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国泰海通|基金配置:多空交织,权益或震荡,黄金待时机
Core Viewpoint - The report aims to capture global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and design corresponding investment strategies, including stock-bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Stock-bond target allocation strategy utilizes a risk budget design method to construct a stock-bond portfolio, achieving expected levels while providing a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation [2]. - Low-volatility "fixed income +" strategy constructs a portfolio with a target allocation of stocks: gold: bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.89% and a maximum drawdown of -4.92% over the backtest period [2]. - Global asset allocation strategy I combines A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieving an annualized return of 11.30% and a maximum drawdown of -7.97% [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Global asset allocation strategy II, which includes Japanese and Indian stocks, has an annualized return of 10.05% and a maximum drawdown of -9.97% over the same backtest period [4]. - As of June 2025, the performance metrics for the low-volatility strategy show a return of 0.74% for the month and 3.88% year-to-date [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I recorded a June return of 1.55% and an 8.32% year-to-date return [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - For July 2025, the report suggests that A-shares may remain in a range-bound pattern due to moderate economic recovery and external disturbances, with a focus on structural opportunities driven by policy expectations [5]. - The report indicates that the domestic bond market continues to face pressure, recommending a focus on short-term products while considering mid to long-term bonds during adjustments [5]. - The outlook for US stocks suggests continued wide fluctuations due to uncertain economic policies, while Japanese stocks may present some allocation opportunities due to improving economic conditions [5].
国泰海通|基金配置:权益稳扎稳打,黄金短期震荡——大类资产配置多维度解决方案(2025年5月)
Core Viewpoint - The report aims to capture global multi-asset investment opportunities based on market conditions and design corresponding investment strategies, including equity and bond target allocation, low-volatility fixed income combinations, and global asset allocation strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The equity-bond target allocation strategy utilizes a risk budget design method to construct a portfolio that achieves the desired allocation level while providing a better long-term risk-return profile compared to fixed allocation portfolios [2]. - The low-volatility "fixed income +" strategy constructs a portfolio with a target allocation of equity: gold: bonds = 1:1:4, achieving an annualized return of 6.91% and a maximum drawdown of -4.92% over the backtest period from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2025 [2]. - The global asset allocation strategy I, which includes A-shares, bonds, gold, and US stocks, achieved an annualized return of 11.22% with a maximum drawdown of -7.97% over the backtest period from January 2, 2014, to April 30, 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Recommendations - As of May 2025, the report suggests a cautious approach to A-shares due to ongoing tariff impacts, recommending a "barbell strategy" focusing on stable cash flow assets and technology + domestic demand as key themes [5]. - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from a broad interest rate decline due to the central bank's monetary policy easing, with a focus on short-term securities and potential adjustments in long-term bonds [5]. - For US stocks, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies remains, with short-term fluctuations expected as the market reacts to tariff impacts on the US economy [5]. - Japanese stocks may present short-term opportunities due to easing tariffs and improving economic conditions [5]. - Indian stocks are anticipated to experience upward movement due to economic resilience and foreign capital inflows [5][6].