记者丨胡光旗 编辑丨洪晓文 视频丨王学权 3月5日，十四届全国人大四次会议在人民大会堂开幕。对于今年发展主要预期目标，政府工作 报告提出， 经济增长4.5%—5%，在实际工作中努力争取更好结果。 对于"十五五"时期的主要目标指标，政府工作报告提出，经济发展方面，围绕增长、结构、效 率提出3项指标。其中，综合考虑国内外形势和各方面因素，兼顾需要与可能，提出国内生产 总值增长保持在合理区间、各年度视情提出，为到2035年人均国内生产总值比2020年翻一 番、达到中等发达国家水平打好基础。 通过社会经济发展预期目标的制定以提升宏观经济治理效能是我国经济发展中的一项重要经 验。今年的经济增长目标定为"4.5%-5%"，体现出尽力而为、量力而行、尊重规律的宏观政策 导向。 其次，也要重视增长目标区间的下限。目前国内外经济面临的超预期因素还比较多，美伊冲突 再起、油价快速上行可能引发全球通胀上行和经济增长挑战，国际贸易摩擦可能会对全球贸易 和需求的稳定性形成冲击。与此同时，国内大循环的内生动力还需要持续强化，"供强需弱"的 问题还需要尽快通过相互协同的宏观政策予以解决。考虑到这些情况，4.5%作为区间的下 限，合乎当前发 ...

实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程。"十 四五"时期，我国经济在攻坚克难中稳步前行、向新向优，经济总量连续 迈上新台阶，经济实力、科技实力、综合国力明显提升，中国式现代化迈 出新的坚实步伐。"十五五"时期，我国发展环境面临深刻复杂变化，战略 机遇和风险挑战并存，不确定难预料因素增多，国内外多重压力与冲击使 得周期性问题更趋复杂。 实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程。"十四五"时期，我国经济在攻坚克难中稳步前行、向新向优，经济总量连续迈上新台 阶，经济实力、科技实力、综合国力明显提升，中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐。同时，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，在市场建设、科技创 新、动能转换、创业就业、收入分配等方面还存在制约经济高质量发展的障碍。深入分析不难发现，这些障碍与我国经济发展如影随形，是我国经济发展 周期性、结构性和体制性问题相互交织的体现和结果。"十五五"时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期，具有承前启后的重要地 位。面对更多逆风逆水的内外部环境，着力破解经济发展面临的周期性、结构性和体制性问题，有利于巩固拓展优势、破除瓶颈制约、补 ...

记者｜王峰 编辑｜张星 3月3日下午，全国政协十四届四次会议新闻发布会召开，全国两会时间正式开启。 今年全国两会的经济热点有哪些？"十五五"开局之年将有何重要部署？21世纪经济报道记者从这场发布会上，以及代表委员专家们 的建议中梳理出五大关键词：宏观经济治理、智能经济、投资于人、扩大消费、改革开放。 宏观经济治理：加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 "过去一年，外部环境风高浪急，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活力，" 全国政协十四届四次会议新闻发言 人刘结一在3月3日发布会上说，"虽然还面临一些老问题、新挑战，但基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和 基本趋势没有变。" 2025年，我国经济总量迈上140万亿元新台阶，增速在全球主要经济体中继续保持前列。中央经济工作会议提出，2026年经济工作 在政策取向上，要加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。 十四届全国人大四次会议将审议政府工作报告，其中会明确2026年增长目标、财政政策和货币政策基调。2023年至2025年，我国 已连续三年将增长目标设为5%左右，2026年是否会调整？ 中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊近日表示，2026 ...

3月3日下午，全国政协十四届四次会议新闻发布会在人民大会堂一层新闻发布厅举行。大会新闻发言人刘 结一向中外媒体介绍本次大会有关情况并回答记者提问。 经济日报记者： 2025年中国经济实现了5%的增长，经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成。但舆论也关注外部不确 定因素和国内供强需弱等问题给中国经济发展带来的影响。您如何看待当前经济形势和发展前景？全国政协围 绕巩固经济稳中向好势头开展了哪些工作？ 刘结一： 过去一年，外部环境风高浪急，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，展现强大韧性和活力。 经济总 量迈上140万亿元新台阶 ，增速在全球主要经济体中继续保持前列。科技与产业深度融合，创新成果竞相涌 现，新质生产力拔节生长。这次"史上最长"春节假期，餐饮、游乐、商场人气旺盛，国内游客出游总消费超过 8034亿元，与去年同比增加1264亿元，彰显超大市场蓬勃生机；春运全社会跨区域人员流动量预计达95亿人 次， 相当于全球人均出行1次以上 ，照见流动中国澎湃活力。 我国经济从来都是在披荆斩棘中一路前行，在风雨洗礼中成长壮大，虽然还面临一些老问题、新挑战，但 基 础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大 ，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变。只 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency in economic work as China approaches the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 [1] Economic Policy - The article advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy, maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit, total debt, and overall expenditure while enhancing precision and effectiveness [1] - It calls for the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations [1] - The need to strengthen the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies is highlighted, emphasizing the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [1] Implementation Strategy - The article stresses the importance of aligning various policy measures to work in concert, ensuring that fiscal policies, financial policies, and reform initiatives are synergistic [1] - It outlines the necessity to focus on key areas and effectively implement the priorities set forth in the Central Economic Work Conference [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuous high growth of global debt driven by geopolitical conflicts, globalization restructuring, and structural factors such as aging populations and economic slowdown, leading governments to increase debt to stabilize growth and hedge public risks [4][9]. Group 1: Impact of High Global Debt - The high debt burden threatens fiscal sustainability, as accumulating long-term deficits and rigid interest payments squeeze public services and structural transformation space, putting some economies in a dilemma of either borrowing or tightening debt repayment [5][9]. - The risk of debt defaults affects the stability of the global financial system, as doubts about sovereign debt sustainability undermine the safety of government bonds in developed economies, amplifying market volatility [5][9]. - The continuous growth of debt constrains the effectiveness of global economic governance, as rising financing costs and diminishing marginal returns weaken the momentum of growth driven by debt, limiting the decision-making space for fiscal and monetary policies [5][9]. Group 2: Solutions to the Debt Dilemma - Addressing the debt dilemma requires a dual approach: improving the global economic governance system to reduce the frequency and intensity of external shocks, and enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness to cultivate endogenous economic growth [6][9]. - China adopts a strategy of "debt reduction through development" to ensure overall debt risk remains controllable, with government debt levels significantly lower than those of major economies and emerging markets [6][9]. - Continuous efforts are made to prevent and resolve local government debt risks, optimize fund flows, and improve the efficiency of debt fund usage, resulting in the formation of high-quality assets that effectively support economic balance and structural adjustment [6][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the future, China needs to deeply understand the global debt cycle and risk transmission mechanisms to balance debt control and economic growth, achieving dynamic equilibrium between stable growth and risk prevention [7][9]. - As a participant and builder of the global economic order, China's high-quality development can enhance its economic resilience and provide stability and security to global debt governance and economic rebalancing [7][9].

（来源：黑龙江日报） 转自：黑龙江日报 张 超 杨凯晴 坚持"两个毫不动摇"，促进多种所有制经济共同发展。持续深化国资国企改革，完善中国特色现代企业 制度，推动国有资本和国有企业做强做优做大。同时，大力优化民营经济发展环境，破除制约民营企业 公平参与市场竞争的壁垒，依法保护民营企业产权和企业家权益，从制度和法律上落实对各类所有制企 业一视同仁、平等对待的要求。 构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，保障竞争公平有序。深化要素市场化配置改革，消除阻碍劳动力、 资本、技术、数据等要素自由流动的体制障碍。强化反垄断和反不正当竞争，打破地方保护和行政性垄 断，清理和废除妨碍全国统一大市场建设的各项规定。政府当好市场秩序的"裁判员"，而不是直接下场 当"运动员"，通过建立明确的规则和严格的执法，确保所有经营主体在公平的赛场上竞技。 创新宏观经济治理 提升政策效能 现代市场经济运行离不开有效的政府宏观调控。有为政府必须具备高水平宏观经济治理能力，能够灵活 运用各种政策工具，平抑经济波动，引导长期发展。 完善宏观经济政策制定和执行机制，增强宏观政策取向一致性。党的二十届四中全会指出，"加强财 政、货币政策协同""增强宏观政策取向 ...

Core Insights - The report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates a shift in economic policy direction for 2026, moving from "strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment efforts" [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The adjustment aims to create policy space for the turning point in the Sino-US economic and financial cycles, shifting monetary policy from total stimulus to structural optimization to avoid widening interest rate differentials [1] - The balance between stabilizing growth and preventing risks is emphasized, with a focus on the impact of government debt expansion on long-term fiscal sustainability and the rising macro leverage ratio [1] - The approach combines short-term demand management with long-term structural reforms, aiming to smooth short-term economic fluctuations while addressing systemic issues [1] Group 2: Recommendations - The report suggests a dual approach of policy support and reform innovation to effectively release domestic demand potential [2] - It advocates for high-quality urban renewal as a means to stabilize and boost investment [2] - The report calls for innovative macroeconomic governance strategies to accelerate the repair of microeconomic entities' balance sheets [2]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of expectation management to boost social confidence, which is crucial for high-quality economic development [1][3] - Expectation management serves as a "compass" for individual consumption choices, where optimistic expectations about future income enhance consumption willingness [1][2] - A stable policy environment and clear market outlook empower individuals to plan for the future, reinforcing domestic demand as a stable anchor for economic growth [1][3] Group 2 - For enterprises, expectation management acts as a "navigation tool" for investment decisions, where clear and consistent policy signals encourage long-term investments and production expansion [2][3] - The introduction of the private economy promotion law has provided reassurance to private enterprises, allowing them to focus more on business operations and development [2] - Uncertainty in policy can lead to short-sighted business practices and chaotic competition, highlighting the need for a stable regulatory environment to foster positive expectations [2][3] Group 3 - For the nation, expectation management is a valuable tool for macroeconomic governance, especially in the face of old problems and new challenges in economic development [3] - Strengthening the mechanism for policy interpretation and responding to public concerns are essential for maintaining social confidence [3] - A combination of measures aimed at creating a market-oriented, law-based, and international business environment will help solidify positive expectations for high-quality development [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the necessity of fully tapping into economic potential, combining policy support with reform innovation, ensuring effective governance while allowing market flexibility, integrating investments in both physical and human capital, and honing internal capabilities to face external challenges [1][6][20]. Group 2 - Fully tapping into economic potential is crucial for solidifying the material foundation of Chinese-style modernization, leveraging the country's multiple advantages to foster new growth points and high-quality development [2][3]. - China, as the world's second-largest economy, benefits from a vast market that ensures internal circulation, a robust innovation ecosystem, and a strong industrial supply chain, positioning it as a key player in the global economic landscape [3][4]. - The Chinese economy has shown resilience against external shocks, maintaining its status as a major contributor to global economic growth, supported by a large consumer market and a complete industrial system [4][21]. Group 3 - The approach of combining policy support with reform innovation is essential for addressing the intertwined cyclical, structural, and institutional issues in the economy, ensuring effective macroeconomic governance [7][9]. - This dual approach has been proven effective in navigating complex domestic and international environments, enhancing macroeconomic stability while promoting structural reforms [8][10]. Group 4 - Achieving a balance between market freedom and government regulation is vital for enhancing economic governance and ensuring high-quality development [12][13]. - The focus should be on creating a fair competitive environment while allowing market forces to allocate resources efficiently, thus fostering a dynamic economic order [14][15]. Group 5 - Investments should be closely integrated between physical assets and human capital, with a shift towards enhancing human development as the economy matures [16][18]. - There is significant room for improvement in both physical and human capital investments, with current levels lagging behind developed countries, indicating potential growth areas [17][19]. Group 6 - The emphasis on internal capabilities is crucial for responding to external challenges, with a focus on maintaining strategic determination and leveraging the advantages of a large economy [20][22]. - Historical resilience against external shocks has been demonstrated, with strategies to shift towards domestic demand and innovation driving economic stability and growth [21][23].