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京东集团-SW(09618.HK)2025年三季报点评:Q3营收超预期增长 利润短期承压
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-19 21:34
Core Insights - In Q3 2025, JD Group achieved revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The company's non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 5.8 billion yuan, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1] JD Retail - JD Retail generated revenue of 250.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, with operating profit of 14.8 billion yuan, up 27.6% [1] - The electronics and home appliances category experienced a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from trade-in programs, but maintained its leading position through supply chain advantages [1] - The daily necessities category saw revenue growth of 18.8%, approximately four times the industry average, with supermarkets maintaining double-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [1] - The number of active users surpassed 700 million in October, with a significant increase in shopping frequency, particularly during the "1111" shopping event [1] JD Logistics - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with adjusted net profit reaching 2.02 billion yuan [1] - Integrated supply chain revenue grew by 45.8%, leading the industry in growth [1] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with localized operations deepening, including the launch of self-operated express services in Saudi Arabia [1] Investment Outlook - The company's penetration rate across all categories is expected to continue increasing, with projected revenues of 1,339.9 billion yuan, 1,463.1 billion yuan, and 1,586.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits (non-GAAP) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 29.1 billion yuan, 42.6 billion yuan, and 55.2 billion yuan [1] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12, 8, and 6 for the respective years [1]