短期大豆通关受阻， 豆粕价格增仓上涨 蛋白粕周报 2026/02/28 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润及库存 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 供给端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：（1）据USDA出口销售数据显示，2月12日至2月19日当周美国出口大豆41万吨，当前年度累计出口大豆3565万吨，同比减少783万 吨；其中当周对中国出口大豆8万吨，当前年度对中国累计出口1066万吨，同比减少1008万吨。（2）据巴西国家商品供应公司(Conab)公布 数据显示，截至2月21日，巴西大豆收割率为32.3%，较去年同期减少4.1个百分点，较五年均值为减少4.3个百分点。（3）据MYSTEEL数据显 示，截至2月20日当周，2026年国内样本大豆到港1128万吨，同比增加170万吨；样本大豆港口库存559万吨，同比减少11万吨。（4）据USDA 数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全球大豆产量为425.67百万吨 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 国际大豆基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、供应端：南美天气扰动 | 美豆库存预计仍然较高 | 3 | | 二、需求端：美豆需求好转 | 南美出口整体缓慢 | 5 | | 三、综合分析：供应压力反应有限 | 价格整体偏强 | 7 | | 第三部分 国内粕类基本面情况 | 8 | | | 一、供应题材反复 成交整体放缓 | 8 | | | 二、供应逐步收紧 豆粕继续去库 | 9 | | | 三、菜籽菜粕供应逐步改善 | 库存整体维持低位 | 10 | | 第四部分 综合分析与后市展望 | 12 | | | 一、综合分析 | 12 | | | 二、策略分析 | 13 | | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 粕类研发报告 粕类 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 宏观影响增加 粕类宽幅震荡 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 本月美豆整体呈现强势上涨状态，市场利多因素主要集中在后续出口可能出 现好转以及南美天气扰动方面 ...

2月末起逐步恢复。 (1) 出口情绪稍缓, 内需不足上方空间有限。 (2) 下方有反内 卷及成本端支撑。 (1) 甲醇整体受到伊朗局势的影响预期未来进口减量但下游负反 馈明显,多空交织(2) 下游MTO龙头装置停车且部分企业降负荷 生产。(3) 上游库存普遍较低,下游库存普遍中高。 (1) 原油震荡偏强。(2)价格回归合理区间。(3)春节假期. 需求平淡。(4)地缘政治加剧,原油上涨。 6(1)检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2)下游改善 不及预期。 (3) 价格回归合理区间。 (4) 地缘政治加剧,原油 上涨。 (1) 2026年全球投产较少,西北地区差别电价有望实行,倒逼 PVC产能出清,未来预期偏乐观。(2)基本面较差。8(3)抢出口 PVC 阶段性放缓。 (1) 宏观情绪暂时消退,盘面重新交易基本面。 (2) 基本面偏 弱,绝对价格低位。 (3) 液氯小幅补贴,现货价格小幅上涨。 (1) 2月CP价格上行,3月买货仍相对紧张。(2)中东地缘冲突 溢价回升,PG节后走势偏强。(3)海外寒潮驱动逻辑逐步放缓 预计基差仍将修复走扩。(4)国内PDH开工率下滑、利润预计季 节性修复,LPG需求端短期偏 ...

锂矿概念股爆发，个股掀起涨停潮，此前津巴布韦矿业及矿产发展部发布紧急声明，宣布即刻起暂停所有原矿和锂精矿的出口。 2月26日，A股震荡下跌，三大股指早盘集体走低，创业板跌近1%，盐湖提锂、锂矿概念股爆发，半导体、光伏等板块调整。港股震荡回落，恒 科指跌近1%，科网股多数下跌。 债市方面，国债期货集体下跌。商品方面，国内商品期货多数上涨，碳酸锂继续大涨，现涨超5%。汇市方面，离岸人民币升破6.84关口，最高触 及6.8384。核心市场走势： | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4137.80 | -9.43 | -0.23% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14424.91 | -50.96 | -0.35% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | | 3316.56 | -38.26 | -1.14% | | 000300 | 沪深300 | | 4718.69 | -17.20 | -0.36% | | 000016 | FJE20 | | 3036 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 作者：田亚雄 本报告完成时间 | 2026年2月23日 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可〔2011〕1461 号 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交 易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 整体来看原油创近半年新高，而黄金白银的反弹成为春节假期的标志性结果，成因一个是美国和伊朗的地缘叙事，另一个是美国最高法和总统的对垒，关键 的争夺是关税，而这一切的背后仍旧是逆全球化和资源主义的加深。 第一美国的关税问题的未来分歧。 近期美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）征收的关税违法，这根曾被用作"万能钥匙"的行政权支柱应声断裂。几乎与此同 时，白宫迅速援引《1974年贸易法》第122条，宣布征收15%的临时全球关税，并暗示将更频繁地使用301条款等工具。 最高法院的判决，本质上是美国三权分立体制对行政权的一次关 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's February supply - demand report shows stable data for the US 2025/26 soybean year, while Brazil's soybean production estimate has increased, and global soybean production and ending stocks are also expected to rise. Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased in January due to strong exports despite lower production, and the decline is expected to continue. Global rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal production and ending stocks are projected to increase in the 2025/26 year [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025/26 US Soybean Information - The USDA's February report estimates the US 2025/26 soybean production at 4.262 billion bushels, exports at 1.575 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 350 million bushels, all unchanged from January estimates [1] 3.2 2025/26 Global Soybean Information - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production estimate is 180 million tons (up from 178 million tons in January), with exports estimated at 114 million tons (unchanged from January). Argentina's production is estimated at 48.5 million tons and exports at 8.25 million tons, both unchanged from January. Global 2025/26 soybean production estimate is 428.18 million tons (up from 425.68 million tons in January), and ending stocks are estimated at 125.51 million tons (up from 124.41 million tons in January) [1] 3.3 Brazil's Soybean Harvest and Export - As of the week of February 7, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 17.4%, up from 11.2% the previous week, compared to 14.8% the previous year and a five - year average of 18.7%. Anec predicts Brazil's February soybean exports to reach 1.171 million tons (up from the previous week's forecast of 1.142 million tons) and February soybean meal exports to reach 193,000 tons (up from 163,000 tons) [1] 3.4 Malaysia's Palm Oil Information - ITS data shows Malaysia's February 1 - 10 palm oil exports decreased 10.5% month - on - month; AmSpec data shows a 14.3% decrease. MPOB data shows Malaysia's January palm oil inventory decreased 7.72% to 2.82 million tons (the lowest since October 2025), production decreased 13.78% to 1.58 million tons (the lowest since March 2025), and exports increased 11.44% to 1.48 million tons (the highest since October 2025) [1] 3.5 Global Rapeseed and Related Products in 2025/26 - Global 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 95.022 million tons (up 9.024 million tons year - on - year), ending stocks at 12.104 million tons (up 2.215 million tons). Rapeseed oil production is expected to be 35.68 million tons (up 1.511 million tons), ending stocks at 3.237 million tons (up 0.029 million tons). Rapeseed meal production is expected to be 50.952 million tons (up 1.884 million tons), ending stocks at 1.518 million tons (up 0.079 million tons). Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed exports are expected to be 7.6 million tons (down 1.731 million tons), rapeseed oil exports at 3.525 million tons (up 0.185 million tons), and rapeseed meal exports at 5.85 million tons (up 0.051 million tons) [1] 3.6 Spot Prices - Spot prices for various products from February 4 - 10, 2026, are provided, including prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [4] 3.7 Others - The report also mentions protein meal basis, grease basis, and grease and oilseed futures spreads, but no specific data is provided [5][7][10]

1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. As the USDA is about to release its monthly supply and demand report, the market is focusing on South American soybean production. With the pre - holiday trading being light, the market is in a wait - and - see mode and the futures market is oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9014.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 12 yuan and a change rate of - 0.13% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8114.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.15% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9137.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.08% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8950.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 60.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.67%. The spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was Y05 + 286.00, with a month - on - month change of - 12.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9890.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, with a month - on - month change of + 7.00 yuan [1] Market Information - As of February 9, the national imported soybean port inventory was 8.25918 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop reached 16% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the sown area of the 2026 second - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 22% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 first - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 15% of the expected area - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was $553/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was $561/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was $503/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (April shipment) was $497/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was $454/ton, down $1/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment), the US West Coast (April shipment), and Brazilian ports (April shipment) decreased by 9 cents/bushel, 9 cents/bushel, and 5 cents/bushel respectively from the previous trading day - As of the week of February 6, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2480000 tons, the second - highest level in history. It increased by 190000 tons week - on - week, 730000 tons month - on - month, 2020000 tons year - on - year, and 1530000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. It is expected to drop to about 1.6 million tons during the Spring Festival holiday - As of February 4, the sowing of the 2025/26 Argentine soybean crop has been completed, but the crop growth and moisture conditions have significantly worsened. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, 8.6% less than a week ago; 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 5.6% less than a week ago. More than 40% of the early - sown soybeans are in the critical reproductive growth stage, suffering from severe water shortages. 16% of the late - sown soybeans have entered the reproductive growth stage, with water shortages causing flower abortion and even plant death in extreme cases. About 31% of the national soybean area is in the critical growth stage, and water stress is the core challenge [2]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Night session oil prices gave back previous gains. Geopolitical news has a phased and intermittent impact on oil prices. Global oil market inventory accumulation pressure remains significant, and oil price volatility is expected to continue [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals continued to decline. CME raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures. Short - term precious metals are in a volatile stage, and it is advisable to wait for volatility to decline [2]. Copper - Overnight, Shanghai copper's open interest dropped below 600,000 lots. The market is volatile in the short - term. The market focuses on potential reserves and supply - demand changes around the Spring Festival. It is more concerned about inter - period reverse arbitrage and waiting to go long at low prices [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. Short - term macro sentiment is unstable, and the fundamentals are weak. There is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. It has difficulty rising with aluminum prices and its seasonal spread with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than in previous years [5]. Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity has slightly decreased, but long - term large - scale production cuts have not occurred. The alumina market remains in surplus [6]. Zinc - Before the Spring Festival, Shanghai zinc's fluctuations have increased. The downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. In the short - term, zinc prices lack the momentum to rebound, but attention should be paid to potential rebounds after volatility declines [7]. Lead - The domestic lead market has weak supply and demand. Consumption support for prices is insufficient in the short - term. Cost support is relatively strong, and the market is in a state of divergence. It is advisable to wait and see before the Spring Festival [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and market trading was active. Stainless steel downstream buyers are cautious. The market sentiment is panicked, and caution is recommended [9]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices fluctuated. Wait for the changes in social inventory after the decline in tin prices this week. It is advisable to hold a small number of short positions or wait and see [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down during the session. The market participation is affected by exchange policies. The futures price is in high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [11]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was dragged down by the precious metal market sentiment. In February, production is expected to decline significantly. The downstream demand is weak. The market may rebound after a sharp decline and will generally maintain an oscillating trend [12]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market sentiment was affected by the decline in precious metals. In February, production is expected to decline. The market may go through inventory reduction. After an emotional correction, the market will maintain an oscillating trend [13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Night session steel prices oscillated weakly. Rebar demand and production declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil demand decreased, and inventory slightly increased. The market atmosphere is pessimistic, and the price is under short - term pressure [14]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market oscillated overnight. Supply is seasonally low, and demand is weak in the off - season. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the short - term trend will be mainly oscillating [15]. Coke - The coke price oscillated downward during the day. Coking profit is average, and inventory slightly increased. The price will probably oscillate within a range [16]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated downward during the day. The total inventory has increased significantly. The price is difficult to decline significantly and will mainly oscillate within a range [17]. Ferromanganese Silicon - The price oscillated during the day. The supply is in surplus, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [18]. Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. The demand has some resilience, and the supply has little change. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy [19]. Group 2: Shipping and Related Products Container Freight Index (European Line) - Shipping companies are raising post - holiday quotes, but the actual implementation may be limited. The market is in a quiet period before the Spring Festival, and the freight rate is generally stable [20]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors and tight supply - demand in the spot market. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure due to supply increases and weakening demand [21]. Asphalt - Shandong and southern refineries have reduced production. Consumption has improved year - on - year. The price will continue to be strong, and the cracking spread is expected to rise [22]. Group 3: Chemical Products Urea - The spot price of urea has increased slightly. Production is rising, and demand is mainly for reserve. The market will oscillate within a range [23]. Methanol - Overseas methanol plant operation has declined, and domestic production has increased. The coastal demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are still weak [24]. Pure Benzene - Geopolitical risks have decreased, and the price has fallen. Domestic production has increased slightly, and imports are still high. The downstream demand is expected to improve, but the fundamentals may weaken as supply increases [25]. Styrene - Domestic production has increased. The price is affected by crude oil price fluctuations and will oscillate widely [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The supply of the two - olefin market has no obvious pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the market will oscillate [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is expected to oscillate strongly due to cost support and export demand. Caustic soda is running weakly, and its price is determined by the price of liquid chlorine [28]. PX and PTA - PX and PTA are oscillating at a low level. There is a risk of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. Consider long - position opportunities in the second quarter based on PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - The inventory is increasing, and the short - term trend is oscillating. The supply - demand may improve in the second quarter, but the long - term is still under pressure [30]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak. Bottle - chip processing margin has improved, but there is long - term capacity pressure. Both follow raw material price fluctuations [31]. Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weakening. There is pressure for inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The price will oscillate widely due to the game between low valuation and weak reality [32]. 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude oil price has fallen, and the natural rubber supply is in the reduction period. The demand is average, and the market sentiment is weak. It is advisable to wait and see [33]. Soda Ash - Soda ash is running weakly. Inventory is rising, and the market is under supply - demand pressure. Consider short - selling on rebounds [34]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - After the Sino - US leaders' communication, the US soybean futures rose, but the domestic market followed weakly. The short - term trend of domestic soybean meal will be bottom - oscillating [35]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - CBOT soybeans are strong. The US soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the impact of macro factors in 2026 [36]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The import of oilseeds is expected to improve. The rapeseed market will oscillate in the short - term [37]. Soybean No. 1 - Soybean No. 1 oscillates. The policy is promoting domestic soybean production. Pay attention to policy and market sentiment [38]. Corn - The spot price of corn in the northeast and northern ports is slightly stronger. The futures price will oscillate weakly in the short - term [39]. Live Pig - The live pig futures are declining. The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term price may have a low point in the first half of next year [40]. Egg - The egg futures have fallen significantly. The egg price may rise in the first half of 2026. Consider long - position strategies after the Spring Festival [41]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton is slightly declining. The short - term trend will be oscillating. Pay attention to import changes [42]. Sugar - International sugar production varies by country. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is slow, but there is an expectation of an increase in the 25/26 season. The short - term price is under pressure [43]. Apple - The apple futures price oscillates. The market focuses on demand. The poor quality and high price may affect inventory reduction [44]. Wood - The wood futures price is at a low level. Low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Pulp - The pulp futures price has fallen. The port inventory is accumulating. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the price will oscillate. Wait and see and pay attention to support levels [46]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares adjusted with reduced volume, and stock index futures fell. The short - term risk assets will probably oscillate at a high level, and it is better to focus on performance - certain sectors [47]. Treasury Bond - On February 5, 2026, TL2603 led the rise. Other varieties are strong under the influence of loose funds and central bank bond - buying [48].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market experienced a decline in the majority of its main contracts on February 5, 2026, with significant drops in several commodities, indicating a bearish trend in the market [6][8]. Price Movements - Major declines were observed in the following commodities: - Silver futures (沪银) dropped by over 10.85% - Lithium carbonate (碳酸锂) fell by 10.68% - Platinum (铂) and tin (沪锡) decreased by over 7% - Copper (沪铜 and 国际铜) and BR rubber fell by over 3% - Other commodities such as canola (菜籽), industrial silicon (工业硅), caustic soda (烧碱), coking coal (焦煤), and aluminum (沪铝) dropped by over 2% [6][7][9]. - On the other hand, some commodities saw price increases: - The shipping index (集运欧线) rose by over 3% - Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 1% [6][7].