Workflow
全球债务高增长
icon
Search documents
全球债务持续高增长|新刊亮相
清华金融评论· 2026-02-09 11:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuous high growth of global debt driven by geopolitical conflicts, globalization restructuring, and structural factors such as aging populations and economic slowdown, leading governments to increase debt to stabilize growth and hedge public risks [4][9]. Group 1: Impact of High Global Debt - The high debt burden threatens fiscal sustainability, as accumulating long-term deficits and rigid interest payments squeeze public services and structural transformation space, putting some economies in a dilemma of either borrowing or tightening debt repayment [5][9]. - The risk of debt defaults affects the stability of the global financial system, as doubts about sovereign debt sustainability undermine the safety of government bonds in developed economies, amplifying market volatility [5][9]. - The continuous growth of debt constrains the effectiveness of global economic governance, as rising financing costs and diminishing marginal returns weaken the momentum of growth driven by debt, limiting the decision-making space for fiscal and monetary policies [5][9]. Group 2: Solutions to the Debt Dilemma - Addressing the debt dilemma requires a dual approach: improving the global economic governance system to reduce the frequency and intensity of external shocks, and enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness to cultivate endogenous economic growth [6][9]. - China adopts a strategy of "debt reduction through development" to ensure overall debt risk remains controllable, with government debt levels significantly lower than those of major economies and emerging markets [6][9]. - Continuous efforts are made to prevent and resolve local government debt risks, optimize fund flows, and improve the efficiency of debt fund usage, resulting in the formation of high-quality assets that effectively support economic balance and structural adjustment [6][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the future, China needs to deeply understand the global debt cycle and risk transmission mechanisms to balance debt control and economic growth, achieving dynamic equilibrium between stable growth and risk prevention [7][9]. - As a participant and builder of the global economic order, China's high-quality development can enhance its economic resilience and provide stability and security to global debt governance and economic rebalancing [7][9].