证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-08-08投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8458，基差80，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：7月4日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 加征关税导致菜系领涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [3][5][6] - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. [7] Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil from the shipping survey agency shows a 4% month-on-month increase this month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8350, with a basis of 206, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 860,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The export data shows an increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 64, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous value of 390,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [5] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The export data shows an increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 143, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 630,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [6] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [6] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600. [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season. [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [7]