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华创证券:光伏行业基本面筑底 盈利修复可期
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 03:33
Core Viewpoint - The surge in installations driven by domestic demand is expected to lead to a doubling of installed capacity in the first half of 2025, with a slowdown in growth anticipated in the second half, but overall growth is expected to continue despite a high base [1][2]. Domestic Market Insights - In the first seven months of 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations reached 223.25 GW, a year-on-year increase of 81% [2]. - The total new photovoltaic installations in China for 2025 are projected to reach between 270-300 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 3% [2]. Global Market Insights - The global new photovoltaic installations are expected to reach 570-630 GW in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of about 13% [2]. - Emerging markets such as India, the Middle East, and Latin America are experiencing rapid growth in demand, while traditional markets in Europe and the US are maturing [2]. Industry Performance - In the first half of 2025, the core photovoltaic sector reported revenues of 391.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 was -7.34 billion yuan, indicating a worsening loss compared to the previous year [3]. - The gross profit margins across various segments are under pressure, with the silicon wafer segment reporting negative margins [3]. Cost and Inventory Management - The overall expense ratio for the photovoltaic sector decreased in the second quarter due to revenue growth, with significant reductions in financial expenses [4]. - Inventory levels in the photovoltaic sector remain high, particularly in the silicon material segment, despite a decrease in inventory amounts for most segments [5]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is gradually stabilizing, with expectations of improved profitability driven by policy adjustments and supply-demand improvements [6]. - Key companies to watch include Tongwei Co., Longi Green Energy, and Foster, particularly in the silicon material and integrated component sectors [6]. - New technology advancements, especially in BC mass production and low-cost metal paste, are also highlighted as potential growth areas [6].