Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the current global trade situation where in 2025, China's imports of soybeans from the US and rapeseed from Canada have dropped significantly. It analyzes the supply - demand patterns and challenges in the global and domestic markets of soybeans and rapeseed, and uses scenario assumptions to predict future market trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 CBOT Soybean's Operating Cycle - The CBOT soybean has a strong cyclicality. From 2001 to the present, there is a complete cycle of rise, fall, and bottom operation about every 5 years. The cycle is related to the profit - loss cycle of US soybean growers and the La Nina - El Nino cycle. The bottom of the cycle usually has at least one year of grinding time, and the bottom - shock range since 2006 has generally been between 800 - 1000 cents per bushel, which is also the psychological bottom price for investors. Currently, the downward space for US soybeans is limited, and there may be a new upward trend in 0 - 12 months [5]. - From 2001 - 2015, the three cycles had a similar rhythm, with a 3 - year upward cycle and a 2 - year downward cycle. In the past 10 years, due to Sino - US trade frictions and the changing US foreign trade policy, the upward cycle of US soybeans ended earlier, and the downward cycle was significantly extended [7]. 3.2 Impact of Trade Policy on US Soybeans and Canadian Rapeseed - As of August 14, 2025, the new - crop US soybeans for the 2025/26 season had only sold 585 tons, far lower than last year's 754 tons and the 5 - year average of 1427 tons. The USDA has lowered the export forecast for 2025/26 to 4640 tons. If China restarts US soybean procurement and reaches a trade agreement, US soybean exports may increase, and the CBOT soybean price is expected to rise. Otherwise, the price may face pressure [8][11]. - In August 2025, China imposed a 75.8% anti - dumping margin on Canadian rapeseed. Since China's dependence on Canadian rapeseed imports exceeds 95%, there will be a gap of about 250 tons per year. China may increase imports from Australia, but Australian rapeseed production is unstable. This shortage will raise the bottom price of rapeseed meal [12]. 3.3 How Supply Contradictions Affect the Domestic Meal Market - As of the end of August 2025, there is still a large gap in the November, December, and January 2026 shipping schedules. Different scenarios are considered: - If an agreement is reached between China and the US this year, domestic oil mills may increase US soybean procurement, driving the M1 - 5 spread to weaken. US soybeans are expected to rise by 5% - 10%, while domestic soybean meal may rise passively or remain flat [16]. - If an agreement is not reached but China purchases some US soybean contracts during the negotiation, the short - term market will fluctuate greatly. The domestic supply shortage cannot be fully alleviated, and soybean meal will maintain a volatile upward pattern [16]. - If there is no agreement, Brazilian soybeans can meet China's demand in the short term, but as Brazilian inventory declines, the premium will rise. The domestic M2601 contract may follow the upward trend and could reach the 3250 - 3500 range [16]. - The absolute price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is usually between 400 - 800 yuan/ton. When the price difference is ≤ 400 yuan/ton, the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal is significant; when it is ≥ 800 yuan/ton, the substitution of rapeseed meal for soybean meal may occur. Currently, the price difference is around 550 yuan/ton, and the substitution sensitivity is increasing. The domestic rapeseed meal supply is tight in the long - term and loose in the short - term, and the price difference may strengthen after the peak season of aquaculture [17][19].