机构：中金公司 研究员：冯启斌/白洋/罗欣雨/张文杰/刘钢贤/吴维佳/焦莞 3Q25 业绩符合我们预期 公司公布3Q25 业绩：营收550.8 亿元，同比+24%；non-IFRS净利润20.2 亿元，同比-21%；non-IFRS 净 利润率3.7%，同比下降2.1ppt。3Q 业绩符合我们预期，收入高增主要受益于全职骑手参与京东外卖配 送服务、集团零售业务增长；利润短期承压主要由于公司为外卖配送等业务提前投入资源、前置成本增 加。 发展趋势 内外单有序拓展、京东外卖贡献收入，一体化供应链业务收入显著增长。3Q 一体化供应链客户收入同 比+46%至301 亿元，其中：①来自京东集团收入同比+66%至212 亿元，主要受益于京东外卖配送服务 带来增量收入，以及集团零售业务增长。②3Q外部一体化供应链客户收入同比+13%至89 亿元，客户数 和单客户收入分别同比+13%、+1%，服务能力有序提升。3Q 其他业务收入249 亿元，同比+5.1%，快 递快运业务量较稳健增长。 前置资源投入导致成本上涨，3Q 利润率短期承压，后续有望边际改善。公司参与外卖配送致人工成本 上涨，3Q25 员工薪酬福利开支同比+50%至 ...

3Q一体化供应链客户收入同比+46%至301亿元，其中：①来自京东集团收入同比+66%至212亿元，主 要受益于京东外卖配送服务带来增量收入，以及集团零售业务增长。②3Q外部一体化供应链客户收入 同比+13%至89亿元，客户数和单客户收入分别同比+13%、+1%，服务能力有序提升。3Q其他业务收入 249亿元，同比+5.1%，快递快运业务量较稳健增长。 公司公布3Q25业绩：营收550.8亿元，同比+24%;non-IFRS净利润20.2亿元;non-IFRS净利润率3.7%。3Q 业绩符合该行预期，收入高增主要受益于全职骑手参与京东外卖配送服务、集团零售业务增长。 内外单有序拓展、京东外卖贡献收入，一体化供应链业务收入显著增长 中金发布研报称，维持京东物流(02618)2025年和2026年盈利预测不变。当前股价对应2025/2026年8.7 倍/8.0倍non-IFRS市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级，切换至2026年估值，该行看好公司长期成长空间，维持 18.50港元目标价，对应13.6倍/12.5倍2025年/2026年non-IFRS市盈率，较当前股价有56.5%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 3Q25业 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持京东物流(02618)2025年和2026年盈利预测不变。当前股价对 应2025/2026年8.7倍/8.0倍non-IFRS市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级，切换至2026年估值，该行看好公司长期 成长空间，维持18.50港元目标价，对应13.6倍/12.5倍2025年/2026年non-IFRS市盈率，较当前股价有 56.5%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 3Q25业绩符合该行预期 公司公布3Q25业绩：营收550.8亿元，同比+24%;non-IFRS净利润20.2亿元;non-IFRS净利润率3.7%。3Q 业绩符合该行预期，收入高增主要受益于全职骑手参与京东外卖配送服务、集团零售业务增长。 收购达达即时配送补充本地履约场景;海外业务有望构成第二增长曲线 ①本地履约：10月9日公司公告以约2.7亿美元收购达达本地即时配送业务，该行预计该交易有望补充公 司现有产品矩阵、优化末端配送能力。②海外业务：跟随商流快速发展，2025年以来公司海外仓规模快 速扩张;3Q25公司与某新能源车企合作出海中东，提供备件仓运营及一体化物流供应链服务。 内外单有序拓展、京东外卖贡献收入，一 ...

事件：2025 年第三季度，京东集团实现营业收入2991 亿元，同比增长14.9%，超彭博一致预期；其 中，商品收入2260.92 亿元，同比增长10.5%；服务收入729.67 亿元，同比增长30.8%。从费用端来看， 2025 年第三季度研发/销售/管理/履约费用率分别为1.9%/7.0%/1.0%/7.4%，研发/管理/履约费用率环比增 长0.4/0.1/1.1pct，销售费用率环比下降0.5pct。利润端短期承压：2025年第三季度Non-GAAP 归属于公 司普通股股东净利润为58 亿元，同比下降56%，Non-GAAP 净利润率为1.9%，同比下滑3.2pct。 京东零售：多品类协同增长，用户规模突破里程碑。2025 年第三季度，京东零售实现收入2506 亿元， 同比增长11.4%，经营利润148 亿元，同比增长27.6%，经营利润率同比上升0.8pct 至5.9%。分品类来 看：1）电子产品及家用电器品类受以旧换新高基数影响，增速有所放缓，但仍凭借供应链优势巩固领 先地位。截至三季度末，京东3C 数码门店突破4000 家，线下触点持续加密。2）日用百货品类收入同 比增长18.8%，增速约为行业平 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for JD Group [4][6]. Core Insights - JD Group's Q3 2025 revenue reached 299.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [1]. - The company's retail segment achieved revenue of 250.6 billion RMB, growing 11.4% year-on-year, with operating profit rising 27.6% to 14.8 billion RMB [2]. - New business, including food delivery, saw a significant revenue increase of 214% year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [3]. - JD Logistics reported revenue of 55.1 billion RMB, up 24.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.02 billion RMB [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 Non-GAAP net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was 5.8 billion RMB, a decline of 56% year-on-year, with a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 1.9%, down 3.2 percentage points [1]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 1,339.9 billion RMB, 1,463.1 billion RMB, and 1,586.5 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 15.6%, 9.2%, and 8.4% respectively [4][5]. Business Segments - JD Retail's user base surpassed 700 million, with significant growth in shopping frequency during the "11.11" shopping festival, where the number of ordering users increased by 40% and order volume by nearly 60% [2]. - The logistics segment is expanding internationally, with new services launched in Saudi Arabia and the U.S., enhancing JD's integrated supply chain capabilities [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 for 2025, 8 for 2026, and 6 for 2027 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported a 46% year-on-year increase in integrated supply chain revenue for Q3 2025, indicating a strong expansion into high-value markets [2] - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 55.08 billion yuan, a 24.1% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 2.02 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year [9] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business and enhancing instant retail capabilities, including a partnership with a well-known electric vehicle brand in the Middle East [5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from other clients amounted to 24.9 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, accounting for 45.3% of total revenue [3] - Revenue from JD Group reached 21.2 billion yuan, a 65.8% increase year-on-year, representing 38.5% of total revenue [3] - External customer revenue was 33.88 billion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, making up 61.5% of total revenue [3] Operational Highlights - As of September 30, 2025, the company operated over 1,600 warehouses and more than 2,000 cloud warehouses, with a total management area exceeding 34 million square meters [4] - The company successfully launched a dedicated air cargo route from Shenzhen to Singapore, enhancing its logistics network in the Asia-Pacific region [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, with projected adjusted net profits of 8.43 billion yuan, 9.11 billion yuan, and 10 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]

Core Insights - JD Logistics achieved record-breaking performance during the recent Double 11 shopping festival, with a third-quarter revenue growth of 24% to 55.1 billion yuan and an adjusted net profit of 2.02 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [1][4][6] Financial Performance - In Q3, JD Logistics reported total revenue of 55.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.02 billion yuan, surpassing market forecasts [4][6] - The integrated supply chain revenue reached 30.1 billion yuan, growing by 45.8%, while express and freight revenue was 24.9 billion yuan, showing steady growth [7] Technological Advancements - JD Logistics defined the Double 11 logistics challenge as the "most technological," utilizing the Super Brain model 2.0 with 1.9 billion calls and achieving over 95% automation coverage across the logistics chain [2][4] - The deployment of 24 smart wolf warehouses set records for the number and scale of smart logistics robots, with significant increases in operational efficiency [4][6] Operational Efficiency - The logistics process saw a 32-fold increase in green orders, with nearly 100 cities benefiting from "minute-level" delivery, and 95% of self-operated orders fulfilled within 24 hours [2][4] - The implementation of AI technologies and smart assistants for delivery personnel improved route planning and reduced communication costs, enhancing delivery volume and income [4][9] Strategic Developments - The return of Wang Zhenhui as CEO marks the third leadership change in four years, raising industry interest in the future direction of JD Logistics [1][12][15] - JD Logistics has expanded its last-mile delivery capabilities by acquiring Dada Group's instant delivery business, enhancing its fulfillment network [9] Market Positioning - JD Logistics continues to focus on high-efficiency and high-value markets, with significant growth in fresh produce categories during the Double 11 period, including a 100% increase in the delivery volume of hairy crabs [7][9] - The company has established partnerships with leading clients, including Xiaopeng Motors, and opened new international routes to enhance its global supply chain capabilities [11]

Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a total revenue of 55.1 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.1%, with an adjusted net profit of 2.02 billion RMB [1] Business Performance - Integrated supply chain revenue grew by 45.8% year-on-year, reaching 30.1 billion RMB, with external integrated supply chain client revenue at 8.9 billion RMB, up 13.5% [1] - The company continues to see growth in customer numbers and average revenue per customer across multiple industries, particularly in the home appliance sector, by enhancing end-to-end supply chain coverage and leveraging digital capabilities [1] International Expansion - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, replicating its warehousing and integrated supply chain capabilities in international markets, providing comprehensive solutions for Chinese brands and cross-border e-commerce platforms [2] - A notable collaboration with a well-known electric vehicle brand has extended operations to the Middle East, establishing a parts warehouse in Dubai, which supports after-sales service networks in the region [2] Logistics Network Development - As of September 30, 2025, JD Logistics' warehousing network covers nearly all counties in China, with over 1,600 company-operated warehouses and more than 2,000 third-party operated cloud warehouses, totaling over 34 million square meters of managed space [3] - The company has acquired 100% of a subsidiary engaged in local instant delivery services for approximately 270 million USD, which is expected to enhance its service offerings and improve last-mile delivery capabilities [3]

Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a total revenue of 55.1 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.1%, with adjusted net profit reaching 2.02 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [1][1][1] Revenue Breakdown - Integrated supply chain revenue for Q3 reached 30.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, continuing to lead the industry in growth rate [1][1][1] - The number of external integrated supply chain customers and average revenue per customer both demonstrated steady growth [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported a revenue of RMB 55.084 billion for the third quarter ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, while the pre-tax profit decreased by 20.4% to RMB 2.09 billion, and the profit attributable to shareholders fell by 7.92% to RMB 2.03 billion [1] Group 1: Integrated Supply Chain Solutions - The revenue from integrated supply chain customers reached RMB 30.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, with external integrated supply chain customer revenue at RMB 8.9 billion, up 13.5% [1] - The company is enhancing its end-to-end coverage in the home appliance sector, leveraging digital capabilities to streamline operations and reduce costs for brand clients [1] - The "consolidated distribution" model has effectively reduced the number of transfers in delivery, helping clients lower costs and improve warehouse entry efficiency [1] Group 2: Overseas Business Expansion - The company is actively expanding its overseas business by replicating its warehousing and integrated supply chain capabilities in international markets [2] - A partnership with a well-known electric vehicle brand has extended operations to the Middle East, providing comprehensive logistics services in Dubai [2] - The successful launch of a dedicated air cargo route from Shenzhen to Singapore enhances the logistics network in the Asia-Pacific region, offering efficient solutions for high-end electronic products and cross-border e-commerce packages [2] Group 3: Warehousing Network and Acquisitions - As of September 30, 2025, the company's warehousing network covers nearly all counties in China, with over 1,600 warehouses operated by the company and more than 2,000 cloud warehouses managed by third-party owners [3] - The acquisition of a wholly-owned subsidiary engaged in local instant delivery services for approximately USD 270 million is expected to enhance the company's service offerings and improve last-mile delivery capabilities [3] - Total human resources expenditure reached RMB 103.9 billion over the past twelve months, reflecting the company's commitment to job creation and social contribution [3]