Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and related products, along with important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the market. It details price changes, production, consumption, and trade data to assist in understanding the market trends of these commodities [1][2][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products are provided. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices and exchange rates are given [1]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and changes of imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1产区Weather - US soybean - producing states' future weather (August 20 - 24) shows that most areas will have above - normal temperatures and half of the regions will have precipitation close to the median. The Midwest will experience temperature increases and varying precipitation patterns, which may impact crops differently [4][6]. 3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period in July according to AmSpec and ITS. Indonesia will crack down on illegal palm plantation activities. CFTC持仓 reports show changes in positions of various agricultural products. North American field surveys on corn and soybeans will be conducted. NOPA data indicates US soybean crushing and soybean oil inventory in July. Canadian and Ukrainian agricultural production and harvest progress are also reported. The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index shows different trends for different types of ships [8][9][10]. 3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 15, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased significantly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal also changed, and the oil mill's开机 rate decreased slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume in the 33rd week was lower than expected. Pig - raising profits and agricultural product wholesale prices showed certain changes [14][15]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1 International News - US economic data such as inflation expectations, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, retail sales, import prices, industrial output, and business inventory are reported [17]. 4.2 Domestic News - The RMB exchange rate, central bank's open - market operations, national economic data, monetary policy report, and a WTO lawsuit against Canada are presented [19]. 5. Capital Flows - The capital flow data of major futures varieties on August 15 are provided, including the net inflow and outflow of funds in different types of futures such as commodity futures and stock index futures [21][22]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

北京时间8月13日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格偏强运行，今日开盘报53.06美分/磅，现报 每吨53.28美分/磅，涨幅0.40%，盘中最高触及53.30美分/磅，最低下探52.92美分/磅。 豆油期货行情回顾： 8月12日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美豆油 52.92 53.42 51.90 53.21 0.55% 【豆油市场消息速递】 8月12日，阿根廷豆油(9月船期)C&F价格1125美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调24美元/吨；阿根廷豆油 (11月船期)C&F价格1119美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调11美元/吨。 8月12日：全国一级豆油成交量20600吨，环比上个交易日增加6.19%。 截至8月12日，全国豆油港口库存为106.8万吨，上周同期为105.5万吨，环比增加1.3万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity market experienced a rare daily limit surge on Tuesday, with the main contracts of six varieties, including glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, closing at the daily limit. The core driving force for this rally is the continuous release of the "anti-involution" policy signal by the state, combined with the coal mine production inspection notice circulated on the same day, which triggered expectations of supply tightening [2][46]. - The international precious metal futures generally closed higher, while international oil prices slightly declined. London's base metals mostly rose, and international agricultural product futures showed mixed performance [3][4][5]. - In the financial market, A-shares continued to rise, and the Hong Kong stock market also showed an upward trend. The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, and Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter [30]. - Overseas, there are various events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel, and corporate financial reports [10][11][43]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic commodity market: Six varieties' main contracts closed at the daily limit, and the black series continued to rise at night, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29% [2]. - International precious metal futures: COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices: WTI crude oil main contract fell 0.76% to $65.45 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.66% to $68.75 per barrel [4]. - London base metals: Most rose, with LME zinc up 0.53%, LME copper up 0.39%, LME tin up 0.32%, and LME aluminum up 0.21% [4]. - International agricultural product futures: Mixed performance, with US soybeans down 0.17%, US corn down 1.18%, US soybean oil down 0.59%, US soybean meal up 1.13%, and US wheat up 1.34% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high-quality development of rural highways [8]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [8]. - The current market has no obvious unilateral expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and market transactions are rational and orderly [9]. - There are various international events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel [10][11][12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The next round of China-US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil [15]. - As of the week of July 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt increased by 0.3%, and the factory inventory decreased by 2.6% [15]. Metal Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will support the stable operation and high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry [17][18]. - China's alumina exports in June 2025 decreased by 17.71% month-on-month but increased by 8.95% year-on-year [18]. - In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons, and from January to May, the surplus was 272,000 tons [18]. Black Series Futures - Some steel mills plan to raise the price of wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on July 23 [20]. - The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China increased by 722,500 tons compared with last Monday [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Russia reduced its wheat production and export volume forecasts for 2025 [22]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high, but the inventory reached an 18-month high [23]. - It is expected that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [23]. - Various other agricultural product data, including soybean, pig, and sugar production and trade information [25][26][28]. Financial Market Finance - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.62% to 3581.86 points, and the market turnover expanding to 1.93 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.54% to 25,130.03 points, and the southbound capital had a net inflow of HK$2.717 billion [30]. - The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, with 589 companies listed, raising a total of 925.7 billion yuan in IPOs and 186.7 billion yuan in refinancing [30]. - Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs by over 200 billion yuan in the second quarter [32]. - Overseas institutions mainly surveyed companies in the electronics, machinery, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries in July [32]. - Zhongyou Insurance triggered a mandatory tender offer by buying 726,000 shares of Green Power Environmental Protection H shares [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange took regulatory measures against abnormal trading behavior in *ST Yazhen [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company will launch the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Index and the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Strategy Index on July 23 [33]. - SenseTime plans to enter the field of embodied intelligence [33]. Industry - The National Data Administration has guided the construction of data annotation bases in 7 cities and plans to layout data industry agglomeration areas in the second half of the year [34]. - 127 domestic games and 7 imported games obtained game licenses in July [36]. - The game "Late Ming: Feather of the Abyss" topped the Steam bestseller list [36]. - The news of "Beijing banning fuel vehicles from ride-hailing platforms" was false [36]. - China's shipbuilding industry maintained its global leading position in the first half of the year [36]. - Telecommunication business revenue in the first half of the year was 905.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% [37]. Overseas - Trump called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and said that Fed Chairman Powell would leave office soon [38]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that tariff revenue was "huge" and supported Powell to complete his term [38]. - Various international events, including trade negotiations, policy statements, and corporate financial reports [38][40][43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.4%, the S&P 500 rising 0.06%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.39% [43]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX falling 1.09%, the French CAC40 falling 0.69%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 0.12% [43]. - Coca-Cola's second-quarter adjusted revenue and earnings per share were better than expected [43]. - General Motors' second-quarter revenue and net profit declined [44]. - Lockheed Martin's second-quarter net sales and operating profit were lower than expected, and it lowered its full-year earnings per share forecast [45]. Commodities - Similar to the overnight night market trends, the domestic commodity market had a daily limit surge, and international precious metal, oil, and base metal futures showed different performances [2][3][4][46]. - Russia maintained its forecast for grain production and export volume [48]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was weak, with treasury bond futures closing down [49]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of interbank market bonds, accounting for about 2.5% of the total [50]. - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued a 20 billion yuan panda bond [50]. - Japanese government bond yields attracted record foreign capital inflows [52]. - US bond yields declined across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, and the market had no obvious unilateral expectation [53]. - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose 12 points, and the offshore RMB rose 5 points [54][55]. - The US dollar index fell 0.49%, and most non-US currencies rose [54]. Upcoming Events - There are various events scheduled for July 23, including central bank operations, press conferences, and industry exhibitions [56].

Core Viewpoint - The market for rapeseed meal is under pressure due to ample supply and stable demand, making it difficult for prices to sustain upward momentum before the weather trading phase for U.S. soybeans begins [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The increase in imported soybeans has led to a normalization of customs clearance and unloading, resulting in abundant raw materials for coastal oil mills and a rise in operating rates, which has expanded soybean meal production [2] - As of June 20, 2025, the physical inventory days of soybean meal for domestic feed enterprises reached 7.74 days, an increase of 0.91 days (11.75%) from the previous week and 4.08% higher than the same period last year, marking the highest level in three years [2] - The current high inventory levels of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, along with the potential for increased market circulation of previously imported rapeseed meal, may exert downward pressure on domestic prices [2] Group 2: Demand Challenges - The trade friction between China and Canada has led to a reduction in imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal, narrowing the price gap between rapeseed meal and soybean meal, thus diminishing the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal [3] - The current harvest of domestic wheat, which is competitively priced compared to corn, is prompting some feed mills to substitute wheat for corn, further reducing the demand for relatively expensive soybean meal [3] Group 3: Market Influences - The "seesaw" effect is evident as U.S. biodiesel policies have driven up soybean oil futures, which in turn has influenced the prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil, potentially suppressing rapeseed meal prices [4] - With the completion of canola planting in Canada and favorable growth conditions for U.S. soybeans, the likelihood of weather-related price fluctuations in the short term is low [4] - As trade relations between China and the U.S. and Canada improve, the normalization of soybean and rapeseed imports is expected, maintaining a backdrop of ample supply for meal products [4]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures: Most domestic futures rose. SC crude oil rose 6.13%, PX and PTA rose over 3%, short - fiber, LPG, methanol, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and bottle chips rose over 2%. Coking coal and iron ore fell slightly [2] - International crude oil: US crude oil rose 4.97% to $73.74 per barrel, Brent crude rose 4.96% to $76.86 per barrel [3] - International precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.32% to $3406.50 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 2.01% to $37.18 per ounce [4] - London base metals: Most London base metals fell. LME copper fell 0.34% to $9670 per ton, LME lead fell 1.57% to $1976 per ton [5] - International agricultural products: International agricultural products were mixed. US soybeans rose 0.40%, US corn fell 0.92%, US soybean oil fell 0.76%, US soybean meal rose 0.53%, and US wheat rose 2.33% [6] 2. Important News Macro News - Geopolitical: Trump denied Macron's statement about his return to Washington. Israel wants to destroy Iran's nuclear program. Iran attacked Israeli intelligence agencies. Russia attacked Kiev with drones and missiles [9][10] - US economy: US retail sales in May fell more than expected due to weak auto sales. Retail sales fell 0.9% in May after a 0.1% decline in April [12][13] Energy and Chemical Futures - Oil market: IEA predicts oil demand will peak in 2029 and supply will be sufficient by 2030. Russia's Novak said OPEC+ may change its production - increase decision. The EU plans to ban long - term LNG services to Russian customers from 2026 [15][16] Metal Futures - Gold: Citi expects gold to fall below $3000 per ounce in the next few quarters. 95% of central banks surveyed by the World Gold Council think global central banks will increase gold reserves in the next 12 months [18][20] Black - Series Futures - Iron ore: On June 17, China's 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 24.99 tons. Australian and Brazilian port inventories also declined [22] Agricultural Futures - Soybeans and related products: As of June 13, domestic soybean and bean - meal inventories changed. Some US states may have less soybean planting due to rain. India cut edible - oil tariffs. EU's imports of agricultural products changed. Brazil's June soybean export forecast was adjusted [24][26][27] 3. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares: On Tuesday, A - shares had a narrow range. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.04%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, and ChiNext Index fell 0.36%. The trading volume was 1.24 trillion yuan [29] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 0.34%. South - bound capital had net purchases of HK$63 billion. Many companies had IPO - related news [31][32] - US stocks: US stocks fell. The Dow fell 0.7%, S&P 500 fell 0.84%, and Nasdaq fell 0.91% [42] - European stocks: European stocks fell due to geopolitical risks and economic concerns [42] Commodities - Oil: Oil prices rose. US API crude inventory decreased more than expected. IEA predicts a supply surplus in 2025 [44][46] - Precious metals: Gold fell 0.32%, silver rose 2.01%. Central banks are likely to increase gold reserves [44][46] - Base metals: Most base metals fell, affected by Fed policy and demand [44] Bonds - Domestic bonds: Domestic bonds were strong. Short - term bonds performed better. Bond funds' investment heat increased [47] - US bonds: US bond yields fell due to geopolitical risks and expected Fed rate cuts [48] - EU bonds: EU bond yields rose due to increased bond supply expectations [50] Foreign Exchange - RMB: On Tuesday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell. The US dollar index rose due to its safe - haven property [51]

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