欧洲企业第三季度在很大程度上顶住了悲观的盈利预期，业绩指引上调次数远超下调次数。尽管面临关税和汇率波动压力，欧洲企业仍实现了超预期的利润 率。这与更加清晰的贸易政策同步出现，使企业能够对未来的成本和盈利轨迹更具信心。 对财报电话会议记录的分析显示，提及关税的次数较第一、第二季度有所下降。策略师Kaidi Meng与Laurent Douillet在报告中指出："整体基调变得更积极， 关于供应链、通胀和经济复苏的讨论日趋乐观。" 今年夏季，美国与欧盟达成15%关税税率的贸易协议，而德国默克集团(Merck KGaA)等企业也与美国政府就特定协议进行了谈判。此外，作为遭受最高关税 冲击的发达经济体，瑞士刚刚与特朗普政府达成初步协议，将惩罚性关税从39%降至15%。 不过，部分行业仍在贸易紧张局势中挣扎。为汽车和建筑行业提供橡胶与塑料部件的Hexpol AB是欧洲斯托克600指数成分股公司中提及不确定性次数最多 的公司。该公司首席执行官Klas Dahlberg在财报电话会议上表示："美国关税及贸易政策持续引发高度不确定性，这对我们造成间接冲击。"他解释称，关税 政策已损害北美客户利益并抑制需求。 欧洲企业正在摆脱 ...

【基本面消息】 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 11月18日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 918.52 | -1.33% | 236915 | 90872 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【机构观点】 大有期货：近期贵金属市场呈现多空拉锯格局，预计将维持区间震荡。短期来看，美联储官员持续释放 鹰派信号，强调对通胀回落进程的担忧并反对短期内降息，这一立场支撑美元与美债收益率，令无息资 产黄金承压。然而，市场下方仍存在稳固支撑：一方面，美国白宫宣布对多项进口食品实施关税豁免， 同时美瑞协议也降低部分关税，这类贸易政策的调整虽局部缓和供应链压力，但也反映出全球贸易环境 仍处于复杂博弈之中，不确定性并未消除；另一方面，地缘政治紧张态势持续激发市场的避险需求。整 体而言，贵金属在货币政策压力与避险支撑之间寻求平衡，短期内难有趋势性突破，投资者正密切关注 贸易政策动向与通胀数据的进一步指引。 白宫表示，美国总统特朗普周五签署一项行政令，针对今年早些时候对几乎所有国家征收的全面关税， 豁免包括 ...

（央视财经《天下财经》）当地时间14日，加拿大总理卡尼表示，美国关税政策及其带来的不确定性将使加拿大损失约1.8%的国内生产总 值。"美国已经改变了"，如果加拿大不采取行动，损失只会更大，加拿大必须对美关税政策作出回应。 美国总统特朗普7月31日签署行政令，要求从8月1日起，将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。特朗普10月23日宣布，中止与加拿 大的贸易谈判，原因是他对安大略省政府赞助的一条广告不满。特朗普指责加拿大"欺骗性地"声称美国前总统里根反对关税。对于特朗普 的言论，加拿大总理卡尼表示，加拿大随时准备与美国重启并推进贸易谈判，但无法控制美国的贸易政策。 转载请注明央视财经 编辑：潘煦 加拿大总理 卡尼：美国关税政策及其造成的不确定性将使加拿大损失约1.8%的国内生产总值，换算下来，相当于我们的经济将损失约500 亿加元（约2531亿元人民币）。也就是说，每个加拿大人，无论男女老少，都将因此损失1300加元。如果我们现在不采取行动，这些损失 只会越来越大，沉湎于过去并不是应对之策。美国已经改变了，这是他们的权利，但我们必须作出回应。 卡尼表示，加拿大政府将通过改革运作方式、拓展贸易伙伴等方式推 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the clarity of U.S. President Trump's trade and fiscal policies is increasing, prompting investors to assess the impact of these policies on inflation, the economy, and monetary policy [1] - The actual tariff rates between the U.S. and its major trading partners are projected to be between 10% and 20%, a significant increase from 2.5% at the beginning of 2025 [1] - Although tariff increases have not yet significantly impacted the U.S. economy, they may dampen consumer spending, economic growth, and corporate profits [1] - Inflationary pressures from tariffs are expected to ease next year, while economic activity remains robust with only slight declines in real-time economic indicators [1] - AI-related spending is strong, offsetting the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing and real estate sectors [1] - Factors such as tariff increases, corporate tax rate cuts, and strict immigration policies are keeping inflation expectations high, raising concerns about rising prices affecting corporate earnings and consumer sentiment [1] - The job market is a point of concern, particularly for small businesses that account for over 70% of U.S. employment but have weaker pricing power and are sensitive to economic and interest rate changes, potentially facing layoffs [1] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are focused on international value stocks and small-cap stocks, especially in regions with increased fiscal spending and accommodative monetary policies [2] - European and UK stock markets appear attractive, while U.S. growth stocks may benefit from the AI boom, providing a buffer if the economy weakens due to their solid fundamentals [2] - Stocks linked to real assets, such as energy and metals, have historically served as effective hedges against inflation [2] - The development of AI and rising electricity demand may stimulate industrial metal demand, with some metals facing supply constraints [2] - The issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds to address deficit spending may put upward pressure on yields [2] - Due to inflation concerns and the level of U.S. public debt, there is a cautious stance on long-duration U.S. Treasuries as a hedge during economic downturns [2] - In fixed income investments, there is a preference for shorter-duration assets and short-term Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [2]

特朗普的这一决定虽然从经济角度看是合理的，但对中国的态度早已成为美国国内政治的敏感话题。民主党一直在对特朗普的每个举动进行批评，只要特朗 普有所表态，就可能被批评为对华软弱。因此，最终由美国防长赫格塞斯出面表态，避免特朗普在公众面前被指责，而让他躲在幕后，不给民主党留下攻击 的机会。 然而，美国并没有完全放软态度，虽然在贸易方面放宽了限制，但在科技领域却加大了施压。赫格塞斯一方面公开表示中美关系变得更好，另一方面则在亚 太地区加强了军舰部署，并且在科技上继续加强限制。 美国防长赫格塞斯最近表示，"中美关系正处于最好时期"，这一言论引起了国际媒体的广泛关注。几天前，他的态度完全不同，三天前，他还在东京宣 称"要联合盟友共同威慑中国"；可转身来到东南亚安全会议时，他的立场却发生了明显变化。 美国目前面临着内部混乱的局面，政府已经停摆了一段时间，虽然这对美国并不算新鲜事，但更严重的问题是民生领域的困境。纽约布鲁克林的食品银行门 前，排队的民众已经排成了几百米长。若情况继续拖下去，全国三分之二的食品银行都可能停止运营，几百万家庭将面临严重的饥饿危机。 除了民众的不满，军心也是美国面临的另一大隐忧。虽然五角大楼强调"作 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including stock index futures, Treasury bond futures, precious metals, shipping index futures, and multiple metal and agricultural product futures. It provides market conditions, influencing factors, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks in different sectors. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market condition: A-shares showed resilience, with major indices rebounding after an early decline. Most major contracts of the four stock index futures closed higher, and the basis discount of the main contracts widened. Power resource-related industries performed well, while technology sectors corrected [2][3]. - News: The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Overseas, the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicated potential interest rate hikes [3][4]. - Capital: On November 5, the trading volume in the A-share market decreased slightly. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - Operation suggestion: With unclear market directions and cold trading sentiment, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Most Treasury bond futures closed lower, with minor changes in the yields of major interest rate bonds in the interbank market [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank liquidity was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate remained stable [5][6]. - Operation suggestion: The upward trend of Treasury bond futures driven by the central bank's bond purchases has paused. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 10-year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB and consider positive arbitrage strategies [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: The US Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large-scale tariffs. US employment data improved slightly, and the government shutdown affected market liquidity [7][8]. - Market situation: Precious metals stopped falling and rebounded. Gold closed at $3,978.75 per ounce, up 1.21%, and silver closed above $48 per ounce, up 1.79% [9]. - Outlook: In the medium to long term, precious metals are expected to enter a bull market, but there may be a 2 - 3 month consolidation period after reaching new highs. Short-term gold is expected to trade between $3,900 - $4,030, and silver between $47 - $49 [9][10]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Route) - Spot price: As of November 4, the freight quotes for Shanghai - Europe routes varied among different shipping companies [11]. - Shipping index: As of November 3, the SCFIS European route index decreased, while the US West route index increased. As of October 31, the SCFI composite index increased [11]. - Fundamentals: As of November 4, the global container shipping capacity increased year-on-year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated upward, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,800 - 2,000 points [12]. - Operation suggestion: Buy on dips for the December contract in the short term [12]. Commodity Futures - Non-ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the premium/discount showed mixed changes. Market sentiment was still cautious [12]. - Macro: The US dollar index strengthened, suppressing copper prices. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the Trump tariff case was under review [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate remained low. In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand for copper showed strong resilience, with more purchase orders released after price corrections [14]. - Inventory: LME, COMEX, and domestic social inventories of copper increased [15]. - Logic: The short - term rise in copper prices may suppress demand, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the support at 84,000 and the resistance at 86,500 [16]. Aluminum Oxide - Spot: On November 5, the spot prices of aluminum oxide in different regions showed mixed trends, with a generally loose supply pattern and a weakening price [16]. - Supply: In October, the production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased year - on - year. The operating capacity decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation in November [17]. - Inventory: In October, the inventories of aluminum oxide at ports, factories, and electrolytic aluminum plants increased [17]. - Logic: The price of aluminum oxide is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 2,750 - 2,900 yuan/ton [18][19]. Aluminum - Spot: On November 5, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium/discount also declined, with limited actual transactions [20]. - Supply: In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased, and the operating capacity remained stable. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may decline slightly in November [20]. - Demand: In the traditional peak season, the weekly operating rates of downstream aluminum processing products declined [20]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of aluminum ingots increased, while LME inventories decreased [21]. - Logic: The short - term price of aluminum will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals. Pay attention to the resistance at 21,500 yuan/ton [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [23]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On November 5, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased, with weak spot trading [23]. - Supply: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate rose. It is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in October [23]. - Demand: In October, demand showed a mild recovery, but the transmission of terminal demand was not smooth, and high prices suppressed purchasing willingness [24]. - Inventory: In October, the social inventory of aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [24]. - Logic: The price of ADC12 is expected to remain strongly volatile, with the main contract trading between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton [25][26]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Consider arbitrage strategies [26]. Zinc - Spot: On November 5, the average price of zinc ingots decreased, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [26]. - Supply: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased. From January to October, the cumulative production of refined zinc increased. It is expected that the processing fees will continue to decline in November [27]. - Demand: The operating rates of primary zinc processing industries were generally stable, and overall demand showed no significant improvement [28]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventories of zinc decreased, while LME inventories remained stable [28]. - Logic: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the fundamentals may limit further upward movement. It may continue to trade within a range [29]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 22,300 - 23,000 yuan/ton [29]. Tin - Spot: On November 5, the price of tin decreased, and the spot premium remained unchanged. The market transaction improved slightly [29]. - Supply: In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased, and tin ingot imports also declined. The supply from Myanmar showed signs of improvement [30]. - Demand: The demand for tin remained weak, with a decline in orders in the solder industry. Although some new fields drove tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the shortfall [31][32]. - Inventory: LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [31]. - Logic: Considering the strong fundamentals, it is recommended to hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips. Pay attention to the supply recovery in Myanmar [32]. - Operation suggestion: Hold long positions at low levels and buy on dips [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of November 5, the average price of electrolytic nickel decreased, and the import price also declined [32]. - Supply: In the capacity expansion cycle, the production of refined nickel decreased slightly in October but remained at a high level [33]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries was stable, while the demand from stainless steel was average. The demand for nickel sulfate showed signs of improvement in the short term but faced challenges in the medium term [33]. - Inventory: LME inventories remained high, while domestic social inventories decreased slightly, and bonded area inventories declined [33]. - Logic: The nickel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and Indonesian policies [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, and the basis increased [36]. - Raw materials: The price of nickel ore remained firm, while the price of nickel iron decreased. The chromium iron market was weak, and the cost support declined [36]. - Supply: In September and October, the production of stainless steel increased. The production of the 300 - series remained at a high level [37]. - Inventory: Social inventories decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts declined [37]. - Logic: The stainless steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract trading between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - level changes and steel mill supply [38]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [38][39]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the trading volume was weak [39]. - Supply: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased. Recently, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene decreased slightly, while that from mica remained stable [40][42]. - Demand: The overall demand was optimistic, with an increase in production schedules in the iron - lithium and ternary sectors. Pay attention to the demand after November [40][42]. - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with a reduction in smelter and downstream inventories [41]. - Logic: The short - term fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has shifted. The price is expected to fluctuate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate between 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [42][43]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price of steel was weak, and the basis strengthened [43]. - Cost and profit: The cost of iron elements had weak support, while the cost of carbon elements had support. Profits from high to low were billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [43]. - Supply: From January to September, the production of iron elements increased. In October, the growth rate slowed down, and the output of the five major steel products increased slightly [43]. - Demand: Domestic demand expectations were weak, while exports remained high. The apparent demand for steel increased [44]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products decreased, and it is expected that the inventory center will increase year - on - year but decrease month - on - month [44]. - Viewpoint: The 1 - month contract has a loose supply of iron elements. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of November 5, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [46]. - Futures: The main contract of iron ore increased slightly, while the far - month contract decreased. The 1 - 5 spread widened [47]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was positive [48]. - Demand: The daily consumption of imported iron ore decreased, and the profitability of steel mills declined [49]. - Supply: Global iron ore shipments decreased, while the arrivals at 45 ports increased significantly [50]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, the daily port clearance volume increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [51]. - Viewpoint: The iron ore market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [52]. Coking Coal - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coking coal futures rebounded, and the prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal were strong [53]. - Supply: The production of coking coal increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [54]. - Demand: The production of coke increased slightly, while the iron - making output decreased significantly. The demand for coking coal from steel mills weakened [55]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, with inventory reductions in mines, ports, and washing plants, and inventory increases in coking plants and steel mills [55]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [55]. Coke - Spot and futures: As of November 5, coke futures rebounded, and the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented [56]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was negative, but the loss narrowed after the price increase [56]. - Supply: The price of coking coal increased, providing cost support for coke. The production of coke increased slightly [57]. - Demand: Due to environmental restrictions, the iron - making output decreased, and the demand for coke from steel mills was suppressed [57]. - Inventory: The overall inventory of coke increased slightly, with inventory increases in coking plants and ports and inventory decreases in steel mills [57]. - Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [58]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: On November 5, the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [59]. - Fundamentals: The State Council adjusted tariff measures on US imports. Bangladesh agreed to purchase US soybeans, and the estimated soybean yield in the US was adjusted [59][60]. - Market outlook: The adjustment of tariffs on US imports boosted the prices of US soybeans and domestic futures. The cost support for domestic soybean meal has increased [60][61]. Live Pigs - Spot: The spot price of live pigs was weak, with a decline in prices in various regions [62]. - Market data: The profit of live pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly [62]. - Market outlook: The market supply is loose, and the pig price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and operate with caution [63]. Corn - Spot price: On November 5, the prices of corn in Northeast China and North China showed different trends, with light market transactions [64]. - Fundamentals: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port decreased slightly, while the corn inventory increased [64]. - Market outlook: The supply pressure remains, and the upward movement of the corn price is limited [64].

Group 1 - A-share market environment remains positive with overall profit levels showing steady growth, particularly in the technology sector, where net profit increased by 11.30% year-on-year in Q3 [2][5] - The technology sector's performance is highlighted by significant profit growth in software services (121.6%) and semiconductors (46.6%) [5][6] - Other industries such as steel, media, and building materials also showed substantial improvement in profitability [5][6] Group 2 - The reduction of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is evident as the U.S. Senate passed a resolution to terminate comprehensive tariff policies, signaling a decrease in external disturbance factors [7] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a potential further cut in December, is expected to benefit the Chinese economy by improving external demand and attracting capital inflow [8] - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. may stabilize the RMB exchange rate and reduce capital outflow pressure, potentially attracting more international capital into Chinese asset markets [8] Group 3 - The market is entering a "vacuum period," characterized by a lack of major catalysts for significant index movements, but investor sentiment remains optimistic with high financing balances [9][10] - Despite the market's current fluctuations, structural opportunities still exist, particularly in traditional industries and the technology sector [10] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced perspective during this period, using it as an opportunity to adjust investment portfolios [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. The current pattern of strong meal and weak oil in the beans and oils market persists [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The consensus on expanding agricultural product imports reached in the Sino - US leaders' meeting has boosted short - term sentiment. However, the market is still in a situation of "strong supply and weak demand". Only when trade policy breakthroughs resonate with seasonal demand recovery can the market break free from this situation. The futures price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly but faces pressure at the upper limit of the range [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The main pressure on the palm oil market comes from the expected 10% year - on - year increase in Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to about 56 - 57 million tons, and weak exports of Malaysian palm oil. The optimistic expectations from Sino - US negotiations cannot offset the industrial chain pressure. The futures price of palm oil has fallen below the lower limit of the previous oscillating range and will continue to be weak [7] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Core Viewpoint - The global risk assets experienced a halt in their upward momentum, with major stock indices in Asia and Europe declining, attributed to profit-taking after significant gains that led to historical highs [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Asian stock markets saw collective declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.22%, Shenzhen Component down 0.44%, and the Hang Seng Index down 0.33% [3][4]. - European indices also opened lower, with the DAX30 down 0.21% and CAC40 down 0.1% as of 17:00 Beijing time [4]. - Cryptocurrency markets faced declines, with Bitcoin down 0.6% and Ethereum nearly 1%, resulting in over 110,000 liquidations in the past 24 hours [4]. Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced significant drops, with gold falling over 2% at one point, trading below $3900 per ounce, and silver down 1.97% to $45.89 per ounce [1][4]. - Analysts from Heraeus indicated that the adjustment in precious metal prices could last for several months, although they expect a potential continuation of the upward trend if investor interest remains strong [5][6]. Demand and Future Outlook - Despite recent price declines, global retail demand for gold remains robust, and gold ETF holdings have not shown significant declines, indicating sustained investor interest [6]. - Analysts predict that ongoing economic uncertainty will continue to support gold prices, with Metals Focus forecasting an average gold price of $4560 per ounce next year, reflecting a 33% increase from the current average [6][7]. - Morgan Stanley's commodity strategist anticipates that gold prices could exceed $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by persistent demand from investors and central banks [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is influenced by Sino - US trade negotiations. The market trading sentiment has returned to rationality. The short - term cost - push logic has replaced the supply logic, and the soybean meal futures price shows an oscillatingly strong trend. There is no clear trend direction in the short - term, and it will run oscillatingly [5][6]. - The palm oil market is affected by the weak international oil market. The core contradiction lies in the significant inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil and the weak domestic demand. The short - term futures price is oscillatingly weak and is testing the support of the previous low [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term (within a week): oscillating; Medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillating; Intraday: oscillatingly strong; Reference view: oscillatingly strong [5]. - **Core Logic**: With the initial consensus of Sino - US trade negotiations, the market focuses on China's soybean purchase quantity and schedule from the US. The domestic near - end market is under supply pressure and cautious downstream procurement. The far - end market focuses on soybean purchase progress and South American weather. The market expects trade policy adjustment and the boost of the fourth - quarter demand season. The cost - push logic has replaced the supply logic in the short - term [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillatingly weak; Reference view: oscillatingly weak [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The weak international oil market has intensified the bearish sentiment in the domestic palm oil market. Although the rebound of CBOT soybean oil and the rise of crude oil prices provide some support, they cannot offset the negative impact of supply pressure. The core contradiction is the significant inventory pressure in Malaysia and weak domestic demand [7].