商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

| CTERRE | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 日度黄峪参考 发布日期:2025/ | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 当前市场流动性仍然充裕,A股目成交额突破至2万亿以上,沪指 | | | 股指 | | 突破"924"前高，内外利好因素下市场情绪尚好, 股指或继续偏 强运行。 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 空间。 201 | | | 真金 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,金价短期料偏强运行。 | | | 白银 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,支撑贵金属,银价短期 或偏强运行。 | | | 국미 | 看多 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振美联储降息预期,短期铜价偏强运行 | | | GD | | 美联储降息预期提升,但消费淡季下,国内铝下游需求承压,铝 价震荡运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝产量及库存双增,基本面偏弱施压价格,但几内亚正值雨 | | | 国化品 | | 季,铝土 ...

2025/8/27 10:19 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA⻢棕8⽉前25⽇产量减少1.21% Anec预计巴西8⽉⼤⾖出⼝890万吨 20250827 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕8月前25日产量减少1.21% Anec预计巴西8月大豆出口890万吨 20250827 国富研究 国富研究 2025年08月27日 07:38 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油11(BMD) | 4451.00 | -0. 51 | -0. 43 | | 布伦特11(ICE) | 66. 69 | -2. 21 | -0.94 | | 美原油10(NYMEX) | 63. 31 | -2. 21 | -0. 89 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1049.00 | 0.12 | 0. 02 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 293. 10 | 0. 86 | -0. 31 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 53. 46 | -2.52 | 0. 19 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌 ...

8月26日，豆粕期货主力合约低开低走，日内跌幅近1%。 【消息面汇总】 据监测，8月22日，全国主要油厂进口大豆库存755万吨，周环比上升4万吨，月环比上升42万吨，同比 减少24万吨，较过去三年均值上升114万吨；豆粕库存104万吨，周环比增加3万吨，月环比下降1万吨， 同比下降49万吨，较过去三年同期均值增加9万吨。 8月25日：全国主要油厂豆粕成交总量12.19万吨，较前一交易日减少1.75万吨，其中现货成交11.63万 吨。 2025年8月第4周，共计16个工作日，巴西累计装出豆粕152.03万吨，去年8月为213.27万吨。日均装运量 为9.5万吨/日，较去年8月的9.69万吨/日减少1.99%。 机构观点 交子期货：种植面积缩减使得美豆1000美分支撑强化。美豆均线系统多头排列，但主力11月合约短期 1060一线存在压力。市场关注中美贸易谈判进展及中储粮在四季度进行进口大豆轮换的计划，坊间传闻 将有上百万吨级别的抛储。豆粕01合约上方压力为10日均线，下方支撑为20日均线，远期03合约05合约 盘面估值相对偏低，逢低轻多，注意节奏。 铜冠金源期货：美豆优良率为69%，高于市场预期，天气方面来看，美 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal market still exists, but the domestic soybean meal market has shown a certain rebound, and the rapeseed meal market has started to stabilize. The price center of the soybean system is expected to move downward, and the soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to oscillate at a low level [4][5][8] - In the medium - term market, the positives for rapeseed meal will be relatively obvious. The soybean meal monthly spread still has downward pressure, while the rapeseed meal monthly spread may be strong, especially for the far - month spreads [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - US soybean futures oscillated. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded, and the rapeseed meal futures began to stabilize. The soybean meal monthly spread continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread oscillated [4] - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 in different regions had different changes; for rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 in different regions also had corresponding changes. The spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, and spot spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed different trends [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US old - crop soybean balance sheet is bullish, with exports basically completed and crush adjusted upward, resulting in a decrease in ending stocks. New - crop soybean supply is tightened due to a large reduction in planting area despite an increase in yield per unit. New - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the bullishness of the new - crop stock - to - use ratio is limited [5] - South American old - crop soybeans are in a supply - demand loosening situation. The production and crush of major exporting countries are expected to increase, and the ending stocks or exports may rise. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about future exports [5] - The global soybean meal supply pressure is obvious, with an expected increase in soybean crush in major producing areas and a slight increase in imports in major importing countries [5] - The domestic soybean and rapeseed meal spot market is loose. The oil mill operating rate is high, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory is at a high level. The market trading volume has increased, mainly in basis trading [7] - As of August 22, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, the operating rate was 63.81%, the soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 0.31% from last week and a decrease of 5.46% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 3.8% from last week and a decrease of 29.71% year - on - year [7] - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, the rapeseed supply is relatively low, and the supply pressure still exists. As of August 22, the rapeseed crush of coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, the operating rate was 12.79%, the rapeseed inventory was 153,000 tons, an increase from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a decrease from last week [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty, but macro - level disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. In the short term, the price of Chinese soybeans is not likely to drop significantly due to high demand for US soybeans [8] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean meal 05 contract [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread [9] - Options: Buy call options (for reference only) [9] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data for Brazilian soybeans of different shipment periods, including CNF, CBOT contracts, exchange rates, soybean meal prices, soybean oil prices, and changes in pressing profits [9]

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-08-25 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：需求好转叠加供应收紧，上行动 力仍存 豆粕：贸易改善预期下，价格承压下行 目 录 01 豆粕：贸易改善预期下，价格承压下行 01 豆粕：贸易改善预期下，价格承压下行 ◆ 周度行情回顾：截止8月22日，华东现货报价3020元/吨，周度报价下跌20元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3088元/吨，周度下跌49元/吨； 基差报价01-100元/吨，周度报价上涨30元/吨。周度美豆低位抬升，中国预计采买美豆刺激下，价格低位反弹至1060美分/蒲附近； 国内豆粕走势倒挂，抛储及美豆采买打压盘面表现，M2601合约一度下跌至3080元/吨。现货价格跟随盘面偏弱，但基差走强，价格 强于盘面表现。 2500 3500 4500 5500 6500 2022-08-24 2022-10-08 2022-11-14 2022-12-21 2023-02-02 2023-03-13 2023-0 ...

豆粕周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 政策消息扰动市场 连粕震荡回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约涨15.5收于1058.25美分/蒲式耳， 涨幅1.49%；豆粕01合约跌49收于3088元/吨，跌幅1.56%； 华南豆粕现货跌30收于2950元/吨，跌幅1.01%；菜粕01合 约跌3收于2543元/吨，跌幅0.12%；广西菜粕现货涨20收于 255 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

Group 1 - The current price of soybean meal is critical as it approaches the key level of 3000 yuan/ton, raising questions about its stability [2] - There is a divergence between spot and futures markets, with spot prices remaining stable while futures have retreated [2][3] - The retreat in futures prices indicates a change in market expectations for future conditions, influenced by factors such as the return of U.S. soybeans to the Chinese market [3][9] Group 2 - Recent developments suggest urgency from the U.S. side regarding soybean exports to China, highlighted by Trump's social media post and the U.S. Soybean Association's call for action [6][8] - The expectation of a high yield for U.S. soybeans adds pressure for them to re-enter the Chinese market, which could alleviate supply tightness in the fourth quarter [9] - There are rumors of a potential government release of 3 million tons of soybeans, which, regardless of its truth, contributes to market sentiment affecting soybean meal prices [9][11] Group 3 - Despite the recent retreat in prices, the decline is expected to be limited due to cost support and seasonal demand increases in the fourth quarter [11] - The overall trend for soybean meal is anticipated to be a slow upward movement, with a higher likelihood of price increases compared to declines [11]