1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental pattern of crude oil is dominated by oversupply, leading to a downward shift in the oil - price center, despite geopolitical conflicts causing occasional price spikes [2]. - Precious metals are supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, but short - term adjustments are inevitable due to excessive gains driven by funds [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally show certain trends, with each metal having its own supply - demand and price characteristics. For example, copper prices are affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend [4][5]. - For energy and chemical products, most products face supply - demand imbalances, with some affected by geopolitical factors and some by seasonal and policy factors. For example, fuel oil is affected by geopolitical tensions and high - inventory pressure [22]. - Agricultural products' prices are influenced by factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policies. For example, soybean and bean - related products are affected by South American weather and export situations [36]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows an oscillatingly strong trend, and the bond market has different trends for different - term bonds [48][49]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions increase concerns about supply disruptions, but the market is still dominated by oversupply. EIA predicts a daily increase of over 2 million barrels in global inventories, and the oil - price center is expected to shift downward [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. High - sulfur fuel oil demand may increase, but Singapore's high inventory is a significant pressure. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to recover, and demand remains weak [22]. Asphalt - Commercial inventory de - stocking is weak, and the supply of heavy raw materials is unstable due to the escalating situation between the US and Venezuela, providing bottom - end support for prices [23]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals turned upward. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support their strength, but short - term adjustments are needed due to excessive gains. After volatility decreases, a long - position strategy can be considered [3]. Copper - Overnight, copper prices rebounded, with large short - term price fluctuations near the New Year. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations in 2026. The previous options strategy should be continued, and attention should be paid to refinery production schedules and social inventory changes [4]. Aluminum - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated within a narrow range. After a significant correction, the panic sentiment eased. The fundamental driving force of the aluminum market is insufficient, and the oscillatingly strong trend remains unchanged. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average [5]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum is still in short supply, and the cost in some areas may increase due to tax adjustments. The seasonal spread between casting aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years, maintaining around 1,000 yuan [6]. Alumina - Alumina is in a state of significant oversupply, and the cost has room to decline as the bauxite price falls. The short - term decline in the spot price is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [7]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure of zinc is weakening, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. The consumption outlook in January is moderately optimistic, but the real - estate sector restricts the upside of zinc prices. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [8]. Lead - The maintenance of primary lead smelters continues, and the low social inventory supports the price, but battery enterprises' inventory checks at the end of the year suppress demand. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel & Stainless Steel - Nickel prices rose again, but the spot trading was cold. The Indonesian Nickel Ore Association reduced the ore quota and will modify the mineral benchmark price formula in early 2026. Stainless - steel costs increased due to the rising nickel - iron price, and social inventory decreased. Short - term policy sentiment dominates, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Tin - Shanghai tin rebounded with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the possible mining conference around the New Year. It is recommended to hold a 350,000 - yuan call - selling option and observe the adjustment range [11]. Iron Ore - The supply pressure of iron ore is still large, but with the sign of iron - water production bottoming out and the expectation of steel - mill winter - storage replenishment, the short - term price is supported. However, the positive factors have been reflected in the recent price increase, and the future trend is expected to be oscillatory [16]. Coke - The price oscillated upward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still resilient but with a strong willingness to suppress prices. The price faces fundamental pressure after correcting the premium, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [17]. Coking Coal - The price oscillated upward during the day. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume decreased seasonally, and some domestic coal mines reduced or stopped production. The total coking - coal inventory increased slightly. Similar to coke, it faces fundamental pressure after correcting the discount, and market sentiment is affected by policy expectations [18]. Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. The manganese ore spot price increased. There are structural problems in the port inventory, and the demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. The iron - water production decreased seasonally. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [19]. Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. There are expectations of coal - supply guarantee, which may reduce the power cost and lanthanum - carbon price. The iron - water production rebounded, and the overall demand is still resilient. The supply decreased significantly. It is recommended to try long positions when the price is low [20]. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The spot price of polycrystalline silicon increased slightly. The downstream silicon - wafer production in December was lower than expected, so the production schedule in January may be slightly increased. The battery - cell production is expected to continue to decline in January. The factory inventory is at a high level and continues to accumulate. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Industrial Silicon - The weekly operating rate in the northwest main - production area fluctuated slightly. The demand side is still under pressure, and the demand for polycrystalline silicon may weaken again. The upward momentum of the future price depends on the implementation of production - reduction expectations, and the trend may change from strong oscillation to consolidation [14]. Urea - The urea price oscillated strongly. The supply tightened temporarily, and the production - enterprise inventory decreased significantly. The agricultural procurement slowed down, and the industrial demand was mainly for rigid needs. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price may decline slightly [24]. Methanol - The methanol main - contract price increased with an increase in positions. The import volume is expected to decrease gradually, and the coastal MTO device is approaching the restart time. The medium - term port inventory may enter a de - stocking cycle. The short - term port inventory is accumulating. The medium - term price is expected to be strong [25]. Pure Benzene - The pure - benzene price oscillated at night. The port inventory continued to increase, higher than the same period in previous years. There are expectations of device maintenance and downstream production increase in the future, but the supply may also increase. The short - term price oscillates at the bottom, and the medium - term can consider long - short spreads [26]. Styrene - The cost side does not provide obvious positive driving force for styrene. The supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, which is difficult to boost the price [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The cost pressure on downstream propylene has been slightly relieved, but the demand recovery is limited. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is still weak [28]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows an oscillatingly strong trend. The supply may increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. Caustic soda runs strongly, but the supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand growth is limited, so the upward space is restricted [29]. PX & PTA - The PX price rose due to strong expectations but started to oscillate after a decline. The short - term supply may increase, and the downstream demand may decline. PTA is expected to reduce inventory at a low load, and the processing margin has slightly recovered. The main driving force is the raw material PX [30]. Ethylene Glycol - The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the port inventory increased. The downstream polyester is expected to reduce production around the Spring Festival, and the fundamental situation is weakening. However, the reduction in arrival volume and device load eases the inventory - accumulation pressure. The price oscillates at a low level. The long - term supply pressure is still large [31]. Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips - Short - fiber enterprises' inventory is at a low level, but it is the off - season for demand. The long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively good. Bottle - chip demand has weakened, and the inventory has decreased. The long - term problem of over - capacity exists, and the price is mainly driven by cost [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are running strongly due to environmental - protection pressure and production - capacity reduction. The industry inventory is increasing slightly, and the demand is insufficient. The industry will continue to reduce production capacity, and a new balance is expected to be achieved [33]. Rubber 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - Favorable policies have been introduced, and the international crude - oil price has risen slightly. The global natural - rubber supply is entering the production - reduction period. The demand is average, the natural - rubber inventory is increasing, and the synthetic - rubber inventory is decreasing. The cost support is strengthening. Before the New Year's Day holiday, RU&NR are strong, and BR should be observed [34]. Fertilizers Soda Ash - The soda - ash price is strong due to the call for anti - involution and significant inventory reduction. The production may increase in the future, and the supply pressure is large. The demand for heavy soda ash has slightly declined. The short - term inventory reduction should be observed for sustainability, and the long - term faces oversupply pressure [35]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Bean Meal - This week's soybean crushing volume is expected to decline, and the bean - meal output will decrease. The downstream demand is light, and the inventory may remain high. The South American weather has improved, and the trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American production expectations. The bean - meal price will follow the US soybean price and oscillate at the bottom [36]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Near the holiday, the domestic soybean - oil and palm - oil prices rebounded. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the domestic soybean inventory is high. The palm - oil high - inventory pressure in Malaysia needs to be digested. The short - term macro - atmosphere is optimistic [37]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and the supply - side expectation supports the near - month contracts. The EU's rapeseed supply - demand balance has been slightly adjusted. The market focuses on Australian rapeseed crushing and policies. The short - term strategy is to wait and see [38]. Soybean No.1 - The domestic soybean main - contract price is strong. The auction price provides support, and the spot - purchase price has increased. The South American new - season soybeans are expected to have a good harvest. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [39]. Corn - The northeast and north - port corn prices are strong. The low - temperature weather makes farmers reluctant to sell, and the supply of ground - stored corn is tight. The resumption of low - price old - wheat auctions may suppress the corn price. The Brazilian first - crop corn planting rate is high. The short - term Dalian corn futures will oscillate [40]. Live Pigs - The live - pig 03 - contract price continued to rise, and the spot price increased rapidly due to reduced end - of - month sales and tight large - pig supply. There is still an expectation of second - fattening replenishment in the short term, but the long - term supply pressure is large, and it is recommended to short after the 03 - contract price rebounds [41]. Eggs - The egg - futures price is weakly adjusted. The spot price is in a low - level oscillation range. The 2 - month contract is expected to be weak, and the 4 - and 5 - month contracts in the first half of next year may be strong. The high - premium contracts in the second half of next year may have a complex trading rhythm [42]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose yesterday, and the spot trading was average. Although the new - cotton production has increased significantly this year, the commercial inventory is lower than the same period last year, and the sales progress is fast, providing support for the price. The demand is stable in the off - season. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. The rainfall in Brazil in December increased, and the previous drought was slightly alleviated. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure on US sugar remains. The domestic market focuses on the new - season production. The Guangxi production progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be limited [44]. Apples - The apple - futures price oscillates. The cold - storage trading is light, and the demand has entered the off - season. The market's bearish sentiment has increased, and a bearish strategy is recommended [45]. Wood - The wood - futures price is at a low level. The external - market quotation has decreased, and the domestic spot price is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the port inventory is decreasing. The low inventory provides some support, and it is advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices rose yesterday. The short - term upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The port inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks. The new - year contract, especially the 01 contract, may face less warehouse - receipt pressure. The paper - mill procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and the market game is intense. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index remained flat with ten consecutive positive days. Most stock - index futures contracts rose, and the basis of all contracts was at a discount. The external - market performance was divided. After precious metals shifted from a one - way upward trend to a high - level volatile pattern, the performance of the stock index and other risk assets needs to be observed. The A - share market is expected to be oscillatingly strong, and attention can be paid to the rotation of low - level sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - On December 30, 2025, treasury - bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year bond rose, and the 10 - and 5 - year bonds fell slightly. The ultra - long - term bonds showed an oversold - recovery trend, and the short - term contracts were relatively weak. In the short term, the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds may increase, and it is advisable to participate in the butterfly - spread strategy to make the yield - curve convex [49].

油脂日报 | 2025-12-30 油脂供应充足，盘面持续震荡 油脂观点 风险 政策变化 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8512.00元/吨，环比变化-56元，幅度-0.65%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7818.00 元/吨，环比变化-18.00元，幅度-0.23%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9040.00元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.07%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8490.00元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.59%，现货基差P05-22.00，环比变化+6.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8230.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y05+412.00，环比变 化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9740.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.41%，现货基差OI05+700.00， 环比变化+46.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油（2月船期）C&F价格1140美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油（4月船 期）C&F价格1075美元/吨，与上个交 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【粕类周报】 近强远弱，关注政策变化 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-12-29 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：近强远弱，关注政策变化 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | （1）根据CONAB数据，预测25/26巴西新作产量达到1.776亿吨。截至12月20日，巴西大豆播种率为97.6%，上周为94.1%，去年同期为97.8%，五年均值为 94.9%。根据BAGE，截至12月17日，阿根廷大豆播种进度67.3%，上周值58.6%。大豆作物状况评级良好占比65%，上周值58%，去年同期值70%。根据天 | | | | 气预报，短期无明显天气问题；（2）1月国内大豆、豆粕预期季节性去库；传海关将严控大豆进口到5月底，国内停机现象增多，增加国内对明年5月前豆 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2025年12月28日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 外盘继续承压，加菜籽供需格局未有改变 本周外盘受圣诞节假期影响休市，整体而言未有明显题材出现。加拿大统计局数据显示11月加拿大菜籽 压榨102.1万吨，环比小幅走弱，25/26作物年度累计压榨392万吨，同比小幅增加。在加菜籽整体增产 背景下菜籽压榨没有明显增加，暗示压榨产能及油粕需求存在总量约束。若加菜籽继续维持当前压榨节 奏，25/26年度菜籽期末结转库存进一步上调概率较高。后期需关注1月期间美加经贸谈判进展及加拿大 总理是否公开访华日期安排。 乌克兰物流通道受阻，关注欧盟菜籽进口需求 本周Kernel公司报道12月24-25日夜间俄罗斯袭击了乌克兰敖德萨州的IOFP油脂工厂，系近 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-12-24 产量预期走低，棕榈底部震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8486.00元/吨，环比变化+72元，幅度+0.86%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约7772.00 元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8847.00元/吨，环比变化-17.00元，幅度-0.19%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8430.00元/吨，环比变化+150.00元，幅度+1.81%，现货基差P05-56.00，环比变化 +78.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8190.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.37%，现货基差Y05+418.00， 环比变化+30.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9400.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差 OI05+553.00，环比变化+87.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，欧盟委员会周二公布的数据显示，截至12月21日，欧盟2025/26年度（7月开始） 的大豆进口量已达600万吨，同比下降14%。同期欧盟菜籽进口总量为172万吨，同比下降41%。欧盟豆粕进口量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The official launch of Hainan's free trade port marks a significant shift in the Asia-Pacific trade landscape, directly impacting Singapore's long-standing role as a transshipment hub [1][10]. Group 1: Hainan's Free Trade Port Implementation - Hainan is being developed as a special "open experimental field" with a core rule of "one line open, one line controlled," allowing for easier entry of people, goods, and capital from abroad while regulating goods entering mainland China [3]. - The number of duty-free products has expanded from 1,900 to over 6,600, with the zero-tariff ratio increasing from 21% to 74% [3]. Group 2: Impact on Singapore's Trade - Previously, Southeast Asian goods had to be routed through Singapore to reach mainland China, generating significant revenue for Singapore through transit fees [4]. - Following Hainan's closure, Singapore's transshipment trade volume experienced an 11.3% decline, marking the largest drop in nearly a decade [4]. Group 3: Hainan's Competitive Advantages - Hainan aims not only to capture Singapore's transshipment business but also to attract production by offering tax exemptions for goods that undergo value-added processing of over 30% [5]. - Companies in various sectors, including grain and beef processing, are relocating to Hainan to benefit from reduced production costs and improved customs efficiency [7]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Market Access - Hainan's port, Yangpu, has opened 85 international shipping routes, allowing direct access to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and South America, significantly reducing shipping times and costs [7]. - The direct shipping routes from Hainan to China and other regions have cut transit times by half and reduced costs by over 12% [7]. Group 5: Singapore's Response - Singapore has attempted to lower port fees and streamline customs processes in response to Hainan's rise, but it struggles to compete with Hainan's substantial market and tax incentives [8]. - Hainan's proximity to the vast Chinese market and its tax policies present a competitive edge that Singapore cannot match [8]. Group 6: Future Implications - Hainan's free trade port is reshaping the trade dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region, diminishing Singapore's previous advantages in transshipment trade [10]. - The economic benefits of Hainan's policies are expected to create more job opportunities and enhance economic vitality, further increasing pressure on Singapore [10].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者：正信期货 张翠萍 弱现实主导市场走势，三大油脂纷纷破前低支撑，豆棕油回落至7月初水平，菜油回吐中加贸易争端以 来所有涨幅。 棕榈油：产业数据不佳，政策端缺乏指引 马来供应压力期尚未结束。得益于2024年4季度及2025年1季度降水充足，2025年印马棕榈油产量恢复。 2025年2季度起马来油棕果及毛棕单产快速恢复，4、5、9、11月均创近10年同期最高水平，2025年前11 个月马棕累计产量1845万吨，同比增3.4%，为2020年以来最高水平。而同期出口需求低迷，前11个月 累计出口1389万吨，同比降9.2%，近18年同期第2低；12月高频数据马棕出口继续下滑10%以上。供增 需减，10-11月马棕逆趋势累库，截止11月末已达2019年3月以来的最高水平283.5万吨，预计2026年马 棕库存中枢水平较过去几年整体抬升。 2025年前10个月印尼毛棕累计产量4394万吨，同比增近10%；6-8月棕榈油产量较高，9月大幅回落进行 修正，10月有所回升不过仍处于近几年同期低位。前10个月累计消费2066万吨，同比增5.2%；其中生 柴端累 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2025年12月21日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 本周受大豆拍卖加速、加拿大官员可能访华信息刺激，菜系油粕表现偏弱，其中菜油受美国EIA政策发 布推迟及日元加息、原因走弱等宏观题材影响，大幅下行。总体来看，目前菜系油粕走势反映出重 新"国际化"的趋势，但菜籽进口的潜在高榨利仍使单边估值承压明显。 ICE菜籽创新低 近期外盘ICE菜籽下跌加速，01合约已经接近580加元/吨关口，12月至今下跌接近70加元/吨。外盘菜籽 走弱主要受到AAFC12月报告将25/26年度结转库存上调至295万吨影响。值得注意的是，加拿大官方将 25/26出口目标从700万吨调整到800万吨，同时压榨保持在1200万吨。从目前出口进度情况来看，800万 吨的目 ...

Group 1: Changes for Businesses and Individuals - The official closure of Hainan Island on December 18, 2025, has led to significant changes, allowing companies to process imported goods like soybeans and beef without high tariffs, saving substantial costs that are reinvested in production and hiring [2] - Consumers are benefiting from lower prices on luxury items, such as BMW cars, and an expanded range of duty-free products, enhancing their quality of life [4] - The introduction of high-end medical services and equipment locally has made healthcare more accessible for residents [4] Group 2: Open Policy Management - Hainan's approach to "closure" is not about isolation but rather facilitating smoother entry and exit for goods and people, with over 80 countries and regions able to visit without visas [6] - To prevent policy loopholes, goods enjoying tax exemptions must be declared when leaving the island, and vehicles can only remain on the mainland for 120 days per year, ensuring a balanced interaction between the island and the mainland [8] - The core of Hainan's policy is to balance openness and control, attracting resources and talent while protecting the national tax system [12] Group 3: Unique Competitive Position - Hainan is not competing with Hong Kong as a free port; instead, it focuses on serving the domestic market by attracting global resources for local output [14] - The tax policies and measures in Hainan aim to foster growth in innovation, manufacturing, tourism, and high-tech industries [14] - Hainan's strategy is complementary to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with Hainan focusing on production and application while the Bay Area emphasizes research and innovation [16] Group 4: Exploration and Development - Hainan is establishing itself as a new model of openness, not by mimicking Hong Kong but by creating its own path, with policies continuously evolving based on practical needs [18] - The goal is to serve as a practical open channel for domestic residents and businesses, aligning consumer needs with entrepreneurial motivation while showcasing a new form of Chinese openness to the world [18] - Hainan is transforming into a crucial tropical window connecting domestic and international markets, with these changes occurring in real-time [18]