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信心修复驱动,多晶硅价格强势反弹
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, polysilicon shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center of polysilicon is optimistic as backward production capacity is expected to be gradually cleared. One can consider laying out long positions on dips or obtaining premium income by selling out - of - the - money put options [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - From November 12th to 13th, the polysilicon futures rebounded, with the price rising from over 51,000 yuan/ton to over 54,000 yuan/ton. After the photovoltaic industry association refuted the "reserve short - selling" rumor, market confidence was restored, and the polysilicon price rebounded rapidly [3] Fundamental Situation - In the third quarter, the monthly supply of polysilicon rose to over 130,000 tons. In November, due to the dry season in the southwest and production cuts in Yunnan and Sichuan, the supply is expected to drop rapidly to below 120,000 tons. On the demand side, terminal installation is still under pressure, and the production schedules of cells and components have declined since October. The production of silicon rods has remained high but is expected to decline, and silicon wafer prices have loosened. However, several silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, with some wafer prices increasing [4] Summary and Strategy - Polysilicon is in a policy window period, and the price fluctuates greatly. Although the terminal demand is weak and the fundamental support is limited, there are still policy expectations and strong price - support intentions from upstream enterprises. One should pay attention to the price changes of polysilicon and silicon wafers and policy implementation. Be wary of market pull - backs if spot prices weaken or policies fall short of expectations [5]