二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 01 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 谢义钦 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周CBOT豆类期货价格继续上涨。 一方面，市场预计中国对特朗普承诺的加购800万吨大豆将会认真执行，对美豆出口抱有较高的期待， 支撑较强。另一方面，EPA提交RVO提案，市场对上调生柴掺混量有所预期，给油脂市场带来支撑；最后，南 美南部地区的降水依然不足，可能对部分地区大豆单产形成损害，当然我们也应该看到巴西收割速度开始加 快，其丰产格局基本可以确定，且USDA年度展望论坛预计2026年美国大豆种植面积增加380万英亩等因素对 美豆价格形成压制。 总体看，美豆价格继续维持区间震荡的概率较大。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 美豆周度报告 所 期货研究 1.美豆总体观点与多空逻辑 图表1：美豆总体观点与多空逻辑 总体观点 南美丰产，没有牛市基础；需求有望好转，下方空间有限，总体震荡偏强，区间1000-1200美分/蒲式耳 空方逻辑 1、中国购买美豆后，特朗普政府对生柴添加政策的支持力度可能减弱 2、巴西进入收割阶 ...

美豆出口延续偏强走势，而巴西二月发运少于预期可能 使得四月到港预期 减少，豆粕出现明显上涨。后续需要关注到港以及国储抛储进程，预估本周延续 偏强震荡行情。 油脂：据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚 2 月 1-20 日 棕榈油产量预估减少 12.29%，其中马来半岛减少 10.74%，沙巴减少 15.23%，沙 捞越减少 11.20%，婆罗洲减少 14.19%。据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来 西亚 2 月 1-25 日棕榈油出口量为 922649 吨，较上月同期出口的 1099033 吨减少 16.05%。 美国环保署 EPA 将于周末前向白宫提交最终拟定的生物燃料混合配额，白宫 通常会在收到提案后约 30 天内完成审查并公布最终结果。这将符合白宫此前自 行设定的 3 月末前完成 2026 年和 2027 年可再生能源使用目标的最后期限。 美豆油受到美国生物燃料政策支撑走势偏强，而假期马棕处于供需双弱阶段， 从供需数据上来说预估二月份库存将再次下降，不过因为原库存较大，将压制近 月反弹高度。油脂板块总的来说谨慎乐观，下方空间相对有限，上方反弹高度则 需要政策引导，后续需要重点关注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment remains turbulent during the Spring Festival holiday, with significant events such as changes in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts leading to volatility in major asset prices, adding uncertainty to the domestic market opening after the holiday [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - The international market experienced significant price fluctuations during the holiday, impacting domestic market expectations for various commodities, with potential for rebound opportunities in certain sectors [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate policies have intensified, with discussions around rate cuts, pauses, and hikes, which could significantly influence global markets [3][5] - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions have shifted, with a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in June, although the overall expectation for potential cuts later in the year remains unchanged [5] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Precious metals are expected to see significant price increases, supported by overseas market trends, although high volatility is anticipated due to potential regulatory measures [16] - The energy sector is likely to experience price increases, particularly in crude oil, driven by geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics, despite a general oversupply in the global market [14][15] - Agricultural products, particularly wheat, are gaining attention due to declining inventories and potential for price rebounds, with notable increases in prices for soybean oil and palm oil during the holiday [16] Group 3: Risk Factors and Trading Strategies - The market is expected to open broadly higher with structural differentiation, focusing on rebound opportunities, particularly in precious metals and crude oil [17] - Key risks to monitor include potential gaps in pricing, unusual changes in positions, and liquidity risks, with recommendations for cautious trading strategies [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight decrease observed in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 4, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 54.49 cents per pound and are currently at 54.44 cents per pound, reflecting a decline of 0.15% [1]. - The trading session on February 3 saw soybean oil open at 53.35 cents, reach a high of 54.78 cents, and close at 54.32 cents, marking an increase of 2.28% [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - The price of Argentine soybean oil for April shipment has decreased by $60 per ton to $1,142, while the June shipment price has dropped by $16 per ton to $1,127 [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Trading Volume - As of February 3, the national soybean oil port inventory stands at 879,000 tons, down from 892,000 tons on January 27, indicating a reduction of 13,000 tons [2]. - The trading volume for national first-grade soybean oil on February 3 was 49,000 tons, which represents an increase of 113.04% compared to the previous trading day [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CBOT soybean oil futures prices are experiencing an upward trend, with the current price at 52.59 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.13% increase [1] - On January 20, the opening price of soybean oil futures was 52.65 cents per pound, with a closing price of 52.55 cents per pound, showing a slight increase of 0.08% [2] - The highest price during the trading session on January 20 reached 53.19 cents per pound, while the lowest was 52.41 cents per pound [2] Group 2 - Argentine soybean oil prices for February shipment increased by $9 per ton to $1218 per ton, while April shipment prices rose by $16 per ton to $1155 per ton [2] - Domestic soybean oil inventory as of the end of the third week of 2026 is 1.1404 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons from the previous week, representing a 5.69% decline [2] - Coastal soybean oil inventory is reported at 1.0395 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous week, which is a 5.46% decrease [2] - The national first-class soybean oil transaction volume on January 20 was 21,000 tons, an increase of 31.25% compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The oilseed market received positive news as the Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, maintaining the initial proposal while dropping penalties on renewable fuel imports [1] - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency indicated an increase in biomass diesel targets made from soybean oil and other crops, which could significantly boost biomass diesel production if adopted [1] - Soybean oil futures surged by 3.81%, while domestic futures for rapeseed oil rose by 2.57%, and palm oil and soybean oil futures saw slight increases [1] Group 2: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - The palm oil market is shifting focus, with Indonesia experiencing a production decline due to the rainy season and strong export performance [2] - Indonesia is considering raising palm oil export taxes to support its B50 plan, which could elevate global price levels and enhance the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil [2] - Strong export data, particularly a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in exports to India, has shifted market attention from static high inventories to tightening supply-demand expectations [2] Group 3: Rapeseed Oil Market Challenges - The rapeseed oil market is primarily driven by trade policy expectations, with short-term price support from delayed arrivals and low inventories [3] - However, long-term supply pressures are anticipated due to improved trade relations following the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, which may lead to policy adjustments [3] - Market participants are awaiting outcomes from high-level meetings between China and Canada, as any news regarding tariffs or trade policies could cause significant market fluctuations [3] Group 4: Soybean Oil Market Insights - Domestic demand for small packaged oil is strong ahead of the Spring Festival, with a forecasted decrease in soybean arrivals in Q1, supporting soybean oil prices [4] - However, favorable weather in Brazil is raising expectations for a bumper crop, alongside domestic policy-driven stock releases, which may limit price increases [4] - The domestic soybean oil inventory has dropped to a near five-month low, creating a solid price floor amid consumption peak expectations [4] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - The potential implementation of increased export taxes by Indonesia will be crucial in determining the sustainability of the palm oil price rebound, impacting global demand distribution [4] - The soybean oil market is expected to maintain a stable fundamental outlook in Q1 due to ongoing holiday consumption support, with limited changes anticipated [4] - The market is entering a phase of expectation validation, with a focus on the speed of inventory reduction in palm oil and a range-bound trading pattern for soybean oil until South American production is fully realized [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March, maintaining the initial proposal while dropping penalties on renewable fuel imports, which could lead to a significant increase in biomass diesel production [1] - Soybean oil futures surged by 3.81% following the news, while domestic vegetable oil futures also saw gains, with palm oil and soybean oil futures rising slightly [1] - The palm oil market is currently in a state of "bad news exhausted, new drivers arriving," with a focus on the potential impact of Indonesia's export tax increase on palm oil, which could enhance its competitiveness globally [2] Group 2 - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to reduce palm oil production in January and February, while strong export performance is noted, particularly with a nearly 50% year-on-year increase in exports to India [2] - The palm oil price rebound faces challenges due to higher-than-expected production in December, leading to inventory accumulation, which creates price pressure [2] - The canola oil market is primarily driven by trade policy expectations, with short-term price support from delayed imports and low inventory, but long-term supply pressures are anticipated due to improved trade relations with Canada [3] Group 3 - Domestic demand for soybean oil is strong ahead of the Spring Festival, with a forecasted decrease in soybean imports in the first quarter, supporting short-term prices [3] - The international soybean market lacks new developments, but domestic soybean oil inventories have dropped to a five-month low, providing a solid price floor [3] - Future market dynamics will focus on the speed of inventory reduction for palm oil and the balance between tight supply and policy expectations for canola oil, with potential for trend-driven movements [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing a continuous upward trend, with the current price at 50.56 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.42% increase [1] - On January 12, the opening price for soybean oil futures was 49.80 cents per pound, reaching a high of 50.89 cents and closing at 50.25 cents, marking an increase of 1.11% [2] - As of January 9, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of the country stands at 1.0251 million tons, which is a decrease of 55,900 tons or 5.17% compared to the previous week [2] Group 2 - On January 12, the number of soybean oil futures warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 29,197, a decrease of 229 from the previous trading day [2] - The national first-level soybean oil trading volume on January 12 was 19,500 tons, which is a decrease of 11.36% compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CBOT soybean oil futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a slight increase in price observed on December 30 [1] - On December 29, the opening price of soybean oil was 49.29 cents per pound, with a closing price of 49.25 cents, reflecting a decrease of 0.06% [2] - The highest price reached on December 29 was 49.44 cents per pound, while the lowest was 49.02 cents per pound [2] Group 2 - As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of the country was 1.089 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 3.07% [2] - The C&F price for Argentine soybean oil for February shipment remained stable at $1,140 per ton, while the April shipment price was also stable at $1,075 per ton [2] - According to the industry journal "Oil World," Argentina's soybean oil export volume in November was 524,000 tons, down from 646,000 tons in the previous month and 687,000 tons in November of the previous year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures are experiencing a low-level strong fluctuation, with the current price at 49.78 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.40% increase from the opening price of 49.71 cents per pound [1] - On October 30, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 50.16 cents per pound, reached a high of 50.26 cents, and closed at 49.60 cents, marking a decrease of 1.12% [2] - The trading volume of national first-grade soybean oil was 8,700 tons on October 30, which represents a decrease of 75.14% compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2 - As of October 30, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) reported a soybean oil futures warehouse receipt of 27,644 lots, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - In the spot market, soybean oil prices in Jiangsu province ranged from 8,370 yuan/ton to 8,470 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]