Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the photovoltaic glass market is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with short-term stability expected due to pre-holiday inventory demand [1] - In the short term (1 month), the demand for inventory before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to support the market, leading to stable photovoltaic glass prices [1] - In the medium term (2 months to year-end), if the traditional peak season for photovoltaic installations in Q4 is maintained, prices may remain stable; however, if demand weakens and production capacity is released, there could be significant downward pressure on prices [1] Group 2 - Since the second half of 2024, photovoltaic glass prices have been declining, falling below the industry's breakeven cost, resulting in increased losses for companies [2] - Following the implementation of anti-involution policies and voluntary capacity reduction in the industry, along with increased procurement inquiries from downstream component companies, the photovoltaic glass market has shown signs of recovery since August [2] - As of this week, the mainstream price for 2.0mm photovoltaic glass is 12-13 yuan per square meter, and for 3.2mm glass, it is 20-21 yuan per square meter, reflecting significant increases of 28.2% and 15.5% respectively compared to late July prices [2]

短期（ 1 个月）：国庆和中秋节前的终端备货需求会对市场形成一定支撑，光伏玻璃价 格有望持稳运行。据了解，行业库存持续降低，部分企业对后市仍较为乐观，可能会小幅继 续推涨。 2024 年下半年以来，光伏玻璃价格一路下行并跌破行业盈亏成本线，各企业亏损加剧。 在反内卷政策落地和行业自发去产能等因素影响下，叠加下游组件企业的采购询价订单有所 增加， 8 月份至今，光伏玻璃市场明显回暖。光伏玻璃价格较 7 月低点，涨幅较为明显。具 体来看， 8 月之前，光伏玻璃市场在供大于求状态下，价格承压下行。 8 月起，光伏玻璃库 存开始去库，价格触底回升。截至本周， 2.0mm 光伏玻璃主流价格 12-13 元 / 平方米， 3.2mm 光伏玻璃主流成交 20-21 元 / 平方 米，相比于 7 月底 2.0mm 光伏玻璃 9.5-10 元 / 平方米， 3.2mm 光伏玻璃 17-18.5 元 / 平方米， 2.0mm 和 3.2mm 光伏玻璃价格 涨幅达到 28.2% 和 15.5% 。 中期（ 2 个月 - 年底）：若四季度光伏装机传统旺季维持，以及冬季天然气价格上涨推 高企业生产成本，价格有望维持。但若需求减弱，叠加 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry experienced a surge in demand due to the "430" and "531" policies, leading to a recovery in the photovoltaic glass sector and a notable increase in prices [1] - Starting from June, the demand for photovoltaic glass weakened as the rush for installation ended, resulting in inventory accumulation and price declines [1] - Despite leading companies initiating production cuts, the overall reduction in photovoltaic glass production has been limited, not reaching the targeted 30% reduction, while inventory levels remain high [1] Group 2 - The prices of photovoltaic glass have significantly decreased, with 2.0mm and 3.2mm glass prices halving from their peaks of 32 yuan/m² and 40 yuan/m² respectively [2] - The current inventory levels in the glass industry are approximately 3-4 weeks, which may hinder price recovery if demand continues to decline [2] - If demand improves and production cut targets are met, there is potential for price increases in photovoltaic glass, especially if prices in upstream segments like silicon materials rise [2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a significant price decline due to a combination of reduced demand and increased supply, with expectations of continued pressure on prices in the short term, but potential for recovery in the long term [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - After the May Day holiday, photovoltaic glass prices began a new downward trend, with mainstream prices for 2.0mm glass dropping to 12-13 RMB/sqm and 3.2mm glass to 21-22 RMB/sqm [1]. - The price reduction is substantial, with some transactions for 2.0mm and 3.2mm glass falling below 12 RMB/sqm and 21 RMB/sqm respectively [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in photovoltaic glass prices is primarily attributed to the end of the installation rush and a noticeable decrease in terminal demand as the "430/531" deadlines pass [1]. - Supply is increasing due to the commissioning of multiple new production lines and a decrease in raw material prices, such as soda ash [1]. - Downstream component manufacturers are showing low purchasing willingness, leading to a dominant trend of price negotiation focused on reductions [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - In the short term, the photovoltaic glass market is expected to remain weak due to oversupply and declining costs of raw materials like soda ash and natural gas [2]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for global demand for photovoltaic glass is positive, with expectations of growth by 2025 [2]. - The introduction of new energy storage policies and the implementation of integrated solar storage projects may create structural demand growth for photovoltaic glass in the second half of the year, potentially leading to a "first drop, then rise" price trend [2].