新华社约翰内斯堡11月23日电 二十国集团南非峰会：领导人宣言（摘译） 序言 我们，2025年11月22日至23日相聚于南非约翰内斯堡的二十国集团领导人，出席南非主席国在非洲 大陆举行的首次历史性峰会，应对主要全球挑战，探讨促进以团结、平等、可持续为关键支撑的包容性 增长。 我们谴责一切形式和表现的恐怖主义。 我们一致认为，在《联合国宪章》宗旨和原则的全面指引下，我们将致力于在苏丹、刚果（金）、 巴勒斯坦被占领土、乌克兰实现公正、全面和持久的和平，并结束全球其他冲突与战争。只有在和平之 下，我们才能实现可持续发展和繁荣。 加强灾害韧性和应对 我们强调采取综合、包容、以人为本、全面的减灾方法至关重要。我们注意到需要加强灾害韧性和 灾害应对能力，包括采取协调行动减少地震、极端高温、洪涝、干旱、野火及荒漠化等灾害的频率和负 面影响，确保在必要时做好相互援助的准备。我们欢迎采用基于自然的解决方案和基于生态系统的方 法，在提供生态系统服务的同时，既最大限度降低风险，又增强应对特定灾害的韧性。 采取行动确保低收入国家债务可持续性 我们重申致力于以有效、全面和系统的方式支持中、低收入国家应对债务脆弱性问题。我们核准 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of approximately $500 million in China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds reflects a long-term strategic adjustment rather than a temporary decision, indicating a shift in China's approach to U.S. debt amid rising U.S. debt levels and interest payments [1][18]. Group 1: China's Actions - In September, China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings from about $7,010 billion to $7,005 billion, continuing a trend of gradual reduction that has seen a total decrease of nearly $3,000 billion since 2022 [1][3]. - This reduction is part of a broader strategy to enhance financial security and reassess the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][18]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with projections indicating it could reach $40 trillion soon, highlighting a significant increase in debt levels over the past decade [4][19]. - The net interest payments for the federal government are projected to approach $1 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, nearly doubling from four years ago, which raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [5][19]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The rapid increase in interest payments and the growing debt burden have led to heightened investor caution regarding U.S. Treasury securities, as the perception shifts from viewing them as "risk-free" to recognizing the associated political and fiscal uncertainties [4][5]. - The combination of external tariffs and internal tax cuts in U.S. policy has made foreign investors, particularly long-term holders like China, more wary of continuing to purchase U.S. debt [6][19]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - The ongoing political tensions in the U.S., particularly the criticism directed at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by former President Trump, reflect a broader conflict between short-term political goals and long-term economic stability [10][12]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived to be under threat as political pressures mount, which could impact future monetary policy decisions and investor confidence in U.S. financial governance [15][19]. Group 5: Global Implications - The shift in China's strategy to reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings is indicative of a potential turning point in the global financial landscape, as countries begin to explore alternatives to reliance on the U.S. dollar and its associated risks [18][19]. - This environment necessitates a careful management of existing U.S. debt assets and a diversification of reserves to mitigate risks, emphasizing the importance of maintaining financial stability in a changing geopolitical context [18].

随着我国经济的持续发展，政府债务作为宏观经济运行中的关键变量，其规模、结构、功能及可持续性日益受到各界关注。近年 来，面对复杂的内外部经济环境，政府债务在调节经济运行、保障民生福祉、支持重点领域发展等方面发挥重要作用的同时，也面 临着种类和期限、持有者结构、可持续性等方面的一系列新情况与新挑战。 政府债券的种类和期限结构安排 当前，政府债券的种类和期限结构安排亟待深入探讨。从种类来看，主要分为赤字债务和自偿性债务。从期限来看，我国国债以中 期为主，短期相对偏少。从功能来看，国债是金融市场流动性的来源，也是非金融部门财富的重要组成部分。美国在这方面起步较 早，其美元最初由黄金背书，之后依托美国国债市场，再经过石油赋能，如今涉足稳定币领域。相比之下，在我国国债市场，国债 作为流动性来源的功能发挥还不够充分，但近年来正在加速深化改革与发展。 我国国债在非金融部门尤其是居民部门财富构成中的作用还有待挖掘。长期以来，我国国债面向个人投资者发行的规模相对较小。 通过对比中国居民与美国居民收入构成可以发现，我国居民的总收入低于美国居民，但工资性收入水平与美国相近，二者的差距主 要体现在财产性收入和转移支付方面。在美国居民的 ...

智通财经APP获悉，根据华尔街分析师们对于英国股债市场的最新看法，英国最新一轮政治闹剧对该国资产走势相 当不利，随着一份充满争议的预算案临近，英国金融市场不确定性正在累积，市场波动正在加剧——暴跌与暴涨可 能随时切换。 英国资产承压 市场对有传言称英国卫生大臣韦斯·斯特里廷(Wes Streeting)正计划挑战首相基尔·斯塔默(Keir Starmer)的领导地位最 初反应不大，但华尔街策略师们警告称，从长期来看，这类传闻并无助益，甚至有可能重创英国资产。斯特里廷随 后迅速否认了相关指控，称其"并不属实"。 "政治不确定性对英镑和英国国债(也被称作金边债)都不是好事。"来自荷兰合作银行的外汇策略主管Jane Foley表 示。这些传言使得英镑周三在G-10外汇(十国集团货币)表现排行榜中接近垫底位置，"在一份很可能相当黯淡的英国 预算案出台之前，更加恶化了整体情绪，"她补充表示。 截至发稿，英镑下跌0.4%，报1英镑兑1.3105美元。10年期英国国债收益率上升3个基点，收复了前一日部分跌幅。 这一事件发生在政府计划于11月26日公布预算案的数周之前。外界普遍预测英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯(Rachel R ...

Core Insights - The lessons learned from the Greek debt crisis highlight the vulnerabilities in the international financial system and the importance of addressing weak links [1][3] - The unsustainable nature of debt is influenced by interest rates, nominal growth rates, and the characteristics of debt holders [3][4] - The complexity of decision-making during a crisis requires a comprehensive approach that integrates fiscal and structural issues [4][5] Summary by Categories Lessons from the Greek Debt Crisis - The first lesson emphasizes that the stability of the international system relies on its weakest links, as demonstrated by Greece's significant impact on the Eurozone despite its small population [3] - The second lesson points out that previously overlooked issues must eventually be addressed, as evidenced by Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio soaring to 230% during the global financial crisis due to years of poor fiscal management [3] - The third lesson focuses on debt sustainability, which is contingent on the relationship between interest rates and nominal growth rates, as well as the nature of debt holders and debt maturity [3] Additional Insights - An additional lesson stresses the need for multifaceted and complex decision-making in the face of large-scale crises, considering fiscal paths and reform sequences [4] - Despite improvements in Greece's performance since the crisis, there remain unresolved issues such as the need for a banking union and common safe assets, indicating ongoing vulnerabilities [5]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been overly optimistic about the debt stability in emerging markets and developing economies, particularly in the Latin America and Caribbean (ALC) region, where rising debt burdens, climate vulnerabilities, and stagnant development goals are creating a potential crisis [1][3]. Debt Situation - The total public external debt in the ALC region has surpassed $1 trillion, with an average debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 70% [3]. - In Small Island Developing States (SIDS) within the Caribbean, this ratio exceeds 100%, indicating severe financial strain [3]. - Rising global interest rates and depreciating local currencies are significantly increasing the cost of debt repayment [3]. Impact on Public Spending - Between 2021 and 2023, debt repayment expenditures in eight ALC countries have exceeded their public health spending [4]. - The region is highly susceptible to climate change, with natural disasters since 2000 causing over $110 billion in economic losses [4][5]. Climate Change and Debt Cycle - A vicious cycle is forming where disasters increase debt, leading to reduced investment in disaster resilience, which in turn exacerbates future losses [6][7]. - Caribbean nations contribute less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions but are among the most affected by climate change [8]. Innovative Solutions - Some countries, like Belize, have initiated innovative debt-for-nature swaps, reducing debt by 12% of GDP while funding marine conservation [11]. - Other nations, such as Grenada and Barbados, have issued bonds with "disaster clauses" allowing for debt repayment suspension in the event of severe natural disasters [12]. Need for Systemic Reform - A new framework is needed that includes comprehensive debt restructuring involving all creditors, alongside preferential financing for green infrastructure and climate adaptation projects [13][14]. - Countries with liquidity issues should focus on reducing debt costs and expanding fiscal space through multilateral development bank financing and climate-sensitive financial instruments [15][17]. Urgency for Action - Without systemic reforms, climate financing and green investments will not provide substantial help to heavily indebted economies [18]. - The upcoming international meetings present opportunities to address the debt crisis and climate change, emphasizing the need for political and financial support from Europe [17][18]. Consequences of Inaction - Failure to act could lead to a "lost decade" for many ALC countries, resulting in deteriorating fiscal conditions and regression in development achievements [19][20]. - The real impact of debt is felt in everyday life, affecting essential services and infrastructure in vulnerable regions [19][20]. Call to Action - Urgent action is required from global leaders to prevent further entrenchment of these countries in debt and climate crises [22].

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports a resilient start to the global economy in the first half of the year, but signs of moderate slowdown are emerging as supporting factors fade [1][2] - The report highlights significant uncertainty in the development prospects of industries like artificial intelligence, which may struggle to drive global economic growth [1] Economic Performance - Global economic activities were strong in the first half of the year, with inflation levels in the US and Asian economies well-controlled [1] - The resilience observed is attributed to short-term factors such as preemptive imports and inventory management in response to US tariff policies, rather than a robust economic foundation [1] - Global economic growth is projected to decline from 3.6% at the end of 2024 to 2.6% at the end of this year, with forecasts of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 [1][2] Inflation and Trade - Inflation rates are expected to decrease, with global inflation projected at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, while US inflation is anticipated to remain above target [2] - Global trade volume is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.9% in 2025, significantly lower than the 3.5% growth rate in 2024, with ongoing trade fragmentation limiting trade revenues [2] Risks and Challenges - The report identifies persistent downward risks to the global economy, including policy uncertainty, rising protectionism, and restrictive immigration policies impacting labor supply [2][5] - The potential volatility in the artificial intelligence sector poses risks to economic growth and could lead to significant declines in tech stock prices, affecting market sentiment [5] - The report emphasizes the need for clear and transparent trade policies to reduce uncertainty and support investment, while modernizing trade rules to adapt to the digital age [5][6] Policy Recommendations - The IMF suggests rebuilding fiscal buffers and ensuring debt sustainability as priority actions, advocating for balanced fiscal consolidation plans [6] - Monetary policy should aim to balance price stability and growth risks, with structural reforms needed to enhance resilience and growth prospects [6] - For low-income countries, mobilizing domestic resources is crucial as external aid diminishes, and scenario planning can help ensure timely and effective responses to economic challenges [6]

Group 1: Malaysia Economic Outlook - Malaysia's economy recorded a surprising 5.2% growth in Q3, but growth momentum is expected to weaken in the coming quarters due to multiple pressures, including falling commodity prices and weak global demand [1] - The Malaysian central bank is anticipated to have at least one more rate cut available to support the economy, given the slowing growth outlook and expected moderate inflation [1] Group 2: Singapore Export Performance - Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) showed signs of resilience despite a year-on-year contraction in Q3, with a rebound observed in September [2] - The export outlook remains cautious due to ongoing risks from U.S. tariffs, although the current impact has been somewhat controlled [2] Group 3: Developed Markets Debt Challenges - Fitch Ratings highlighted that sovereign debt levels in developed markets have surpassed $71 trillion, with refinancing costs rising, exacerbating sustainability challenges [2] - The U.S. accounts for half of the total debt in developed markets and has contributed over 60% of the total increase since 2007 [2] Group 4: U.S. Job Market Trends - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. are expected to decrease from 235,000 to 217,000, indicating a short-term decline in applications [4] - Despite this decline, the overall job market remains weak, with many job seekers still unemployed, reflecting a decrease in employment momentum [4] Group 5: Eurozone Economic Recovery - The Eurozone's economic recovery is expected to be slow, supported by the lagging effects of monetary policy easing and gradual fiscal policy implementation [4][5] - Key factors to monitor include the EU's ability to implement structural reforms and the sustainability of consumer spending, which is currently influenced by high savings rates [5]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that global public debt will exceed 100% of global GDP by 2029, potentially reaching 123% in extreme scenarios, marking the highest level since 1948 [1][5]. Group 1: Debt Projections - By 2029, global public debt is expected to surpass 100% of global GDP, with a possible extreme scenario reaching 123% [1][5]. - This increase in debt levels is a significant concern, as it indicates a trend of rising fiscal vulnerability across nations [11]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The IMF emphasizes the need for countries to prioritize fiscal policies to ensure debt sustainability and build financial buffers against severe shocks, including potential financial crises [5][11]. - Countries are encouraged to optimize spending structures and enhance efficiency to strengthen fiscal resilience [3][7]. Group 3: Global Economic Disparities - There is a notable divergence in debt situations between developed economies and low-income countries, necessitating tailored approaches to achieve sustainable growth [7]. - The IMF calls for enhanced trade cooperation among nations to alleviate the compounded effects of debt and fiscal pressures [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank advises African countries against issuing Eurobonds for refinancing maturing debts and commercial loans, suggesting instead to invest in infrastructure projects [1] Group 1: Debt Sustainability - Sub-Saharan African countries are facing significant refinancing pressures due to maturing Eurobonds, which poses a major challenge to debt sustainability [1] - Countries like Benin, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, and South Africa issued over $12 billion in new Eurobonds in 2024, with some strategically used for refinancing [1] Group 2: Financial Risks - Kenya raised $4.5 billion in just two years through new Eurobond issuances to repurchase maturing debt [1] - The World Bank warns that obtaining new loans at relatively high costs may increase default risks and hinder economic stability in Africa due to rising global risks and tightening financial conditions [1]