Core Insights - In Q3 2025, JD Group achieved revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The company's non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 5.8 billion yuan, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1] JD Retail - JD Retail generated revenue of 250.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 11.4%, with operating profit of 14.8 billion yuan, up 27.6% [1] - The electronics and home appliances category experienced a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from trade-in programs, but maintained its leading position through supply chain advantages [1] - The daily necessities category saw revenue growth of 18.8%, approximately four times the industry average, with supermarkets maintaining double-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [1] - The number of active users surpassed 700 million in October, with a significant increase in shopping frequency, particularly during the "1111" shopping event [1] JD Logistics - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with adjusted net profit reaching 2.02 billion yuan [1] - Integrated supply chain revenue grew by 45.8%, leading the industry in growth [1] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, with localized operations deepening, including the launch of self-operated express services in Saudi Arabia [1] Investment Outlook - The company's penetration rate across all categories is expected to continue increasing, with projected revenues of 1,339.9 billion yuan, 1,463.1 billion yuan, and 1,586.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits (non-GAAP) for 2025-2027 are forecasted to be 29.1 billion yuan, 42.6 billion yuan, and 55.2 billion yuan [1] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12, 8, and 6 for the respective years [1]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q3 2025 revenue reached 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company's retail segment achieved revenue of 250.6 billion RMB, growing 11.4% year-on-year, with operating profit rising 27.6% to 14.8 billion RMB [2]. - New business, including food delivery, saw a significant revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion RMB, up 24.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.02 billion RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 1,339.9 billion RMB, 1,463.1 billion RMB, and 1,586.5 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [4][5]. Business Segments - JD Retail's user base surpassed 700 million, with significant growth in shopping frequency during the "11.11" shopping festival, where the number of ordering users increased by 40% and order volume by nearly 60% [2]. - The logistics segment is expanding internationally, with new services launched in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., enhancing JD's integrated supply chain capabilities [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, 8 for 2026, and 6 for 2027 [4][5].

文 | 窄播，作者 | 庞梦圆 这是《窄播Weekly》的第72期，本期我们关注：京东Q3财报及财报体现的其业务逻辑变化。 整体上，Q3财报及电话会呈现出：京东找增长的路径又在发生变化。 具体来讲，集团总营收增速，核心零售业务的收入增速、经营利润率同比都在提升：2025年Q3京东总 营收2991亿元，同比增长14.9%（去年Q3的同比增速为5.1%）。京东零售营收为2505.77亿元，同比增 长11.4%（去年Q3的同比增速为6.1%）；经营利润率5.9%，去年同期为5.2%。 但与此同时，新业务（主要指外卖、京喜自营、海外业务）的收入和支出都在急剧加大：2025年Q3， 京东新业务营收155.92亿元，同比增长213.7%。新业务运营亏损为157.36亿元，去年同期为6.15亿元。 且由于「对新业务的战略投入增加」，集团整体在2025年Q3经营利润为负11 亿元，去年同期为120 亿 元；本季度经营利润率为负 0.4%，去年同期为 4.6%。（后续高管发言则进一步指出：新业务投入中， 即时零售投入在Q3有所收缩，京喜和国际业务的投入在加大。） 综合电话会释放出的信息可以看出，京东的存量零售业务，除了致力于营 ...

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue of 299.1 billion yuan in the latest quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 15% [1] - JD Retail revenue reached 250.6 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, driven by accelerated growth in daily necessities and marketing revenue [1] - The number of active users on the platform exceeded 700 million in October, with over 40% growth in both active user count and shopping frequency [1] Group 2 - Non-GAAP net profit was 5.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Retail operating profit margin improved from 5.2% to 5.9% year-on-year, attributed to an increase in gross margin and a slight decrease in marketing expenses [2] - The company repurchased 1.5 billion USD worth of shares in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 2.8% of the total outstanding shares as of December 31, 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating, with revenue projections for 2025-2027 adjusted to 1,334.9 billion, 1,433.4 billion, and 1,558.7 billion yuan respectively [2] - Adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 are projected to be 30 billion, 41.5 billion, and 57.4 billion yuan respectively, with slight upward adjustments [2] - The company is expected to optimize supply chain efficiency and improve gross margins, enhancing user experience [2]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月15日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 优于大市 2025Q3 点评：日百品类和平台业务快速增长，京东外卖亏损 环比小幅减少 本季度收入增长亮眼：本季度公司实现营业收入 2991 亿元，同比+15%， 分拆看，1）本季度京东零售收入 2506 亿元，同比+11%，收入强劲增长 主要受益于日百和市场营销收入加速增长，我们测算自营收入同比 11%， 其中带电品类收入增速 5%，商超品类收入增速 19%；自营增速环比 Q2 23% 的增速显著降低，主要由于国补高基数影响，且 Q3 多地国补额度用完 对带电品类销售带动减弱。本季度平台活跃用户数以及购物频次均实现 40%以上增长，年度活跃用户在 10 月突破 7 亿；2）京东物流收入 521 亿元，同比+15%；3）新业务收入同比+214%，主要由于京东外卖快速增 长导致。 公司利润：non-GAAP 净利润 58 亿元，non-GAAP 净利率 1.9%，与去年同 期相比下降 3.2pct。其中经调 EBITDA 利润率从 5.8%降至 0.8%。分业务 看，零售经营利润率从去年同期 5.2%提升至 5.9%，我们推测主要由于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant slowdown in revenue growth for its core product categories due to the diminishing impact of national subsidies, while service revenue exceeded expectations [1][2]. Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue reached RMB 299.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, surpassing market expectations by 1.6% [1]. - Product revenue grew by 10.5% year-on-year, with the core category of digital appliances experiencing a notable slowdown, growing only 4.9% due to a high base effect from last year's subsidies [1]. - Daily necessities revenue increased by 18.8% year-on-year, benefiting from cross-selling in the takeaway business [1]. - Service revenue saw a robust growth of 30.8%, driven by advertising and logistics revenue growth of 23.7% and 35.0%, respectively [1]. Profitability and Costs - The overall gross margin for Q3 was 16.9%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Adjusted net profit fell by 56% to RMB 5.8 billion, although it was better than market expectations [2]. - The adjusted net profit margin decreased to 1.9% from 5.1% in the same period last year, primarily due to a 111% increase in marketing expenses for takeaway subsidies, which reached RMB 21.1 billion [2]. - New business revenue nearly doubled year-on-year, with a sequential growth of 11%, driven by delivery income [2]. Business Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 146 / USD 38, adjusting the FY25E revenue forecast to RMB 1,337.7 billion [3]. - The target price corresponds to FY25E/FY26E P/E ratios of 13.2x and 8.0x, respectively [3]. - The company expects continued strong growth in the daily necessities category driven by takeaway services and robust service business performance [3].

Core Insights - JD.com's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 14.9% to 299.1 billion yuan, outperforming both consensus expectations and Huatai's forecast of 13.0% and 14.0% respectively [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.8 billion yuan, down 56.0% year-on-year, but better than consensus and Huatai's forecast of -68% [1] - The retail segment's operating profit exceeded expectations, contributing to the overall performance [1] Retail Performance - JD Retail's total revenue for Q3 2025 was 250.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with operating profit rising by 27.7% to 14.8 billion yuan, surpassing consensus expectations of 13.0% [2] - Revenue from the electronics category grew by 4.9% to 128.6 billion yuan, reflecting the impact of the trade-in program, although high base effects from national subsidies began to show [2] - Daily necessities category revenue increased by 18.8% to 97.5 billion yuan, continuing an upward trend with double-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [2] User Engagement and Efficiency - Active user growth was robust, with a 40% year-on-year increase in Q3 2025, surpassing 700 million annual active users by October 2025 [2] - User purchase frequency also rose by 40%, indicating improved customer engagement [2] - The grocery, fashion, and health categories within daily necessities achieved double-digit revenue growth, expected to continue into Q4 2025 due to enhanced product structure and service quality [2] Delivery Business Insights - JD's delivery service saw a double-digit growth in GMV in Q3 2025, driven by increased order volume and improved order structure [2] - The overall operating loss in the delivery segment narrowed, with average unit economics improving due to better supply-side management and operational efficiency [2] - The synergy between delivery and retail businesses is strengthening, contributing positively to overall profitability [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 30.5 billion, 38.1 billion, and 51.1 billion yuan, reflecting better-than-expected performance in retail and non-operating income [3] - The valuation window has been rolled forward to 2026, with a target price of $51.04 per ADS and HK$198.32 per ordinary share [3]

Core Viewpoint - JD's Q3 financial report showcases both steady performance and unexpected surprises, indicating a potential need for the capital market to reassess the company [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q3, JD Group reported total revenue of 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding market expectations [2]. - JD Retail, a key revenue driver, generated 250.6 billion RMB in revenue, up 11.4% year-on-year, with operating profit reaching 14.8 billion RMB, a significant increase of 27.7% [2]. - Service revenue, including logistics and advertising, grew by 30.8% year-on-year, accounting for 24.4% of total revenue, marking a new high in growth rate over the past two years [2]. Retail Business Stability - Despite a challenging consumer environment, JD Retail maintained double-digit revenue growth and improved operating profit margin from 5.2% in Q3 last year to 5.9% this year [9]. - The growth in revenue and profit margin is attributed to a healthy platform ecosystem, enhanced supply chain capabilities, and improved operational efficiency across various product categories [11][12]. Drivers of Profit Growth - The three main drivers for profit growth in Q3 include: 1. Rapid growth in service revenue from commissions and advertising [11]. 2. Strengthened self-operated supply chain capabilities leading to cost reduction and efficiency [11]. 3. Changes in product category structure improving profit margins, particularly in daily necessities and supermarket categories [11][15]. New Business Development - JD's new business segment, primarily focused on food delivery, saw a revenue increase of 213.7% year-on-year, reaching 15.6 billion RMB, although it also incurred a significant operating loss of 15.736 billion RMB [16][18]. - The growth in user scale and shopping frequency, with a 40% year-on-year increase in active users and shopping frequency, is largely driven by the food delivery business [19]. Strategic Positioning - JD's strategy differs fundamentally from its competitors, focusing on a comprehensive and sustainable approach that combines online and offline retail [24][25]. - The company aims to meet both planned and impulsive shopping needs, providing a wide range of products and fast delivery, which enhances its resilience against economic fluctuations [25]. Future Outlook - JD's food delivery service is viewed as a critical component of its long-term strategy, enhancing user engagement and cross-category shopping [20][21]. - The innovative "Seven Fresh Kitchen" model is expected to differentiate JD from competitors and drive further growth in the food delivery sector [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 14.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 299.1 billion RMB, which exceeded both the consensus and the firm's expectations [1] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same period was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56.0% year-on-year, but still better than expected due to better-than-expected operating profit in the retail segment and non-recurring gains [1] - The report highlights the improvement in operational efficiency and the potential for narrowing losses in the food delivery segment, alongside a robust growth trend in daily necessities sales [1][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for JD Retail in Q3 2025 was 250.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and operating profit of 14.8 billion RMB, up 27.7% [2][11] - The report notes that the revenue from the electronic products category grew by 4.9% to 128.6 billion RMB, while daily necessities saw an 18.8% increase to 97.5 billion RMB [2] User Growth and Engagement - Active user numbers grew by 40% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with annual active users surpassing 700 million [3] - The frequency of purchases per user also increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating improved user engagement [3] Operational Efficiency - The food delivery segment achieved a double-digit growth in GMV quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased order volume and improved order structure [3] - The report emphasizes the narrowing of overall operating losses in the food delivery business, attributed to enhanced supply chain efficiency and disciplined investment [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected profits of 30.5 billion RMB in 2025, 38.1 billion RMB in 2026, and 51.1 billion RMB in 2027 [4][18] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 51.04 USD per ADS and 198.32 HKD per ordinary share, reflecting a valuation multiple of 17.2x, 13.7x, and 10.2x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [21][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group [3] Core Views - JD Group's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and retail revenue of 250.6 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year. Retail operating profit reached 14.8 billion yuan, a 27.7% increase year-on-year [1][5] - The report highlights the robust growth in the daily necessities category and the rapid expansion of third-party service revenue, while the electric category faced growth pressure due to high base effects from government subsidies [1][5] - The report expresses optimism about JD's strong self-operated supply chain and its ability to maintain a solid competitive edge in the long term [1][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit was 5.8 billion yuan, down 56% year-on-year, but better than the expected decline of 70% [1][5] - The report projects that JD's retail revenue and profit will continue to grow at double-digit rates year-on-year for the full year [1][5] - The report anticipates that JD's Non-GAAP net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 31.8 billion yuan, 36.8 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan, respectively [5][6] Business Segment Insights - The report notes that JD's food delivery business is steadily developing, with losses narrowing quarter-on-quarter, and highlights the potential for further loss reduction in the future [1][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of user engagement and conversion rates from the food delivery segment, which are improving and contributing to overall growth [1][5] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for JD Group is set at 136.5 HKD per share, based on a 10x PE ratio for 2026 Non-GAAP net profit [3][5] - The current stock price is 124.4 HKD, indicating potential upside [3]