Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that J&T Express (01519) is expected to experience significant business growth driven by e-commerce dividends in Southeast Asia and new markets, alongside improved profitability in China. The firm forecasts adjusted net profits for J&T Express to reach $3.71 billion, $5.71 billion, and $7.64 billion for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 85.2%, 54.0%, and 33.8% respectively, with corresponding adjusted EPS of $0.040, $0.061, and $0.083 per share. Given the high growth potential in Southeast Asia and Latin America, the company is assigned a target P/E of 27x for 2026, leading to a reasonable valuation of HKD 12.90 and a "Buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - J&T Express is a global express delivery company that originated in Southeast Asia and has successfully expanded into China and Latin America, with a delivery network covering 13 countries. The core investment logic is based on the simultaneous benefits from the rise of e-commerce and social media platforms in Southeast Asia, profitability recovery in China due to "anti-involution," and explosive growth in new market e-commerce [2]. Group 2 - Southeast Asia serves as the company's foundational market and profit "ballast," maintaining the industry's leading market share. In 2025, the company capitalized on the explosive growth of TikTok Shop in Southeast Asia, increasing its market share to 32.8% (H1 2025). The package volume in Southeast Asia is expected to grow by 65% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with adjusted EBIT increasing by 74% in the first half of 2025. The market is anticipated to sustain high growth rates over the next five years, contributing significantly to profit increments [3]. Group 3 - The Chinese market accounts for approximately 75% of the company's package volume. The advanced and mature express delivery technology and experience developed in China are being systematically applied to Southeast Asia and new markets, helping to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness. With the ongoing "anti-involution" in the Chinese express delivery industry and price increases in various regions, the revenue per package is showing a notable recovery, leading to improved profitability in the Chinese segment [4]. Group 4 - The new markets in Latin America and the Middle East have a higher GDP and per capita income than Southeast Asia, but lower e-commerce penetration, indicating significant growth potential. The e-commerce market is expected to accelerate in 2025. Leveraging its mature regional agency model and global network capabilities, the company has partnered with leading platforms like Mercado Libre and TikTok Shop to steadily increase its market share in these fragmented markets. In the first three quarters of 2025, package volume in new markets grew by 31%, and for the first half of 2025, the new markets achieved positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time, indicating operational stabilization. With rapid growth in business volume leading to economies of scale, the company is expected to achieve adjusted EBIT breakeven in 2025, making new markets a crucial growth engine in the medium to long term [5].

极兔速递是一家从东南亚崛起，并成功拓展至中国及拉美中东的全球化快递企业，快递网络覆盖了13个 国家，当前，核心投资逻辑在于，公司正同时享受东南亚电商及社媒平台崛起、中国的"反内卷"下盈利 修复与标准输出以及新市场电商的爆发式增长三重红利。 东南亚：盈利压舱石，乘社交电商东风而上 东南亚是公司的起家市场和利润"压舱石"，市占率稳居行业第一。2025年，公司成功把握了TikTokShop 在东南亚爆发式增长的战略机遇，通过深度合作承接其主流件量，驱动市场份额持续提升至32.8% (2025H1)。东南亚2025年前三季度包裹量同比增长65%，2025年上半年经调整EBIT同比增长74%。通过 持续的成本优化和运营经验赋能，在获取市场份额的同时保持了健康的盈利能力，东南亚市场有望在未 来5年持续保持较高增长速度，并贡献主要的利润增量。 中国：规模基本盘，海外标准输出基地 国盛证券（002670）发布研报称，东南亚与新市场的电商红利带来的极兔速递-W(01519)业务规模增 长，中国的盈利能力改善，将共同驱动公司未来业绩高增。该行预测极兔速递2025-2027年经调整净利 润分别为3.71/5.71/7.64亿美元， ...