本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国内外蛋白粕与油脂期货市场行情热点回顾】近日，国内外蛋白粕与油脂期货市场有诸多动态。在大 豆系与菜籽系粕类油脂方面，加拿大谷物委员会数据显示，07月06日当周，加拿大油菜籽出口量锐减 72.1%，从前一周的17.35万吨降至4.84万吨。 USDA最新干旱报告表明，截至7月8日当周，约9%的美国 大豆种植区域受干旱影响，前一周为8%，去年同期也是8%。7月10日，机构称2025年8 - 10月维持 ENSO中性概率达56%，此后维持中性和转拉尼娜概率接近持平。 7月10日，有机构表示美产区大部天 气接近理想，利于作物生长。预报显示未来1W美产区有间歇性隆雨，大部温度适宜，中北部偏低；未 来2W降雨强度和频率或略降，温度略偏高。 巴西农业部下属公司CONAB 7月预测数据显示，预计 2024/25年度巴西大豆产量达1.694879亿吨，同比增加2176.66万吨。USDA数据显示，截至7月3日当周， 24/25美豆周度出口净销增至50.3万吨，累计销售5044万吨，同比增562万吨，进度100.18%；25/26美豆 周度出口净销24.84万吨，累计 ...

中国期货每日简报 Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/11 China Futures Daily Note 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: SAMR emphasizes strengthening fair competition review. Futures Prices: On ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is showing a predominantly positive trend, with rapeseed meal futures experiencing a price increase of 1.46% [1][2] - The main rapeseed meal futures contract opened at 2610.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 2646.00 CNY and a low of 2610.00 CNY during the trading session [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor compared to alternatives [2] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with some expecting price pressure due to the influx of Brazilian soybeans and tight supply of old-season rapeseed [2] - The low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal are contributing to short-term price fluctuations [2] - The market is currently observing a wait-and-see approach regarding the outcomes of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere [2]

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/10 报告前瞻：调查显示分析师平均预计美国 一项调查显示，分析师平均预计美国2024/25年度大豆年未库存料为3.58亿蒲式耳。 美国2025/26年度大豆产量料为43.34亿蒲式耳，单产料为52.5蒲式耳 英亩。 全球2025/26年度大豆年未库存料为1.2631亿吨；全球2025/26年度玉米年末库存料为2.7746亿吨。 巴西2024/25年度大豆产量料为1.6925亿吨，阿根廷2024/25年度大豆产量料为4,927万吨。 美国农业部定于 月11日1600GMT（北京时间 月12日00:00）公布 月作物供需报告。 年度油菜籽产量预计为 一项大宗商品研究报告显示，欧盟27 英国2025/26年度油菜籽产量预计为2,030万吨，预估区间介于1,930万吨至 2,130万吨。 在过去两周，欧洲国家气温较正常高出1-6摄氏度，大多数地区的降雨量低于平均水平，引发了对法国、德国和波 兰干旱的担忧。只有西班牙和英国的降雨量高于均值，雨量较正常高9-30毫米。 最新的气象预报显示，欧洲西部和中部地区本周末之前天气较为凉爽，未来两周气温则较高。预计欧洲西部和中部 将 ...

农产品期权 2025-07-11 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品有所转弱，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖延续偏弱， 棉花温和上涨，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

| | ル期現日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月11日 | | | 王涛庭 | Z0019938 | | 田和 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8170 | 8170 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2509 7944 | 7920 | 24 | 0.30% | | 县差 | Y2509 226 | 250 | -24 | -9.60% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 09 + 210 | 09 +210 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 22725 | 22826 | -101 | -0.44% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 8670 | 8700 | -30 | -0.34% | | 期价 | P2509 8638 | 8678 | -40 | -0.46% | | 墓差 | P2509 32 | 22 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have eased, which affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that Malaysia's palm oil export data for this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as the production season begins, palm oil supply will increase [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,214, with a basis of 270, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20-day moving average, while the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the future [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,836, with a basis of 198, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,450 - 8,850 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,585, with a basis of 117, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is trading above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5].

研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 联系人 白旭宇 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|卫星农业专题 2025-07-11 卫星遥感监测产量预估及重点天气分析报告 内容摘要 2025 年 6 月全球重点农产品产量预估及生长状况监测显示，2025 年 6 月全球重点农产 品产量及长势监测显示，多数产区状况稳定，部分区域受天气影响存在风险。美国大 豆、玉米产区整体天气良好，中西部短期偏干后缓解，产量稳定；北达科他因降水不 足长势较差。美国棉花产区水热条件优越，长势多呈上升趋势，但德州 7 月初极端降 水可能带来影响。东南亚棕榈油产区 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月10日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力止跌反弹之后，目前价格小幅震荡排回。本周东北地区大部气温偏高，降水偏多，土壤摘情适宜。预计未来一 周,大豆产区天气对作物生长有利。本周政策端进行了购销双向交易,成交情况好。进口大豆方面未来一周美豆产区天气利于 作物生长。短期持续关注天气和政策的指引。 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 农产品日报 【 ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年7月10日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王速棒 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | 7月9日 | 7月8日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8170 | 8130 | 40 | 0.49% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7920 | 7946 | -26 | -0.33% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 250 | 184 | ୧୧ | 35.87% | | | 现货基差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09+210 | 09+210 | 0 | - | | | 仓車 | | 22826 | 22963 | -137 | -0.60% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 7月9日 | 7月8日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8700 | 8550 | 120 | 1.75% | | | 期价 ...