报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年国庆假期，消费呈现"量增价减"特征，旅游出行平稳回暖，出境游成为旅游消费的增长 点，但机酒价格同比回落，市内出行、票房、地产表现也偏弱。在价格并未完全企稳的情况下， 居民消费回暖的持续性及企业利润的修复力度有待观察。我们预计，随着四季度基本面对债市 的定价权逐步提升，债市在四季度大概率存在修复机会。大类资产方面，主要发达国家及港股 股指走强，医疗保健、信息技术板块涨幅靠前，贵金属、有色大幅上涨，美债利率一度上行随 后修复，而德/法/日债收益率上行，美元走强、日元贬值，离岸人民币兑美元小幅贬值。 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 国庆假期重点回顾与债市展望 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 分析师及联系人 赵增辉 马玮健 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 cjzqdt11111 2025-10-09 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 国庆假期重点回顾与债市展望 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 08 日 国庆假期要闻汇总及思考 ——债市专题研究 核心观点 国庆期间，全球资产有两大交易主线：①美国政府停摆并导致部分重要经济数据停止 发布，但对于美联储降息预期影响较小，对于宽财政持续性担忧升温；②日本自民党 高市早苗胜选女总裁，其宽松的政策主张带动宽财政和宽货币预期，受到美日关键事 件的共振，全球风险偏好有望受到流动性驱动而抬升。总体来看，日本股指和黄金分 别在高市早苗交易和避险诉求下领涨，美日等主要国家长债利率在宽财政以及债务可 持续担忧下上行。 ❑ 大类资产表现 日股＞商品>除日股外其他股指＞债市。国庆期间（10 月 1 日至 10 月 6 日），权 益资产价格普遍上涨，日本股指表现一枝独秀；商品表现分化，黄金、白银和铜 价大幅上涨，10 月 7 日盘中，COMEX 黄金价格突破 4000 美元/盎司关口；债券 利率普遍震荡上行，表现偏弱势。 ❑ 海外要闻汇总 ①美国政府停摆，"大非农"就业数据推迟公布； ②美国 9 月新增 ADP 就业为负，但下降趋势变缓； ③美国 9 月 ISM 制造业 PMI ...

But Takaichi's reputation as a growth-focused politician who believes in looser monetary policy, more fiscal stimulus, and broader structural reforms has raised concerns over the nation's debt sustainability. Fixed-income investors are closely watching apan, where some longer-dated bond yields are trading at their highest levels on record after a historic weekend of political developments. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party named Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, paving the way for her to become the co ...

Group 1: US Economic Situation - The US is experiencing a significant economic crisis despite being the world's largest economy, leading to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates for the first time this year [2][4] - The current economic environment in the US is characterized by "stagflation," with rising inflation and a cooling economy, raising doubts about the rationale for continued rate cuts [5] - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is increasing, with interest rate decisions becoming more influenced by political considerations rather than economic fundamentals [5][8] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a high probability of two more rate cuts in November and December, totaling 75 basis points, but the path remains uncertain [8] - There are concerns about the erosion of the Federal Reserve's "policy independence" due to political pressures, particularly with the upcoming departure of Powell and the ongoing influence of Trump [8] Group 3: US-China Relations - The ongoing US-China competition is marked by threats of increased tariffs and sanctions, with both sides engaging in strategic maneuvers [10] - China's strategy focuses on maintaining communication to avoid misjudgments while not being swayed by the fluctuating policies of the Trump administration [10] Group 4: European Debt Crisis - The UK is facing a severe bond sell-off, with long-term bond yields reaching 5.7%, indicating a crisis of confidence in the sustainability of European debt [12][14] - The European Union is struggling with a fiscal crisis, where the choice between cutting public welfare or increasing debt leads to a political deadlock [14][16] - The European Central Bank's rate cuts are unlikely to resolve the fundamental issues, potentially exacerbating market concerns and leading to higher bond yields [18] Group 5: Comparative Analysis of US and European Debt - The credit foundations of US and European debt are fundamentally different, with US debt supported by its reserve currency status and military strength, while European debt lacks a unified fiscal structure [18] - The outflow of "low-risk funds" from European debt is currently flowing back into US debt as a safe haven, indicating a divergence in market behavior [18] Group 6: Future Outlook - The upcoming months will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory and the potential spread of European debt risks [20] - A rational public response and personal asset planning are essential in navigating the current macroeconomic landscape [20]

墨西哥债市全览： 拉美地区成熟且结构完善的债券市场 本报告导读： 墨西哥债券市场是拉美地区最为成熟的市场之一，央行实施独立货币政策，汇率自 由浮动，外汇管制程度较低。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.24 | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 久期因子仍不占优 2025.09.23 聚焦回调后中短端票息价值 2025.09.16 从五浪到 M 顶调整:技术分析视角下的本轮回调 2025.09.10 第二批科创债 ETF 如何筛选—三个维度与一个变 量 2025.09.10 攻守兼备：国泰海通十大转债 2025.09.09 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

Core Viewpoint - Local government debt is a crucial tool for macroeconomic stability in China, with significant growth and expansion in its scope over the past five years, increasing from approximately 25 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to nearly 50 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [3][4] Group 1: Local Government Debt Growth - The scale of local government debt has doubled, with annual new debt limits reaching record highs, effectively bridging local fiscal gaps [3] - The areas of investment for special bonds have expanded from seven key sectors in 2020 to a comprehensive negative list management approach, providing flexible support for local development [3] Group 2: Debt Risk Management - The government is increasing support for resolving local government debt risks, with new policies being the most significant measures in recent years [4] - A resolution was passed to approve the increase of local government debt limits to replace hidden debts, marking the official start of debt resolution efforts [4] Group 3: Economic Transition and Debt Management - The transition from debt-driven investment to technology and consumption-driven growth is ongoing, with recommendations to optimize debt resolution methods and increase debt limits [4][6] - The relationship between debt growth and economic growth must be dynamically managed to ensure sustainable development [6] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Local Debt - Local debt plays a vital role in making fiscal policy more proactive, especially in the current economic climate [5] - There is a need for a balanced approach to ensure that debt scales align with economic growth and fiscal capacity, avoiding disorderly expansion [7] Group 5: Performance Evaluation and Efficiency - A dual-dimensional performance evaluation system should be established to assess both economic and social benefits of debt-funded projects [8] - Ensuring the effective and efficient use of debt funds is crucial for improving investment returns [8] Group 6: Central Government's Role - The central government has room to increase leverage to alleviate local government debt pressure and enhance debt sustainability [9] - Special bonds should be managed through a negative list approach, with exploration of positive encouragement lists to broaden investment areas [9] Group 7: Future Fiscal Strategy - The fiscal policy for the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" should be more proactive, with suggestions to increase the deficit rate to around 5% and a broad deficit scale of 16 trillion yuan [11] - Local debt should align with national strategic goals to support high-quality economic development, focusing on key projects and emerging industries [12]

布雷顿森林机构将加纳总债务的大幅下降归因于最近的债务重组计划，使得该国走上了债务可持续 性的道路，这一发展将有助于为经济复苏和经济急需的投资创造更多空间。 （原标题：加纳债务总额将在年底降至GDP的60%） 据加纳"乐在线"9月11日报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，到2025年底，加纳的总债务额将 降至GDP的60％。 关于维持这种下降趋势，加纳需要进行包括增加国内收入、加强公共财政管理、并全面维持财政纪 律的一系列改革。 根据加纳央行数据，截至2025年6月，加纳的总债务存量已减少至6130亿加纳塞地，占GDP的 43.8%。 ...

The US government posted a $345 billion deficit in August, with receipts of $344 billion overshadowed by $689 billion in spending. The largest outlays were Medicare at $141 billion and Social Security at $134 billion, but what stands out is net interest at $93 billion, now the third-largest expense. This highlights the growing pressure that rising borrowing costs are placing on federal finances.The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, but history suggests it wont be tha ...

Core Viewpoint - The relationship between population aging and debt has become a focal point at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, highlighting that global aging increases fiscal burdens and expands demand for debt assets, creating a "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium. However, this equilibrium is fragile and not solely determined by demographic factors, as it also depends on interest rate sensitivity to debt, international capital flows, and political stability [2][4][7]. Group 1: Aging Population and Debt Dynamics - The aging population leads to significant increases in fiscal spending, including rising pension payments and healthcare costs, which contribute to persistent fiscal deficits and an upward trend in government debt [4][5]. - Aging not only raises government fiscal burdens but also expands societal demand for safe, long-term investment tools, such as government bonds, allowing governments to issue large amounts of debt at very low interest rates [5][6]. - The political landscape shifts towards older voters, making it more challenging to implement tax increases or spending cuts, resulting in a tendency for governments to opt for "more borrowing" rather than "spending less" [5][6]. Group 2: Fragility of the Current Equilibrium - Despite the apparent sustainability of the "high debt - low interest rate" equilibrium, its fragility is underscored by factors such as interest rate sensitivity to debt, global capital market demand, and political stability [7][8]. - The estimated Debt Sensitivity to Interest Rate (DSIR) is around 0.5 basis points, suggesting that a significant increase in debt-to-GDP ratios could lead to a more pronounced rise in interest rates, potentially worsening fiscal outlooks [7][8]. - Global demand for U.S. Treasury bonds may not remain constant, as geopolitical tensions and the emergence of alternative reserve currencies could weaken reliance on U.S. debt, exposing vulnerabilities in debt sustainability [8]. Group 3: Long-term Solutions - The long-term solution lies in structural fiscal reforms and productivity enhancements, as the current equilibrium, while providing short-term stability, poses long-term risks [12][14]. - Initiating structural fiscal adjustments can help stabilize market confidence and prevent debt expectations from spiraling out of control, while investments in technology, education, and labor market reforms are essential for boosting productivity [14]. - Future monetary policy may need to navigate complex trade-offs among inflation, employment, and fiscal constraints, with central banks facing greater discretion and associated credibility risks [14].

Group 1 - Long-term bond yields in developed economies have surged due to government debt, potential inflation, and political instability, raising concerns among investors about the risks associated with holding these bonds [1] - The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond approached 5% on September 3, with the spread between the 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields widening to the highest level since December 2021, indicating investor worries about the sustainability of US government debt and rising inflation [1] - Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a historic high of 3.28% on September 3, while the UK's 30-year bond yield rose to 5.752%, the highest level since 1998, and Germany's 30-year bond yield climbed to 3.37%, nearing a 14-year high [1] Group 2 - The fiscal outlook in major Eurozone economies is causing investor concern, particularly following Germany's announcement of significant investments in infrastructure and defense, which may lead to higher long-term rates in the Eurozone [2] - France's long-term borrowing costs surged to their highest level since 2011 on September 2, driven by concerns over political instability affecting fiscal consolidation efforts, which could increase risk premiums and further escalate national debt [2] - Deutsche Bank's CEO noted that capital markets have recognized the lack of necessary economic reforms to address government debt, warning that ongoing political instability and delayed reforms could perpetuate the current trend [2]