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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20251016
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Polyolefin futures fluctuated at a low level and closed in the red, with a slight decline during the night session. In the spot market, Sinopec lowered the price of linear LL by 100 in some cases, while PetroChina kept it stable. For drawn PP, Sinopec and PetroChina both lowered the price by 50 in some cases. From a fundamental perspective, the medium - term market should pay more attention to the realization of actual demand and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. Currently, due to the continued China - US game, crude oil is under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline rate may slow down [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - Previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6910, 6945, and 6997 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 4, and 0, and percentage changes of - 0.12%, - 0.06%, and 0.00% compared to the prices two days ago. Volumes were 205449, 17406, and 257, and open interests were 568826, 60269, and 618, with changes of - 8271, 1224, and 72 respectively. Spreads such as January - May, May - September, and September - January had present values of - 35, - 52, and 87, compared to previous values of - 31, - 48, and 79 [2] PP Futures - Previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6595, 6648, and 6672 respectively, with changes of - 7, - 3, and - 8, and percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 0.05%, and - 0.12% compared to the prices two days ago. Volumes were 270926, 28348, and 476, and open interests were 667779, 113474, and 3657, with changes of 2325, 2983, and 128 respectively. Spreads such as January - May, May - September, and September - January had present values of - 53, - 24, and 77, compared to previous values of - 49, - 29, and 78 [2] Spot Market Upstream and Downstream - For raw materials, the current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2300 yuan/ton, 6260 yuan/ton, 531 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2278 yuan/ton, 6280 yuan/ton, 524 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6520 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] Mid - stream - For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7500, 6900 - 7150, and 7150 - 7600 respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6950 - 7550, 6950 - 7250, and 7150 - 7600. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6500 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 [2] Information on Crude Oil - On Wednesday (October 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.27 per barrel, down $0.43 or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.2 - $59.42. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.91 per barrel, down $0.48 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.79 - $63.04 [2]