pressure and enhancing bargaining power [13]. - All specifications of silicon wafers have seen price increases, driven by upstream supply constraints and strong overseas demand for battery cells [14]. Battery Cell Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type battery cells are reported as 0.285 RMB/W for M10, and 0.280 RMB/W for both G12 and G12R [15]. - Strong demand from regions like Turkey and Pakistan is noted, influenced by changes in tariff policies, while domestic demand is also rising due to expectations of export tax refunds [16]. - The inventory of specialized battery cell companies has decreased to around 5 days, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [17]. - The price increase in battery cells is successfully transmitted due to domestic and international stocking activities, but future sustainability depends on export tax policies and overseas demand [18]. Module Segment - The main transaction prices for modules are reported as 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm TOPCon modules and 0.72 RMB/W for 210mm HJT modules [19]. - Leading manufacturers are experiencing better order visibility, while smaller manufacturers face challenges in securing orders, leading to price reductions [20]. - Major manufacturers are attempting to maintain prices despite rising upstream costs, but the outcome remains uncertain due to ongoing negotiations [21]. - In Europe, module prices have continued to decline, while in India and the US, price stability is observed amidst changing tariff regulations [22].

Group 1: Black Materials Market - The black building materials market is experiencing a high-level retreat, with coking coal and coke prices dropping nearly 2% [1] - Iron ore prices have risen to a four-month high, supported by a decrease in global iron ore shipments and a decline in port inventories [3][5] - The demand for iron ore remains supported despite a decrease in pig iron production and high furnace operating rates, indicating a potential for continued price strength [5] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have shown volatility, with a significant intraday increase of over 2%, currently reported at 43,200 yuan/ton [6] - The market anticipates potential policy changes regarding capacity exit, which could open up price levels to 45,000 yuan/ton if supported by various factors [8] - The industry is closely monitoring downstream demand and pricing dynamics, as well as upcoming policy meetings that may influence market sentiment [8][9] Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index saw an increase of over 8% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although it later stabilized to less than 2% [10] - The rise in the shipping index is also attributed to the recovery of the U.S. economy, which has boosted international trade demand [10] - Analysts expect the European shipping index to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic recovery [10]