证券研究报告 | 金工专题报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升 ——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析 投资要点： 主动权益基金规模萎缩，含权债基发行热情高涨 2025 年四季度，公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金规模发生明显切换： 投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上季度规模缩减 1823 亿 元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出，向中低风险的含权 债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基的新发热度升高， 发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。 证券分析师 主动权益基金 2025 年四季度主动权益基金对港股的配置热情明显下降，从 2025 年二季度的 20.44%持续降低到四季度的 16.47%；对于创业板的配置意愿增强，由 2025 年一季 度的 13.46%抬升至 20.85%。 相比 2025 年三季度，主动权益基金显著增配周期板块，周期板块占比升至 28.31%， 环比增加 4.95pct；大金融板块占比由三季度的 4.57%提升 ...

基金研究 | 专题报告 配置型基金系列：细分赛道 Stable beta+ 基金优选 研究结论 报告发布日期 2026 年 01 月 21 日 | 张思宇 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120001 | | --- | --- | | | zhangsiyu1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 王继恒 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090004 | | | wangjiheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 0755-82819271 | 周期热度持续，关注化工主题基金：2026 年 01 月主动权益基金配置月观点 2026-01-08 公募主观多头基金定量跟踪月报（截至 2025 年 12 月底） 2026-01-05 基准之上，何以为胜：主动权益基金基准 的选择与锚定 2025-12-19 基金研究 | 专题报告 —— 配置型基金系列：细分赛道 Stable beta+ 基金优选 目 录 风险提示 指数分类有所错漏，数据计算有所遗误。本报告结论完全基于公开的历史数据进行计 算，对基金产品和基金管理人的研究分析结论并不预示其未来表现，也不 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, the FOF (Fund of Funds) market saw improved performance, with median returns for top-performing products reaching 12.89% and an arithmetic average of 11.83% [1] - A significant disparity in returns was noted, with five FOF products achieving total returns exceeding 50% during the year [1] - The standout performer was Guotai Optimal Navigation One-Year Holding, which led with an annual return of 66.14% [1] Performance Analysis - Several FOF products, including E Fund Advantage Return A and Guotai Industry Rotation A, also reported annual returns above 50%, indicating strong performance in equity markets [1] - High-performing FOFs demonstrated a clear thematic focus in their investment strategies rather than a uniform approach [1] Investment Strategies - Certain FOFs concentrated on distinctive index funds to amplify the market elasticity of specific assets, benefiting from strong trends in precious metals [2] - Others, like E Fund Advantage Return, focused on actively managed equity funds, particularly in technology sectors, showcasing a strategy to achieve excess returns through active management [2] Market Context - The overall recovery in FOF performance in 2025 was closely linked to improvements in the equity market environment, with a stabilization and rebound in large-cap equities supporting the net asset value of underlying FOF assets [2] - The clear structural trends in the market allowed FOFs to effectively leverage their asset allocation flexibility, resulting in notable returns for some products [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a shift in the allocation of actively managed mixed equity funds towards the Science and Technology Innovation Board and Hong Kong stocks, with increased investments in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Allocation Analysis - As of June 30, 2025, actively managed mixed equity funds had a market value allocation of approximately 54.52% in the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards, a decrease of 6.22% from December 31, 2024 [1]. - The allocation in the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards was 31.55% and 22.97%, respectively, down by 2.70% and 3.51% compared to the end of 2024 [1]. - The allocation in the ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Hong Kong stocks increased to 15.38%, 14.26%, and 15.59%, respectively, with increases of 0.19%, 1.88%, and 3.99% [1]. Group 2: Holding Characteristics - As of June 30, 2025, the top 1% of stocks held by actively managed mixed equity funds accounted for approximately 30.06% of the total stock investment value, a slight decrease from 31.51% in the 2024 annual report, indicating a minor reduction in "herding" behavior [2]. - The top ten holdings included two consumer electronics stocks and two internet stocks, with the remaining six from sectors such as lithium batteries, liquor, home appliances, metal mining, optical modules, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. Group 3: Industry Configuration - The top five industries for actively managed mixed equity funds as of June 30, 2025, were electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric power equipment, automotive, and food and beverage [2]. - Excluding passive changes due to industry performance, the report highlights that funds actively increased their holdings in pharmaceuticals, electronics, media, and non-bank financial sectors, while significantly reducing their allocation in the electric power equipment sector [2]. Group 4: Turnover Rate Analysis - The overall turnover rate for actively managed mixed equity funds in the first half of 2025 was 140.81%, an increase of 12.15% compared to the second half of 2024 [3]. - Flexible mixed funds had the highest turnover rate at 157.08%, although this was a decrease from the previous period [3]. - In contrast, balanced mixed funds had a lower turnover rate of 125.23%, while the turnover rate for actively managed open-end equity funds increased by approximately 7.32%, marking the smallest increase among fund types [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stable investment strategies in the face of declining investment returns, suggesting that investors should not panic and instead consider strategic asset allocation to optimize their portfolios [1] Group 1 - The article discusses the current trend of declining investment returns, highlighting that many investors are feeling uncertain about their financial strategies [1] - It suggests that a diversified investment approach can help mitigate risks associated with lower returns, encouraging investors to explore various asset classes [1] - The piece offers practical tips and insights for investors to enhance their portfolio performance, focusing on the importance of long-term planning and adaptability [1]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a bifurcation, with small-cap stocks performing well while blue-chip stocks remain stagnant [5] - Bank stocks are an exception but are showing signs of weakness recently [6] - The prevailing sentiment among some market participants is that being conservative is a sign of laziness, which can mislead new investors [7] Group 2 - The absence of a significant rise in the CSI 300 index indicates that a true bull market cannot be declared; the current situation is merely a structural market [8] - Small-cap stocks are perceived as performing well, but this is misleading as they have also faced significant declines in the past [10] - Comparing historical peaks, the CSI 2000 index has dropped 29.18% and the CSI 300 has dropped 21.21% since their 2015 highs, indicating that small-cap stocks have underperformed more severely [12] Group 3 - New investors are encouraged to engage in extensive reading and learning about investment principles, market history, and financial analysis [13] - The notion that stocks related to popular themes can sustain high valuations indefinitely is criticized as a form of indoctrination rather than genuine learning [13] - The primary reason for retail investors' losses is buying at high prices, which can be avoided by not chasing hot stocks [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current distribution of market capitalization among major indices in the A-share market, highlighting a significant decline in the proportion of the CSI 300 index compared to other indices, particularly in the context of recent market volatility and liquidity issues [2][3][5]. Market Capitalization Distribution - As of August 8, the CSI 300 index accounts for only 45.75% of the total A-share market capitalization, a notable decrease from previous levels [3][5]. - The distribution of free float market capitalization among major indices is as follows: CSI 300 at 19.82 trillion, CSI 500 at 7.22 trillion, CSI 1000 at 6.77 trillion, CSI 2000 at 5.94 trillion, and the remaining micro-cap stocks at 3.57 trillion [5]. Historical Context and Volatility - The article references significant drops in the CSI 2000 index, including a 12.83% decline in a single day in April and a cumulative drop of 35.86% over 54 trading days from late 2023 to early 2024 [10][11]. - The author suggests that a rapid decline in micro-cap stocks relative to the CSI 300 could occur again, drawing parallels to past market behaviors [13][14]. Investment Strategy and Risk Management - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio that includes both dividend stocks and micro-cap stocks, suggesting that investors should be prepared for potential downturns in micro-cap stocks [19][20]. - It highlights two specific micro-cap funds, the Guotai Junan CSI 1000 Index Fund and the Nuon Multi-Strategy Fund, showcasing their performance and the potential for significant returns following market corrections [22][25]. - The article advocates for a strategic approach to investing in micro-cap stocks, suggesting that while volatility and drawdowns are expected, they can lead to substantial long-term gains if managed correctly [27][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the financial products sector [1]. Core Views - The report expresses a viewpoint of "not fearing adjustments, expecting wide fluctuations" in the market [1][17]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (July 28 - August 1, 2025) - The top three broad indices were: - Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (1.09%) - Sci-Tech Innovation Index (0.65%) - Sci-Tech 100 (0.52%) - The bottom three broad indices were: - North Certificate 50 (-2.70%) - Dividend Index (-2.67%) - China Securities Dividend (-2.65%) [10][11]. A-share Market Outlook (August 4 - August 8, 2025) - The monthly macro model score for August is 0, with a historical probability of 75% for an increase, indicating a high likelihood of continued upward movement in the A-share market [24]. - The technical timing model shows that the Wind All A Index has a risk level of 103.88, indicating an overheated market, which may lead to increased volatility [17][21]. - The report suggests that the market may experience wide fluctuations, but structural opportunities will continue to emerge [20]. Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report recommends a balanced ETF allocation strategy, considering the current market conditions and potential for future recovery [5][20]. Risk Trend Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three broad indices in the risk trend model were: - Wind Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (26.99) - China Securities Dividend (26.91) - North Certificate 50 (26.68) - The bottom three were: - ChiNext Index (14.51) - CSI 300 (15.78) - Shenzhen Component Index (16.69) [32][36]. Style Index Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three style indices were: - Large Cap Value (24.87) - Mid Cap Growth (23.18) - Mid Cap Value (21.32) - The bottom three were: - Financial (7.69) - Stability (13.16) - Cycle (15.14) [42][46]. Industry Index Model Results - As of August 1, 2025, the top three industry indices were: - Food and Beverage (58.54) - Banking (40.70) - Beauty and Personal Care (39.96) - The bottom three were: - Non-ferrous Metals (13.27) - Composite (13.71) - Electric Power Equipment (15.80) [53][57].

Group 1: Overview of Public FOF Funds in Q2 2025 - As of Q2 2025, a total of 518 FOF products have been established, with a combined scale of 166.198 billion yuan, representing a 10.01% increase compared to Q1 2025 [1][6][9] - The scale of different types of FOFs in Q2 2025 is as follows: 92.091 billion yuan for bond-type FOFs, 32.454 billion yuan for balanced-type FOFs, and 41.652 billion yuan for equity-type FOFs, with median returns of 1.20%, 1.76%, and 2.62% respectively [1][6][16] Group 2: FOF Fund Manager Preferences - The most held active equity funds by FOFs in Q2 2025 are Dachen Gaoxin A, Fuguo Stable Growth A, and Bodao Growth Zhihang C, with the largest holdings being Dachen Gaoxin A, Yifangda Kerong, and Yifangda Information Industry Selected C [2][23] - In the bond fund category, the most held funds are Yifangda Suifeng Tianli A, Guangfa Pure Bond A, and Yifangda Credit Bond A, with the largest holdings being Boshi Credit Preferred A, Yifangda Suifeng Tianli A, and Boshi Credit Pure Bond A [2][23] Group 3: Changes in Fund Allocations - Compared to Q1 2025, the most net increased active equity funds by FOFs in Q2 2025 are Dachen Gaoxin A, Huashang Yuanjian Value C, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Silver Jewelry A, with the largest net increase in scale for Jiao Yin Technology Innovation C, Yifangda Smart Manufacturing Advantage C, and Yifangda Supply-side Reform [3][39] - In the bond fund category, the most net increased funds are Xingquan Stable A, Huatai Bairui Seasonal Red A, and Fuguo Industrial Bond A, with the largest net increase in scale for Boshi Credit Preferred A, Boshi Credit Pure Bond A, and Boshi Anyue Short Bond A [3][39] Group 4: FOF Fund Managers - The top three active equity fund managers with the most FOF allocations are Liu Xu, Fan Yan, and Xu Yan, while the top three "fixed income +" fund managers are Wang Xiaocheng, Peng Chengjun, and Zhang Ting [4][23] Group 5: FOF Stock Investment Situation - As of Q2 2025, 149 FOFs have directly invested in stocks, with the highest proportion of stock investments in balanced-type FOFs, followed by equity-type FOFs [5][6] - The top three stocks held by FOFs are Ningde Times, Changjiang Electric Power, and Zijin Mining, with the highest market value held in Ningde Times, Haomai Technology, and Wuliangye [5][6]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry has reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with both total fund management scale and non-monetary fund management scale reaching historical highs, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][2]. Fund Management Scale - As of the end of Q2 2025, the total public fund management scale reached 34 trillion yuan, while the non-monetary fund management scale was 20 trillion yuan, both marking historical peaks [2][3]. - The total public fund scale increased by 7.04% from Q1 2025 and by 10.76% year-on-year from Q2 2024 [2]. - The non-monetary fund scale grew by 6.85% from the previous quarter, reaching 20.11 trillion yuan [2]. Fund Types and Performance - The largest market scales were seen in money market funds and bond funds, with sizes of 13.93 trillion yuan and 10.77 trillion yuan, reflecting increases of 7.32% and 8.74% respectively [3]. - Equity funds reached a scale of 4.74 trillion yuan, growing by 6.06% quarter-on-quarter, while mixed funds saw minimal growth [3]. - Commodity funds and fund of funds (FOF) experienced significant growth, with increases of 47.79% and 10.28%, respectively [3]. Investment Trends - Public funds increased their allocations to the financial and technology sectors, with increases of 1.82% and 1.71%, while reducing allocations to the consumer sector by 3.9% [5]. - The top three sectors by allocation weight were electronics, pharmaceuticals, and power equipment & new energy, with weights of 18.88%, 11.11%, and 8.8% respectively [5]. - Notably, the automotive sector, which had seen significant investment in the previous quarter, experienced a reduction in holdings [6]. Major Holdings - The top ten holdings of public funds included Tencent Holdings, CATL, and Kweichow Moutai, with Tencent's total market value held by public funds at approximately 59.2 billion yuan [6][7]. - New entrants to the top ten holdings included Xiaomi Group and New Yisheng, while BYD and Wuliangye exited the list [7]. Investor Behavior - Investors showed a preference for money market funds, bond funds, commodity funds, and QDII funds, leading to net subscriptions in these categories, while equity funds and FOFs faced net redemptions [8][9]. - The total fund share exceeded 30 trillion shares by the end of June, with a net subscription of 1.25 trillion shares in the quarter [8]. - Money market funds and bond funds were the main contributors to net subscriptions, with net subscriptions of 887.67 billion shares and 459.25 billion shares, respectively [9]. Redemption Trends - Equity funds experienced net redemptions totaling 140.27 billion shares, with actively managed equity funds leading in redemptions [10]. - FOFs also faced net redemptions of 5.53 billion shares, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from these products [11].