能源化工日报 2026-03-02 2026/03/02 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.20 元/桶，涨幅 0.45%，报 488.40 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 29.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.97%，报 2960.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 35.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.01%，报 3500.00 元/吨。 橡胶、聚酯、PVC 分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 0.12 百万桶至 11.02 百万桶，环比累库 1.07%； 柴油库存环比累库 0.66 百万桶至 16.64 百万桶，环比累库 4.15%；燃料油库存环比去库 1.54 百万桶至 5.46 百万桶，环比去库 21.96%；石脑油环比去库 0.29 百万桶至 5.55 百万桶，环 比去库 4.93%；航空煤油环比去库 0.95 百万桶至 6.59 百万桶，环比去库 12.55%；总体成品 油环比去库 1.99 百万桶至 45.27 百万桶，环比去库 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and the performance of strategic metals is expected to be promising. The ongoing risks from the Israel-Iran conflict are significant, and the safe-haven attributes of precious metals are likely to provide substantial support for their prices. In the industrial metals sector, there was a significant accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories during the Spring Festival. As downstream production resumes, the demand during the peak season will be tested, with a focus on the inventory reduction speed post-holiday, which will determine the strength of industrial product prices [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Geopolitical premiums are increasing, and strategic metals are expected to perform well. The recent military actions between the US and Israel against Iran have led to a halt in oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, which may elevate inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. The ongoing conflict poses uncontrollable risks, supporting precious metal prices. In the industrial metals sector, significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be tested as production resumes [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, ranking second among all industries [27][19]. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) [4] 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are supported by rising geopolitical premiums. As of February 27, SHFE gold rose by 3.41% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 4.12% to 5,280.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold decreased slightly, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces [14][30][57] 4. Copper - Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton on SHFE as of February 27. The supply side remains tight, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The focus is on the inventory reduction speed as production resumes [17][28][72] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton on SHFE. Supply concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions, which may support aluminum prices. The operating rate for aluminum processing has recovered, and inventory levels have increased significantly [16][87][83]

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有色周报：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现 可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现可期。伊以冲突爆发后，继续升温的不可控风 险仍然较大，避险属性预期对贵金属价格将形成明显支撑。工业金属方面，春节期间铜 铝库存大幅累积，随着下游进入复工复产，旺季需求成色将迎来检验，重点关注节后复 工的去库速度，将决定节后工业品价格强度。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - During the Spring Festival holiday, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply. Affected by the news that OPEC might continue to increase production in April and the Iran-US negotiation agreement, Brent crude oil fell to around $66 per barrel on the 17th. Subsequently, with the escalation of the Iran-US situation, the gap between the red lines of the two sides was extremely large, and the war state between the two sides was imminent. Crude oil prices rose significantly, and Brent crude oil once rose to around $72 per barrel. The fundamental changes during the holiday were neutral, with the IEA monthly report being bearish, EIA inventory data being bullish, and OPEC supply policy being bearish. The core contradiction of oil price fluctuations still lies in geopolitical premiums. The latest report indicates that the US may launch a military strike against Iran on February 23rd or 24th. Geopolitical situations have a significant impact on absolute prices. If a full-scale attack occurs, the absolute price may have a large short - term pulse space. If there is no major supply interruption, the fundamental valuation is still around $60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to risk management [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - WTI prices changed from $62.84 on February 12th to $65.21 on February 26th, a decrease of $0.21. Brent prices changed from $67.52 to $70.75, a decrease of $0.10. Dubai prices changed from $66.82 to $68.34, an increase of $0.02 [3] - SC prices are not shown on February 12th, and Oman prices changed from $65.97 to $70.44, an increase of $0.80. The difference between SC and Brent changed from 1.13 to - 0.89, a decrease of 0.48 [3] - Japanese naphtha CFR data is not available on February 26th. Singapore fuel oil 380CST changed from 15.05 to 5.4, an increase of 0.8. The difference between Singapore 380 and Brent changed from - 81.38 to - 99.94, an increase of 4.80 [3] 2. Daily News - US officials said that Trump is expected to convene senior advisors on Friday to discuss the Iranian issue in detail and decide on the course of action against Tehran. The focus of the discussion is not whether an attack will occur, but its scope and potential targets, including nuclear facilities, missile bases, state institutions, and infrastructure [3] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the third - round indirect negotiations between Iran and the US achieved good progress. The technical teams of both sides will hold technical negotiations in Vienna, Austria on March 2nd [4] - According to Axios reporters citing US officials, the nuclear negotiations with Iran in Geneva have made positive progress [4] 3. Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 20th was 1142.7 million barrels, with an expected value of 125 million barrels and a previous value of - 60.9 million barrels. API gasoline inventory was - 153.5 million barrels, with an expected value of - 59.1 million barrels and a previous value of - 31.2 million barrels. API refined oil inventory was - 277.1 million barrels, with an expected value of - 190 million barrels and a previous value of - 156.7 million barrels [4] - EIA report: US crude oil exports decreased by 27.7 million barrels per day to 431.3 million barrels per day in the week ending February 20th. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 1370.2 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 1598.9 million barrels to 436 million barrels, an increase of 3.81%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2139.1 million barrels per day, a 5.38% increase compared to the same period last year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels. US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 665.9 million barrels per day, an increase of 13.5 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [4][5]

能源化工日报 2026-02-27 2026/02/27 原油 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.00 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 483.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 53.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.81%，报 2987.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 4.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.12%，报 3460.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 15.99 百万桶至 435.80 百万桶，环比累库 3.81%；SPR 补库 0.00 百万桶至 415.44 百万桶，环比补库 0.00%；汽油库存去库 1.01 百万桶 至 254.83 百万桶，环比去库 0.40%；柴油库存累库 0.25 百万桶至 120.35 百万桶，环比累库 0.21%；燃料油库存去库 0.11 百万桶至 23.04 百万桶，环比去库 0.46%；航空煤油库存去库 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xusha ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-27 美伊和谈导致油价延续⾼波动，化⼯下 游稳步复⼯ 原油价格在亚洲盘时间段下跌，因彭博报道，美伊核谈判的调解方表 示，目前讨论进展积极，谈判将于周四晚些时候继续进行。美伊正在日内 瓦举行第三轮核谈判，距离特朗普总统设定的达成协议最后期限仅剩几 天。作为调解方的阿曼外交大臣表示，双方交流了"富有创意且积极的想 法"。原油市场本身略显疲态，Brent近月价差在周四盘中一度走弱至每 桶-3美分，短暂进入contango结构，同一指标在上周某一时点曾高达每桶 +69美分；这是自2024年以来，该价差首次在非到期日进入contango结 构。（以上信息来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工跟随原油进入弱势调整格局中，烯烃表现明显弱于芳烃。化工期 货主力合约小幅下跌后，各品种的基差大都开始走强，现货表现强于期 货。从周度开工看，聚酯和织造开工从春节前的77.6%、0分别升至79. 7%、12%，产业链下游稳步复工中（数据来源CCF）。原料开工本身看，PT A和苯乙烯周度开工略有攀升，PP和PE开工周度环比下滑，整体变动不 大，春季 ...

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-26 盘面震荡运行，关注美伊谈判进展 市场分析 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电终端需求不及预期、欧佩克增产幅度超预期、船燃 需求不及预期 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.34%，报2943元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.18%，报3436 元/吨。 在春节假期期间外盘涨幅兑现后，当前市场主要影响因素仍在地缘层面，美国和伊朗新一轮谈判定于26日在瑞士 日内瓦举行，谈判进展的顺利与否将直接影响原油地缘溢价的方向，从而对包括燃料油在内的能化商品造成扰动， 需要密切关注。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油在市场结构连续走强后，春节假期期间出现一定调整。目前看在地缘冲突 可控的前提下，市场并无短缺预期，只是亚太地区较强的Back结构以及高运费会阶段性抑制跨区套利船货。此外， 燃料油下游炼厂端与船燃端需求相对坚挺，国内地方炼厂会增加燃料油采购来填补委内瑞拉重油的缺口，因此高 硫油市场下方支撑仍存。 低硫燃料油方面，1月份科威特与尼日利亚出口大增导致局部供应压力攀升，市场承压运行，但随着Dangote炼厂 RFCC装置重启，科威特供应从高点回落， ...

原油成品油早报 ·美国国务卿鲁比奥：伊朗长期以来一直对美国构成非常严重的威胁。伊朗目前没有进行铀浓缩，但他们正试图达到最 终能够进行铀浓缩的状态。 ·美特使要求伊朗核协议永久有效 金十数据2月26日讯，一名美国官员及另外两名消息人士称，美国特使威特科夫周二在一场私人聚会上表示，特朗普政 府要求伊朗同意，任何未来的核协议都将无限期生效。根据2015年达成、后被特朗普废除的协议，对伊朗核项目的大部 分限制将在签署后8年至25年间逐步到期。排除此类"日落条款"将加强该协议，并使特朗普更容易在国内将其推销为对 奥巴马政策的升级加以推销。威特科夫表示："我们与伊朗人谈判的前提是不存在日落条款。无论是否达成协议，我们 的前提是：你们必须在余生中都遵守规矩。"威特科夫还表示，目前美伊谈判聚焦于核问题，但如果达成协议，特朗普 政府希望就伊朗的导弹计划及其对代理武装组织的支持展开后续谈判。届时美国希望该地区其他国家也参与谈判。威特 科夫称，在当前核谈判中，两个关键问题是伊朗铀浓缩能力以及其现有浓缩铀库存的处理。 ·伊朗局势紧张之际，沙特石油出口飙升至三年高点 金十数据2月25日讯，本月，沙特阿拉伯从其港口出口的石油量有望达到近 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-26 原油震荡等待局势明朗，化⼯端本⾝⽭ 盾较⼩横盘整理 随着美伊谈判的临近，原油和金融市场严阵以待，权衡谈判达成的可 能性。美伊下一轮谈判定于周四在日内瓦举行，为形成威慑力，美国已下 令在中东展开2003年第二次海湾战争以来规模最大的军事集结，包括部署 两艘航空母舰。另一个对原油市场至关重要的事件是于周末举行的OPEC+ 会议，该组织在2026年一季度暂停了增产计划，二季度是否恢复增产、增 产幅度如何，都会对原油市场带来影响。与此同时，斯洛伐克表示，从俄 罗斯运送原油经过乌克兰的友谊管道仍处于关停状态。（以上信息来自彭 博终端） 板块逻辑： 原油等待美伊谈判进展，化工进入震荡格局。从化工品各个链条基本 面看，聚酯链条供需较为健康，聚烯烃依旧有较大的供应压力，尤其是P E。纯苯-苯乙烯、氯碱则以震荡为主。聚酯原料普遍因为3-5月份的春季 检修而去库，因为2025年下半年较长时间的亏损，PTA产业链没有因为微 利就加大开工。烯烃的弱势主要在于全球都维持较高产能增速，增速高于 过去五年的均值，当前PE的周产量同比攀升到 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 26 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | 行情回顾(美元/桶) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...