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ETO Markets 市场洞察:黄金狂飙突进!央行30年首次"抛弃"美债,3500美元只是起点?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 04:34
Core Insights - Spot gold prices continue to rise strongly, with a cumulative increase of over 3% in the past five trading days, breaking through the historical high of $3,500 per ounce [1] - Global central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with the total gold reserve surpassing $3.9 trillion, exceeding the U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in 30 years [3] - The market sentiment indicators show mixed signals, with the CNN "Fear and Greed Index" remaining in the "Greed" zone but trending downward, indicating potential increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [4] Market Dynamics - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has strengthened, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovering around 4.2%, diminishing the attractiveness of bonds and reinforcing gold's position as a preferred safe-haven asset [3] - Technical indicators are showing bullish signals, with gold successfully breaking through the $3,450 per ounce resistance level, and if it holds above $3,500, it could open up further upside potential [6] - Immediate support has shifted to $3,450, with the $3,355 area serving as a critical defense line due to the convergence of the 50-period SMA and cloud support [7] Investment Considerations - The current market environment presents three favorable factors: structural demand support, expectations of a shift in monetary policy, and technical breakout signals [9] - Investors should focus on the effectiveness of the $3,500 breakthrough, the policy guidance from the Federal Reserve's September meeting, and changes in global central bank gold purchasing patterns [9]