作为美国金融界的资深"技术型劳模"，做过美联储掌门，又干过财政部部长的耶伦，我们中国网民都习惯称她"耶妈"，不仅是 因为其长相比较和蔼可亲，主要是因为其与伯南克通过"直升机撒钱"式的QE宽松帮助美国渡过了的次贷危机！而这样的实战 派专业学者，对美国经济应是什么样子，美联储和财政部应怎么配合，美元的地位应如何维护等问题，实在是再清楚不过了！ 然而时隔1个多月，耶伦就再度示警，称美国"财政主导"风险日益加剧，在美联储失去独立性的情况下，非理性的低利率很可 能会引发资本外逃、货币承压、长期利率飙升，最终导致美国沦为高负债下，失去美元定价能力的"香蕉共和国"。 由于我前面的文章已经解释过什么是香蕉共和国，因此我在此就不在多加赘述！ 我这里着重解释下什么是财政主导！其本质就是财政政策突破原有边界，主导宏观经济调控方向，使货币政策沦为财政目标的 服务工具，其对西方经济体而言是市场被计划主导的危险信号，不过对于东方经济模型而言，则没有那么多问题！ 我们接下去就看看财政主导的经济对美国有什么影响！ 这个特征是财政主导最典型的特征，在正常的宏观调控框架中，央行通常拥有货币政策独立性，核心目标是维持物价稳定、保 障充分就业。 但 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is expected to achieve its first basic fiscal surplus since 1998 in the fiscal year 2026, as the government approved a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen, balancing strong economic growth with fiscal discipline [1] Group 1: Fiscal Surplus and Budget - The initial budget for the national government is projected to achieve a basic fiscal surplus of 1.34 trillion yen [1] - Achieving a fiscal surplus has been a goal for the Japanese government for over two decades, with the initial target set for the fiscal year 2011 [4] - The upcoming release of complete data, including local government figures, is expected to confirm this milestone [4] Group 2: Debt Management and Market Response - The issuance of super-long-term bonds will be reduced to 17.4 trillion yen, a decrease of nearly one-fifth from the previous year, marking the lowest level in 17 years [5] - The total issuance of government bonds for the new fiscal year is set at 180.7 trillion yen, a nearly 5% decrease from the current fiscal year [5] - The debt dependency ratio has dropped to 24.2%, the lowest level since 1998, as new bond issuance is controlled below 30 trillion yen for the first time [6] Group 3: Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - Tax revenue is expected to grow by 7.6% to a record 83.7 trillion yen, providing a crucial funding source for new expenditures [7] - Debt repayment costs are projected to rise by 10.8% to 31.3 trillion yen, reflecting the pressures of exiting ultra-loose monetary policy [7] - The government is increasingly focusing on reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio rather than solely on achieving a basic fiscal surplus [4]

受 全球金融环境宽松、美元走软以及主要央行采取更宽松政策立场 推动。全球债务持续高增长引发关注。 2025年全球经济发展呈现出 鲜明的"分化与韧性并存"特征，主要国家和地区在面对地缘政治冲 突、债务高企、AI技术革命等多重挑战时，展现出不同的发展策略 与主旋律。 在此背景下，2026年全球经济将面临更加复杂的债务扩 张 挑 战 ， 各 国 将 采 取 差 异 化 应 对 策 略 ， 这 不 仅 会 影 响 全 球 经 济 格 局，也将重塑各国的政策选择与发展路径。 为此《清华金融评论》 编辑部特地展开征稿活动 。 《清华金融评论》 2026 年第2 期专题 全球债务持续高增长 受全球金融环境宽松、美元走软以及主要央行采取更宽松政策立场推动。全球债务持续高增长引发关注。 当债 务增长的速度远超经济产出的速度，风险便开始积聚。高额债务最直接的后果是巨额的利息支出。当财政收入 的大部分被用于偿还利息时，政府用于教育、医疗、基建等关键领域的投入就会被挤压，形成"借新债还旧 债"的恶性循环，最终侵蚀国家长期发展的根基。 4000～6000字（含图表） 征稿方向 1 债务扩张的多重影响与应对措施 2 全球债务对比：以美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is generally optimistic about gold prices in the coming year, with target ranges between $4,800 and $5,000 [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - HSBC's recent commodity outlook report indicates that the upward momentum for gold is expected to continue until 2026, driven by strong central bank purchases, ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S., and expectations of further monetary easing, with a target price of $5,000 [1] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. fiscal deficit is a significant factor driving gold demand, as investors increasingly view gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks and potential dollar weakness [1] Group 2: Central Bank Demand - HSBC anticipates that central bank gold purchasing will remain high, particularly due to sustained buying from emerging market central banks, which constitutes a key support for gold prices [1] - However, HSBC warns that if the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are fewer than market expectations, the upward trajectory of gold may face resistance [1]

2025.12.18 本文字数：1953，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 潘寅茹 题图 |新华社 在外界屏息静待日本央行年前最后一次议息会议前，高市早苗政府又一次发出了不同声音。 17日，日本央行前副行长、高市早苗政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄（Masazumi Wakatabe）警告称，日 本央行应避免过早加息和过度收紧货币政策。 日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议（来源：新华社资料图） 分歧 若田部昌澄表示，日本当务之急是通过财政政策和增长战略提高中性利率。他主张，只有在中性利率因 政策驱动而上升后，日本央行加息才顺理成章。 分析认为，若田部昌澄上述表态的核心观点在于重新定义加息的先决条件。背后的逻辑则是"高市经济 学"政策框架的体现。他还表示，高市的经济主张虽然带有"安倍经济学"的成分，但重心更加着眼于强 化经济的供应面。 外界认为，这一表态不仅凸显了高市早苗政府更加强化所谓的"高市经济学"，同时又一次使得政府与央 行就加息问题的矛盾浮出水面。 18~19日，日本央行将召开年内最后一场货币政策会议。今年年初，日本央行将利率上调至 0.5%，创下 2007年2月以来最大的加息幅度。此后，日本央行一直 ...

人民财讯12月17日电，2026年二十国集团(G20)主席国美国在华盛顿举行其接任主席国后的首次G20财 政和央行副手会议。会议围绕2026年G20财金渠道工作安排以及G20财金渠道重点议题和工作计划进行 了讨论。财政部副部长廖岷出席会议并发言。 廖岷表示，当前全球经济增长动能不足，各方应更好发挥G20财金渠道作用，加强宏观政策协调，共同 营造开放、包容、非歧视的国际经济合作环境。中方坚定支持多边主义，期待与各方共同努力推进2026 年G20财金渠道合作进程，为促进全球经济强劲、可持续、平衡、包容性增长贡献力量。中方呼吁遵循 市场化原则，多渠道动员资源帮助更多债务国改善债务可持续性并提高可持续发展能力。 ...

根据世界银行最新发布《2025年12月柬埔寨经济展望》报告，预计柬埔寨2025年经济增长率将放缓至 4.8%，低于2024年的6%。 报告指出，房地产行业疲软、柬泰边境争端及美国关税上调等多重内外冲击，对该国经济活动造成显著 压力。具体来看，房地产市场低迷持续抑制国内需求与建筑行业活力；柬泰边境紧张局势不仅扰乱了双 边贸易往来，还对劳动力市场与旅游业造成连锁冲击；此外，美国自2025年8月1日起对柬埔寨所有进口 商品加征19%关税，进一步加剧了外部环境的不确定性。 世界银行驻柬埔寨国家经理Tania Mayer表示，柬埔寨正处于应对内外双重冲击的关键挑战期，强有力 的缓冲机制与针对性改革将是抵御经济压力的核心支撑。她强调，保障返乡人员等弱势家庭的基本生活 需求仍需重点关注，同时需通过改善营商环境、扶持非正规企业发展、简化正规化流程等举措，释放经 济增长潜力，营造公平竞争市场环境，进而创造更高质量的就业机会。报告显示，尽管柬埔寨经济增长 面临压力，但仍然展现出一定韧性，该国国际储备状况保持健康，能够支付约7.5个月的进口需求，公 共债务水平较低，约占国内生产总值（GDP）的26%，债务可持续性良好，2025年平 ...

新华社约翰内斯堡11月23日电 二十国集团南非峰会：领导人宣言（摘译） 序言 我们，2025年11月22日至23日相聚于南非约翰内斯堡的二十国集团领导人，出席南非主席国在非洲 大陆举行的首次历史性峰会，应对主要全球挑战，探讨促进以团结、平等、可持续为关键支撑的包容性 增长。 我们谴责一切形式和表现的恐怖主义。 我们一致认为，在《联合国宪章》宗旨和原则的全面指引下，我们将致力于在苏丹、刚果（金）、 巴勒斯坦被占领土、乌克兰实现公正、全面和持久的和平，并结束全球其他冲突与战争。只有在和平之 下，我们才能实现可持续发展和繁荣。 加强灾害韧性和应对 我们强调采取综合、包容、以人为本、全面的减灾方法至关重要。我们注意到需要加强灾害韧性和 灾害应对能力，包括采取协调行动减少地震、极端高温、洪涝、干旱、野火及荒漠化等灾害的频率和负 面影响，确保在必要时做好相互援助的准备。我们欢迎采用基于自然的解决方案和基于生态系统的方 法，在提供生态系统服务的同时，既最大限度降低风险，又增强应对特定灾害的韧性。 采取行动确保低收入国家债务可持续性 我们重申致力于以有效、全面和系统的方式支持中、低收入国家应对债务脆弱性问题。我们核准 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of approximately $500 million in China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds reflects a long-term strategic adjustment rather than a temporary decision, indicating a shift in China's approach to U.S. debt amid rising U.S. debt levels and interest payments [1][18]. Group 1: China's Actions - In September, China reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings from about $7,010 billion to $7,005 billion, continuing a trend of gradual reduction that has seen a total decrease of nearly $3,000 billion since 2022 [1][3]. - This reduction is part of a broader strategy to enhance financial security and reassess the credibility of the U.S. dollar [1][18]. Group 2: U.S. Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with projections indicating it could reach $40 trillion soon, highlighting a significant increase in debt levels over the past decade [4][19]. - The net interest payments for the federal government are projected to approach $1 trillion in the 2025 fiscal year, nearly doubling from four years ago, which raises concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [5][19]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The rapid increase in interest payments and the growing debt burden have led to heightened investor caution regarding U.S. Treasury securities, as the perception shifts from viewing them as "risk-free" to recognizing the associated political and fiscal uncertainties [4][5]. - The combination of external tariffs and internal tax cuts in U.S. policy has made foreign investors, particularly long-term holders like China, more wary of continuing to purchase U.S. debt [6][19]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - The ongoing political tensions in the U.S., particularly the criticism directed at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by former President Trump, reflect a broader conflict between short-term political goals and long-term economic stability [10][12]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived to be under threat as political pressures mount, which could impact future monetary policy decisions and investor confidence in U.S. financial governance [15][19]. Group 5: Global Implications - The shift in China's strategy to reduce its U.S. Treasury holdings is indicative of a potential turning point in the global financial landscape, as countries begin to explore alternatives to reliance on the U.S. dollar and its associated risks [18][19]. - This environment necessitates a careful management of existing U.S. debt assets and a diversification of reserves to mitigate risks, emphasizing the importance of maintaining financial stability in a changing geopolitical context [18].

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing attention on government debt in China as a key variable in macroeconomic operations, highlighting its scale, structure, function, and sustainability amidst a complex economic environment [1] Government Bond Types and Maturity Structure - The types of government bonds in China are primarily classified into deficit debt and self-repaying debt, with a predominance of medium-term bonds and a relative scarcity of short-term bonds [2] - Government bonds serve as a source of liquidity in the financial market and are an important component of wealth for non-financial sectors, but their role in wealth composition for residents remains underexplored [2] Debt Growth Rate Comparison - Since the 21st century, there has been a global focus on debt crises, with a notable increase in government debt in China, particularly local government debt, while the debt growth rate for non-financial sectors, including households and enterprises, has been declining [3] Bond Purchaser Structure - The identity of bond purchasers significantly influences the macroeconomic impact of bond issuance, with non-financial sector purchases involving only fund transfers and no monetary creation, while central bank purchases can create money [4] - In China, commercial banks are the primary holders of government bonds, which has implications for inflation effects [6] Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt sustainability is a long-standing and contentious issue, with international standards suggesting a deficit rate not exceeding 3% and a debt-to-GDP ratio not exceeding 60% [11] - The sustainability of debt can be assessed through various metrics, including the ratio of debt to earnings before interest and taxes for enterprises and the ratio of debt to payable income streams at the macro level [11] Role of Central Banks in Debt Management - The role of central banks in managing government bonds and liquidity is crucial, with recent reports emphasizing the need for liquidity management to align with economic growth and price stability [12] - Central banks are increasingly focusing on asset price stability and have adapted their policies to enhance financial market stability, particularly in the context of government bond management [13]