1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of US soybeans rose significantly this week driven by crude oil. The price increase order is US soybean oil futures > US soybean futures > US inland soybean spot > US soybean meal > Brazilian port spot and US port spot > Brazilian inland spot > Argentine May FOB price. The main drivers of this price increase are the sharp rise in crude oil prices leading to increased shipping costs and optimistic expectations for biodiesel consumption. The supply pressure will gradually emerge in the medium term, and the price range of 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel may face significant pressure [1]. - South America has a bumper harvest, so there is no basis for a bull market. However, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside space. Overall, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with a price range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Overall View and Bull - Bear Logic of US Soybeans - **Overall View**: South America has a bumper harvest, no basis for a bull market; demand is expected to improve, limited downside space, overall volatile and slightly bullish, with a price range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. - **Bearish Logic**: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration's support for biodiesel addition policies may weaken; Brazil's harvest is accelerating, continuing the pattern of a good harvest; Argentina is expected to receive precipitation after a short - term drought, with little impact on the final yield [6]. - **Bullish Logic**: After China purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans, it adds an additional 8 million tons of soybeans for this crop year; Argentina experienced early - stage drought, and the yield may be revised down; the sharp rise in global crude oil prices may lead to inflation [8]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market Prices - As of March 6, 2026, the price of the US soybean futures continuous contract rose 43.5 cents per bushel to 1200.75 cents per bushel; the US soybean meal futures continuous contract rose $1.7 per short ton to $317.2 per short ton; the US soybean oil futures continuous contract rose 5.29 cents per pound to 66.58 cents per pound [8]. - As of March 5, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois rose 17 cents per bushel to 1176.75 cents per bushel compared to the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port rose 4.5 cents per bushel to 1268.25 cents per bushel compared to the previous week [8]. - As of March 6, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose 0.8 reais per bag to 102.43 reais per bag compared to the previous week; the spot price at the Paranagua port rose 2.71 reais per bag to 129.54 reais per bag compared to the previous week [9]. - As of March 4, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for the May shipment decreased by $2 per ton to $416 per ton; the price for the June shipment remained flat at $423 per ton [9]. 3.3. Weather Conditions in Main Producing Areas - According to the weather forecast released on March 7, 2026, in the next week, precipitation in Brazil will be mainly concentrated in the central and northern regions, with less precipitation in the southern and eastern regions. In the next two weeks, the cumulative precipitation in the central region will be higher than the normal level, while that in the southern and northern regions will be lower. In specific main - producing states, Mato Grosso will have slightly more than normal precipitation; South Mato Grosso will have more than normal precipitation in the next week; Paraná will have less rain in the next two weeks, which is conducive to the harvest; Rio Grande do Sul will have light rain in the next week and less rain in the second week, which is not conducive to crop yield [12]. - In the next week, Argentina will have less precipitation, concentrated in the central and northern producing areas. In the next two weeks, Buenos Aires will have little precipitation, and Córdoba will have light rain in the next week and dry conditions in the second week [12]. 3.4. US Soybean Demand - According to USDA data, as of the week ending February 27, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.119 million tons, compared with 0.8114 million tons in the previous week; the net sales for this crop year were 383,400 tons, compared with 407,000 tons in the previous week; the net sales for the next crop year were 0 tons, the same as in the previous week; the shipment volume to China was 734,600 tons, compared with 344,800 tons in the previous week [31]. 3.5. CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - According to CFTC data, as of March 3, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 214,100 lots, an increase of 9,300 lots compared to the previous week; the net long positions of funds in soybean oil futures and options were 65,900 lots, an increase of 8,800 lots compared to the previous week; the net short positions of funds in soybean meal futures and options were 62,000 lots, an increase of 30,000 lots compared to the previous week. From the perspective of fund positions, the operation idea for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal is to continue to increase long positions [38]. - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US remains high, while the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared to the previous year. The US planting cost is expected to be 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel, and the Brazilian cost is expected to be 950 - 1000 cents per bushel [39].