Core Viewpoint - The overall economic operation in October remains stable, with solid progress in transformation and upgrading, while new growth drivers continue to strengthen. However, challenges persist due to external uncertainties and domestic structural adjustment pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - Despite external adverse impacts and a weak domestic market, the economy has maintained a steady and progressive development trend this year [1] - Significant improvement in social expectations is a notable characteristic of this year's economic performance, reflecting the effectiveness of expectation management [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - There has been a marked increase in the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation, with enhanced expectation management mechanisms [2] - The introduction of various economic and financial policies by multiple departments has strengthened policy synergy, aiming to avoid "synthetic fallacy" and "decomposition fallacy" [2] - The focus on consumer stimulation policies has been evident, with coordinated efforts from central and local governments, leading to enhanced consumption momentum [2] Group 3: Expectation Management - Strengthening policy coordination is crucial for maintaining the "strength" of expectation management, especially during economic cycle adjustments and structural transformations [3] - The need for targeted guidance in expectation management is emphasized, considering the increasing openness of the Chinese economy and the importance of engaging with foreign institutions [3] - Improving the accessibility of expectation management is vital, requiring effective communication between the government and various stakeholders [3]

科学的宏观调控、有效的政府治理是发挥社会主义市场经济体制优势的内在要求。健全以国家发展 规划为战略导向，以财政政策和货币政策为主要手段，就业、产业、投资、消费、环保、区域等政策紧 密配合，目标优化、分工合理、高效协同的宏观经济治理体系，是以习近平同志为核心的党中央对宏观 调控理论和实践作出的重大创新。习近平总书记强调，"健全宏观经济治理体系，发挥国家发展规划的 战略导向作用，加强财政政策和货币政策协调配合，着力扩大内需，增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用 和投资对优化供给结构的关键作用"。党的二十届四中全会提出"坚持和完善社会主义基本经济制度，更 好发挥经济体制改革牵引作用，完善宏观经济治理体系，确保高质量发展行稳致远"，强调"提升宏观经 济治理效能"。这一系列重要部署，是立足中国式现代化全局、应对新时代宏观经济治理挑战的战略安 排，为破解经济运行中的深层问题提供了遵循。 宏观调控制度体系是宏观经济治理体系的重要组成部分，其完善程度直接决定着宏观经济治理的实 际成效，直接影响高质量发展的成色。完善宏观调控制度体系能够有效优化保障宏观经济平稳运行的相 关机制，有助于实现资源配置效率最优化和效益最大化，还能灵活应对宏 ...

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of a sound macroeconomic governance system and effective government management as intrinsic requirements for leveraging the advantages of the socialist market economy system [1][2][3] Macroeconomic Governance System - The governance system should be closely coordinated with policies on employment, industry, investment, consumption, environmental protection, and regional development to ensure high-quality and sustainable economic growth [1][2] - The central government has made significant innovations in macroeconomic regulation theory and practice, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the foundational role of consumption in economic development [1][2] Government and Market Relationship - The relationship between an effective market and a proactive government is a core issue in China's economic reform, with the need for the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while the government addresses market failures [3][4] - The article outlines the evolution of the understanding of the government-market relationship, highlighting the shift from a focus on the market's basic role to its decisive role in resource allocation [4] Enhancing Governance Efficiency - Improving the macroeconomic governance system requires precise delineation of government and market responsibilities, modernization of government governance capabilities, and the establishment of a collaborative mechanism to reflect market demands [5][6] - The article stresses the need for a comprehensive macro-control system that can flexibly respond to internal and external economic risks, ensuring the stability of economic operations [7][8] Fiscal and Financial Policy Reforms - Fiscal and financial policies are crucial tools for connecting government macro-control with micro resource allocation, and reforms in these areas are essential for enhancing macroeconomic governance efficiency [9][10] - The article suggests focusing on improving fiscal resource management, optimizing the tax system, and clarifying the fiscal relationship between central and local governments to ensure sustainable fiscal operations [10][11] Consistency in Macroeconomic Policies - The need for consistent macroeconomic policy orientation is highlighted as a practical measure for promoting high-quality development, especially in the face of external uncertainties and domestic economic pressures [13][14] - The article advocates for a systematic approach to policy coordination, ensuring that economic policies align with actual development needs and are effectively communicated to stakeholders [15][16]

Core Points - The Vice Governor of the People's Bank of China, Tao Ling, outlined five key directions for deepening financial reform [1][2] - Emphasis on developing a scientific and robust monetary policy system alongside a comprehensive macro-prudential policy framework [1] - The importance of enhancing the adaptability of financial institutions, products, and services to meet diverse investment and financing needs [1] Group 1 - The five key directions for financial reform include: 1. Accelerating the improvement of the central bank system 2. Enhancing the adaptability of financial institutions, products, and services 3. Establishing a well-functioning financial market 4. Building a higher-level open financial system 5. Creating a sustainable financial ecosystem [1] Group 2 - The need to balance development and security while promoting trade and investment facilitation, expanding the openness of China's financial market, and advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi [2] - The goal of constructing the Shanghai International Financial Center and consolidating Hong Kong's status as an international financial center [2] - The call to regulate "involutionary" competition in the financial industry to maintain reasonable profit margins and to encourage a healthy economic-financial cycle [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices showed a narrow - range overnight oscillation, with domestic spot refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The weak ADP employment data in the US boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market was still cautious, and copper might be short - term optimistic but overall in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas financial market performance and domestic inventory [1]. - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed an oscillatingly stronger trend overnight. Alumina factory profits were continuously compressed, with sporadic production cuts in loss - making capacities. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, with a short - term high - level adjustment rhythm. Attention should be paid to the potential for the market to recover during the mid - month northern heating season production restrictions [1][2]. - Nickel prices declined overnight. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and overseas copper prices oscillated narrowly. The US ADP employment data in October showed a decrease of 45,000 in private - sector employment, the largest decline in two and a half years. This boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the central bank emphasized policy balance. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons, Comex inventory increased by 3,925 tons to 341,677 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 10,135 tons. Downstream demand was restricted by high - price concerns. LME was soliciting opinions on new permanent rules. Short - term copper might be optimistic, but overall it would likely oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended oscillatingly stronger. AO2601 closed at 2,826 yuan/ton with a 0.01% increase, AL2512 closed at 21,740 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and AD2512 closed at 21,135 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Alumina factory profits were compressed, with sporadic production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, and the short - term would continue the high - level adjustment rhythm. Aluminum alloy followed the adjustment, and attention should be paid to the long - AD space after the spread narrowed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.5% to $15,025 per ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.25% to 119,150 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan from the previous day. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 136,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2,663 tons to 337,749 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 29.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 574 tons to 23,769 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 2,583 tons to 38,582 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 11, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the Nanhai price was 21,490 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 547,225 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 62.7 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 3.2 million tons to 16.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 253,404 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 436 tons to 37,187 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 0.5%. The LmeS3 price was $2,505.5 per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price increased, and the inventory at SHFE increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 287,410 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540 per ton, down 2.1%. The spot price increased, and the SHFE inventory increased by 73 tons to 5,992 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 were presented, showing the historical trends of these premiums [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 were provided, demonstrating the historical trends of these spreads [16][19][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were shown, indicating the historical inventory trends [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were displayed, presenting the historical inventory trends [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel social inventories were presented, with time - span data from 2019 - 2025 for some and 2020 - 2025 for others, showing the historical social - inventory trends [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate were provided, with data from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of these smelting - related indicators [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction of the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and a top industrial - futures analyst in the futures and securities fields. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [51]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He provides timely market and policy interpretations and has written many in - depth reports [51]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides timely market and policy interpretations [52].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Third Quarter of 2025," summarizing the monetary policy execution and analyzing the current economic and financial situation, while clarifying future policy directions [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Execution - The report emphasizes balancing short-term and long-term goals, growth and risk prevention, internal and external equilibrium, and supporting the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system [1] - A moderately loose monetary policy has been consistently applied this year, with significant growth in financial totals; as of September, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The cost of social financing remains low, with new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year as of September [1] Group 2: Financial Indicators and Economic Analysis - The report highlights the importance of total financial indicators, suggesting that social financing scale and money supply are more comprehensive than bank loans; it notes that a natural decline in financial total growth is expected as the economy transitions to high-quality development [2] - An analysis of internal and external economic conditions indicates insufficient global economic growth momentum, differentiated inflation trends, and a cooling labor market, with ongoing impacts from tariff policies and high debt levels in major economies [2] Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The report outlines the intention to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring social financing conditions remain relatively relaxed while enhancing the monetary policy framework and its execution [3] - It aims to keep liquidity ample, aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, while also focusing on supporting consumption and small and medium-sized enterprises [3] - The report stresses the importance of preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations and maintaining the stability of the RMB at a reasonable equilibrium level, alongside exploring macro-prudential measures to ensure financial market stability [3]

Monetary Policy Overview - The focus of monetary policy is to support the real economy, with a higher likelihood of increasing structural monetary policy tools in the second half of 2025[1] - The report indicates a shift towards "doing a good job in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments" compared to previous emphasis on "enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance"[2] Changes in Policy Language - The overall tone remains moderately loose, with a change from "implementing in detail" to "implementing well" regarding monetary policy[2] - The assessment of the international economic situation has shifted from "weakening growth momentum" to "insufficient growth momentum" in the global economy[2] - The report emphasizes the need to "consolidate the foundation for domestic economic recovery" and "enhance confidence in victory"[2] Key Focus Areas - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a relatively loose social financing condition and optimizing the monetary policy framework[3] - It stresses the need to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate sector, indicating a focus on constructing a new development model[3] - The report includes four specialized sections, addressing the relationship between base currency and money, financial support for digital economy development, and maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships[3] Future Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose into 2026, with a focus on stabilizing growth and enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy tools[2] - There is a potential for the central bank to utilize open market operations to stabilize interest rate fluctuations around the New Year and Spring Festival holidays[2] - Risks include potential overseas inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in major economies[2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support economic recovery and maintain financial market stability [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to deepen financial reforms and enhance high-level opening-up, aiming to build a robust financial system and improve the monetary policy framework [1][2]. - The report emphasizes maintaining ample liquidity and ensuring that social financing and money supply growth align with economic growth and price level expectations [2][5]. - The PBOC will utilize various monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2][5]. Group 2: Price Level and Economic Indicators - The report indicates an improvement in price levels, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in the first three quarters, consistent with earlier periods [3]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, has been rising since the Spring Festival, reaching a 1% increase in September, with a year-on-year rise of 0.6% for the first three quarters [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has remained stable, with a narrowing decline in the third quarter compared to the second quarter [3]. Group 3: Financial Metrics and Trends - The report highlights a gradual shift away from focusing solely on quantitative targets, advocating for a more comprehensive view of financial metrics such as social financing scale and money supply [4][5]. - As of now, the total balance of RMB loans has reached 270 trillion yuan, while the social financing scale stands at 437 trillion yuan, indicating a natural decline in financial growth rates as the economy transitions to high-quality development [4][5]. - The growth of social financing and money supply is expected to align with nominal economic growth rates, reflecting changes in the financial supply-side structure [4].

央行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告。其中提到，下阶段，中国人民银行将坚持坚持稳中求 进工作总基调，完整、准确、全面贯彻新发展理念，坚定不移走中国特色金融发展之路，进一步深化金 融改革和高水平对外开放，加快建设金融强国，完善中央银行制度，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆 盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，畅通货币政策传导机制。平衡好短期与长期、稳增长与防风险、内部均衡 与外部均衡、支持实体经济与保持银行体系自身健康性的关系，强化宏观政策取向一致性，做好逆周期 和跨周期调节，提升宏观经济治理效能，持续稳增长、稳就业、稳预期。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a balanced approach to monetary policy, focusing on steady progress while adhering to the new development philosophy and advancing financial reform and openness [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank will maintain a stable and progressive work guideline, fully implementing the new development concept [1] - There is a commitment to deepen financial reform and enhance high-level openness in the financial sector [1] - The goal is to construct a robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework [1] Group 2: Economic Balance - The central bank aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, growth support and risk prevention, as well as internal and external equilibrium [1] - There is a focus on reinforcing the consistency of macro policy orientation [1] - The central bank will enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1] Group 3: Economic Stability - The objectives include sustaining growth, stabilizing employment, and maintaining expectations [1]