Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of Trump's protectionist trade policies on export-driven economies like South Korea, indicating a potential disruption in global supply chains and a warning for other export-oriented economies [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Data and Economic Impact - South Korea's exports fell by 5.2% year-on-year in the first 20 days of April, contrasting sharply with a 5.5% growth in March, signaling the adverse effects of U.S. trade policies [1]. - Exports to the U.S. and China decreased by 14.3% and 3.4%, respectively, while exports to the EU increased by 13.8% [1]. - Key sectors such as automotive exports declined by 6.5%, while semiconductor exports grew by 10.7% [1]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump's recent tariffs on metal and automotive imports pose risks to South Korea's export-driven economy, with a 25% tariff on cars and a 10% tariff on other imports [2]. - The potential imposition of tariffs on semiconductors could further threaten South Korea's key export sector [7]. Group 3: Economic Forecasts and Central Bank Response - The Bank of Korea has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% but warned of increased downside risks to economic growth due to trade policies [7][8]. - The central bank noted that the overall export momentum is weak, with a possibility of negative growth in the first quarter due to U.S. trade policies and domestic uncertainties [8].