Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stable investment strategies in the face of declining investment returns, suggesting that investors should not panic and instead consider strategic asset allocation to optimize their portfolios [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the current trend of declining investment returns, highlighting that many investors are feeling uncertain about their financial strategies [1] - It suggests that a diversified investment approach can help mitigate risks associated with lower returns, encouraging investors to explore various asset classes [1] - The piece offers practical tips and insights for investors to enhance their portfolio performance, focusing on the importance of long-term planning and adaptability [1]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a bifurcation, with small-cap stocks performing well while blue-chip stocks remain stagnant [5] - Bank stocks are an exception but are showing signs of weakness recently [6] - The prevailing sentiment among some market participants is that being conservative is a sign of laziness, which can mislead new investors [7] Group 2 - The absence of a significant rise in the CSI 300 index indicates that a true bull market cannot be declared; the current situation is merely a structural market [8] - Small-cap stocks are perceived as performing well, but this is misleading as they have also faced significant declines in the past [10] - Comparing historical peaks, the CSI 2000 index has dropped 29.18% and the CSI 300 has dropped 21.21% since their 2015 highs, indicating that small-cap stocks have underperformed more severely [12] Group 3 - New investors are encouraged to engage in extensive reading and learning about investment principles, market history, and financial analysis [13] - The notion that stocks related to popular themes can sustain high valuations indefinitely is criticized as a form of indoctrination rather than genuine learning [13] - The primary reason for retail investors' losses is buying at high prices, which can be avoided by not chasing hot stocks [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current distribution of market capitalization among major indices in the A-share market, highlighting a significant decline in the proportion of the CSI 300 index compared to other indices, particularly in the context of recent market volatility and liquidity issues [2][3][5]. Market Capitalization Distribution - As of August 8, the CSI 300 index accounts for only 45.75% of the total A-share market capitalization, a notable decrease from previous levels [3][5]. - The distribution of free float market capitalization among major indices is as follows: CSI 300 at 19.82 trillion, CSI 500 at 7.22 trillion, CSI 1000 at 6.77 trillion, CSI 2000 at 5.94 trillion, and the remaining micro-cap stocks at 3.57 trillion [5]. Historical Context and Volatility - The article references significant drops in the CSI 2000 index, including a 12.83% decline in a single day in April and a cumulative drop of 35.86% over 54 trading days from late 2023 to early 2024 [10][11]. - The author suggests that a rapid decline in micro-cap stocks relative to the CSI 300 could occur again, drawing parallels to past market behaviors [13][14]. Investment Strategy and Risk Management - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio that includes both dividend stocks and micro-cap stocks, suggesting that investors should be prepared for potential downturns in micro-cap stocks [19][20]. - It highlights two specific micro-cap funds, the Guotai Junan CSI 1000 Index Fund and the Nuon Multi-Strategy Fund, showcasing their performance and the potential for significant returns following market corrections [22][25]. - The article advocates for a strategic approach to investing in micro-cap stocks, suggesting that while volatility and drawdowns are expected, they can lead to substantial long-term gains if managed correctly [27][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the financial products sector [1]. Core Views - The report expresses a viewpoint of "not fearing adjustments, expecting wide fluctuations" in the market [1][17]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (July 28 - August 1, 2025) - The top three broad indices were: - Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (1.09%) - Sci-Tech Innovation Index (0.65%) - Sci-Tech 100 (0.52%) - The bottom three broad indices were: - North Certificate 50 (-2.70%) - Dividend Index (-2.67%) - China Securities Dividend (-2.65%) [10][11]. A-share Market Outlook (August 4 - August 8, 2025) - The monthly macro model score for August is 0, with a historical probability of 75% for an increase, indicating a high likelihood of continued upward movement in the A-share market [24]. - The technical timing model shows that the Wind All A Index has a risk level of 103.88, indicating an overheated market, which may lead to increased volatility [17][21]. - The report suggests that the market may experience wide fluctuations, but structural opportunities will continue to emerge [20]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, considering the current market conditions and potential for future recovery [5][20]. Risk Trend Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three broad indices in the risk trend model were: - Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (26.99) - China Securities Dividend (26.91) - North Certificate 50 (26.68) - The bottom three were: - ChiNext Index (14.51) - CSI 300 (15.78) - Shenzhen Component Index (16.69) [32][36]. Style Index Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three style indices were: - Large Cap Value (24.87) - Mid Cap Growth (23.18) - Mid Cap Value (21.32) - The bottom three were: - Financial (7.69) - Stability (13.16) - Cycle (15.14) [42][46]. Industry Index Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three industry indices were: - Food and Beverage (58.54) - Banking (40.70) - Beauty and Personal Care (39.96) - The bottom three were: - Non-ferrous Metals (13.27) - Composite (13.71) - Electric Power Equipment (15.80) [53][57].

Group 1: Overview of Public FOF Funds in Q2 2025 - As of Q2 2025, a total of 518 FOF products have been established, with a combined scale of 166.198 billion yuan, representing a 10.01% increase compared to Q1 2025 [1][6][9] - The scale of different types of FOFs in Q2 2025 is as follows: 92.091 billion yuan for bond-type FOFs, 32.454 billion yuan for balanced-type FOFs, and 41.652 billion yuan for equity-type FOFs, with median returns of 1.20%, 1.76%, and 2.62% respectively [1][6][16] Group 2: FOF Fund Manager Preferences - The most held active equity funds by FOFs in Q2 2025 are Dachen Gaoxin A, Fuguo Stable Growth A, and Bodao Growth Zhihang C, with the largest holdings being Dachen Gaoxin A, Yifangda Kerong, and Yifangda Information Industry Selected C [2][23] - In the bond fund category, the most held funds are Yifangda Suifeng Tianli A, Guangfa Pure Bond A, and Yifangda Credit Bond A, with the largest holdings being Boshi Credit Preferred A, Yifangda Suifeng Tianli A, and Boshi Credit Pure Bond A [2][23] Group 3: Changes in Fund Allocations - Compared to Q1 2025, the most net increased active equity funds by FOFs in Q2 2025 are Dachen Gaoxin A, Huashang Yuanjian Value C, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Silver Jewelry A, with the largest net increase in scale for Jiao Yin Technology Innovation C, Yifangda Smart Manufacturing Advantage C, and Yifangda Supply-side Reform [3][39] - In the bond fund category, the most net increased funds are Xingquan Stable A, Huatai Bairui Seasonal Red A, and Fuguo Industrial Bond A, with the largest net increase in scale for Boshi Credit Preferred A, Boshi Credit Pure Bond A, and Boshi Anyue Short Bond A [3][39] Group 4: FOF Fund Managers - The top three active equity fund managers with the most FOF allocations are Liu Xu, Fan Yan, and Xu Yan, while the top three "fixed income +" fund managers are Wang Xiaocheng, Peng Chengjun, and Zhang Ting [4][23] Group 5: FOF Stock Investment Situation - As of Q2 2025, 149 FOFs have directly invested in stocks, with the highest proportion of stock investments in balanced-type FOFs, followed by equity-type FOFs [5][6] - The top three stocks held by FOFs are Ningde Times, Changjiang Electric Power, and Zijin Mining, with the highest market value held in Ningde Times, Haomai Technology, and Wuliangye [5][6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry has reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with both total fund management scale and non-monetary fund management scale reaching historical highs, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2]. Fund Management Scale - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total public fund management scale reached 34 trillion yuan, while the non-monetary fund management scale was 20 trillion yuan, both marking historical peaks [2][3]. - The total public fund scale increased by 7.04% from Q1 2025 and by 10.76% year-on-year from Q2 2024 [2]. - The non-monetary fund scale grew by 6.85% from the previous quarter, reaching 20.11 trillion yuan [2]. Fund Types and Performance - The largest market scales were seen in money market funds and bond funds, with sizes of 13.93 trillion yuan and 10.77 trillion yuan, reflecting increases of 7.32% and 8.74% respectively [3]. - Equity funds reached a scale of 4.74 trillion yuan, growing by 6.06% quarter-on-quarter, while mixed funds saw minimal growth [3]. - Commodity funds and fund of funds (FOF) experienced significant growth, with increases of 47.79% and 10.28%, respectively [3]. Investment Trends - Public funds increased their allocations to the financial and technology sectors, with increases of 1.82% and 1.71%, while reducing allocations to the consumer sector by 3.9% [5]. - The top three sectors by allocation weight were electronics, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment & new energy, with weights of 18.88%, 11.11%, and 8.8% respectively [5]. - Notably, the automotive sector, which had seen significant investment in the previous quarter, experienced a reduction in holdings [6]. Major Holdings - The top ten holdings of public funds included Tencent Holdings, CATL, and Kweichow Moutai, with Tencent's total market value held by public funds at approximately 59.2 billion yuan [6][7]. - New entrants to the top ten holdings included Xiaomi Group and New Yisheng, while BYD and Wuliangye exited the list [7]. Investor Behavior - Investors showed a preference for money market funds, bond funds, commodity funds, and QDII funds, leading to net subscriptions in these categories, while equity funds and FOFs faced net redemptions [8][9]. - The total fund share exceeded 30 trillion shares by the end of June, with a net subscription of 1.25 trillion shares in the quarter [8]. - Money market funds and bond funds were the main contributors to net subscriptions, with net subscriptions of 887.67 billion shares and 459.25 billion shares, respectively [9]. Redemption Trends - Equity funds experienced net redemptions totaling 140.27 billion shares, with actively managed equity funds leading in redemptions [10]. - FOFs also faced net redemptions of 5.53 billion shares, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from these products [11].

Core Viewpoint - The report aims to capture global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and design corresponding investment strategies, including stock-bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Stock-bond target allocation strategy utilizes a risk budget design method to construct a stock-bond portfolio, achieving expected levels while providing a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation [2]. - Low-volatility "fixed income +" strategy constructs a portfolio with a target allocation of stocks: gold: bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.89% and a maximum drawdown of -4.92% over the backtest period [2]. - Global asset allocation strategy I combines A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieving an annualized return of 11.30% and a maximum drawdown of -7.97% [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Global asset allocation strategy II, which includes Japanese and Indian stocks, has an annualized return of 10.05% and a maximum drawdown of -9.97% over the same backtest period [4]. - As of June 2025, the performance metrics for the low-volatility strategy show a return of 0.74% for the month and 3.88% year-to-date [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I recorded a June return of 1.55% and an 8.32% year-to-date return [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - For July 2025, the report suggests that A-shares may remain in a range-bound pattern due to moderate economic recovery and external disturbances, with a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy expectations [5]. - The report indicates that the domestic bond market continues to face pressure, recommending a focus on short-term products while considering mid to long-term bonds during adjustments [5]. - The outlook for US stocks suggests continued wide fluctuations due to uncertain economic policies, while Japanese stocks may present some allocation opportunities due to improving economic conditions [5].

Market Review - The A-share market saw all major broad-based indices rise last week, with the CSI 1000, STAR 50, and CSI 500 indices leading with returns of 3.79%, 2.67%, and 2.63% respectively, while the CSI 300, SSE Composite, and ChiNext indices lagged behind with returns of 1.39%, 1.56%, and 1.61% respectively [7][11] - The trading volume of major broad-based indices decreased last week, with all indices positioned at 75%-90% of their historical percentile levels over the past 52 weeks [12][13] - The defense, aerospace, and computer sectors performed well, with returns of 7.44%, 7.07%, and 6.46% respectively, while the oil, real estate, and utilities sectors underperformed with returns of -1.28%, -0.74%, and -0.02% respectively [14][15] Fund Issuance - A total of 25 new funds were established last week, with a combined issuance scale of 20.856 billion yuan, showing a decrease compared to the previous week [3] - 36 funds were reported for issuance last week, including various ETFs and thematic funds [4][7] Fund Performance - The median returns for active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced mixed funds last week were 2.92%, 2.03%, and 1.61% respectively [22] - Alternative funds have shown the best performance this year, with a median return of 7.41%, while active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced mixed funds had median returns of 6.70%, 3.35%, and 1.02% respectively [22] Bond Market - The central bank's reverse repos net drained 881.3 billion yuan last week, with a total of 1.6592 trillion yuan maturing [16] - The median premium rate for convertible bonds was 28.81%, a decrease of 2.12% from the previous week [20] Fund Manager Changes - Last week, 41 fund companies had changes in the fund manager for 108 fund products, with notable changes in companies like Harvest Fund, Citic Prudential Fund, and Fortune Fund [29]