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公募基金指数跟踪周报(2026.02.02-2026.02.06):节前震荡下行,风格短期切换-20260209
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 12:57
Report Overview - The report is a weekly update on public - offering funds from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026, analyzing the performance of the equity and fixed - income markets and various fund indices [1][3]. 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - In the equity market, last week (2026.02.02 - 2026.02.06), major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index declined. The A - share market's downward volatility increased due to global resource futures fluctuations and US tech giants' earnings announcements. The tech sector may face more pressure after the Two Sessions, while mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement are worth attention [3][12]. - In the fixed - income market, the bond yield curve flattened last week. Short - term negative factors have been eliminated, so the bond market may not experience significant fluctuations. However, after the Spring Festival, the bond market's volatility may increase due to the active stock market and policy expectations [4][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.27%, the CSI 300 dropped 1.33%, and the ChiNext Index declined 3.28%. The A - share market's volatility increased, and the overall market sentiment cooled. The daily average trading volume of the whole A - shares was 24032 billion, a decrease from the previous week. Industry rotation was rapid, with resource - cycle sectors and power equipment being active. The tech - growth sector faced adjustment pressure [12]. - The value style strengthened due to low - level price rebounds and high - dividend defensive needs. The market is trading "event - driven prosperity improvement" and "assets with clear price signals." The tech sector may face more pressure after the Two Sessions, and mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement should be focused on [13]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market - Last week, the bond yield curve flattened. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 1.80BP to 1.32%, the 10 - year yield fell 0.1BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield dropped 3.8BP to 2.25%. The long - end yield continued to decline, and the term spread narrowed. The bond market was oscillating strongly. Some risk - averse funds may have flowed into the bond market due to stock market fluctuations, and the central bank actively provided liquidity. The local bond issuance was well - received, eliminating previous market concerns. However, after the Spring Festival, the bond market's volatility may increase [4][14]. - US Treasury yields declined last week. The 1 - year yield dropped 3BP to 3.45%, the 2 - year yield fell 2BP to 3.50%, and the 10 - year yield decreased 4BP to 4.22%. The employment market data showed a cooling trend, which led to the decline of the US Treasury yield curve. The CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.91% last week, and most sectors declined. Four new public - offering REITs made progress in the primary market [15]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Fund Index Performance | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Since the Beginning of this Year | Since Strategy Implementation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Active Stock Fund Selection | - 2.20% | 3.82% | 7.86% | 55.05% | | Value Stock Fund Selection | - 0.24% | 3.64% | 6.91% | 29.34% | | Balanced Stock Fund Selection | - 1.81% | 2.25% | 6.04% | 37.83% | | Growth Stock Fund Selection | - 2.65% | 3.40% | 8.12% | 56.09% | | Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection | - 0.85% | - 5.45% | 3.27% | 15.22% | | Consumption Stock Fund Selection | - 0.57% | 1.17% | 4.13% | 9.11% | | Technology Stock Fund Selection | - 1.98% | 1.83% | 6.27% | 62.66% | | High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection | - 3.30% | 1.58% | 7.39% | 42.12% | | Cyclical Stock Fund Selection | - 3.76% | 4.70% | 9.95% | 43.97% | [17] 3.2.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance | Index Classification | Last Week | Last Month | Since the Beginning of this Year | Since Strategy Implementation | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Money - enhancing Index | 0.03% | 0.12% | 0.14% | 4.63% | | Short - term Bond Fund Selection | 0.04% | 0.15% | 0.17% | 4.79% | | Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Selection | 0.09% | 0.45% | 0.42% | 7.25% | | Low - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.04% | 0.51% | 0.95% | 5.56% | | Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.63% | 0.42% | 1.15% | 7.54% | | High - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection | - 0.23% | 0.69% | 1.65% | 9.98% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | - 0.20% | 3.63% | 6.68% | 32.56% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | - 0.26% | - 0.13% | - 0.18% | 9.82% | | REITs Fund Selection | - 1.86% | 2.19% | 3.77% | 35.61% | [18] 3.3 Index Positioning and Benchmarks 3.3.1 Equity Strategy Theme Index - Active Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core position selects active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - oriented Fund Index. The benchmark is the CSI Equity - oriented Fund Index [19]. 3.3.2 Investment Style Index - Value Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index [19]. - Balanced Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with relatively balanced and value - growth styles. The benchmark is the CSI 800 [21]. - Growth Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The benchmark is the 800 Growth Index [25]. 3.3.3 Industry Theme Index - Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index [27]. - Consumption Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The benchmark is the consumption theme fund index [31]. - Technology Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The benchmark is the technology theme fund index [34]. - High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). The benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index [35]. - Cyclical Stock Fund Selection Index: Selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petrochemical, etc.). The benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index [39]. 3.3.4 Money - enhancing Index - Money - enhancing Strategy Index: Aims for liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds. It mainly allocates money - market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The benchmark is the CSI Money - market Fund Index [42]. 3.3.5 Pure - Bond Index - Short - term Bond Fund Selection Index: Aims for liquidity management, ensures drawdown control, and pursues a smooth - upward curve. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The benchmark is 50% * Short - term Pure - Bond Fund Index+50% * Ordinary Money - market Fund Index [44]. - Medium - and Long - term Bond Fund Selection Index: Invests in medium - and long - term pure - bond funds, pursues stable returns while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds each period, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, and adjusts the ratio of credit - bond funds and interest - rate - bond funds according to market conditions [47]. 3.3.6 Fixed - income + Index - Low - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 10%, selects 10 funds with an equity central position within 15% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [51]. - Medium - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 20%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [51]. - High - volatility Fixed - income + Fund Selection Index: The equity central position is 30%, selects 5 funds with an equity central position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - price Index [55]. 3.3.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index: Selects 5 funds from a sample space of bond - type funds with a convertible - bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters, based on an evaluation system [58]. - QDII Bond Fund Selection Index: Selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions [60]. - REITs Fund Selection Index: Selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [61].