Core Viewpoint - The global confidence in the US dollar is declining, and the US may face a financial crisis next year [1] Group 1: Economic Policies and Their Impact - The fiscal situation in the US was already precarious before Donald Trump's second presidential term, exacerbated by tax cuts that could increase the deficit by trillions of dollars [2] - Trump's tariff policies and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates have heightened inflation concerns, further undermining confidence in the dollar [2][4] - The market's distrust in the Trump administration's economic policies is evident, as reflected in the 10% drop in the dollar's exchange rate against other major currencies, marking the worst performance since 1953 [3][6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The significant rise in gold prices, over 25% this year, signals a collapse of confidence in the US [5] - Despite concerns about tariffs and inflation, tariff revenues are expected to reach $300 billion this year, indicating a complex market response [9] - The demand for US debt remains strong, as recent bond auctions show robust interest, contradicting fears of a bond market crisis [10][12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The US should prepare for potential crises in the dollar and bond markets ahead of the midterm elections next year, as the tolerance for fiscal deficits is diminishing [8] - Analysts believe that despite attempts to promote alternative currencies, the dollar will maintain its status as the primary global reserve currency [11] - Concerns about the scale of debt and its impact on borrowing costs are present, but it remains unclear when these concerns will materialize [13]