Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Fundamentally, increased production in Inner Mongolia has led to a rise in output, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules continue to increase. In the short term, the lower limit is supported by cost and major manufacturers' price - holding, while the upper pressure mainly comes from downstream weakness and hedging. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price - PS2511 closed at 51,290 with a decline of 0.98% [1] - PS2508 closed at 51,500 with an increase of 1.97% [1] - PS2509 closed at 51,265 with a decline of 1.03% [1] - PS2510 closed at 51,375 with a decline of 0.94% [1] Spread - The spread between PS2508 and PS2509 is 235, with an increase of 1,530 [1] - The spread between PS2509 and PS2510 is - 110, with a decrease of 50 [1] - The spread between PS2510 and PS2511 is 85, with an increase of 25 [1] Spot Price - The average price of N - type dense material is 46, with a change of 0% [1] - The average price of N - type mixed material is 45, with a change of 0% [2] Inventory and Other Data - The weekly inventory of polysilicon is 23.30 million tons, an increase of 0.40 million tons [2] - The weekly inventory of silicon wafers is 0.96 GW, an increase of 19.11 GW [2] - The daily registered warehouse receipts are 210 tons, an increase of 5,150 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent price trends and dynamics in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the fluctuations in prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, as well as the supply-demand balance and inventory levels across different segments of the industry [5][10][12]. Polysilicon Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported as 43.0 RMB/KG for re-investment materials, 41.0 RMB/KG for dense materials, and 41.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5]. - The price increase in polysilicon is driven by successful price adjustments in silicon wafers, although the increase is narrowing compared to previous weeks [6]. - The current inventory in the polysilicon industry is over 380,000 tons, with expectations of an upward trend in August [7]. - The overall supply of polysilicon is projected to be in the range of 120,000 to 125,000 tons in August, with new capacities expected to come online [8]. - There is a strong expectation for production recovery due to price corrections, but potential market saturation could pose challenges [9]. - N-type polysilicon prices have increased again, but the growth rate is slowing, with ongoing support from policy expectations [10]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are reported as 1.20 RMB/piece for M10, 1.55 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.35 RMB/piece for G12R [11]. - Silicon wafer manufacturers are controlling production to maintain supply-demand stability, which supports price increases [12]. - Current silicon wafer inventory has decreased significantly to around 16 GW, alleviating inventory pressure and enhancing bargaining power [13]. - All specifications of silicon wafers have seen price increases, driven by upstream supply constraints and strong overseas demand for battery cells [14]. Battery Cell Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type battery cells are reported as 0.285 RMB/W for M10, and 0.280 RMB/W for both G12 and G12R [15]. - Strong demand from regions like Turkey and Pakistan is noted, influenced by changes in tariff policies, while domestic demand is also rising due to expectations of export tax refunds [16]. - The inventory of specialized battery cell companies has decreased to around 5 days, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [17]. - The price increase in battery cells is successfully transmitted due to domestic and international stocking activities, but future sustainability depends on export tax policies and overseas demand [18]. Module Segment - The main transaction prices for modules are reported as 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm TOPCon modules and 0.72 RMB/W for 210mm HJT modules [19]. - Leading manufacturers are experiencing better order visibility, while smaller manufacturers face challenges in securing orders, leading to price reductions [20]. - Major manufacturers are attempting to maintain prices despite rising upstream costs, but the outcome remains uncertain due to ongoing negotiations [21]. - In Europe, module prices have continued to decline, while in India and the US, price stability is observed amidst changing tariff regulations [22].

Group 1: Black Materials Market - The black building materials market is experiencing a high-level retreat, with coking coal and coke prices dropping nearly 2% [1] - Iron ore prices have risen to a four-month high, supported by a decrease in global iron ore shipments and a decline in port inventories [3][5] - The demand for iron ore remains supported despite a decrease in pig iron production and high furnace operating rates, indicating a potential for continued price strength [5] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have shown volatility, with a significant intraday increase of over 2%, currently reported at 43,200 yuan/ton [6] - The market anticipates potential policy changes regarding capacity exit, which could open up price levels to 45,000 yuan/ton if supported by various factors [8] - The industry is closely monitoring downstream demand and pricing dynamics, as well as upcoming policy meetings that may influence market sentiment [8][9] Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index saw an increase of over 8% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although it later stabilized to less than 2% [10] - The rise in the shipping index is also attributed to the recovery of the U.S. economy, which has boosted international trade demand [10] - Analysts expect the European shipping index to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic recovery [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the price fluctuations of polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules, as well as the supply and demand dynamics affecting these segments [5][9][15]. Polysilicon Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type polysilicon are reported at 36.5 RMB/KG for recycled material, 34.0 RMB/KG for dense material, and 33.0 RMB/KG for granular silicon [5][6]. - There is an increase in transaction volume post-holiday, with some manufacturers selling below the mainstream price to stabilize cash flow, while crystal pulling factories are pushing for lower prices [6]. - Overall polysilicon inventory is above 370,000 tons, with a trend of increasing inventory due to slowed downstream purchasing [7]. - During the wet season, some manufacturers confirmed production increases, but cautious purchasing from crystal pulling factories is leading to price pressure [8][9]. Silicon Wafer Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type silicon wafers are 0.93 RMB/piece for M10, 1.27 RMB/piece for G12, and 1.07 RMB/piece for G12R [9][12]. - There is a divergence in supply and demand across different specifications, with excess inventory for 183N wafers, while demand for 210RN wafers is improving due to new production lines [10]. - Silicon wafer inventory remains stable at around 2 billion pieces, with no significant growth expected in the short term [12]. Solar Cell Segment - The main transaction prices for N-type solar cells are 0.250 RMB/W for M10, 0.270 RMB/W for G12, and 0.260 RMB/W for G12R [12][15]. - There is a significant pressure on the supply of 183-sized cells, while demand for 210RN cells is relatively strong, supporting current prices [13]. - Inventory levels for specialized solar cell manufacturers are around one week, but there is a risk of inventory rising due to oversupply [14]. Module Segment - The main transaction prices for modules are 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm double-sided TOPCon modules and 0.75 RMB/W for 210mm double-sided HJT modules [15]. - There is a vacuum in terminal module demand, with major manufacturers reducing production and mid-tier manufacturers also cutting back [16]. - Module prices are experiencing differentiation, with larger high-efficiency modules commanding a premium, while traditional components are seeing prices drop below 0.65 RMB/W [17]. Overseas Demand - In Europe, module prices remained stable in May, but future prices may be affected by the decline in imported products [18]. - In India, anti-dumping rulings on imported photovoltaic glass may increase local component costs [18]. - In the United States, FOB prices are stable, but concerns are rising regarding new investigations into Southeast Asian manufacturers [18].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the polysilicon price volatility will intensify [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On May 20, 2025, the average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) dropped 1.67% to 8,850 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) dropped 1.50% to 9,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped 0.18% to 8,130 yuan/ton. N - type polysilicon material dropped 1.33% to 37 yuan/kg, while the futures main contract closing price rose 0.81% to 37,150 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - Imported sand high - price decreased to 110,000 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan/ton from last week's high, and is expected to decline further. On May 8, the 350 - ton high - dispersion ultra - fine silver powder production line of Dongfang Jingcai was put into operation, which will fill the gap in domestic high - end silver powder production [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Industrial Silicon - In April, due to production cuts in Xinjiang, industrial silicon production decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, production is expected to increase slightly due to the resumption of production in Southwest China and new capacity ramping up, but the increase will be limited. Demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is weak, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline [1]. Investment Strategy for Industrial Silicon - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand with high inventory. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Polysilicon - Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and the resumption may be postponed. The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers, silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Investment Strategy for Polysilicon - Recently, the polysilicon price rebounded due to delivery factors and supply - side reform news, but then fell again. In the short - term, the weak fundamentals conflict with delivery factors, causing intensified price fluctuations. It is necessary to continue to monitor the evolution of "high positions and low warehouse receipts" [1].

Report Information - Report Date: April 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon futures price rebounded but faced resistance and returned to a weak trend. The closing price of PS2506 was 37,320 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.14%. The trading volume was 116,998 lots, and the open interest was 58,208 lots, with a net increase of 3,116 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The weekly spot price remained weak. The成交 price range of N-type dense materials was 35,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton, with an average成交 price of 35,900 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.10%. By the end of April, the "rush to install" in the photovoltaic terminal was gradually coming to an end, and the positive effect was diminishing. The strong - stimulus policy disrupted the short - and long - term market judgments of the photovoltaic market and formed a negative feedback. The expectation of further production cuts by enterprises was low, and the strong supply - demand expectation had recently reversed. There was also an expectation of increased production after the flood season, and the price would continue to fluctuate weakly after breaking through the support level [4] Market News - As of April 29, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On April 21, the international energy think - tank Ember released the "2025 Global Electricity Review", showing that in 2024, the proportion of global clean electricity reached 40.9%, the highest since the 1940s. The technological iteration of photovoltaic modules promoted the decline of photovoltaic power generation costs. It was expected that the benchmark levelized cost of electricity for global photovoltaic power generation in 2025 would decrease by 31% compared with 2024. The cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics in China was expected to exceed 300GW in 2025, and the market size was expected to exceed 150 billion yuan [5]

Report Information - Report Date: April 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The polysilicon futures price rebounded but faced resistance and returned to a weak trend. The spot weekly price remained weak, and the price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation due to factors such as the end of the "rush installation" in the photovoltaic terminal, the reversal of supply - demand expectations, and the expected production increase after the wet season [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The closing price of PS2506 was 37,780 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.05%. The trading volume was 80,862 lots, and the open interest was 55,092 lots, with a net decrease of 948 lots [4] - Future Outlook: The weekly spot price was weak. The成交 price range of N - type dense material was 35,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton, with an average成交 price of 35,900 yuan/ton, a 1.10% week - on - week decrease. By the end of April, the "rush installation" in the photovoltaic terminal was coming to an end, and the supply - demand expectation had reversed. There was also an expected production increase after the wet season, so the price would maintain a weak oscillation [4] 2. Market News - As of April 28, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - In 2024, the global clean power accounted for 40.9%, the highest since the 1940s. The benchmark levelized cost of electricity for global photovoltaic power generation in 2025 is expected to decrease by 31% compared to 2024. China's cumulative installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic is expected to exceed 300GW in 2025, and the market size is expected to exceed 150 billion yuan [5]