全球电力供需

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国泰海通|煤炭:从全球视角看电力供需,煤电仍是压舱石
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-09-12 08:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the frequent global electricity shortages are primarily due to the rapid growth in electricity demand, while the supply-side structural bottlenecks have not been effectively resolved. Traditional energy generation, represented by coal power, remains a stabilizing force in the global electricity system in the medium to long term [1][4]. Group 2 - Global electricity demand is experiencing a significant increase, with a projected growth rate of 4.4% in 2024, outpacing global GDP growth of 2.9%. This growth is driven by three main factors: deep electrification in the industrial sector, rapid expansion of data centers driven by artificial intelligence, and increased extreme weather events due to global climate change [2][3]. Group 3 - The supply-side structural bottlenecks are becoming more pronounced as electricity demand accelerates. Despite significant investments in renewable energy, the intermittent and unstable nature of sources like wind and solar power has not provided a stable support for electricity demand. Issues such as aging grid infrastructure and inadequate energy storage systems hinder the effective absorption and utilization of new clean energy [3][4]. Group 4 - Coal power is being reconsidered as a crucial component of the global electricity system to address the increasing electricity supply gap. The U.S. is expected to restart coal power by 2025, marking a significant shift in energy development strategies among developed countries. The EIA forecasts a 6% increase in U.S. coal consumption in 2025, indicating a potential shift in energy policy as developed nations seek stable power sources to support rapid technological advancements and respond to extreme weather challenges [4].