Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a stable and volatile trend on Thursday. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - sentiment improved, and the expected production cut in Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries strengthened, reducing the supply pressure. It is expected that the contract will maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a stable and volatile trend on Thursday. After the digestion of previous negative factors, methanol rebounded from an oversold situation. However, the current supply - demand structure of methanol is still weak, and it is expected that the contract will have limited upward space and weak continuation of the rally [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 showed a stable and volatile trend on Thursday. OPEC + oil - producing countries accelerated the expansion of production capacity, increasing supply pressure. The International Energy Agency and the US Energy Agency lowered the global crude oil demand forecasts for this year and next. Against the backdrop of a weakening supply - demand structure and the cooling of geopolitical risks due to the US mediation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the oil premium shrank. In the short term, supported by the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, it is expected that domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices will maintain a stable and volatile trend [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons (0.50% decline) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12% to 76,900 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% to 539,800 tons. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.64 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.12 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [8]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and 10.55 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and 3.69 percentage points from the same period last year [8]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%, with the growth rates 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points higher than those from January to June [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [9]. - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 79.00%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.8633 million tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 18,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 79,000 tons compared with 1.7843 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.13%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.17%, a slight week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.56%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.21% [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a slight week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a slight month - on - month increase of 3.61%. As of August 15, 2025, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 172 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week increase of 162 yuan/ton and a slight month - on - month decrease of 29 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 891,100 tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 295,100 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 102,100 tons. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 295,700 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 1,900 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 56,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 142,700 tons compared with 438,400 tons last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 411, a slight week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 74 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.327 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 27,000 barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 427 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels and a significant year - on - year decrease of 3.98 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.051 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 45,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 403 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 226,000 barrels [12]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.4%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.5 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 1.7 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.9 percentage points [12]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 116,742 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts and a significant decrease of 66,428 contracts (a decline of 36.27%) compared with the July average of 183,170 contracts. As of August 12, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was maintained at 199,820 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts and a significant decrease of 20,256 contracts (a decline of 9.20%) compared with the July average of 220,076 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,600 yuan/ton | - 250 yuan/ton | 15,800 yuan/ton | + 125 yuan/ton | - 1200 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2330 yuan/ton | + 20 yuan/ton | 2420 yuan/ton | - 4 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan/ton | + 4 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 457.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.7 yuan/barrel | 489.3 yuan/barrel | + 6.5 yuan/barrel | - 31.6 yuan/barrel | - 7.2 yuan/barrel | [13] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Includes charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][15][20][22][24] - Methanol: Includes charts of methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][32][34][36] - Crude Oil: Includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][43][45][47][49]