投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前国内外 甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。受国内煤 炭期货价格小幅上涨带动，叠加宏观因子改善，偏弱产业因子被压制，本周一夜盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约维持震荡窄幅整理的走势，期价略微收涨 0.00%至 2423 元/吨。预计本周二国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 22 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 多空因素博弈 能化涨跌互现 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周五国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 小幅收低的走势，盘中期价重心小幅下移至 15625 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收低 0.95%至 15625 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度收敛至 955 元/吨。随着前期利多因素消化，在国内轮胎库存回升，外销增速放缓 的不利影响下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏弱的走 势。 甲醇：本周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2425 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2398 元/吨，收盘时略微收低 0.58%至 2405 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 111 元/吨。随着前期利空因素消化，甲醇迎来超跌反弹的走势，不 过当前甲醇供需结构依然偏弱，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持震荡整理的走势。 作者声明 予的期货从业 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-08-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空因素分歧，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 参考观点：偏弱运行 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，甲醇重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前国内外 甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。受国内煤 炭期货价格小幅下跌拖累，本周四夜 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 21 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多情绪回暖 能化震荡偏强 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现震荡企稳的态势。随 着美联储降息预期升温，宏观情绪改善，叠加东南亚产胶国减产预期 增强，供应压力减轻。在偏多氛围支撑下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持震荡偏强的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现震荡企稳的走势。随 着前期利空因素消化，甲醇迎来超跌反弹的走势，不过当前甲醇供需 结构依然偏弱，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约续涨乏力，空间受限。 作者声明 原油：本周四国内原油期货 2510 合约呈现震荡企稳的走势。由 于 OPEC+产油国再度加快扩大产能规模，供应压力持续回升，同时 国际能源署和美国能源署纷纷调降今明两年全球原油需求预期。在 供需结构转弱的背景下，叠加美国调停俄乌冲突，地缘风险降温导 致原油溢价缩水。短期受益于美联储降息预期升温支撑，预计后市 国内外原油期货价格或维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, stopping the decline and stabilizing, and slightly rebounding on Wednesday. However, the continuation of the rise is weak and the space is limited [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract showed a trend of decreasing volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower on Wednesday. The price of domestic and foreign crude oil futures is expected to maintain a weak - fluctuating trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% [9]. - As of August 15, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points month - on - month and 10.55 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points month - on - month and 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12% [10]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 79.00%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.16%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.8633 million tons [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.17%, a week - on - week increase of 2.90%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 86.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.12%, a week - on - week increase of 1.21% [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.18 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.61%. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 172 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of August 15, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 891,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 87,800 tons. As of the week of August 14, 2025, the inland methanol inventory totaled 295,700 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.327 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 43,000 barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 427 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.036 million barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 96.4% [13]. - As of August 12, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures were 116,742 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 25,087 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 199,820 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 30,594 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The futures main contract was 2,424 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - The spot price of crude oil was 456.8 yuan/barrel, an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel from the previous day. The futures main contract was 482.8 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 1.4 yuan/barrel from the previous day [14]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report includes various charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, such as rubber basis, 9 - 1 month spread, methanol basis, 9 - 1 month spread, crude oil basis, etc. [15][27][40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 18 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏空因素压制 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周一国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量减仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 15820 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.25%至 15820 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔至 1035 元/吨。受需求因子偏强支撑，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约 或维持震荡偏强的走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 甲醇：本周一国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓，弱势下行， 小幅收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2420 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2385 元/吨，收盘时小幅收低 1.40%至 2396 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度升阔 至 103 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格大幅回落拖累，叠加甲醇偏弱的供 需基本面。在偏空氛围压制下，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持偏弱格局运行。 作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation on the weaker side [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation on the weaker side, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.86% to 2409 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation - on - the - weaker - side trend on Monday [5]. Core Logic - The methanol market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. High supply pressure at home and abroad and off - season downstream demand lead to a weak supply - demand structure and a downward - moving price center [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 13 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围消化 能化震荡偏弱 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡整理， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微下移至 15800 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.13%至 15800 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大至 1010 元/吨。受益于国内汽车产销量数据好于预期，重卡销量数据同 比增长。在需求因素驱动下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持 震荡偏强的走势。 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏弱， 略微收低的走势，期价最高上涨至 2497 元/吨一线，最低下探至 2477 元/吨，收盘时略微收低 0.28%至 2479 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大 至 104 元/吨。受国内煤炭期货价格冲高回落影响，叠加甲醇偏弱的供 需基本面。在偏空氛围压制下，预计后市国内甲醇期货 2601 合约或维 持震荡偏弱的走势。 予的期货从业资格证 ...