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国泰海通|基金配置:多空交织,权益或震荡,黄金待时机
Core Viewpoint - The report aims to capture global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and design corresponding investment strategies, including stock-bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Stock-bond target allocation strategy utilizes a risk budget design method to construct a stock-bond portfolio, achieving expected levels while providing a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation [2]. - Low-volatility "fixed income +" strategy constructs a portfolio with a target allocation of stocks: gold: bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.89% and a maximum drawdown of -4.92% over the backtest period [2]. - Global asset allocation strategy I combines A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieving an annualized return of 11.30% and a maximum drawdown of -7.97% [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Global asset allocation strategy II, which includes Japanese and Indian stocks, has an annualized return of 10.05% and a maximum drawdown of -9.97% over the same backtest period [4]. - As of June 2025, the performance metrics for the low-volatility strategy show a return of 0.74% for the month and 3.88% year-to-date [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I recorded a June return of 1.55% and an 8.32% year-to-date return [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - For July 2025, the report suggests that A-shares may remain in a range-bound pattern due to moderate economic recovery and external disturbances, with a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy expectations [5]. - The report indicates that the domestic bond market continues to face pressure, recommending a focus on short-term products while considering mid to long-term bonds during adjustments [5]. - The outlook for US stocks suggests continued wide fluctuations due to uncertain economic policies, while Japanese stocks may present some allocation opportunities due to improving economic conditions [5].