Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The current fundamentals of nickel are weak, but the contradiction in the ore end and cost support limit the downward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. Stainless steel prices are under pressure from marginal inventory accumulation, but the raw material end contradiction restricts the downward space, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon shows a weakly oscillating pattern with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand. Polysilicon has weak fundamentals and is affected by concentrated cancellation. The market is expected to pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [29][30][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side news causes frequent disturbances. Although the market focuses on the approval progress of Zimbabwe, the increase in raw material shipments from Australia and Chile in April will supplement the raw materials. The downstream replenishment willingness is not strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [62][65]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: International oil prices dominate the palm oil market. The post - Eid al - Fitr origin structure has weakened, and the April production recovery degree will be a key factor for the annual market. The soybean oil market is affected by the US bio - fuel blending policy, and the price center is expected to return to the middle [84][85][88]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal is oscillating and waiting for new drivers. Soybean has no driving force for the time being and the disk is oscillating. The market should pay attention to the April USDA supply and demand report, Sino - US trade progress, and South American weather [99][105]. - **Corn**: The corn market should focus on the inventory at the northern ports. The spot price has declined, and the futures price is affected by policy auction rumors and other factors. The price is expected to have a callback trend, but it is still a thinking of buying on dips [127][128][131]. - **Sugar**: Keep an eye on crude oil and maintain an oscillating and bullish thinking in the long term. The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market is affected by import rhythm and cost [148][150][173]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend, and domestic cotton futures will maintain an oscillating trend. The market should focus on the new - year planting and relevant policies [175][176][190]. - **Hogs**: The de - stocking of hogs is less than expected, and the bottom has not appeared. The spot price is expected to continue to decline in April, and the LH2605 contract of futures should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The peanut price has declined, and the futures are recommended to go long on dips. The market should pay attention to the digestion progress of the remaining goods in Henan in April and the impact of temperature on peanut indicators [205][206]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel is supported by marginal cost but limited by weak fundamentals. Stainless steel is under pressure from inventory accumulation and supported by raw material contradictions [5][6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1,815 tons to 87,892 tons on April 3, and the LME inventory decreased by 78 tons to 281,496 tons. The inventory of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain decreased [7][8]. - **Market News**: There are many news about nickel mines in Indonesia, including the adjustment of the benchmark price, the restart of mines in other regions, and the change of production quotas [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices both declined. Industrial silicon is affected by downstream production cuts, and polysilicon is affected by weak demand and concentrated cancellation [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon supply has partial复产, and demand has weakened. Polysilicon supply has decreased in the short term, and demand is also weak [30][31][33]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis weakened [61]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased, and demand has downstream replenishment. The inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks [62][63][64]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the supply - side news [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View**: Palm oil was affected by geopolitical situation and B50 news, and soybean oil was affected by crude oil and other factors [84]. - **This Week's View**: Palm oil is still dominated by energy prices, and the April production recovery is crucial. Soybean oil is affected by the US bio - fuel policy and South American weather [85][88]. - **Data**: The trading volume and price of palm oil and soybean oil futures have changed, and the inventory and export data of palm oil are also different [91]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Market**: The US soybean price oscillated, and the domestic soybean meal price was weak, while the soybean price was sideways [99][100]. - **Fundamentals**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased, the Brazilian soybean import cost decreased, and the US soybean planting area was slightly higher than expected [100]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and soybean are expected to oscillate, and pay attention to relevant reports and news [105]. Corn - **Market Review**: The corn spot price declined, and the futures price was affected by policy and inventory [127][128]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn declined, wheat price decreased, and corn starch inventory increased. Pay attention to the inventory at the northern ports [128][129][131]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: The international sugar price declined, and the domestic sugar price increased slightly. The net long position of funds increased [148][149]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market should pay attention to import policies [150][173]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton reached a new high this year, and domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market should focus on new - year planting [175][176]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton planting area is expected to increase, and the export data is good. The domestic cotton price is slightly lower, and the downstream demand is weak [179][180][184]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: The hog spot price was weak, and the futures price declined. The supply increased, and the demand was mainly for inventory [193]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The hog price is expected to continue to decline, and the LH2605 contract should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The peanut spot price declined, and the futures price also decreased. The supply has certain pressure, and the demand is different for different types of peanuts [205]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills and the impact of temperature [206].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation, especially the conflict between the US and Iran, which has a broad impact on various commodity futures markets [1][8][9][10]. - Different commodity markets show diverse trends and characteristics, with some markets being influenced by supply - demand relationships, while others are more affected by geopolitical events and policy factors. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London gold rose 3.51% to $4668 per ounce, and the international silver price rose 7.10% to $75.01 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There are signs of easing in the US - Iran conflict, but the conflict is not over [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a pull - back to buy gold; for silver, suggest gradually taking profits on previous short positions [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated strongly [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The authenticity of the news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees is to be verified. The supply of copper ore and scrap copper remains tight, and the spot of flat - water copper in East and South China is traded at a discount of 60 yuan and a premium of 50 yuan respectively [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [1]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.61% to 24,875 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 245 yuan per ton, with the LME price at $3475 per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The attack on core aluminum plants in the Middle East leads to expectations of supply contraction, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate strongly. Suggest buying on dips [1]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 3.88% to 2827 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 118 yuan per ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the release of new production capacity in Guangxi, the pattern of oversupply is further deepened. It is expected that alumina prices will oscillate weakly. Suggest waiting and seeing, and focus on the implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 31, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 23,480 yuan per ton and 16,500 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 60 yuan and + 5 yuan compared to the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 23,480 yuan per ton and - 16,500 yuan per ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 0.68 and 68.8 dollars per ton respectively. The seven - place zinc inventory on March 30 was 248,200 tons, a decrease of 1300 tons compared to March 26, and the five - place lead inventory on March 30 was 57,500 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to March 26 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The lead ingot inventory is accelerating its depletion, and the lead price shows a stop - falling signal. However, the import window is open, and the lead battery enters the traditional off - season in April. With the co - existence of the resumption of production of secondary lead and new overhauls, it is expected that the lead price will continue to oscillate narrowly. In the zinc market, the disturbance at the mine end intensifies, the import processing fee drops to a negative value, the domestic smelters have strong demand for ore, and the social inventory continues to deplete to below 250,000 tons. The tower and export orders support consumption, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - sentiment [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, pay attention to the implementation of smelter overhauls. If the inventory depletion continues, try to buy on dips. For zinc, the fundamentals improve, but the macro - risk is large. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8355 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 1.47%, the position decreased by 18,817 lots to 201,800 lots (- 8.53%), and the trading volume decreased by 11,006 lots to 172,049 lots (- 6.01%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 171 million to 3.037 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 22,313 lots (+ 24) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the number of weekly industrial silicon furnaces in operation is flat compared to the previous period. With the year - on - year decline in electricity prices in the southwest region, enterprises' willingness to resume production increases, and there is an expectation of increased production in the future. On the demand side, the polysilicon industry resumed work in March, and the monthly production capacity is gradually released, with the expected monthly output approaching 90,000 tons; the output of the organic silicon industry is stable, and the price trend is stable. The price of aluminum alloy decreased slightly, but the industry's start - up rate increased to 59.5%, reaching a new high this year [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to whether subsequent measures such as coordinated market control and joint price stabilization will be introduced after last week's meeting. The organic silicon industry will hold a meeting in Jinan on April 2 to discuss production cuts and price increases. In the short term, although the market pays attention to the support level increase brought by energy costs, the high - level hedging pressure is obvious. It is expected that the market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the range of 8100 - 8900 [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan per ton (- 14,420), with a closing price decrease of 8.40% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Yesterday, a large amount of funds flowed out, and the market was under pressure to fall. The expectation of the continuation of the US - Iran war weakened, and the concern about the shortage of diesel supply in Australia affecting lithium ore mining is expected to ease. The export ban in Zimbabwe has no progress, and its supply disturbance will gradually be reflected in mid - to late April. However, the expectation of the strengthening of the preference for new - energy vehicles and energy - storage consumption due to oil price fluctuations remains unchanged, and the trend of the weekly demand recovery at the power end is clear. The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is $2360 per ton, an increase of $25 per ton compared to the previous day, and the SMM electric carbon price is 163,000 (- 1500) yuan per ton. On the supply side, the weekly output is 24,814 tons, a month - on - month increase of 628 tons, due to the recovery of the spodumene production line. SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% compared to January. On the demand side, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March is 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% compared to January; the production schedule of ternary materials in March is 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% compared to January. In terms of inventory, the short - term weekly inventory shows a slight accumulation. The export ban of lithium ore in Zimbabwe has no progress, and it is expected that the supply gap of at least one month will be gradually reflected in mid - to late April. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the policy progress in Zimbabwe. The sample inventory is 99,489 tons, an increase of 616 tons in inventory, among which the smelting link has an inventory increase of 724 tons, the downstream link has an inventory increase of 552 tons, and the trader link has an inventory decrease of 660 tons. The total inventory days are 27.9 (+ 0.2) days. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 11,318 (- 19,746) lots. Pay attention to the growth rate slope of new warehouse receipts after centralized cancellation. The funds precipitated in the market are 30.1 (- 3.78) billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: With supply disturbances and a clear trend of demand recovery, it is expected to oscillate widely. Buy on dips at the lower edge of the range and be cautious about chasing high [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 35,200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1350 yuan per ton compared to the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 3.69%, the position decreased by 128 lots to 34,456 lots (- 0.37%), and the trading volume decreased by 5768 lots to 10,763 lots (- 34.89%). The variety's precipitated funds decreased by 16 million to 1.758 billion, and the warehouse receipt volume today was 11,030 lots (+ 10) [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the weekly polysilicon output is flat compared to the previous period, and the month - on - month increase in industry inventory has significantly narrowed. The production schedule in April is basically flat compared to the previous month. On the demand side, the prices of downstream photovoltaic - related products still continue to decline, but the decline rate is gradually slowing down. The expected production schedule of components in April is reduced by 7.26GW month - on - month. From January to February 2026, the newly - installed domestic photovoltaic capacity decreased by 17.71% year - on - year, with an average monthly installed capacity of 16GW, showing a stable performance. The export data of battery cells and components in February decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year trends were divergent. The component exports to Europe increased slightly year - on - year [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The spot price of polysilicon has been continuously declining this week, and the market sentiment is weak. The current market still needs to fully digest the negative factors such as the weakening of the spot market. Coupled with the relatively high volatility of the variety, it is recommended to focus on tracking the actual downstream procurement situation and the transaction order price in the short term, and mainly wait and see in operation [3]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There is news that the Iranian president wants to end the war under security guarantees, but the authenticity of the news is to be verified. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the spot is still traded at a high premium. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing rapidly every day, and the London structure is 375 dollars contango [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest waiting and seeing [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 rebar contract closed at 3124 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The building material inventory in the Gangyin caliber decreased by 0.3% to 6.63 million tons month - on - month, and was basically flat last week. The rebar out - bound volume in Hangzhou on the weekend was 68,000 tons, compared with 76,000 tons last week; the inventory was 1.548 million tons, compared with 1.522 million tons last week and 1.127 million tons in the same period last year. The building material demand has marginally improved but is still slightly weaker year - on - year. Fortunately, the supply has decreased year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The plate demand has marginally stabilized, and the direct and indirect exports remain at a relatively high level. The inventory depletion speed is at a neutral level in the same period of history. The steel mill profit is poor, and the production increase space is limited. The steel spot price is a bit weak in following the rise, and the futures discount has narrowed [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of rebar 2605 cautiously or choose the opportunity to exit. The reference range for RB05 is 3100 - 3160 [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 iron ore contract closed at 815 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron ore arrival volume increased by 1.237 million tons to 22.802 million tons month - on - month, and the shipment volume decreased by 6.72 million tons to 24.724 million tons month - on - month. The iron ore supply - demand margin remains stable. The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coking plant proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope is limited. The supply side conforms to the seasonal law. The furnace charge inventory of steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days remain above the historical average level. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 24 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory in ports is low, and there is a certain structural contradiction. The iron ore maintains a forward - discount structure but is significantly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 800 - 830 [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 coking coal contract closed at 1147.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 43.5 yuan per ton compared to the previous day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The molten iron output in the Steel Union caliber increased by 30,000 tons to 22.82 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3% year - on - year. The coke proposed a price increase, but it has not been implemented yet. The steel mill profit is poor, and the subsequent blast furnace production increase slope may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end maintains a high level, and the inventory in each link is differentiated. The port and mine - mouth inventories are high, while the inventories in other links are low, and the overall inventory level is neutral. The 05 contract futures have a premium over the spot, and the forward - premium structure is maintained, with the futures valuation being high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly wait and see. Hold the short position of coking coal 2605 cautiously. The reference range for JM05 is 1120 - 1170 [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose because the US soybean planting area intention was slightly lower than the market expectation [6]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, it is loose in the near - term, and there is an expectation of increased production capacity for new US soybean crops in the far - term. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and the exports conform to the seasonality. In general, the expectation of global supply - demand looseness remains unchanged [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the looseness suppresses the price. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and crude oil; in China, it also follows the cost side. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the arrival volume [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price declined, and the corn spot price decreased in the Northeast and slightly increased in the North China [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Currently, the grain - selling progress exceeds 80%, but the progress is slow. The mentality in the producing areas, especially in North China, has loosened, and the enthusiasm for selling grain has increased. The policy wheat auction volume has increased, and both the transaction rate and the premium have declined. Coupled with the good growth of new - season wheat seedlings, the wheat price has weakened. After the spot price rose to a high level, the expectation of policy regulation has increased, and the spot price is expected to adjust weakly. Pay attention to the auction situation of the minimum - purchase - price wheat and the changes in the purchase - and - sale rhythm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since the transaction rate and premium of the wheat auction have both declined, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. White Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 0

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are in a sideways consolidation on the weekly line. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - Polysilicon futures are in a downward channel on the weekly line, and the price is close to the sensitive bottom position of past market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [27][29]. - Lithium carbonate futures are in a wide - range volatile operation. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 200,000 yuan, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][45]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The industrial silicon futures are in a sideways consolidation on the weekly line. The spot price of industrial silicon was stable last week. As of March 27, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton. The main force has a relatively obvious bearish attitude [7]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The industrial silicon futures are in an oscillating operation. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [11][13][16]. 3.2 Polysilicon Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The polysilicon futures are in a downward channel on the weekly line. The spot price of polysilicon decreased last week. As of March 27, the price of polysilicon (compact material) was 39 yuan/kg, and the price of polysilicon (re - feed material) was 41 yuan/kg. The main force has no obvious long or short bias [27][29]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The polysilicon futures are in a downward channel, and the price is close to the sensitive bottom position of past market conditions. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [32][33][38]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The lithium carbonate futures are in a wide - range volatile operation. The spot price of lithium carbonate increased slightly last week. As of March 27, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 154,250 yuan/ton, and the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 157,350 yuan/ton. The main force shows a strong bearish sentiment [44][45]. - **Mid - line Strategy Suggestion**: The lithium carbonate futures have a relatively large fluctuation range. The main contract is expected to oscillate between 120,000 - 200,000 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Related Data**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventories are at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [48][49][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, this week's 05 contract showed an upward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 8,550 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 8,625 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.88%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase but remain at a low level, while demand recovery will also be at a low level, and cost support will rise. The disk is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, this week's 05 contract showed a downward trend, with the opening price on Monday at 38,180 yuan/ton and the closing price on Friday at 35,680 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6.54%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to increase, and the overall demand will show a continuous decline. Cost support will remain stable. The disk is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 40,760 tons, a 1.17% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 44.46%, a 6.44 - percentage - point increase from last month's 38.02% [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 68,000 tons, a 1.44% decrease. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory was 332,000 tons, higher than the historical average. In the organic silicon sector, the inventory was 58,500 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production profit was 2,430 yuan/ton. In the aluminum alloy sector, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 44,900 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat. The cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 560,000 tons, a 1.27% increase. The sample enterprise inventory was 191,100 tons, a 3.38% decrease. The main port inventory was 134,000 tons, a 1.47% decrease [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 19,400 tons, a 2.10% increase. The predicted production schedule for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to last month [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 11.38 GW, a 3.39% decrease. The battery cell output in February was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% decrease. The component output in February was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% decrease. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state, while the production of battery cells and components is in a profitable state [6]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 310 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 332,000 tons, a 3.48% decrease, at a historical high [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The document shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [13][14]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [16][17][18]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions [19][20][22]. - **Cost**: It includes the historical trends of main - producing area electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices, as well as the cost trends of 421/553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [24][25][28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [31][32][35]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [37][38][40]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, including waste aluminum recycling, import of aluminum crushed materials, and the production and sales of automobiles and aluminum alloy wheels [49][50][55]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [59][60][63]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **SI Main Contract**: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81][82]. - **PS Main Contract**: This week, the main 05 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish oscillatory adjustment next week [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The cost support in the Xinjiang region remained stable, with the cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon at 9,769.7 yuan/ton. The social inventory increased by 1%, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 27%. The main port inventory decreased by 1.47%. - Demand: Last week, the demand for industrial silicon was 69,000 tons, a 47% week - on - week increase. The silicon wafer production was in a loss state, while the battery cell and component production were in a profitable state. The organic silicon inventory was at a low level, with a production profit of 2,503 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 68.6%, remaining flat week - on - week but lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was at a high level, and the regenerative aluminum开工 rate increased by 1.5% to 59%. - Expectation: With an increase in supply scheduling and a low - level demand recovery, and rising cost support, the industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,645 - 8,825 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for March is expected to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78 GW, a 1.66% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% week - on - week decrease. Currently, the silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The scheduled production for March is 49.01 GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month. The battery cell production in February was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% month - on - month decrease. The external sales factory inventory of battery cells last week was 6.79 GW, a 16.66% week - on - week increase, and the current production is in a profitable state. The scheduled production for March is 46.36 GW, a 24.99% increase. The component production in February was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% month - on - month decrease. The expected component production for March is 41.39 GW, a 41.26% increase. The domestic monthly inventory decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory increased by 12.30%. Currently, the component production is in a profitable state. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,060 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 310 yuan/ton. - Expectation: With continuous increase in supply scheduling and overall demand showing a continuous decline, and weakening cost support, the polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,505 - 36,575 yuan/ton [8][9]. Overall - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production suspension and reduction. - Bearish factors: Slow post - holiday demand recovery and a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon: Analyzes the supply, demand, cost, inventory, and other aspects of industrial silicon, and provides an expected price fluctuation range [6]. - Polysilicon: Analyzes the supply, demand, cost, and other aspects of polysilicon, and provides an expected price fluctuation range [8][9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial Silicon: Presents data on the price, inventory, production, and开工 rate of industrial silicon, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of its downstream organic silicon and aluminum alloy [14]. - Polysilicon: Presents data on the price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15]. Other Sections - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Displays the trends of the basis and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [17]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Shows the inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Presents the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [24]. - Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trends: Displays the trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and reducing agent prices in the main production areas [29]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Shows the cost trends of 421 and 553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [32]. - Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the weekly supply - demand balance data of industrial silicon [36]. - Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of industrial silicon [39]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends: Displays the price, production, and capacity utilization trends of DMC [42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Downstream Price Trends: Shows the price trends of 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [44]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Import - Export and Inventory Trends: Presents the import - export and inventory data of DMC [49]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation: Displays the price, supply, and import - export data of aluminum alloy [54]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends: Presents the inventory and production data of aluminum alloy ingots [57]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs): Shows the production and sales data of automobiles and the export data of aluminum alloy wheel hubs [60]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends: Displays the cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends of polysilicon [64]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of polysilicon [67]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer Trends: Shows the price, production, inventory, and demand data of silicon wafers [70]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Battery Cell Trends: Displays the price, production, inventory, and export data of battery cells [73]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Component Trends: Presents the price, inventory, production, and export data of photovoltaic components [76]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Accessory Trends: Shows the price, production, and import - export data of photovoltaic accessories [79]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm): Displays the cost and profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends: Presents the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic power station grid - connected capacity [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The market is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, especially the situation between the US and Iran [1][6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, the international gold price denominated in London gold fell 2.79% to $4379.82 per ounce. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by ten days. Domestic gold ETFs had a small outflow of 0.1 tons. It is recommended to consider re - laying out long positions as the sharp drop in gold prices digests previous negative factors [1]. - **Silver**: The international silver price fell 4.45% to $68.059 per ounce. It is suggested that previous short positions gradually take profits as the silver market follows the gold market's fluctuations [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated weakly. The market is focused on the Middle East situation. The supply of copper ore remains tight. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.57% compared to the previous trading day. The supply side maintains high - load production, and the demand side has a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.08% compared to the previous trading day. The supply side's operating capacity is relatively stable, and the demand side's electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertain Middle East situation and the unclear implementation of Guinea's mining policy [1][2]. - **Zinc and Lead**: The zinc and lead main contracts closed at 23070 yuan/ton and 16460 yuan/ton respectively. The lead market is affected by overseas declines, but the loss of recycled lead and downstream buying on dips may support the price. The zinc LME inventory is low, and the domestic social inventory is high but showing signs of destocking. For lead, pay attention to the destocking situation; for zinc, it is recommended to wait and see or trade high - sell and low - buy [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 05 contract closed at 8735 yuan/ton. The supply side has a decrease in the number of open furnaces, but there is an expectation of increased production in Sichuan. The demand side has a recovery in the polysilicon and organic silicon industries, and the aluminum alloy industry's start - up rate has reached a new high. The price is expected to oscillate between 8100 - 8900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2605 closed at 157,200 yuan/ton. The supply side has an increase in production, and the demand side has an increase in the production of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials. Pay attention to the new registration speed of warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation at the end of March and the production schedule in April [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The main 05 contract closed at 35540 yuan/ton. The supply side's inventory pressure has eased marginally, and the demand side's product prices are declining but at a slower pace. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on downstream procurement and order prices [3]. - **Tin**: The tin price continued to be weak. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the downstream consumption is strong. It is recommended to wait and see due to the non - resonance between the macro and micro aspects [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean price changed little. The global supply is expected to be abundant, and the US soybean has strong crushing demand. The US soybean may enter an oscillation, and the domestic market follows the cost side. Pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment [4]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price declined, and the spot price mostly fell. The grain - selling progress is about 80% but slow. Policy wheat auctions have increased, and the wheat price is weakening. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5441 yuan/ton. Due to the rise in international crude oil prices, there is an expectation of a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures price continued to rise, and the international crude oil futures price oscillated strongly. The US cotton export sales increased, and the Indian cotton yarn export also increased. It is recommended to buy on dips in the price range of 15100 - 15500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures price rebounded, and the spot price rose. The demand for Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking has increased, but the overall supply is sufficient. The futures price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures price was weak, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply is strong, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures and spot prices are expected to be weak [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side will see a significant reduction in domestic supply due to the non - commissioning of new devices in the first half of the year and the planned reduction of production by some existing devices. The demand side is improving. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [6]. - **PVC**: The V05 contract closed at 5650 yuan/ton. The supply side has a decline in production, and the demand side is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to do a long - short spread [6][7]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 05 contract closed at 3202 yuan/ton. The supply side has been affected by the Middle East conflict, and the port inventory is decreasing. In the short term, the price is dominated by geopolitical factors and shows an "oscillating - strong, high - volatility" pattern [7]. - **Glass**: The fg05 contract closed at 1035 yuan/ton. The supply side is reducing production, and the demand side is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. - **PP**: The PP main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side has a reduction in new device commissioning in the short term, and the demand side is improving. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium - long term, it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price fluctuated due to the US - Iran situation. The conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on global oil supply. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the oil price may continue to rise; if the situation eases, the oil price may reverse [7][8]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly. The supply side's pure benzene and styrene inventories are decreasing, and the demand side's downstream enterprises are improving but with profit decline. In the short term, it follows the crude oil price; in the medium - long term, the supply - demand situation may weaken [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa05 contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton. The supply side's production capacity is increasing, and the demand side has a slight increase in photovoltaic glass production and a reduction in float glass production. It is recommended to wait and see [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides an in - depth analysis of the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, including supply, demand, cost, inventory, and price trends. It also offers expectations for the future price ranges of industrial silicon 2605 and polysilicon 2605 [3][8]. - The main logic for the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, such as cost - rising support and slow post - holiday demand recovery [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The supply production schedule is expected to increase, but it remains at a low level [3][6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week. The demand recovery is at a low level. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers are in a loss state, while battery cells and components are in a profitable state. The organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,503 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 68.6% (flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average). The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The cost support increases during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On March 25th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 380 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 553,000 tons, a 0.18% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week. The main port inventory is 136,000 tons, a 1.49% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases [6]. - **Expectation**: Industrial silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,680 - 8,860 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 19,000 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous week. The production schedule for March is predicted to be 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11.78GW, a 1.66% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% decrease compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for March is 49.01GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month. The battery cell production in February was 37.09GW, a 10.49% decrease compared to the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 6.79GW, a 16.66% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a profitable state. The production schedule for March is 46.36GW, a 24.99% increase compared to the previous month. The component production in February was 29.3GW, a 16.76% decrease compared to the previous month. The expected component production in March is 41.39GW, a 41.26% increase compared to the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease compared to the previous month, and the European monthly inventory is 38.41GW, a 12.30% increase compared to the previous month. Currently, component production is in a profitable state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 40,260 yuan/ton, and the production profit is - 1,260 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On March 25th, the price of N - type dense material was 39,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,750 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, a 3.64% decrease compared to the previous week, and it is at a high level in the same period of history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closes below MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position decreases [8]. - **Expectation**: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 35,735 - 37,765 [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The report shows the price changes of different contracts of industrial silicon futures, spot prices, basis, inventory, production, and other data [14]. Polysilicon - It presents the price changes of different contracts of polysilicon futures, prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products, as well as inventory, production, and export data [15]. 3. Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon [17][18]. 4. Inventory - It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, as well as the number of registered warrants [20][21][22]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - It shows the historical trends of the weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and the operating rate of sample enterprises [24][25][26]. 6. Component Cost Trends - It shows the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in the main production areas of industrial silicon [29][30]. 7. Cost - Sample Region Trends - It shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 silicon in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [32][33][34]. 8. Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [36][39][40]. 9. Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Price and Production Trends**: It shows the historical trends of DMC capacity utilization, profit, cost, production, and price [42][43]. - **Downstream Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 [44][45][46][47]. - **Import - Export and Inventory Trends**: It shows the historical trends of DMC import, export, and inventory [49][50][52]. 10. Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply Situation**: It shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [54][55]. - **Inventory and Production Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [57][58]. - **Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs)**: It shows the historical trends of automobile monthly production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [60][61]. 11. Downstream - Polysilicon - **Fundamental Trends**: It shows the historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [64][65]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon, including consumption, export, import, supply, and balance [67][68]. - **Silicon Wafer Trends**: It shows the historical trends of silicon wafer price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export [70][71]. - **Battery Cell Trends**: It shows the historical trends of single - crystal P/N type battery cell price, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery external sales factory weekly inventory, photovoltaic battery operating rate, and battery cell export [73][74]. - **Photovoltaic Component Trends**: It shows the historical trends of component price, domestic and European photovoltaic component inventory, monthly production, and component export [76][77]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: It shows the historical trends of photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import - export, photovoltaic glass monthly production, export, high - purity quartz sand price, and solder strip import - export [79][80]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: It shows the cost and profit trends of silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components [82]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [83][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, especially the situation between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It affects risk preferences, inflation expectations, and the prices of various assets [2][4]. - The global economic situation is complex, with concerns about inflation, recession, and the impact of central bank policies. The Fed's hawkish stance and high oil prices have led to changes in market expectations and trading strategies [4][38]. - Different industries and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Some are supported by fundamentals, while others are under pressure due to various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and changes in demand [13][15][33]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **行情资讯**: News includes Iran's stance on the war, potential impacts of the Iran - US conflict on the global economy, corporate projects, and business suspensions [2]. - **基差年化比率**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific basis annualized ratios [3]. - **策略观点**: The US - Iran conflict affects global risk preferences, and the hawkish statements of Powell and European Central Bank officials have led to a retreat in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the change in the war situation and control risks [4]. Treasury Bonds - **行情资讯**: The prices of different treasury bond contracts have certain changes. There are also news about power statistics and shipping business resumption. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net injection of funds [5]. - **策略观点**: The economic data in January - February improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. The Iran geopolitical conflict and inflation concerns may put pressure on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [8]. Precious Metals - **行情资讯**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and international markets have different trends. There are also relevant policies in Russia and Iran's conditions for ending the war [9]. - **策略观点**: Geopolitical conflicts are the core focus of the market. If the conflict eases, gold may regain its upward momentum. However, in the short term, precious metals still face valuation pressure. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **行情资讯**: The copper price rose due to the improvement of market risk sentiment. The LME inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. The spot discount in the East China region expanded, while the spot premium in the Guangdong region increased [12]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East is slightly alleviated but may be repeated. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, but the upward resistance has increased [13]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: The aluminum price fluctuated. The trading volume and inventory of relevant contracts changed. The spot discount in the East China region narrowed [14]. - **策略观点**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, but the market sentiment is still volatile. The overseas supply of aluminum is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile in the short term [15]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: The zinc price declined. The inventory and basis of zinc in domestic and international markets have specific data [16][17]. - **策略观点**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation. The high oil price has put pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and the zinc price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking, Fed policies, and geopolitical conflicts [17]. Lead - **行情资讯**: The lead price rose. The inventory and basis of lead in domestic and international markets have specific data [18]. - **策略观点**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term oscillation range. The downstream buying and the low operating rate of recycling smelting enterprises support the spot price. However, the high oil price and the inflow of overseas lead ingots may put pressure on the lead price, and the price volatility is increasing [18]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: The nickel price declined. The spot price and cost of nickel have specific data [19]. - **策略观点**: In the short term, the nickel price is expected to be weak due to the impact of the geopolitical conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance. In the medium term, the supply - demand situation of nickel is improving, and the price has strong support at the bottom. It is recommended to operate within a range [20]. Tin - **行情资讯**: The tin price rose. The production and inventory of tin have specific data [21]. - **策略观点**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, and the demand is in a weak recovery. Considering the geopolitical disturbance and the decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the tin price is expected to be weak [22]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The price of lithium carbonate increased. The spot and futures prices have specific data [23]. - **策略观点**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The downstream restocking provides support. The supply stability is a concern. Attention should be paid to the changes in positions, industry events, and spot premiums [24]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: The alumina price declined. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [25]. - **策略观点**: The bauxite export policy in Guinea may lead to an increase in ore prices. The short - term supply of alumina is tight, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see [26]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: The stainless steel price rose. The spot price, basis, and inventory have specific data [27]. - **策略观点**: The stainless steel price is supported by the increase in raw material costs and policy disturbances. The market supply is still loose, and the demand release is weak. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume, inventory, and price difference have specific data [29]. - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is supported [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **行情资讯**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices have specific data [32]. - **策略观点**: The steel market is in a weak balance state. The demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations [33]. Iron Ore - **行情资讯**: The iron ore price declined. The futures price, positions, and spot price have specific data [34]. - **策略观点**: The iron ore price was affected by the negotiation news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **行情资讯**: The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [36][37]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported to some extent. The short - term supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. It is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see in the short term, and be optimistic about coking coal in the long term [38]. Glass and Soda Ash - **行情资讯**: The prices of glass and soda ash declined. The spot prices, inventory, and positions have specific data [39][41]. - **策略观点**: The glass market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and is expected to be volatile. The soda ash market has a loose supply - demand pattern and is expected to be in a low - level wide - range oscillation [40][41]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of manganese silicon rose slightly, and the price of ferrosilicon declined slightly. The spot prices, basis, and technical analysis have specific data [42]. - **策略观点**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment. The black sector may be supported. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is better. Attention should be paid to the cost and supply - side factors [43][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **行情资讯**: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon rose. The trading volume, inventory, and spot prices have specific data [47][49]. - **策略观点**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile due to the support of cost and weak demand improvement. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to find the bottom through oscillation [48][50]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **行情资讯**: The rubber price rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber have specific data [53][54]. - **策略观点**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and take quick profits. Options can be configured, and hedging positions can be held [56]. Crude Oil - **行情资讯**: The prices of crude oil and related refined products declined [57]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish strategies for crude oil, do long - short spreads for different oil varieties, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [58]. Methanol - **行情资讯**: The methanol price changed. The MTO profit also changed [59]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to take profits at high prices and do long - short spreads for MTO profits [60]. Urea - **行情资讯**: The urea price changed. The regional spot prices and basis have specific data [61]. - **策略观点**: It is recommended to short urea due to the high - level start - up in the first quarter and the limited export quota. Pay attention to the short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **行情资讯**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory have specific data [63]. - **策略观点**: The profit of non - integrated styrene is neutral to high, and the valuation repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [65]. PVC - **行情资讯**: The PVC price declined. The cost, production, demand, and inventory have specific data [66]. - **策略观点**: The short - term fundamentals are affected by the Iran issue. The price is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **行情资讯**: The ethylene glycol price declined. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost have specific data [68]. - **策略观点**: The industry is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [70]. PTA - **行情资讯**: The PTA price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and processing fee have specific data [71]. - **策略观点**: The PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72]. p - Xylene - **行情资讯**: The p - xylene price declined. The production, demand, inventory, and valuation have specific data [73]. - **策略观点**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - **行情资讯**: The PE price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [75]. - **策略观点**: The PE valuation has downward space. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **行情资讯**: The PP price declined. The spot price, basis, production, inventory, and demand have specific data [78]. - **策略观点**: The cost pressure is relieved, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. The long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost side to the production mismatch [79]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **行情资讯**: The pig price declined. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [81]. - **策略观点**: The supply is concentrated, and the demand is weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [82]. Eggs - **行情资讯**: The egg price was mostly stable. The prices in different regions and the market situation have specific data [83]. - **策略观点**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term spot price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for the far - month contracts [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **行情资讯**: There are forecasts for the planting areas of corn and soybeans in the US, export data, and inventory data [85]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation and the relaxation of soybean import inspection standards are negative for the meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [86]. Oils and Fats - **行情资讯**: There are policies and production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia [87][89]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the oil prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [90]. Sugar - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of sugar [93][94]. - **策略观点**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is negative for the sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [95]. Cotton - **行情资讯**: There are import data, production data, and consumption data of cotton [91]. - **策略观点**: The new import quota is negative for the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term and positive for the US cotton price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is significantly influenced by geopolitical events, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which impacts the prices of various commodities. - Different commodities have distinct supply - demand situations, and investment strategies vary accordingly. Some are recommended for long - position layout, while others suggest short - position exit, temporary observation, or high - selling and low - buying. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices (in London) rose 0.74% to $4505.31/oz, domestic gold prices also increased slightly. International silver prices rose 0.07% to $71.228/oz [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The prospect of US - Iran cease - fire negotiations affects prices. The US import price increase and changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions are also important factors. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider re - laying out long positions in gold; gradually take profits on previous short positions in silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The focus is on the Middle East situation. The supply of copper ore remains tight. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest temporary observation [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased 0.99% to 23,860 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations due to the uncertainty of the Middle East conflict [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased 1.69% to 2,963 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity is relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the core driver possibly concentrated on Guinea's mining policy [3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: Zinc and lead main contracts had price changes on March 25, and there were also changes in inventory [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The non - ferrous sector rebounded from oversold conditions. The lead market has factors affecting supply and demand, and the zinc market has inventory and production factors. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, observe the inventory reduction situation and consider going long if the social inventory continues to decline; for zinc, the price is expected to be weak, and it's recommended to observe or trade with high - selling and low - buying [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract price increased, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, etc [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has an increase in the number of open furnaces, and the demand side has different trends in various industries. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to relevant meetings. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,100 - 8,900 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The LC2605 contract price increased 4.04% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in supply, demand, and inventory, and the market is affected by the situation in Zimbabwe's lithium mines. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on inventory data and new registration speed of warehouse receipts. The short - term market is in a long - short game [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract price increased, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, etc [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been marginally alleviated, and the demand side has a complex situation. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the actual downstream procurement and transaction prices, and mainly adopt an observation strategy [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Focus on the Middle East situation, the supply shortage is slightly alleviated, and the demand side has active procurement. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest observation due to the susceptibility to liquidity shocks [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand and production increased, the market transaction recovered, and there are certain supply - demand and valuation situations. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe, and hold short positions in rebar 2605 cautiously [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in arrival and shipment, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in iron - making water production, and the supply - demand and inventory situations are complex. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe, and hold short positions in coking coal 2605 cautiously [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The global supply is expected to be abundant, and the demand has different characteristics. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans may enter an oscillatory phase. Pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices declined, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress and policy factors affect the price. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to rise, and Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated strongly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in planting area expectations and export data. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range reference of 15,100 - 15,500 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market continued to decline [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand has increased in the short term. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally suggest observation, and pay attention to crude oil and production [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There are factors of demand boost and sufficient supply. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices continued to decline [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong and demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract decreased slightly, and the basis strengthened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to decrease significantly in the short term, and demand is improving. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; go short on rallies in the medium term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price decreased 2.3% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Production increased, demand is weak, and inventory is starting to decline. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest a positive spread strategy [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract price decreased 1.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is weak, and inventory is declining. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying glass and selling soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract decreased slightly, and the basis strengthened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is reduced in the short term, and demand is improving. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; go short on rallies in the medium - long term [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices first declined and then rose [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict has a significant impact on supply and export. - **Trading Strategy**: Oil prices may continue to rise if the strait is blocked, and may reverse if the situation eases [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the demand side has a negative feedback. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; the supply - demand situation will weaken after the conflict eases [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa05 contract price decreased 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest observation [10].