Core Viewpoint - The current oil price trend reflects a delicate balance between "demand recovery expectations" and "supply contraction concerns" as the market digests positive external economic data [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Brent and WTI crude oil prices have both maintained slight increases, with a cumulative rise of over 4.5% in the past five trading days, highlighting the influence of geopolitical risks on prices [1][3] - Recent economic data from major economies has exceeded expectations, particularly strong personal consumption expenditures and export performance, providing solid support for oil prices and alleviating recession fears [1][3] Supply Chain Challenges - A series of chain reactions are intensifying market concerns, as increased regulatory scrutiny and deepened sanctions are posing severe challenges to oil-exporting countries' logistics [4] - Several oil tankers are unable to dock or unload as planned, resorting to "floating storage" near shore, indicating saturation in onshore storage and revealing that export bottlenecks are transitioning from expectation to reality [4] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term positive factors dominating, medium to long-term downside risks remain significant, with API data indicating an increase of approximately 2.4 million barrels in crude oil inventories, which has somewhat suppressed bullish sentiment [2][4] - The global oil inventory is expected to continue rising over the next two years, potentially subjecting the current rebound to long-term inventory pressure tests [2][4] - Investors are advised to remain rational, as geopolitical premiums offer short-term trading opportunities, but attention should be paid to the inventory growth curve before 2026 to mitigate risks of price corrections during seasonal demand declines [2][4]