Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President has signaled a cease - fire, and there are signs that the Iranian leadership may be open to ending the war through negotiation. Crude oil prices have fallen, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased significantly. Domestically, China's PMI improved significantly in March, the economy exceeded expectations, exports were much better than expected, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The short - term domestic economic situation is better than expected, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. [2][3] - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term; government bonds will be in a short - term shock; in the commodity sector, black metals may weaken in the short term, non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, energy and chemical products may be strong in the short term, and precious metals may rebound in the short term. [2] Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's cease - fire signal and Iran's potential for negotiation led to a drop in crude oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, and a significant increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy and inflation in March were better than expected. The government work report set 2026 development targets and policies. The short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. [2][3] - Asset operation suggestions: short - term cautious observation for stock indices and government bonds; short - term cautious observation for black metals; short - term cautious observation for non - ferrous metals; short - term cautious long for energy and chemical products; short - term cautious long for precious metals. [2] Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as oil and gas, coal, and energy metals, the domestic stock market declined. However, the economic fundamentals in March were better than expected, and the short - term domestic economic situation is good, and the overseas market is warming up, so the domestic stock index market is expected to improve. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Tuesday night. With the hope of an end to the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fell, and spot gold and silver rebounded. Precious metals are in a state of significant short - term shock and short - term rebound. Short - term cautious long is recommended. [3] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined on Tuesday, and the market volume was low. The steel market follows energy prices, and the decline in coking coal prices has led to further weakness. The real - world demand has improved slightly, but the apparent consumption of the five major steel products still shows a downward trend year - on - year. The steel production of the five major varieties decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron production increased slightly. There is a risk of a phased correction in April. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Tuesday. The previous price increase was supported by energy prices and price negotiation news. The demand for iron ore remains resilient as molten iron production has increased, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is around 43%. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 6.71 million tons this week, while the arrival volume increased by 2.113 million tons. The problem of supply - demand mismatch is gradually being resolved. The room for further price increases is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the weakening of energy prices. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Tuesday, while the decline in the futures prices widened. The prices follow energy prices. The cost increase has led to some factory production cuts. The inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese is at a low level, and the overall production cost is supported. The futures prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - shock mindset. [6] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventories. After the replenishment, the inventory decline rate is expected to slow down. The copper market supply is loose, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts the inventory decline. The current inventory is still at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, but the probability of extreme shortage is low. [7] - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly. The domestic aluminum supply remains high. [7] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically the same as last week, at 214,000 tons, and is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in the southern region have rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting production remains at a relatively high level, and overseas smelting production will recover in 2026. The demand is not optimistic. [8][9] - **Lead**: The decline in domestic lead ingot inventory has stopped, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and the demand is in the off - season. The import volume of refined and crude lead has increased significantly. [9] - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy is changeable. The core contradiction lies in the mining end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and there are risks in MHP supply. Nickel prices have support at the bottom, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad. [10] - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar has increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand in the semiconductor industry is good, but other industries are not performing well, and the overall demand is not good. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, and the LME inventory has decreased. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell significantly on Tuesday. The decline is mainly due to the rumored news of the opening of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, with both supply and demand booming, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Tuesday. The supply and demand are weak, the production capacity is excessive, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is recommended to operate within an interval, paying attention to the cost support at the bottom. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell on Tuesday. The price has returned to the cost - based pricing, and the inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Iran and the US have signaled a willingness to resolve the conflict, leading to a narrowing of the risk premium and a decline in oil prices. However, the market is still worried about the impact on the global energy system. The average gasoline price in the US has exceeded $4 per gallon, posing a political risk to the Trump administration. Oil prices will remain at a high - central and high - volatility level in the short term. [14] - **Asphalt**: As oil prices decline, asphalt is likely to follow. There are short - term supply problems, and seasonal demand will increase, driving inventory depletion. The short - term inventory accumulation pressure is limited, and the new contract price is expected to rise significantly after April, supporting the market bottom. The absolute price will continue to fluctuate significantly with crude oil. [14] - **PX**: The shortage of naphtha continues, and overseas PX prices remain strong. With the increase in domestic PX plant maintenance plans, the PX price is expected to remain strong, but the upside may be limited by the increase in PTA plant maintenance plans. [15] - **PTA**: In the peak season, terminal orders and开工 are lower than in previous years, and the negative feedback continues. The PTA cost is still supported, but the downstream filament production reduction has increased. The PTA basis has rebounded slightly, and the negative feedback restricts the price increase. PTA is likely to continue to fluctuate strongly. [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Driven by export expectations, ethylene glycol prices rose, but after the decline in oil prices, inventory pressure was reflected in the futures price. Overseas supply is expected to decrease significantly, and the price will remain high - volatile. Attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback. [15] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the high - volatility of crude oil prices and negative feedback in the polyester sector, short - fiber prices will continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, following PTA and other varieties. [16][17] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is strong, and the port basis is strengthening. Affected by the news of the US - Iran peace talks, the energy and chemical futures market has declined. However, due to the obstruction of Iranian exports and unstable Middle East plants, the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The domestic demand is warming up in the peak season, and the spot is in short supply. The market is strong, but the volatility has increased significantly. [17] - **PP**: The market price has declined. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the downstream demand is increasing, providing support for the price. The market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to the situation of the cease - fire talks. [18] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has adjusted. The upstream supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory is depleting rapidly. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but there is inventory pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are the key variables for external supply. [18] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. Affected by external positive factors, the futures market has strengthened, boosting the spot market sentiment. However, the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is still in place, and the industrial demand is supporting the market. The export is tightening, and the price will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT July soybean contract closed higher. The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in 2026 is 84.7 million acres, lower than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory report shows that the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is 2.104803 billion bushels, higher than the analyst's estimate. [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans for domestic oil mills in April are balanced, and the inventory is loose. The basis is under seasonal pressure. The far - month oil mill crushing profit supports more purchases of soybeans, and the future supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. For rapeseed meal, as the import of rapeseed increases in the far - month, the supply concern fades, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal widens. It will follow the soybean meal's shock adjustment. [20] - **Oils**: The overnight BMD palm oil closed higher. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy has boosted market sentiment. The decline in crude oil prices due to the US - Iran cease - fire intention has put pressure on the vegetable oil premium. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil spot basis is stable, and the demand is weak. Palm oil exports from Malaysia are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease significantly. Palm oil will maintain a high - level shock. [21] - **Corn**: The national corn price is slightly weak. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, but the market atmosphere is not high. Traders are more willing to sell, and the inventory of downstream deep - processing enterprises is accumulating. The feed enterprises are using more imported and policy - auctioned grains, and the acceptance of high - price corn is decreasing. The unconfirmed news of brown rice auction in early April may limit the corn price. [21] - **Pigs**: The average weight of pigs is increasing, and small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, while large - scale farms are increasing the supply with a slight weight reduction. The short - term breeding profit is in a loss, and the policy is guiding weight reduction and production reduction. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - month contract, while the long - term contract has stronger support. [22]

1. Overall Situation - The soybean futures and spot prices have fluctuated recently. The main contract of Dou - Yi 2605 has stopped falling in a volatile adjustment, and the spot price has dropped from 4,840 yuan/ton to around 4,700 yuan/ton in Fujin. The main contract of soybean meal 2605 has continued to decline, and the spot price has dropped from 3,300 yuan/ton to around 3,150 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang [3]. 2. Domestic Soybean Sales and Auction - Domestic soybean sales are sluggish, and the sales progress is slow. As of March 27, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang was 30% (unchanged from the previous week), 35% in Anhui (down 1% from the previous week), 39% in Henan (down 1% from the previous week), and 40% in Shandong (down 1% from the previous week). The remaining grain is much higher than the same period last year. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned again at the end of March, with over 200,000 tons auctioned and a low transaction rate [3]. 3. Soybean Import and Arrival - With the listing of South American soybeans, the domestic market may shift to concentrated imports of Brazilian soybeans. As of March 27, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 1.586 million tons, a week - on - week increase, and the port soybean inventory was 4.828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease [3]. 4. U.S. Soybean Situation - U.S. soybeans have been in a volatile consolidation recently. The negotiation between the U.S. and Iran may take place, but the result is unknown, and the crude oil price is still strong. The upcoming U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) planting report is worthy of attention. The planting area of new - season U.S. soybeans may increase, and the previous USDA Outlook Forum predicted it to be 85 million acres (a 4.7% year - on - year increase) [4]. 5. Oil Mill Operations and Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, and the soybean meal inventory has increased. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market is good. As of March 27, the operating rate of oil mills was 50.53%, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 4.8202 million tons, a week - on - week decrease; the soybean meal output was 1.449 million tons; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 676,800 tons, a slight week - on - week increase; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 2.718 million tons, a week - on - week decrease. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 9.35 days, a week - on - week increase, indicating strong downstream demand [4]. 6. Feed Demand and Livestock Farming - Feed demand is strong in the short term, but long - term capacity reduction is unfavorable. In the pig - farming industry, pig prices have fallen to extremely low levels, and farming is seriously loss - making. As of March 27, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 189.87 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 344.24 yuan per head. In the poultry industry, egg prices have rebounded, but farming still incurs losses. In February, the sales volume of chicken chicks increased, and the culling of old chickens decreased. The industry still has the sentiment of replenishing inventory, and the inventory of laying hens in February increased month - on - month. The high inventory of livestock and poultry currently supports feed demand, but the increasing losses may accelerate capacity reduction, which is unfavorable for the long - term growth of feed demand [5]. 7. Market Outlook - Due to the sluggish sales of domestic soybeans and the resumption of state - reserve auctions, and the increase in imports of non - genetically modified soybeans, it is expected that Dou - Yi will enter a high - level volatile state. With the increase in domestic soybean arrivals, attention should be paid to the import of Brazilian soybeans from South America. The operating rate of oil mills has declined, the soybean meal inventory has increased, and the demand is strong. It is expected that soybean meal will return to a fundamental volatile trend [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, with Trump threatening to destroy Iranian energy facilities and Iran planning to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar index, and higher US Treasury yields, which initially dampened global risk appetite but later recovered after Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals. Domestically, the economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is mainly focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the domestic stock index market is oscillating weakly in the short term [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are oscillating weakly in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Global situation**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, oil prices are increasing, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields are strengthening, initially suppressing global risk appetite. After Powell's dovish signals, the US Treasury sell - off eased, yields declined, and risk appetite recovered [2]. - **Domestic situation**: In January - February 2026, the economy and inflation exceeded expectations, with strong exports and rising inflation. The policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The stock index market is oscillating weakly due to concerns about the Middle East situation [2][3]. - **Asset trends**: Stocks are oscillating weakly and volatile in the short term; bonds are oscillating; black metals are oscillating weakly; non - ferrous metals are oscillating weakly; energy and chemicals are oscillating strongly; precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market rebounded due to the performance of precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural products. The economy and inflation in January - February 2026 exceeded expectations, but the policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market is focused on Middle East geopolitical risks, and the stock index market is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Monday night. With rising oil prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury yields, spot gold was under pressure. It first reached the $4580 mark and then fell back, with a final increase of 0.35% to $4510.97 per ounce. Spot silver also rose and then fell, closing up 0.48% at $70.047 per ounce. Precious metals are rebounding with large oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. Due to the Middle East conflict, inflation concerns increased. The real - world demand improved marginally, with the apparent consumption of five major steel products increasing by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and inventory decline accelerating. Supply decreased slightly, and iron - water production increased slightly. The steel market will follow cost trends in the short term [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot and futures markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Rising oil prices supported the iron ore price. Iron - water production increased to over 230 tons, and the proportion of profitable steel mills was around 43%, indicating strong demand. Global iron ore shipments decreased by 6.71 million tons week - on - week, while arrivals increased by 2.113 million tons. The price increase space is limited, and there is a risk of adjustment if energy prices weaken [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded. Rising energy prices supported the alloy prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6220 - 6320 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6300 - 6350 yuan/ton. Rising costs led some factories to reduce production. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is at a low level, and the production cost is supported. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be oscillating strongly [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices, leading to a large decrease in social inventory. However, the inventory reduction may slow down after the replenishment. The copper market supply is abundant, and the terminal demand recovery in the peak season is not optimistic, which restricts inventory reduction. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, with a tight but not extremely short supply [8]. - **Aluminum**: An attack on the UAE's global aluminum company may affect electrolytic aluminum production in the short term, supporting aluminum prices. However, the company plans to resume operations soon. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is high, and the reduction is slow due to high supply [8]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory is basically stable, at 21.4 million tons, slightly lower than in 2022. The zinc ore processing fee in the south has rebounded, and the import ore TC has decreased. The domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and the production is at a relatively high level. The demand is not optimistic [9][10]. - **Lead**: The domestic lead ingot inventory increased from 57,600 tons to 60,100 tons, and the LME inventory is stable. The production of primary and secondary lead is increasing seasonally. The demand peak has passed, and the import volume in the first two months increased significantly [10]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy on nickel is uncertain. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and MHP supply may decline. Nickel prices have support at the bottom but limited upside due to high inventory [11]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diverse. The demand is mixed, with semiconductor sales growing but other industries performing poorly. Tin prices rebounded due to increased risk appetite and inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the volatile market sentiment [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose 4.53% on Monday. The supply and demand are both strong, the social inventory is low, and the smelting plant inventory is continuously low. With low inventory and supply disruptions, the upward potential is large. It is recommended to buy at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell 2.01% on Monday. The supply and demand are weak, the capacity is surplus, and the inventory is high. It is priced close to cost and follows the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to operate within a range [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose 3.45% on Monday. The price is at the full - cost range, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US threat to Iran led to the US oil price reaching over $100 for the first time after the war. The conflict is unlikely to end soon, and the short - term oil price will continue to be strong [15]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price rebounded with the rising oil price. The supply problem persists, and the seasonal demand will increase, leading to inventory reduction. The short - term price will follow the oil price, and attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [15]. - **PX**: The PX price is strong due to the reduction of Japanese and Korean device operations and increased domestic maintenance plans. However, the price increase may be limited by the increased PTA maintenance plans [16]. - **PTA**: The terminal production and sales are low, but PTA prices rose with the decline of the reforming device. The negative feedback from the downstream restricts the price increase, but the overall trend is still upward [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease due to raw material problems. The price is rising, but attention should be paid to the terminal negative feedback [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price is oscillating strongly, following the PTA and other varieties. The raw material price is high, but the recovery is restricted by the downstream production reduction [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The domestic and port methanol markets are strong. International supply has tightened due to device shutdowns, and the port inventory is decreasing. The price is rising but with increased volatility. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and downstream negative feedback [18]. - **PP**: The PP market price has increased due to supply reduction and demand increase. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE market price is adjusting. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, leading to inventory reduction. The price is expected to be strong, but there is pressure in some areas. Geopolitical factors are important [19]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The policy and demand are in a game, and the price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and attention should be paid to the planting intention report and quarterly grain inventory report. Analysts expect the 2026 sowing area to increase [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans decreased seasonally, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal decreased. The basis is high, and the short - term supply is tight, but the future supply is expected to be loose. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and it will oscillate with soybean meal [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The CBOT soybean oil price rose. The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the oil price is affected by the rising crude oil price. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased, and the rapeseed oil inventory increased [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The BMD palm oil price rose. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy boosted the market. The Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in March, and the export increased significantly. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased [23]. - **Corn**: The corn price shows regional differentiation. The inventory in the northern ports increased, and the price in the northeast is weak. The downstream demand is affected by alternative sources, and the price may be restricted by the possible rice auction [23]. - **Pigs**: The pig weight is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term profit is in deficit, and the policy encourages production reduction. The short - term spot price may weaken, while the long - term outlook is improving. There is risk in the short - term futures market [24].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market is worried about the escalation of the tense situation between the US and Iran, leading to a continued decline in global risk appetite. In the short term, the domestic stock index oscillates weakly with increased volatility, and the domestic stock index market cools down again. - The overall economic and inflation situation in China from January to February is better than expected, but the overall goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than those in 2025. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks oscillate weakly in the short term; bonds oscillate in the short term; black commodities oscillate weakly; non - ferrous metals oscillate weakly; energy and chemical products oscillate strongly; precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: Iran claims to have closed the Strait of Hormuz, and other energy supply interruption news has hit risk sentiment. International oil prices have risen unilaterally, and the US dollar index and US bond yields have increased. - Domestic: The Chinese economy rebounded unexpectedly from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation is better than expected. The government work report sets the main expected development goals and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with overall goals and policy intensity lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stocks oscillate weakly and with increased volatility in the short term; bonds oscillate in the short term; black commodities oscillate weakly; non - ferrous metals oscillate weakly; energy and chemical products oscillate strongly; precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as energy metals, biomedicine, and small metals, the domestic stock market rebounded. - The economic and inflation situation from January to February is better than expected, but the overall goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. - The market trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index oscillates weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Friday night. The Shanghai gold main contract closed at 1009.44 yuan/gram, up 1.73%; the Shanghai silver main contract closed at 17763 yuan/kg, up 3.12%. - Spot gold rose significantly in the US session, breaking through the $4550 mark, and finally closed up 2.58% at $4492.99/ounce; spot silver closed up 2.55% at $69.78/ounce. - Precious metals oscillate significantly and rebound in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously in the short term [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continued to oscillate on Friday, and the trading volume was low. The escalation of the Middle - East situation over the weekend may further increase steel costs. The real demand has improved marginally, and the inventory decline has continued to expand. The apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased slightly this week, but the hot - metal output has increased slightly. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore dropped significantly on Friday, and the futures price oscillated at a high level, mainly affected by rumors of iron - ore negotiation setbacks. The demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the supply and demand misalignment problem is gradually being alleviated. The room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the risk of phased adjustment after the energy price weakens [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, and the futures trends were divergent, with silicon manganese showing a stronger trend. The rebound in oil prices supports the alloy prices. The silicon - manganese market has stable supply, and the profit margin is acceptable. The silicon - iron market is waiting for the entry situation in April. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with an oscillating - strong mindset [8]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper price dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises replenished their inventories at low prices, resulting in a significant decrease in social copper inventories. The supply of the copper market remains loose, and the downstream terminal demand is affected by the overdraft effect of last year. The core contradiction lies in the mining end, and the probability of extreme shortage is not high [9]. - **Aluminum**: The attack on the UAE Global Aluminum Company may affect electrolytic - aluminum production in the short term, providing some support for the aluminum price. The domestic aluminum - ingot social inventory is at a high level and is being depleted slowly due to high domestic supply [9]. - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc - ingot inventory continued to decline last week but is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc - ore processing fees in the south have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The overseas smelting output will increase in 2026. The demand is not optimistic [10][11]. - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead in the first two months increased significantly. The domestic production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level [11]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy is unstable. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is limited by high inventories at home and abroad [12]. - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar have increased significantly, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is mixed, with the semiconductor industry performing well but other industries underperforming. The tin price has rebounded due to the return of risk appetite and inventory depletion. Attention should be paid to the emotional fluctuations caused by the repeated Middle - East situation [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory of smelters remains low. There is still no progress in the negotiation of the Zimbabwean export ban, and the lithium carbonate price has a large upward potential. It is recommended to lay out at low prices or hold long positions cautiously [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has decreased slightly, and the social inventory is at a high level and stable. The supply and demand are weak, and the production capacity is in surplus. The price is close to the cost, and it is expected to oscillate strongly due to the increase in coking - coal prices [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have continued to decline, and the inventory has increased slightly. The medium - and long - term policy is negative for the market, and the price is close to the full - cost range. Attention should be paid to the inventory depletion situation after April. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or take partial profits [16]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US preparation for landing operations has kept the market's expectation of the Strait's safety low. The attack on the Russian terminal has restricted oil exports, and the oil price has exceeded $100. The oil price will remain strong in the short term [17]. - **Asphalt**: The oil - price support continues, the refinery production schedule in April is expected to decline significantly, and the seasonal demand will increase. The total inventory will be depleted, and the short - term price will follow the oil price and fluctuate significantly [17]. - **PX**: The price of naphtha is strong, and the PX price has rebounded. The PX will remain strong in the short term due to the decrease in upstream reforming operations and the increase in overseas demand for aromatic materials [17]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has increased following the decline of the reforming device, but the increase is limited by the negative feedback from the downstream. The core logic lies in the aromatic raw materials, and the PTA is likely to be strong [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overseas supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease significantly, and the price has remained strong. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the terminal [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The increase in the oil price has driven the polyester sector to strengthen. The finished - product inventory is low, and the production and sales have declined. The short - fiber will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term [19]. - **Methanol**: The import reduction due to the geopolitical conflict has led to a reduction in port inventory and an increase in inland demand. The methanol market has support, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback [19]. - **PP**: The upstream supply has decreased, and the downstream demand has increased. The spot market is tight, and the price is expected to remain strong. The key variable is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [19]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream supply has continued to decrease, and the demand has been supported by the traditional peak season. The inventory has been depleted rapidly, and the polyethylene is expected to continue to operate strongly. Geopolitical factors are the key variables [19]. - **Urea**: The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continues to put pressure on the market, but the industrial demand provides support. The price will oscillate narrowly in the short term [20]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US biodiesel policy has been finalized, and the policy benefits are exhausted. The uncertainty of Sino - US soybean trade has increased. The increase in the CBOT soybean price is limited by profit - taking [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills has decreased seasonally, and the inventory has been depleted rapidly. The basis remains high. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate with the soybean meal [21]. - **Oils and Fats**: The crude - oil price is the main driving factor for international oils and fats. The vegetable - oil price has the potential to rise, but it is restricted by recession expectations and the expected high - yield. The domestic soybean - oil inventory is being depleted, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may rebound. The supply of rapeseed oil may increase, and it will fluctuate with soybean oil and palm oil [22]. - **Corn**: The bargaining power of the trading end has increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact on the corn price [23]. - **Hogs**: The weight of hogs in stock is increasing, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The short - term spot price may continue to weaken, but the long - term expectation is improving. The futures market has risks in the near - term contracts and support in the far - term contracts [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is expected to be generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated sideways, with a weekly decline of 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel. US soybean oil prices rose, while US soybean meal prices fell [1]. - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 67.7%, slower than 76.1% in the same period last year but slightly faster than the five - year average. Future weather in Brazil and Argentina is generally favorable for soybean growth and harvest [2]. 3.2 Market Concerns - The situation of mutual visits between Chinese and US leaders: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, but if the Middle East situation eases, another visit is expected [3]. - The transmission of rising crude oil prices to planting: It will directly increase the costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. If all prices increase by 30%, the cost of US soybeans will increase by about 70 cents, and that of Brazilian soybeans will increase by 102 cents. Higher fertilizer prices may also prompt some farmers to switch from corn to soybeans [3]. - The release rhythm of South American supply pressure: As the harvest in Brazil accelerates and precipitation in Argentina improves, the supply pressure of spot soybeans will increase [3]. 3.3 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - **Overall view**: There is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. - **Short - side logic**: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel addition policy may weaken; the harvest progress in Brazil is accelerating, and the shipping speed has basically returned to normal, resulting in high global spot pressure; the weather in Argentina has improved, and the previously damaged yield per unit area is expected to recover [5]. - **Long - side logic**: If Trump visits China, China is expected to purchase an additional 8 million tons of soybeans in the current crop year; the US biodiesel policy is beneficial to soybean consumption; rising crude oil prices support costs [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Prices - As of March 27, 2026, the price of the continuous US soybean futures contract fell 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel; the continuous US soybean meal futures contract fell 12.7 dollars per short ton to 315.3 dollars per short ton; the continuous US soybean oil futures contract rose 1.9 cents per pound to 67.41 cents per pound [5]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois rose 3.25 cents per bushel to 1166.25 cents per bushel compared with the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port rose 8.75 cents per bushel to 1240.75 cents per bushel compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose 2.62 reais per bag to 103.37 reais per bag compared with the previous week; the spot price at the Paranagua port rose 0.63 reais per bag to 130.01 reais per bag compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 25, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for May shipment rose 6 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton; the price for June shipment rose 4 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton [6]. 3.5 Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - In Brazil, precipitation in the next week will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions, with slightly less precipitation in the central and southern regions. In the next two weeks, precipitation will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions. Overall, the precipitation in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean harvest and transportation [20]. - In Argentina, precipitation in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba regions in the next two weeks will be good for soybean growth, while precipitation in the central and northern regions will be slightly less. Overall, the weather for the final growth of soybeans is acceptable, and the average yield per unit area is expected to recover to some extent [20]. 3.6 US Soybean Demand - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.3442 million tons, compared with 0.9065 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the current crop year were 0.6689 million tons, compared with 0.2982 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 27,000 tons, compared with 6,600 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 0.6649 million tons, compared with 0.5458 million tons in the previous week. Of the 12 million tons of US soybeans purchased by China, 8.5241 million tons have been shipped, and 3.47 million tons remain unshipped [39]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume in the US in February was 208.78 million bushels, the highest level for the same period in history, indicating strong domestic demand [39]. 3.7 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - As of March 25, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 203,200 contracts, a decrease of 10,500 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 117,100 contracts, a decrease of 1,200 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 107,900 contracts, an increase of 24,000 contracts from the previous week [44]. - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US remains high, while the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared with the previous year. Before the rise in crude oil prices, the estimated planting cost in the US was 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel, and in Brazil, it was 950 - 1000 cents per bushel. If calculated based on the current energy cost, it is expected to increase by 5 - 10% on this basis [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there are doubts about the so - called US - Iran peace talks. The US is reported to be formulating a "fatal blow" military plan against Iran, and Iran believes the US negotiation stance is a "third deception" plan. Oil prices have risen again, the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations have resurfaced, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled significantly. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The short - term trading logic of the market focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the mixed geopolitical news in the Middle East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3][4] - For assets, the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; government bonds fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; in the commodity sector, black metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; non - ferrous metals fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously; energy and chemical products fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to go long cautiously; precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas, doubts about the US - Iran peace talks, rising oil prices, resurgent Fed interest - rate hike expectations, strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, the economy and inflation are better than expected in January - February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. [3] - Asset suggestions: short - term cautious wait - and - see for stock indices, government bonds, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals; short - term cautious long - position for energy and chemical products. [3] 3.2 Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as insurance, communication services, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market continued to decline significantly. The economy and inflation are better than expected from January to February, and the goals and policy intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. The short - term trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and the stock index fluctuates weakly and with increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously in the short term. [4] 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 980.08 yuan/gram, down 2.83%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 16841 yuan/kilogram, down 5.66%. Spot gold restarted its decline, and finally closed down 2.85% at 4377.95 US dollars/ounce; spot silver finally closed down 4.32% at 68.11 US dollars/ounce. Precious metals fluctuate significantly and weaken in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously. [5] 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly on Thursday, and the trading volume was low. The real demand improved marginally, the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 19.49 tons week - on - week, and the inventory decline continued to expand. The supply decreased slightly this week, but the molten iron output increased. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded significantly on Thursday, and the futures performance was relatively strong. There are rumors of setbacks in iron ore negotiations. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the supply has increased. It is expected that the room for further price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to the phased adjustment risk after the energy price weakens. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded on Thursday, and the futures continued to fluctuate. The alloy prices were supported by the rebound of crude oil prices. The operating rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the situation in April. It is advisable to treat the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a slightly bullish and fluctuating mindset. [8] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The copper spot TC is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. The by - product income makes up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is high. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, and the social inventory has decreased significantly. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, due to Iran's opposition to the US proposal, the risk appetite decreased, but the aluminum price was supported. The domestic primary aluminum production increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum import remains high, and the supply pressure still exists. [9] - **Zinc**: The domestic zinc ingot inventory continued to decline to 21.44 tons on Thursday, but it is still at a high level in recent years. The zinc ore processing fees in some regions have rebounded, and the domestic smelting output remains relatively high. The demand is not optimistic. [9][10] - **Lead**: The imports of refined lead and crude lead increased significantly from January to February. The production of primary lead and secondary lead increased seasonally. The demand is entering the off - season, and the social inventory of primary lead has decreased. The LME lead inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. [11] - **Nickel**: Indonesia may levy a windfall tax on nickel from April 1. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, and the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited due to high inventories at home and abroad. [12] - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar increased significantly in the first two months, and the import sources are more diversified. The demand is not good overall, but the social inventory has decreased due to downstream replenishment. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell 0.64% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and it is advisable to lay out positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.58% on Thursday. The supply and demand are both weak, the production capacity is surplus, and the inventory is at a high level. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within the range. [15] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell 2.78% on Thursday. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions cautiously or take profits in a timely manner. [15] 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US sent mixed signals, and the market is not sure if the US - Iran negotiation will end the Middle - East conflict quickly. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by 10 days. The short - term oil price will face a pattern of a slightly rising center and increased volatility. [16] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is affected by high prices. The supply is low, and the short - term absolute price will fluctuate significantly with the oil price. [16] - **PX**: The PX price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream start - up recovery is slow, and it is affected by negative feedback. It is likely to fluctuate in the short term. [17] - **PTA**: The PTA price follows the rising oil price, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, and the rebound space is limited. It will remain slightly bullish and fluctuating before the oil price rises significantly. [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounds slightly with the rising oil price. The port inventory reduction is limited, and the export expectation is increasing. The basis has strengthened slightly and is likely to fluctuate after a decline. [18] - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price remains slightly bullish and fluctuating with the rising oil price. The downstream production reduction suppresses the recovery space, but it can be supported by the cost in the later stage. [18] - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market is strong, and the port basis has strengthened. The inventory at the port and production enterprises has decreased. The supply has tightened, and the fundamentals have been repaired. The price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes caused by geopolitical relaxation and downstream negative feedback. [19] - **PP**: The price of PP is supported by the continuous inventory reduction. The market is expected to remain strong, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the main uncertainty. [20] - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price is firm. The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the inventory is being reduced rapidly. It is expected to continue to operate strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting the external supply. [21] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural and strong industrial", and the export policy window is closed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [22][23] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract on the CBOT market closed down 0.06% overnight. The US soybean export sales increased significantly in the week ending March 19. Attention should be paid to the revised biofuel blending target and the end - of - month planting area report on Friday. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and it fluctuates with the soybean meal. [24] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the supply is tight in the short term, supporting the basis. The supply pressure of rapeseed oil may increase, and it is under pressure along with soybean and palm oil. [25] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.35% overnight, supported by the strong Chicago soybean oil price, rising crude oil price, and strong export data. The domestic palm oil import is affected by the inverted profit, and the market transaction is light. [25] - **Corn**: The national corn price adjusts within a narrow range. The futures price fluctuates strongly, supporting the spot market. The sales of grassroots grain sources in the producing areas have slowed down, and the inventory at ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. However, the acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises is decreasing, and the possible rice auction in early April may have a negative impact. [26] - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is slightly improving but still in the off - season, and the breeding loss is increasing. The short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are risks in the futures market. [27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, with the continuation of the war and low traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have rebounded, the US dollar index remains strong, and US Treasury yields have slightly declined, leading to a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economy rebounded more than expected from January to February, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. The recent market trading logic has mainly focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, although the domestic economy is better than expected, the stock index will fluctuate weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. Currently, influenced by the US's signals of easing and a cease - fire, the domestic stock index market has recovered. [3][4] - For different asset classes, the stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations and increased volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully. Treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is also advisable to wait and see carefully. In the commodity sector, the black metals will rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; non - ferrous metals will rebound with short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully; energy and chemicals will fluctuate significantly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautious in going long; precious metals will fluctuate significantly and rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: With the continuation of the war and low traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have rebounded, the US dollar index remains strong, and US Treasury yields have slightly declined, leading to a cooling of global risk appetite. [3] - Domestic: From January to February, China's economy rebounded more than expected, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. [3][4] - Market: The recent market trading logic has mainly focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, although the domestic economy is better than expected, the stock index will fluctuate weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. Currently, influenced by the US's signals of easing and a cease - fire, the domestic stock index market has recovered. [3][4] - Asset Allocation: The stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations and increased volatility, and it is advisable to wait and see carefully. Treasury bonds will fluctuate in the short term, and it is also advisable to wait and see carefully. [3] Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as military equipment, electricity, and communications, the domestic stock market has continued to rebound significantly. [4] - Fundamentally, from January to February, China's economy rebounded more than expected, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report set the main development targets and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall targets and policy intensity lower than in 2025. [4] - The recent market trading logic has mainly focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short term, although the domestic economy is better than expected, the stock index will fluctuate weakly and with increased volatility due to the mixed geopolitical news. Currently, influenced by the US's signals of easing and a cease - fire, the domestic stock index market has recovered. It is advisable to wait and see carefully in the short term. [4] Precious Metals - On Wednesday night, the precious metals market rose overall. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 1016.92 yuan/gram, up 1.82%; the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 18000 yuan/kilogram, up 2.15%. [5] - As the market weighs the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the global market has fluctuated sharply, and the decline of the US dollar index has provided some support for precious metals. Spot gold has stabilized and rebounded, ending a nine - day losing streak, and finally closed up 1.54% at 4474.31 US dollars/ounce, but it is still suppressed by the strong US dollar and rising US Treasury yields; spot silver has turned from a decline to an increase, and finally closed up 2.8% at 71.05 US dollars/ounce. [5] - Precious metals will fluctuate significantly and rebound in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see carefully. [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets declined slightly, and market transactions were at a low level. Recently, the steel market has mainly followed the fluctuations of energy prices, and the decline in oil prices has led to the weakness of the steel market in the past two trading days. The fundamentals have changed little, the actual demand is still weak, and although the steel inventory has peaked and declined, the apparent consumption growth rate of the five major varieties has slowed down. After the important meeting, the output of the five major varieties of steel increased by 18.85 tons week - on - week last week. This week, the molten iron output also continued to rise. In the short term, the steel market will still follow the cost. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost decline. [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore declined significantly. The decline in oil prices and the news related to iron ore negotiations led to the weakness of iron ore futures and spot prices. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output of blast furnaces increased by 6.9 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is still around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. On the supply side, the shipping and arrival volume of iron ore have both increased this week, and the problem of short - term supply - demand imbalance is gradually being resolved. It is expected that there is limited room for the ore price to continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the decline of energy prices. [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The decline in oil prices has weakened the expectation of rising coal prices. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 6050 - 6150 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 6150 - 6250 yuan/ton. The manganese ore market quotation remains firm. The supply side shows that the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily average output is 27980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. Currently, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area is 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton. The steel procurement in March has basically ended, and the market is waiting for the entry situation in April. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a bullish - biased and volatile mindset. [8] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: According to current news, the US and Iran are indeed in negotiations, and the short - term situation has eased, with risk appetite rising. However, attention should be paid to the actual progress, which may bring significant fluctuations. The spot TC of copper is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, hitting a new low, but the profits from by - products such as sulfuric acid and precious metals have made up for the smelting profit. Coupled with the abundant supply of crude copper and the increase in scrap copper ingot imports, the growth rate of refined copper production is at a high level. The processing fee of southern crude copper is 1800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous high of 2400 yuan/ton, but still at a high level. The core contradiction in the fundamentals still lies in the mine end. It is a consensus in the market that copper mines are tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The domestic and foreign inventories have continued to accumulate, and the visible inventory of the three major exchanges is close to 1.29 million tons, reaching a record high. The copper price has dropped significantly, and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventory. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of inventory reduction. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, the news of the negotiation between the US and Iran overnight stimulated the rise of risk appetite. The easing of the Middle - East situation is actually negative for aluminum, as the aluminum supply in the Middle - East will increase, so the rebound strength of aluminum is weaker than that of other non - ferrous metals. LME aluminum has fallen to the vicinity of the rising trend line. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support. From January to February, the year - on - year increase in domestic primary aluminum production was relatively large, and the pattern of domestic weakness and foreign strength may change temporarily. From the import data, the import of domestic primary aluminum has remained at a high level; the import of scrap aluminum has decreased slightly, and the overseas supply of scrap aluminum is relatively tight. Currently, the domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, with a 3% year - on - year increase in production from January to February, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists. [10] - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc mines are mainly distributed in the south. With the resumption of work and production, the zinc ore processing fee in the southern region has rebounded from 1300 yuan/metal ton to 1500 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee in the northern region has remained at 1500 yuan/metal ton. The TC of imported ore has decreased from 30 US dollars/dry ton to 20 US dollars/dry ton. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the profits from by - products have made up for the losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters cut production in 2025, but will resume production in 2026, with output increasing. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to bring obvious boosts to photovoltaic demand, and may even decline. After the seasonal inventory accumulation of domestic zinc ingots, the inventory has turned to decline, reaching 219,600 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons month - on - month, only slightly lower than the same period in 2022; the LME zinc inventory has increased to nearly 120,000 tons, which has increased significantly from the previous period. [10][11] - **Lead**: Due to the continuous opening of the import window from January to February, the imports of refined lead and crude lead in China have increased significantly in the first two months. Among them, the import of refined lead is 33,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 732%; the import of crude lead is 25,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85%. The import of lead ingots will remain at a high level in March. Domestically, the production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The latest weekly production of primary lead is 57,100 tons, at a high level in recent years. The recovery speed of secondary lead production is similar to that of previous years, and currently, the finished product inventory of secondary lead is 13,800 tons, the highest level since 2020. On the demand side, the peak season has passed and is gradually entering the off - season. The trade - in policy has overdrawn the later demand. Due to the decline in price, downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, and the social inventory of domestic primary lead has decreased, dropping 17,000 tons from the high point to 63,100 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same historical period in recent years, remaining above 280,000 tons. [11] - **Nickel**: On Wednesday, the Indonesian Ministry of Finance stated that if approved by the government, it will start levying a windfall profit tax on nickel from April 1st. Driven by this news, the nickel price has risen. The mine end is still the core contradiction at present. The RKAB quota of Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons. Although there is still room for improvement later, the increase is expected to be limited, and the year - on - year decline compared with 2025 has basically been determined. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources requires mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a supply gap. In addition, the Middle - East conflict has led to a shortage of sulfur in Indonesia, affecting the production of MHP. In addition, the previous tailings accident has also led to enterprise production cuts, so the supply of MHP is at risk of decline. The nickel price still has support at the bottom, but the upside space is limited by the high domestic and foreign inventories. [12] - **Tin**: On the supply side, in the first two months, the import of tin ore from Myanmar was 13,501 tons, a year - on - year increase of 175%, and the monthly average level was similar to that in November and December last year. With the acceleration of pumping in the mines in Wa State, Myanmar, it is expected that the import volume will still have room for further growth; the import of tin ore from other sources is 21,444 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of up to 57%, reflecting that the sources of tin ore imports in China are more diverse; the operating rate has slightly decreased by 0.42%, but it is still at a high level in the same period in recent years; due to the continuous closure of the import window, the import of tin ingots from January to February was 3,269 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. On the demand side, in January 2026, the global semiconductor sales increased by 46% year - on - year, with the growth rate further expanding. However, other traditional and emerging industries have performed poorly. The automobile production from January to February decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, the photovoltaic module production decreased by 26% year - on - year, and the home appliance production plan has continued to decline. The industry is significantly differentiated, and the semiconductor alone cannot support the overall demand, which is generally poor. As the tin price has dropped significantly, downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, and the social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 2,770 tons to 11,035 tons. [13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 rose 4.34%, with the latest settlement price of 158,220 yuan/ton. The weighted contract increased its position by 2,016 lots, with a total position of 595,800 lots. The SMM quoted the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate at 152,500 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 5,000 yuan), and the basis between futures and spot is - 5,480 yuan/ton. For lithium ore, the latest CIF price of Australian spodumene is 2,155 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month increase of 75 US dollars). The production profit of purchasing lithium mica is 6,289 yuan/ton, and the production profit of purchasing spodumene is 1,602 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, the social inventory is continuously decreasing, and the inventory of smelters is at a low level. The strong - reality situation continues, and the export ban in Zimbabwe may cause a short - term supply - demand mismatch. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the support position range, and it is advisable to make long positions at low prices. [14] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2605 rose 1.74%, with the latest settlement price of 8,685 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position is 370,100 lots, an increase of 20,576 lots. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 is 9,200 yuan/ton (month - on - month unchanged), and the futures are at a discount of 430 yuan/ton. In the situation of weak supply and demand, overcapacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. The cost side is driven by coking coal. Attention should be paid to the cost support at the bottom, and interval operations are recommended. [14][15] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of polysilicon 2605 rose 2.77%, with the latest settlement price of 36,555 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position is 50,700 lots

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, global risk appetite continues to recover. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends. The stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds fluctuate in the short term, and cautious waiting is recommended; the black commodity sector rebounds in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the non - ferrous sector fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the energy and chemical sector fluctuates greatly in the short term, and cautious long - positions are recommended; precious metals fluctuate greatly and rebound in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: Affected by new rumors of a cease - fire between the US and Iran, international oil prices declined in the short term, and the US dollar index and US bond yields declined but remained at relatively high levels. Global risk appetite increased overall. - Domestic: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report put forward the main expected development goals and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall goals and policy intensity lower than in 2025 [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as military equipment, electricity, and trade, the domestic stock market rebounded significantly. In the short term, due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rebounded on Tuesday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 982.90 yuan/gram, up 0.37%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17,245 yuan/kilogram, up 1.93%. Spot gold ended a nine - day losing streak and rose 1.54% to 4,474.31 US dollars/ounce; spot silver rose 2.8% to 71.05 US dollars/ounce. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume was at a low level. The real demand is still weak, the steel inventory has peaked and declined, but the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. After the important meeting, the output of the five major varieties of steel increased by 188,500 tons week - on - week, and the hot - metal output increased by nearly 69,000 tons. In the short term, the steel market will still follow the cost, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. The rebound in crude oil prices boosted the ore price. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded; the futures prices showed a differentiated trend, with silicon iron being slightly stronger. The rebound in energy prices still supports the ferroalloy prices. The spot price of manganese ore remains firm. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with a bullish - biased shock mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Middle - East situation. The spot TC of copper is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be in short supply, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream replenished stocks intensively at low prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the risk appetite recovered, and Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The easing of the Middle - East situation is actually bearish for aluminum, and the supply of aluminum in the Middle - East will increase, so the rebound strength of aluminum is weaker than that of other non - ferrous metals. The LME aluminum has fallen near the rising trend line. The year - on - year increase in domestic primary aluminum production from January to February is relatively large, and the pattern of "domestic weakness and foreign strength" may change temporarily [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenues make up for the losses. The overseas smelting plants will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased seasonally [9]. - **Lead**: From January to February, the imports of refined lead and crude lead in China increased significantly. The domestic production of primary lead and secondary lead has recovered seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and it is gradually entering the off - season. The domestic social inventory of primary lead has decreased [10]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. The supply of MHP is at risk of decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside space is limited by high domestic and foreign inventories [11]. - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar and other sources have increased. The demand is not good overall, and the industry is significantly differentiated. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, while the LME inventory has increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 6.11%. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and long - positions can be established at low prices [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.17%. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Attention should be paid to the cost support below, and range - bound operations are recommended [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.17%. The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously or profits should be taken in a timely manner [14][15]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol spot price index is 2676.38, up 32.04. The supply has tightened, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been repaired. The methanol price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by geopolitical easing and downstream negative feedback [16]. - **PP**: The domestic polypropylene parking rate has increased, the upstream supply has shrunk, and the downstream demand has increased. The spot market shows signs of tightness, and it is expected that the market will maintain a strong pattern. The biggest uncertainty lies in the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has been depleted rapidly. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to run strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting external supply [17]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural demand and strong industrial demand". The policy guides the market, and the urea price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [18]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed, and the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil is cautious [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed meal is increasing, and it will adjust with soybean meal in the short term [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting the basis. The supply of rapeseed oil may increase, and it will be under pressure with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, and the support for vegetable oils from crude oil risk has weakened. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the production has decreased. The domestic palm oil import is slow, and the market trading is light [21]. - **Corn**: The corn price is adjusting within a narrow range. The sales progress of corn in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory in ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. The acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises has decreased, and the possible rice bran auction in early April may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is improving marginally but is still in the off - season. The industry's production capacity reduction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President signaled short - term easing, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. International energy prices dropped sharply, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields declined. Domestically, the Chinese economy rebounded better - than - expected from January to February, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. The goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than those in 2025. The market trading logic is mainly focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index may be volatile and weak, but it may pick up after the US President's easing signal. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment [3][4]. - For different asset classes: short - term stock index is volatile and weak, with intensified fluctuations, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; government bonds are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is needed; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term volatile and rebounding, and short - term cautious observation is required; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and weak, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products are short - term highly volatile, and cautious long - positions are advised; precious metals are short - term highly volatile and generally weak, and cautious observation is needed [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the US President's statement about postponing the attack on Iran's energy infrastructure (though Iran denied it) led to a short - term easing of the situation, a sharp drop in international energy prices, and a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. Domestically, the economy and inflation from January to February were better than expected. The goals and policy intensity in the 2026 government work report are lower than in 2025. The stock index may be volatile and weak in the short term but may improve after the US President's easing signal. Attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical situation, policy implementation after the Two Sessions, and market sentiment [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as precious metals, hotels and tourism, and components, the domestic stock market fell sharply. The economy and inflation from January to February were better than expected. The market trading logic is focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. The stock index is short - term volatile and weak, but may pick up after the US President's easing signal. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market had a significant gap - up on Monday night. The Shanghai gold main contract closed at 980 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; the Shanghai silver main contract closed at 17,246 yuan/kilogram, up 3.47%. Spot gold and silver fluctuated greatly. Short - term precious metals are highly volatile and have rebounded. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. The price rebound was driven by strong coking coal, but the industry fundamentals are still weak. Steel inventory has peaked and declined, and the growth of apparent consumption of five major varieties has slowed. After the important meeting, the output of five major varieties of steel and hot metal increased last week. The steel market will follow the cost in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly on Monday, boosted by the strong crude oil price. In terms of fundamentals, the daily average hot metal output of blast furnaces increased, and the profitability of steel mills remained around 42%, so the demand for iron ore is still resilient. The shipment and arrival volume of iron ore will increase this week, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually being alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of iron ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The rebound was affected by the rising crude oil price and the energy substitution logic and will continue in the short term. The manganese ore spot price is still firm. The capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased slightly, and the daily output decreased slightly. The northern production is relatively stable, and the profit margin is acceptable. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices can be considered from a volatile and upward perspective [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The spot TC has dropped below - 60 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be tight, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The inventory at home and abroad has continued to accumulate, reaching a record high. The copper price has dropped sharply, and downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a significant decline in social copper inventory. The sustainability of inventory reduction needs to be observed [9]. - **Aluminum**: The market trading logic on Monday continued from last week, trading on the logic that high oil prices lead to an increase in inflation expectations and a delay in interest rate cuts. The precious metals continued to fall sharply, and the non - ferrous metal sector was searching for a bottom. The domestic primary aluminum output increased significantly from January to February, and the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas may change temporarily. The domestic primary aluminum imports remain high, and the waste aluminum imports have decreased slightly. The domestic aluminum supply is rigid and remains at a high level, and the previously shut - down production capacity will resume production later, so the supply pressure still exists [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and by - product revenues make up for losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters reduced production in 2025 but will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the zinc ingot inventory has decreased after seasonal accumulation. The LME zinc inventory has increased significantly [11]. - **Lead**: The production of primary lead and secondary lead has increased seasonally. The supply pressure still exists. The demand peak season has passed and is gradually entering the off - season. The LME lead inventory has remained at a high level since 2025, and the domestic primary lead social inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the LME lead inventory has not fluctuated much recently, it is still at the highest level in the same period in recent years [12]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly, and although there is room for improvement later, the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. In the first quarter, the mining enterprises will maintain normal production. Due to the Middle East conflict and previous tailings accidents, the MHP supply may decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside is limited by high inventories at home and abroad [12]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore from Myanmar in the first two months increased significantly, and the import from other sources also increased rapidly. The opening rate is still at a high level in the same period in recent years. The tin ingot import has decreased. The demand is uneven, with the semiconductor industry growing rapidly but other industries performing poorly. The downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks intensively at low prices, resulting in a decline in social tin ingot inventory, while the LME inventory has increased. The tin price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, but caution is needed when going long [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The supply and demand are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously being depleted. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a stronger US dollar, suppressing commodity prices, but high oil prices are beneficial to the long - term demand for new energy. The price rebounded at the end of yesterday, but the rumored shutdown of a lithium mine in Zimbabwe needs to be verified, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. It is expected to oscillate at the support level in the short term [14]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the number of open furnaces has increased slightly. The social inventory is at a high level and stable, and the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Affected by coking coal, it is expected to be strongly volatile [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly inventory has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt has decreased. In the long - term, the policy - oriented market clearance is negative. The price is currently in the full - cost range of the industry. The inventory is continuously accumulating at a high level, and the spot price is continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of the photovoltaic industry after April. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or partially take profits [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US postponed the attack on Iran's power facilities, and Trump said that his team had started discussions on ending the conflict. Although Iran denied it, the oil price dropped by more than 14%. The potential negotiation situation is still unclear, but the short - term upside space of the oil price will be limited. However, the US military's attacks on Iran's power - related facilities and the deployment of the Marine Corps still attract market attention. The oil price will continue to be strongly volatile in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The oil price dropped sharply, and asphalt followed. The terminal demand showed some negative feedback, but the total inventory remained low, and the inventory accumulation pressure was limited, giving some upward expectations to asphalt. Recently, refineries have预防性 reduced their production, and the supply will continue to be at a low level. The short - term absolute price will continue to fluctuate greatly following the crude oil. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the Iran situation [16]. - **PX**: The oil price dropped sharply, and PX followed the energy and chemical sector. The price difference between PX and naphtha was suppressed. The downstream start - up recovery is slow, and the willingness to purchase raw materials after the previous emotional stockpiling has decreased. PX is affected by negative feedback. If the oil price strengthens later, there is still some upward space under the cost - driven logic [16]. - **PTA**: The energy and chemical sector followed the crude oil to drop sharply. PTA has seen obvious capital inflows recently, and the decline is about 4%. The downstream manufacturers' willingness to stockpile has decreased significantly, leading to negative feedback and suppressing the PTA price. The basis has decreased significantly, and the production - sales ratio has also decreased. The processing fee has continued to decrease. If the oil price remains strongly volatile, the PTA price will temporarily remain in a range [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the polyester sector followed the crude oil price to drop sharply, ethylene glycol gave back a lot of its gains. However, the overall overseas supply shortage is difficult to change. The export expectation of ethylene glycol has increased significantly, and the port inventory has started to be depleted. The basis of ethylene glycol has strengthened slightly, and there is still upward momentum after breaking through the previous high [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The polyester sector has declined significantly. The production - sales ratio remains at a low level, and the terminal start - up is significantly lower than in previous years, suppressing the upside space of short - fiber. The price negative feedback continues to be transmitted, and the inventory has increased again after the previous de - stocking. The manufacturers' willingness to stockpile has decreased. It will continue to be strongly volatile following PTA and other varieties in the short term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The 05 - month soybean contract closed at 1164.50, up 3.25 or 0.28% (settlement price 1163.50). The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed by the news of Trump's postponed visit to China. During the South American soybean harvest season, the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated, dragging down the CBOT soybean price. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil driven by crude oil is cautious, with increased uncertainty and more fund - holding for observation [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The arrival of imported soybeans at oil mills has decreased seasonally, and there is no news of reserve auctions. The current operation level remains medium, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories are being depleted rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis to be stable and strong. Although the cost support has weakened with the adjustment of US soybeans, the risk of delayed shipment and arrival of Brazilian soybeans still exists. The rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and with the increase in rapeseed imports, the supply concern has subsided. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened slightly, but it is still low, and the substitution consumption space of rapeseed meal is limited. It will mainly fluctuate with soybean meal [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is being depleted rapidly, supporting the basis to be stable, and there is a possibility of further pricing the risk of short - term shortage of imported soybeans. The rapeseed oil supply pressure may gradually appear with the increase in Canadian rapeseed arrivals, and it basically fluctuates in line with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, but during the important observation window of the Middle East situation, the trading sentiment of crude oil is cautious, and the support of vegetable oils from crude oil risks has weakened. Internationally, the export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, the production has decreased, and the inventory may continue to decline. Domestically, the palm oil inventory has decreased [21][22]. - **Corn**: The national corn price has fluctuated. The futures price is running strongly, driving up the purchase price at the northern port. The sales progress of corn in the main producing areas has slowed down, and the storage cost of traders is high, so there is still a sentiment of supporting the price. The port and deep - processing inventories are low, supporting the price to be stable. The downstream feed enterprises are using more imported grains and policy - auctioned grains, and their acceptance of high - priced corn has decreased. The news of brown rice auctions in early April has not been confirmed, which may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Hogs**: The pig production capacity is in the painful period of accelerated adjustment. The demand has improved marginally but is still in the off - season. The losses of farmers have increased, and the expectation of production capacity reduction has increased. The pig weight is increasing, and the second - fattening and frozen - product storage have increased. Retail farmers are reluctant to sell, but the group - farm sales have increased significantly. It is expected that the short - term spot and futures prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the industry is "oscillating weakly" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the analysis of the meal market, suggesting that the soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the recovery of Brazilian shipping and the expected increase in US soybean planting area, with a neutral - bearish outlook. Rapeseed meal is mainly influenced by short - term supply shortages and medium - term supply increases, following the soybean meal trend but weaker [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Brazilian soybean shipping has basically returned to normal, with an expected shipment of about 10 million tons in March, alleviating supply concerns. The visit of the Brazilian agriculture minister to China and the Brazilian trucker strike are new uncertainties. Global soybean production is expected to be abundant, and the expected increase in the area of new US soybean crops will suppress price upside. Rapeseed meal has a short - term supply shortage but a medium - term supply increase [5] - **Demand**: Short - term soybean meal demand has rigid support due to a large breeding inventory, but the concern about shortages in April has eased, and long - term demand is expected to decline due to capacity reduction. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of aquaculture, but there is an expected seasonal increase in demand from April to June, and the expanding spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may divert some soybean meal demand [5] - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are currently high, but domestic soybean meal is expected to further reduce inventory in April. The national rapeseed meal inventory has increased weekly and is at a low level, supporting near - month prices [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is widening, and the M05 - M09 spread is weakening. The M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended [5] - **Profit**: The Brazilian CNF premium for soybean meal has risen, and the price has oscillated downward this week, leading to a decline in the crushing profit. The rapeseed meal crushing profit has increased this week [5] - **Valuation**: Soybean meal is at a relatively low historical valuation and is sensitive to positive factors. Rapeseed meal is at a relatively low price and has room for valuation repair [5] - **Macro and Policy**: The ongoing Middle East conflict has increased oil and global logistics costs, bringing risk premiums to agricultural products. The US biodiesel policy supports long - term US soybean demand. China has suspended the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Brazilian agriculture minister's visit to China and the Sino - US trade talks in April on soybean trade [5] - **Investment View**: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to international trade policy changes and US soybean planting area adjustments. For the spread, attention should be paid to the M05 - M09 reverse spread opportunity. Rapeseed meal mainly follows the soybean meal trend but is weaker [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate weakly, and the M05 - M09 reverse spread is recommended. Policy and weather should be monitored [5] 3.2 Meal Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: In March, the 25/26 global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio was raised [30] - **Canadian Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: The March report shows a downward adjustment of the Canadian rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [37] - **US Soybean Domestic Crushing Profit**: The crushing profit is at a high level [43] - **US Soybean Export Sales Progress**: The export sales progress is slow [51] - **Brazilian Soybean Harvest Rate**: The harvest rate is presented in the data [58] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Import and Inventory**: Data on soybean and rapeseed import volume, inventory, and related costs such as CNF premiums and import crushing profits are provided [60][62][66][68] - **Oil Mill Operation and Sales**: Data on the operation rate, crushing volume, sales volume, and consumption of oil mills are presented [76][78][86][90] - **Feed and Livestock Farming**: Data on feed production, livestock farming profits, and related market indicators are provided [97][99][107][113]