投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 9 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏空氛围主导 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，冲高回落， 震荡偏弱的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 14990 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.76%至 14985 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度升阔至 50 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 原油：本周二国内原油期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，弱势下行， 大幅收 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 12 月 8 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 多空强弱持续 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，冲高回落， 震荡偏弱的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 15065 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收低 0.03%至 15065 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度收敛至 35 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：在经历前期一轮企稳反弹行情以后，甲醇期货市场利多因素逐渐消化，暂时步入多空分 歧阶段。未来伊朗甲醇装置限气降负将逐渐增多，供应预期回落，同时我国进口压力减轻，港口库 存或步入去化周期。不过目前国内甲醇 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 1 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏多氛围主导 能化震荡企稳 核心观点 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 15250 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 1.07%至 15250 元/吨。1-5 月差贴水幅度收敛至 10 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量减仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating stronger, and slightly rising. The intraday price center shifted slightly up to 15,280 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose 1.13% to 15,280 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 50 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,134 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton, and the closing price rose 1.20% to 2,114 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 94 yuan/ton. With the improvement trend of methanol supply - demand expectations, the methanol futures price is expected to have a valuation repair market [7]. - On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 448.1 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 442.8 yuan/barrel, and the closing price rose 1.08% to 447.6 yuan/barrel. The supply surplus competes with the seasonal demand recovery, combined with the weakening of macro - sentiment. The Russia - Ukraine conflict may end, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil weakens [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons or 3.60%. The bonded area inventory was 71,900 tons, an increase of 7.97%; the general trade inventory was 397,000 tons, an increase of 2.84%. The warehousing rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 8.20 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.20 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.03 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.63 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased this week, mainly due to maintenance in some semi - steel and all - steel tire sample enterprises, caused by insufficient orders, slow shipment, and equipment transformation. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will recover next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. The automobile market maintained a good development trend, and the monthly production and sales reached a new high in the same period [10]. - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. This is the seventh consecutive month of year - on - year positive growth since April. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles, and it is certain that the annual sales will exceed one million, and may even reach 1.1 million [10]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons compared to 1.8802 million tons last year [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.78%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month rebound of 537 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2439 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 184,600 tons. As of the week of November 27, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 373,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,300 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 4,500 tons compared to 369,200 tons last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 419, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 60. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.814 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 321,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 426.9 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.774 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 1.519 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 21.753 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 68,000 barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 411 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 92.3%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 percentage points, a month - on - month rebound of 5.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.8 percentage points [13]. - As of October 7, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 74,309 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 28,991 contracts and a significant decrease of 23,539 contracts or 31.68% compared to the average in September. As of November 18, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 177,827 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 13,249 contracts and a significant increase of 58,416 contracts or 48.92% compared to the average in October [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,650 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,280 yuan/ton | +85 yuan/ton | - 630 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,095 yuan/ton | +5 yuan/ton | 2,114 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | - 19 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 411.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 447.6 yuan/barrel | +2.6 yuan/barrel | - 36.1 yuan/barrel | - 2.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, rubber futures inventory, methanol basis, methanol port inventory, crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc. [15][28][40]

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of July, domestic methanol futures prices have been continuously declining, with the 2601 contract dropping below 2000 yuan/ton, marking the lowest level since October 2020. The decline is primarily due to increased imports and high port inventories, which are expected to persist into the first quarter of next year [1][5]. Group 1: Domestic Supply and Inventory - Domestic operating rates remain high, with a current operating rate of 76.5% as of November 14, 2023. The coal-based methanol operating rate is at 82.5%, while natural gas-based and coke oven gas-based rates are at 50.6% and 59.4%, respectively. There are few domestic maintenance activities, but some natural gas-based facilities may undergo maintenance starting late November [2]. - Port inventories have surged to over 1.6 million tons, the highest level in recent years, driven by continuous imports since June. The expected import volumes for November and December suggest that inventory reduction is unlikely until at least 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Profit Margins - Upstream profits have been significantly compressed due to rising coal prices since September, which have increased production costs for coal-based methanol. Despite this, methanol prices have fallen, leading to some regions experiencing profits dropping below breakeven levels [4]. - Conversely, downstream profits have begun to recover, particularly in the olefins sector, where profits have rebounded to their highest levels of the year following the decline in methanol prices. Traditional downstream profits are also improving, although they are expected to remain at historically low levels in 2024 and 2025 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The recent acceleration in methanol price declines is attributed to increased imports and sustained high port inventories, which are expected to limit price recovery. If Iranian methanol facilities begin to shut down as planned at the end of November, import pressures may ease, but high inventories will continue to suppress prices into 2025 [5][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, decreasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly declining. The closing price slightly dropped by 0.59% to 15,240 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of decreasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The closing price slightly decreased by 0.35% to 2,004 yuan/ton. The current domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The closing price slightly decreased by 1.67% to 447.4 yuan/barrel. The bearish atmosphere has intensified. With the game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, and the interference of geopolitical factors, the oil price rebound is blocked and may fluctuate widely [6]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of November 16, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 452,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons or 0.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.76% to 66,600 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 1.13% to 386,000 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of both bonded and general trade warehouses decreased [9]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will recover next week, but the overall demand improvement is limited [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.77%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.17%, a month - on - month slight increase of 1.06%, and a year - on - year slight increase of 4.08%. The average weekly methanol output was 2.0142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,700 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 134,000 tons [11]. - As of the week of November 21, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.28%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.05%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.31%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.96%. The acetic acid operating rate was 66.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.89%. The MTBE operating rate was 58.91%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 percentage points [11]. - As of November 21, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was 316 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 7 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant rebound of 537 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 21, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 1.2439 million tons, and the inland methanol inventory was 358,700 tons [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 417, a week - on - week increase of 3, and a year - on - year decrease of 61. The average daily crude oil production was 13.834 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 barrels/day and a year - on - year significant increase of 633,000 barrels/day [12]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 424.2 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 3.426 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 6.137 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 698,000 barrels week - on - week, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 533,000 barrels week - on - week [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil was 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts from the August average, a decrease of 15.65%. As of November 11, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds was 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts from the October average, an increase of 37.82% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,240 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | - 390 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,017 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 2,004 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | +13 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 425.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 447.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.1 yuan/barrel | - 21.7 yuan/barrel | +7.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: Charts include rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][23] - Methanol: Charts include methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][37] - Crude Oil: Charts include crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [41][43][45]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol futures are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of being weak, a medium - term view of being volatile, and an intraday view of being strong. The overall reference view is a strong operation. After the previous sharp decline, the methanol futures have gradually digested the negative impact of the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The future downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited, and the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Wednesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - For methanol 2601, the short - term is weak, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is strong, with a reference view of strong operation. The night - session decline of the 2601 contract on Tuesday slowed down, and the price slightly rose [1][5]. Driving Logic - After the previous sharp decline, the methanol futures have digested the negative impact of the weak supply - demand fundamentals. The loss of coal - to - methanol plants is increasing, and the supply - side contraction expectation is strengthening. There is an expectation of gas restrictions for southwest natural - gas - to - methanol plants due to the approaching winter heating season. However, domestic port inventories are still high, imports remain at a high level, and demand continues to be weak. With the loosening of supply - side expectations, the downward space of domestic methanol futures may be limited [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating and rebounding, and slightly closing up. The intraday price center of gravity slightly moved up to the 15,300 yuan/ton line. At the close, the price slightly rose 0.33% to 15,295 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 90 yuan/ton. After the macro - drive weakened, the domestic rubber market returned to a market dominated by supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,036 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,003 yuan/ton. At the close, it slightly fell 0.29% to 2,030 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 123 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing down. The futures price rose to a maximum of 466.2 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 457.8 yuan/barrel. At the close, it slightly fell 0.43% to 458.8 yuan/barrel. There were differences between long and short positions. The game between supply surplus and seasonal demand recovery, combined with geopolitical factors, hindered the oil price rebound, and the oil price might fluctuate widely [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber** - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons or 0.40%. The bonded area inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 0.13 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.75 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 1.96 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will further decline next week [9]. - In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and 3%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales reached 27.692 million and 27.687 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000 vehicles [10]. - **Methanol** - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.94%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.69%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.44%, and a slight increase of 3.67% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9761 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 16,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 7,600 tons, and a significant increase of 112,000 tons compared with 1.8641 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.23%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.37%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.27%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.83%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 63.64%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4.81%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.91%, a week - on - week slight increase of 2.41%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.82%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.12 percentage points and a month - on - month significant decrease of 6.54%. As of November 14, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 237 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 109 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant rebound of 457 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of November 14, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.279 million tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7,100 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 20,100 tons, and a significant increase of 246,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of November 13, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 369,300 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 17,200 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 9,400 tons, and a slight decrease of 21,200 tons compared with 390,500 tons in the same period last year [12]. - **Crude Oil** - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 414, unchanged week - on - week and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.862 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 211,000 barrels/day and a significant increase of 462,000 barrels/day compared with the same period last year, reaching a historical high [12]. - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427.6 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 6.413 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.166 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.519 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 346,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 410.4 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 798,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a week - on - week slight recovery of 3.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 3.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight decrease of 2.0 percentage points [13]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 4,249 contracts and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts compared with the average in August, a decrease of 15.65%. As of November 11, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 164,578 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 11,817 contracts and a significant increase of 45,167 contracts compared with the average in October, an increase of 37.82% [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,295 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | - 495 yuan/ton | +20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,030 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,030 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 430.5 yuan/barrel | +0.3 yuan/barrel | 458.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | - 28.3 yuan/barrel | +0.6 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (such as methanol basis, methanol port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, etc.), but no specific chart analysis is provided [15][28][40]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. The price center of the contract slightly moved up to around 15,200 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.56% increase at 15,220 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 80 yuan/ton. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market has returned to a market dominated by supply - and - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, oscillating stably, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 2,117 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,084 yuan/ton, closing with a 0.67% increase at 2,108 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread discount narrowed to 103 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic methanol futures are dominated by weak supply - and - demand fundamentals [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating strongly, and slightly rising. The price reached a maximum of 472.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 464.9 yuan/barrel, closing with a 1.58% increase at 469.1 yuan/barrel. The sharp rise in European diesel prices and the increasing expectation of winter heating demand have led to a recovery of optimism in the oil market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.74% to 67,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 0.60% to 381,700 tons. In the week ending November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 0.77 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 7.03 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.51 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 27.692 million and 27.687 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.2% and 12.4%. In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold, a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales reached 916,000, and it is expected that the annual sales will exceed one million and may even reach 1.1 million [9][10]. - **Methanol**: In the week ending November 7, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.63%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. The average weekly methanol production was 1.9921 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40,900 tons, and a significant increase of 96,300 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rates of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid decreased week - on - week, while the MTBE operating rate increased slightly. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 83.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was 113 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 238 yuan/ton. The total methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.2861 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,100 tons, and a significant increase of 251,800 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 386,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,000 tons, and a significant decrease of 34,900 tons compared with the same period last year [11][12]. - **Crude Oil**: In the week ending October 31, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 414, a week - on - week decrease of 6 and a decrease of 65 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.651 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.51 million barrels per day, reaching a historical high. The commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 5.202 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.49 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, increased slightly week - on - week, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory also increased slightly. The refinery operating rate in the United States was 86.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5 percentage points. The average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil increased significantly week - on - week but decreased significantly compared with the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds decreased significantly week - on - week but increased significantly compared with the October average [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,220 yuan/ton | +125 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | - 125 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,080 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | 2,108 yuan/ton | +26 yuan/ton | - 28 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 429.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.2 yuan/barrel | 469.1 yuan/barrel | +7.8 yuan/barrel | - 39.7 yuan/barrel | - 8.0 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report includes charts of rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts of methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [28][30][31]. - **Crude Oil**: The report includes charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US commercial crude oil inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [40][42][44].