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蛋白粕周报:缺乏确定性,蛋白粕维持观望-20260328
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-28 14:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices, raising the valuation of domestic protein meal. On the other hand, the customs' relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has fluctuated greatly recently, lacking certainty, so it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump plans to visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.79 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons. The US exported 80,000 tons of soybeans to China during the week, with a cumulative export of 10.98 million tons to China this year, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production is 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the February forecast and an increase of 0.028 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from February and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores for various indicators such as the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and others are given, and the overall short - term recommendation is to wait and see [13] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend a wait - and - see approach [14] - **Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Provide the supply - demand balance tables of global soybeans, US soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, Argentine soybeans, global rapeseeds, and Canadian rapeseeds, including data on beginning inventory, production, import, export, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, as well as their环比 and year - on - year changes [15][16][17][18][19][20] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: Present the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [24] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Show the basis trends of the May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [27] - **Inter - month Spread**: Display the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [30] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Present the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [33] 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Include the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [39][42] - **Weather Conditions**: Compare the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same - period average, and provide the precipitation and temperature anomalies of soybean - producing areas [46][49] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Show the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds [56][59][62] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Present the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [65] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Show the monthly export volume and exports to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipments to China [68][71] - **Argentine Soybean Shipment to China**: Show the weekly and cumulative shipments of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [74] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Present the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [79] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Show the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [82] - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Display the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [85] 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Show the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [88] - **Farming Profit**: Present the per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [91]
中东局势多变,油脂宽幅震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 06:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) fluctuated and declined. The news of the auction of 100,000 tons of domestic soybeans produced in 2022 on March 26 affected the market, and the tight supply of soybean spot is expected to be alleviated. Coupled with the changes in the Middle East situation, the oil prices are under pressure [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 134 yuan and a decline of - 1.39% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,550.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 44.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.51% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,707.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 106.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.08% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,480.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 200.00 yuan and a decline of - 2.07%. The spot basis was P05 + - 30.00, with a month - on - month change of - 66.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 100.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 1.13%. The spot basis was Y05 + 170.00, with a month - on - month change of - 56.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,240.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 100.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.97%. The spot basis was OI05 + 533.00, with a month - on - month change of + 6.00 yuan [1] Market News - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,414,990 tons, a 38.4% increase from the same period last month - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25 were 1,389,549 tons, a 51% increase from the same period last month - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 595 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 605 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,255 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1,205 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,130 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1,110 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 509 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 503 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was 478 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 231 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (April shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (April shipment) was 149 cents/bushel, down 1 cent/bushel from the previous trading day [2]
油脂二季报:油脂:宏观和现实分化
Zi Jin Tian Feng· 2026-03-26 06:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, the crude oil price remains high. The longer this situation lasts, the higher the impact of premiums on freight, fertilizers, and costs for agricultural products, especially those highly dependent on imports. Macro and policy factors mainly drive the disk price to be strong, but the volatility is also relatively large [113]. - For soybean oil, the negotiation on Brazil's quarantine specifications has not reached a conclusion. Attention should be paid to the potential pressure in the near - term being postponed, which will inevitably bring greater pressure in the long - term [113]. - For rapeseed oil, before the rapeseed supply shows a significant tightening in the 26/27 season, opportunities in the far - month spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil should be focused on. The near - month rapeseed oil is supported by issues such as the clearance of non - genetically modified rapeseed oil, and the inventory accumulation rhythm is slightly slower than expected, with inventory being postponed [113]. - For palm oil, South American soybean oil has not followed the sharp rise of palm oil, and the far - month price is cheaper. Seasonally, the export of overall oils and fats deteriorates in April and May. The issues related to Indonesia's B50 production capacity have not been resolved. The actual production of Indonesian biodiesel in 2025 was 14.94 million kiloliters, lower than the target of 15.6 million kiloliters. The target for 2026 is 15.65 million kiloliters. The methanol for Indonesian biodiesel raw materials mainly comes from Malaysia and the Middle East, which may be affected. The near - month inventory in the producing areas remains high. There are still CNF quotes for April shipments, with a relatively small inversion to the disk price, and there have been successive purchase transactions. During the Eid al - Fitr in India, the current fixed - price is high. It is estimated that India will import 850,000 tons in March, 847,000 tons in February, but the import will drop to 650,000 tons in April. After the domestic disk price rises, the producing areas are more willing to transfer inventory to the domestic market, so palm oil has been weaker than crude oil recently. There is a divergence between the macro - energy bullish factors and the actual fundamentals. If the war risk decreases, the repair of the 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil is worth attention. If the war continues, the price will also remain strong [113]. - There are rumors that the compliance obligation volume of US biodiesel for the 26 and 27 seasons will be announced late, but the US soybean oil disk has already factored in the positive expectations. Attention should be paid to the final policy implementation [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rapeseed - **Canada**: In the 26/27 season, the rapeseed planting area is 8.838 million hectares (8.9 million hectares in the February report), higher than the previous season's 8.748 million hectares. The yield per unit is 2.19 tons per hectare (2.17 tons per hectare in the February report), and the total output is 19.2 million tons, slightly lower than the previous season's 21.8 million tons. Assuming new processing plants are put into use, the crushing volume is expected to reach a new high of 12.5 million tons, resulting in a decrease in export volume to 7.7 million tons, lower than the previous season's 8.2 million tons. The trend yield per unit in the 26/27 season will be 2.5 - 2.6 tons per hectare. If the yield per unit is the same as that in the 25/26 season, the output will reach 21.97 million tons. These data were completed before the outbreak of the Middle East war, when the price was in the lower range of 600 Canadian dollars, but the rapeseed price has since risen by more than 100 Canadian dollars [17]. - **Australia**: In the 25/26 season, the rapeseed planting area in Australia was adjusted from 3.63 million hectares to 3.7 million hectares, the yield per unit was adjusted from 1.99 tons per hectare to 1.96 tons per hectare, the output was adjusted from 7.23 million tons to 7.7 million tons, and the export was adjusted from 5.4 million tons to 5.93 million tons. In the 26/27 season, the planting area is 3.55 million hectares, the yield per unit is 1.96 tons per hectare, and the output is 6.96 million tons. Drought conditions in key planting areas are expected to reduce the output prospects in the 2026 - 27 season. The latest rainfall forecast from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology from May to June shows an increased possibility of below - median rainfall. If this happens, farmers may be cautious about reducing rapeseed planting in the upcoming planting season. Nevertheless, the higher export price encourages some farmers in Western Australia to expand the rapeseed planting area [22]. - **EU**: The rapeseed output in the EU in the 25/26 season slightly decreased to 20.165 million tons, and is expected to be 20.8 million tons in the 26/27 season. The planting area in the 26/27 season is 6.5 million hectares, the yield per unit is 3.2 tons per hectare [23]. - **Russia and Ukraine**: The Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperatives Union has lowered the rapeseed output in 2025 to 3 million tons, lower than 3.7 million tons in 2024 and the previous forecast of 3.3 million tons. Due to adverse winter weather, up to 10% of the rapeseed planting area may need to be replanted. Due to severe frosts in February, the rapeseed output in some areas may be reduced by up to 20%, with the temperature dropping to minus 28 degrees Celsius in some areas. Consulting agencies have lowered the forecast of Ukraine's rapeseed output in 2026 to 3.7 million tons, lower than the forecast of 3.9 million tons a month ago. The Russian Federal Statistical Service estimates that the rapeseed output in 2025 will reach 5.5 million tons. According to the industry analysis of the Russian Agricultural Bank, as of the end of January, the rapeseed inventory at the end of January was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 79.6% compared with the average of the past four years. According to the estimate of the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, the sown areas of spring rapeseed and winter rapeseed are expected to be 3.2 million and 2.9 million hectares respectively, with a total harvest of 5.8 million tons [27]. - **Global**: In the 26/27 season, if Canada's rapeseed output is 19.2 million tons, lower than the previous season's 21.8 million tons, the total output of major rapeseed - producing countries in the world will reach 56.46 million tons, a decrease of 1.71 million tons compared with the 25/26 season. If Canada's rapeseed yield per unit in the 26/27 season returns to the trend yield per unit, the output of the above - mentioned major producing countries will increase by 1.25 million tons to 59.41 million tons [30]. Palm Oil - **Rainfall**: In 2026, the rainfall in the Kalimantan region of Indonesia is scarce, especially in West Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan. In Malaysia, the rainfall in 2026 is higher than that of last year, with more rainfall in Sabah and West Malaysia [34][39][42]. - **Production, Export, and Inventory in Malaysia**: In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 18.55% month - on - month to 1.28 million tons, lower than the market forecast of 1.3 - 1.33 million tons, and the decline rate was also higher than the average level of 6.53%. Regionally, production in West Malaysia decreased by 16.3%, in Sabah by 22.64%, and in Sarawak by 2.47%. The export in February decreased by 22.48% month - on - month to 1.13 million tons, lower than the expected 1.18 - 1.19 million tons. The apparent consumption in February was 344,000 tons, close to the market forecast, and the inventory decreased to 2.704 million tons, higher than the market forecast of 2.63 - 2.65 million tons. In March, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by about 5%, the export will increase by 30% month - on - month, and the inventory may drop to about 2.3 million tons [54][57][58]. India As of March 20, the price spread between Indian crude soybean oil and crude palm oil widened to $39 per ton, compared with - $5 per ton the previous week. The price spread between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $165 per ton, compared with $160 per ton the previous week. The refined soybean - palm oil price spread was $113 per ton, compared with $54 per ton the previous week [64]. Soybean Oil - **Price and Production in North and South America**: The soybean oil prices in North and South America have diverged. Argentina's soybean crushing is in the seasonal increasing stage, while Brazil has high soybean oil consumption and low exports. In 2025, the combined soybean oil exports of the US, Brazil, and Argentina increased by 600,000 tons year - on - year [86][98][104]. Biodiesel - **US**: The proportion of soybean oil input in US biodiesel has decreased [108]. - **Brazil**: The Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA) has recently applied to the Ministry of Mines and Energy to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from the current 15% to 17% to cope with the impact of rising international oil prices. If the blending ratio is increased to B16 in March, the biodiesel production in 2026 will reach 10.44 million cubic meters, higher than 9.84 million cubic meters in 2025, and about 400,000 tons more soybean oil will be consumed [112].
多重因素驱动,油脂震荡偏强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 06:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors are driving the oil and fat market to fluctuate and strengthen. The prices of the three major oils and fats rose yesterday. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has hindered shipping, pushing up the energy risk premium and enhancing the economic viability of palm oil as a biodiesel raw material, driving the vegetable oil sector to rise. The expectation of the US RVO policy is rising, and the EPA is expected to significantly increase the biofuel obligation volume for 2026 at the end of March. Coupled with the 45Z tax credit, it will strengthen the industrial demand for US soybean oil and form a bottom support for global oil and fat prices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,942.00 yuan/ton, a change of +224 yuan and a change rate of +2.31% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,740.00 yuan/ton, a change of +112.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.30%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,950.00 yuan/ton, a change of +74.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.75% [1] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,890.00 yuan/ton, a change of +170.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.75%, with a spot basis of P05 - 52.00 and a change of -54.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,910.00 yuan/ton, a change of +90.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.02%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 170.00 and a change of -22.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,480.00 yuan/ton, a change of +70.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.67%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 530.00 and a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Market News Summary - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that private exporters reported the export sales of 161,120 tons of soybeans and 102,000 tons of corn to Mexico, both for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [2] - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 68%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week. The sowing rate of the second - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region in 2026 was 97% [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 599 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 608 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 511 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 505 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was 480 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (April shipment) was 230 cents/bushel, an increase of 6 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (April shipment) was 214 cents/bushel, an increase of 6 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (April shipment) was 146 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - Since March, the operating rate of domestic oil mills has continued to rise, and the weekly soybean crushing volume is close to 2 million tons. As of March 20, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was about 5.5 million tons. The estimated monthly crushing volume is about 7.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 1.3 million tons, and an increase of about 0.8 million tons compared to the average of the same period in the past three years [2] - Affected by the price trends of US soybeans and international crude oil, the export quotes of Brazilian soybeans and the domestic prices of soybean meal and soybean oil fluctuated downward last week. The decline in the CNF export quotes of Brazilian soybeans was greater, and the domestic crushing profit margin increased slightly. On March 20, the crushing profit margin of imported Brazilian soybeans for April and May shipments was 60 - 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 - 16 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week [2]
市场担忧4月进口大豆到港减少,豆菜粕短期或震荡偏强
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - It is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will be mainly volatile and strong in the short term [5][8] - Factors supporting the price of US soybeans include a sharp rise in crude oil, potentially favorable biodiesel demand, and concerns about shipping disruptions [6] - Cargill has suspended some soybean exports due to changes in the Brazilian government's inspection system [6] - Some oil mills in Dongguan have announced shutdown plans, downstream feed enterprises' inventory has declined, and their willingness to replenish inventory is strong [6] - The market expects that China will strictly examine the phytosanitary certificates of Brazilian soybeans, resulting in a significant reduction in the arrival volume of imported soybeans from March to April compared with expectations [6] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended that the support level of soybean meal 2605 be 2900 - 3000 [8] - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [8] - Outlook: Pay attention to the weather conditions in the South American soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, the domestic demand for soybean meal, and the volume of China's imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal [8] 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures were volatile and strong [20] - The March USDA report was neutral. Argentina's soybean production forecast was lowered by 500,000 tons to 48 million tons, Brazil's soybean production forecast remained unchanged at 180 million tons, and the US soybean balance sheet remained basically unchanged [21] - The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal was volatile and strong. Currently, the price difference is at a historical mid - level, and it is recommended to wait and see [26] 3.3 Supply Side - As of January 16, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.40 per bushel, a 13.21% increase from the previous week and a 2.44% decrease from the same period last year [47] - In December 2025, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 63,000 tons from November and a 1.3% increase from December 2024. The cumulative import volume of soybeans in 2025 was 111.833 million tons, a 6.46% increase year - on - year [51] 3.4 Demand Side - Data on pig prices, pig - grain ratio, pig self - raising profit, pig外购 profit, white - feather broiler breeding profit, and laying hen breeding profit are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [69][73][79] 3.5 Inventory - As of March 6, the national port soybean inventory was 5.7267 million tons, a 4.03% decrease from the previous week and a 54.73% increase from the same period last year; the domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, an 8.46% increase from the previous week and a 28.27% increase from the same period last year [84] - As of March 13, 2026, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 8.64 days, a decrease of 0.50 days from the previous period and a decrease of 1.34 days from the same period last year [88] - As of the 10th week of 2026, the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions of the country was 398,400 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [92]
蛋白粕周报:蛋白粕价格宽幅波动,短线观望-20260314
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-14 13:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The March USDA report is neutral. Affected by the geopolitical crisis, the short - term crude oil price fluctuates sharply, driving the protein meal price to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: China's soybean imports in February were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. The latest estimates of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production by AgRural and StoneX were 178 million tons and 177.8 million tons respectively, both lower than the previous forecasts. From February 26 to March 5, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with a year - on - year decrease of 7.7 million tons in the current - year cumulative exports. The US exported 80,000 tons of soybeans to China during the week, and the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 million tons. As of the week of March 6, the domestic sample soybean arrivals in 2026 were 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the February forecast [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores of various indicators are as follows: the multi - empty score of the US soybean 5 - 7 spread is 0; the soybean import crushing profit is +1; the rapeseed import cost is - 1; the soybean and rapeseed meal spread is 0; the international soybean supply is +0.5; the domestic supply is - 0.5; the domestic demand is +1; and other factors (geopolitical crisis) are +1. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The document provides the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2022 to 2026 [21][22]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of the soybean meal May contract and the rapeseed meal May contract from 2022 to 2026 [24][25]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads of soybean meal 5 - 9 and rapeseed meal 5 - 9 from 2022 to 2026 are presented [27][28]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spreads between the soybean meal May - rapeseed meal May and soybean meal September - rapeseed meal September from 2022 to 2026 are shown [30][31]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: It includes the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [36][37][39]. - **Weather Conditions**: The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina are compared with the same - period averages. The precipitation and temperature anomalies in major soybean - producing areas are also provided [42][44][45]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: It shows the current - market - year and next - market - year cumulative signing volumes, the current - market - year and next - market - year exports to China, and the US soybean export progress from 2021 to 2026. The monthly import volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in China are also presented [53][54][56]. - **China's Oil Mill Pressing Situation**: The soybean and rapeseed pressing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [62][63]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: The monthly export volumes and exports to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025 are presented. The weekly and cumulative shipments of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 are also provided [65][66][68]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are shown [76][77]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: The inventories of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [79][80]. - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit**: The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 are shown [82][83]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: The cumulative sales volume and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 are presented [86]. - **Breeding Profit**: The average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 are shown [88][89].
国际冲突持续,运费持续上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 05:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA data shows that only Argentina's South American output has been reduced by 500,000 tons, and the overall supply remains relatively abundant. Recently, due to the impact of overseas geopolitics and continuous conflicts, freight rates have risen significantly, which also provides some support for oil prices. Future trends need to be closely monitored [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,526 yuan/ton, a change of +64 yuan or +0.68% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,570 yuan/ton, a change of +126 yuan or +1.49% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,778 yuan/ton, a change of +65 yuan or +0.67% compared to the previous day [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,450 yuan/ton, a change of +120 yuan or +1.29% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was P05 - 76 yuan, a change of +56 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,660 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The spot basis was Y05 + 90 yuan, a change of - 126 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,380 yuan/ton, a change of +70 yuan or +0.68% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was OI05 + 602 yuan, a change of +5 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil in Malaysia - From March 1 - 10, 2026, according to the data of the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), the yield per unit area of palm oil in Malaysia increased by 4.29% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% compared to the same period last month, and the output increased by 1.55% compared to the same period last month [2] Import Prices of Various Oils and Grains - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) is 611 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) is 618 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) is 1,175 US dollars/ton, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) is 1,145 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) is 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) is 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged compared to the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) is 529 US dollars/ton, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) is 523 US dollars/ton, unchanged compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) is 486 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premium Quotes - The premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (April shipment) is 236 cents/bushel, a decrease of 8 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; the premium of US West Coast soybeans (April shipment) is 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 8 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian port soybeans (April shipment) is 120 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel compared to the previous trading day [2]
国投期货综合晨报-20260311
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2026-03-11 05:15
Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Nighttime oil prices fluctuated violently. Military conflicts in the Middle East continue, and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz is severely restricted. Iraq has cut production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, and Kuwait has cut supply by 300,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are using alternative pipelines, and oil prices are expected to remain high until the strait resumes normal passage [2]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong performance. The global economic outlook and interest - rate cut paths are uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at historical highs. The inflation expectation has strengthened after the sharp fluctuation of crude oil [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices showed a positive - line oscillation. The Iran situation is still uncertain, and the copper market has high volatility. The visible copper inventory is high, and the LME 0 - 3 month spot is at a discount of $92. The domestic spot discount is narrowing. The copper price is supported by spot buying interest but may still oscillate due to the uncertain situation and high inventory [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. The domestic social inventory is at a multi - year high, but the Middle East situation has intensified the shortage concern, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Aluminum prices are fluctuating sharply at historical highs [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Under geopolitical risks, the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum remains above 1,000 yuan in the short term [6]. Alumina - The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly. The spot trading volume has increased slightly. The production cut of Middle East electrolytic aluminum has a negative impact, and the freight increase has raised the import cost, but the overall oversupply situation remains [7]. Zinc - The average price of SMM 1 zinc is 24,210 yuan/ton, with a discount of 75 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The LME zinc inventory has fallen to 94,800 tons. The domestic "Golden March and Silver April" consumption is yet to be verified. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a high level [8]. Lead - The LME aluminum inventory is at a high of 285,000 tons. The import profit has expanded, and the overseas oversupply pressure is being transmitted to the domestic market. The refined - scrap price difference has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. Shanghai lead is in a low - level consolidation pattern, with a price range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, with mostly short - term trading in the market. The upstream price rebound has pushed up the mid - stream price. The nickel inventory has increased by 8,000 tons to 84,500 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remains at 1.016 million tons. The nickel market lacks independent driving factors and is expected to oscillate [10]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices oscillated. The tin market itself has few news. The LME 0 - 3 month spot is at a discount of $76. Shanghai tin is in a relatively high - price area, and the resistance area of 400,000 - 415,000 yuan needs to be observed [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 99,000 tons. The production of lithium carbonate has recovered to a high level at the end of February and early March. The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillates, and the demand change after the end of the March export rush needs to be observed [12]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline. The spot price of N - type re - feed material has dropped to 48,500 yuan/ton. The polysilicon inventory has risen to 348,000 tons. The short - term market is still affected by macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are weakly supportive [13]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of SMM East China 553 industrial silicon has dropped to 9,200 yuan/ton. The supply in March is expected to be 345,000 tons, a 26% month - on - month increase. The downstream performance is differentiated. The short - term price is dominated by macro - sentiment and is expected to oscillate [14]. Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Nighttime steel prices oscillated. The apparent demand for rebar has recovered slowly, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have both decreased, and the inventory pressure is relatively large. The steel price is affected by the Iran situation and the demand in the peak season [15]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures oscillated overnight. The global shipping volume has decreased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has rebounded. The port inventory is at a high level and may enter a seasonal destocking stage. The iron - ore supply and demand have improved marginally, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [16]. Coke - The intraday coke price declined. The spot price has increased. The coking profit is average, and the daily production has slightly decreased. The coke inventory has slightly increased. The coke price may be pushed up by the concern about energy due to geopolitical conflicts [17]. Coking Coal - The intraday coking - coal price oscillated weakly. The spot price has increased. The coking - coal inventory has slightly decreased. The coking - coal price may be affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and is expected to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [18]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price of manganese silicon oscillated weakly. The international conflict has a positive impact on the manganese - ore freight, which is beneficial to the cost side. The demand for iron - water has decreased significantly. The price is likely to oscillate [19]. Silicon Iron - The intraday price of silicon iron oscillated weakly. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased, and the Lanzhou - carbon price has slightly decreased. The demand for iron - water remains at a low level. The supply has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased. The price is likely to oscillate [20]. Group 3: Shipping and Chemicals Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot - market price of Maersk's W13 offer is $2,300/FEU, the same as W12. The price in late March has increased compared to early March, but the subsequent cargo - booking pressure remains. The cost increase may support the freight rate. The short - term and medium - term freight - rate trends are uncertain [21]. Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about the stability of raw - material supply and have adjusted their production plans. The total asphalt production in March is revised to 1.967 million tons. The asphalt price will follow the crude - oil price but with a relatively limited amplitude [22]. Urea - The domestic urea supply is high, and the supply pressure has increased in March. The downstream demand is in the peak season, and the urea price is expected to run stably under the influence of the supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policy [23]. Methanol - The methanol futures price has dropped significantly due to the expected easing of the Middle East situation. The East China port has continued to accumulate inventory. The operation of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remains at a low level [24]. Styrene - The market believes that the Israel - Iran conflict may end earlier than expected, and the international oil price has dropped. The styrene factory has significantly lowered the price, and the market trading is average [25]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market believes that the Israel - Iran conflict may end earlier than expected, and the international oil price has dropped. The demand for propylene has weakened, and the trading atmosphere in the polyethylene and polypropylene markets is general [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The PVC price has dropped from a high level. The inventory of sample enterprises has decreased, but the inventory pressure still exists. The caustic - soda price has dropped from a high level. The industry profit has been significantly repaired, and the supply pressure is large [27]. PX and PTA - The risk premium of PX and PTA continues to decline. The downstream of polyester yarn has stopped purchasing after the raw - material price increase. The short - term focus is on inventory digestion [28]. Ethylene Glycol - The new capacity exerts long - term pressure on ethylene glycol. The port inventory continues to rise. The risk premium of ethylene glycol has declined, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is still uncertain [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - The short - fiber inventory has increased from a low level, and the bottle - chip load has increased from a low level. The market is mainly affected by the Middle East situation and follows the raw - material price decline [30]. Group 4: Building Materials Glass - The glass price has dropped from a high level. The spot price has increased, and the mid - and upstream inventory pressure is large. The downstream resumption of work is slow, and the market may return to fundamental trading after the sentiment fades [31]. 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - The international crude - oil price has fluctuated violently. The global natural - rubber supply is in the low - production season. The domestic tire - starting rate has continued to rise significantly. The strategy is to wait and see [32]. Soda Ash - The soda - ash price has dropped from a high level. The spot price has slightly increased, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased but still has pressure. After the sentiment fades, the strategy of short - selling on the right side can be considered [33]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal - The international oil price has dropped, and the prices of energy, chemicals, oils, and beans have also followed. The USDA monthly report on soybeans is neutral, and the supply of rapeseed is expected to increase. The short - term prices of soybean and rapeseed futures will follow the war situation [34]. Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed - The oil prices have significantly declined following the crude - oil price. The MPOB report on palm oil shows that the inventory is higher than expected. The price of palm oil has become less cost - effective, and the subsequent supply and demand need to be carefully observed [35]. Domestic Soybean - The domestic soybean price is oscillating at a high level. The soybean auction has mostly failed. The price is affected by the crude - oil price and the Middle East situation [36]. Corn - The domestic corn price has slightly increased. The U.S. corn price has followed the crude - oil price decline. The Dalian corn futures will follow the geopolitical factors in the short term and may return to the fundamental - based weak - oscillation mode after the Middle East situation stabilizes [37]. Live Pigs - The live - pig spot price is slightly weak, and the futures price is oscillating. The pig price is in the second - bottoming process, and the inventory pressure needs to be further reduced. The long - term potential support comes from factors such as second - fattening, frozen - meat storage, and capacity reduction [38]. Eggs - The egg spot price is moderately strong, and the futures price has slightly declined. The supply of new - laying hens is expected to be low in the first half of 2026, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on egg futures contracts at low prices [39]. Cotton - The U.S. cotton price has increased, and the USDA monthly report is bearish. The Zhengzhou cotton price is oscillating at a high level. The domestic commercial cotton inventory is being well digested, and the supply is expected to be tight. The short - term trend is oscillating, and cautious operation is recommended [40]. Sugar - The international sugar price is oscillating. India's sugar production has increased significantly, while Thailand's production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar price is under pressure in the short term, and the subsequent production situation needs to be observed [41]. Apples - The apple futures price is oscillating at a high level. The demand in the northwest产区 is good after the festival, but the quality in Shandong is poor, and the inventory is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Wood - The wood futures price is oscillating. The external - market price has increased, and the domestic spot price is relatively weak. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Pulp - The pulp price has significantly declined. The domestic port inventory is at a high level. The overseas pulp price is strong, and the long - term cost has certain support. The mid - term trend is likely to be range - bound [44]. Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market rebounded yesterday, and technology stocks recovered. The stock - index futures contracts all closed up, with IM leading the increase. The geopolitical risk has been alleviated to some extent, and the market sentiment has improved. The RMB exchange rate is relatively strong, and the A - share market is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating pattern [45]. Treasury Bonds - On March 10, the treasury - bond futures showed a narrow - range differentiation. The central bank has increased the net investment. With the decline of oil prices and the reduction of financial risks in the Japanese and South Korean markets, the opportunity to go long on TL can be considered in a loose - liquidity situation [46].
原油价格暴涨,油脂盘面走强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-10 05:47
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral investment rating for the industry [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils strengthened yesterday. The escalating conflict between the US and Iran has significantly affected international crude oil prices, leading to a sharp increase in oil prices and driving up the prices of oils [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,720.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +502 yuan and a change rate of +5.45% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,672.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +260.00 yuan and a change rate of +3.09% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,954.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +288.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.98% compared to the previous day [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,730.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +590.00 yuan and a change rate of +6.46% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was P05 + 10.00, with a change of +88.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 9,000.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +360.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +4.17% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was Y05 + 328.00, with a change of +100.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,550.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +280.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.73% compared to the previous day. The spot basis was OI05 + 596.00, with a change of -8.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Argentina's Soybean Production Forecast - After the dry weather in January, timely rainfall in February stabilized the crop conditions in Argentina. The forecast for the 2025 - 26 soybean production remains at 48 million tons. If the forecast is realized, this year's soybean production in Argentina will be 5% less than the 51.1 million tons in the 2024 - 25 season, but it will still be the fourth - highest level in the past 10 years [2] International Commodity Price Changes - Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) C&F price increased by 11 US dollars/ton to 611 US dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) C&F price increased by 11 US dollars/ton to 618 US dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) C&F price decreased by 44 US dollars/ton to 1,151 US dollars/ton; Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) C&F price decreased by 24 US dollars/ton to 1,139 US dollars/ton [2] - Imported rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) decreased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1,100 US dollars/ton; Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) decreased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1,080 US dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) C&F price increased by 12 US dollars/ton to 531 US dollars/ton; US West soybeans (April shipment) C&F price increased by 12 US dollars/ton to 525 US dollars/ton; Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) C&F price increased by 8 US dollars/ton to 480 US dollars/ton [2] - Imported soybean premium quotes: Gulf of Mexico (April shipment) increased by 9 cents/bushel to 243 cents/bushel; US West Coast (April shipment) increased by 9 cents/bushel to 227 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (April shipment) decreased by 3 cents/bushel to 105 cents/bushel [2]
地缘危机爆发,带动农产品价格上涨
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 12:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the improvement in the export sales of US soybeans, a slight downward adjustment in Brazil's soybean production, and the impact of geopolitical crises, the recent price of CBOT US soybeans has strengthened, driving up the valuation of protein meal. However, the current domestic soybean inventory is relatively high year-on-year, and there is an expectation of a large amount of US soybean purchases in the far - term, which restricts the short - term upward space. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before attempting to buy [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - AgRural and StoneX have both slightly lowered their forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, with AgRural's estimate at 178 million tons (down 3 million tons from the previous forecast) and StoneX's at 177.8 million tons (down 3.8 million tons) [10]. - From February 19th to 26th, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.03 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. The exports to China during the same period were 150,000 tons, and the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.13 million tons [10]. - As of February 27th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress reached 39.66% of the total planting area, 2.38 percentage points higher than the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of February 27th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 12.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.36 million tons, and the port inventory of sample soybeans was 6.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 million tons [10]. - In January, the forecast for the global soybean production in 2025/26 was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared to the previous year. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared to December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to the previous year [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - The multi - empty scores of factors such as the 5 - 7 spread of US soybeans, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and others are evaluated. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before attempting to buy [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion** - Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price** - The report presents the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong through charts [21][22]. - **Basis of the Main Contract** - The basis trends of the May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are shown in the charts [24][25]. - **Inter - monthly Spread** - The 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the charts [27][28]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread** - The spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are shown in the charts [30][31] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress** - The planting progress, emergence rate, leaf - falling rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans are presented through charts [36][37][39][40]. - **Weather Conditions** - The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of the year are shown, along with the weather conditions summary of soybean - producing areas [42][43][45][47]. - **US Soybean Export Progress** - The current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds are presented through charts [53][54][56][57][59][60]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation** - The crushing volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in major oil mills are presented through charts [62][63]. - **Brazil's Soybean Export Situation** - Brazil's monthly export volume of soybeans and exports to China, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipments to China of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, are presented through charts [65][66][68][69][71][72] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory** - The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills are presented through charts [76][77]. - **Protein Meal Inventory** - The inventories of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills are presented through charts [79][80]. - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit** - The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented through charts [82][83] 3.5 Demand Side - **Protein Meal Consumption** - The cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills are presented through charts [86]. - **Breeding Profit** - The per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented through charts [88][89]