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未知机构:基于规则的旧秩序摇摇欲坠全球实物资产的通胀来临上周加拿-20260127
未知机构· 2026-01-27 01:55
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the global economic landscape, particularly focusing on the challenges facing the post-World War II rules-based order, which has been primarily constructed by the victors and losers of the war. This order includes political frameworks like the United Nations and trade organizations such as the World Trade Organization, along with supporting economic and financial systems [1][1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments - The current geopolitical divide has expanded from a U.S.-China focus to a broader U.S. versus non-U.S. dynamic, marking a significant shift in global political alignments [1][1][1]. - The existing rules-based order is under severe threat, with the United States, as the architect of this order, now being viewed as a challenger to its own creation [1][1][1]. - A potential collapse of this system could lead to significant repercussions for the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, which are considered the lifeblood of the current economic framework. The introduction of alternative financial instruments could severely undermine the credibility of the dollar and U.S. debt [2][2][2]. Important but Overlooked Content - The actions of Denmark and Sweden in selling U.S. Treasury bonds highlight a growing trend among international investors to divest from dollar-denominated assets. This shift is expected to lead to increased allocations towards safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3][3][3]. - The onset of a new inflationary era, driven by precious metals, is anticipated. This inflationary cycle is characterized by constrained supply and new marginal demand, particularly influenced by supply chain restructuring and security needs. Consequently, commodities priced in dollars may experience a dual impact from both their commodity and financial attributes [3][3][3].