投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-26 俄乌和谈进展主导油价，聚烯烃期价创 近年新低 国际原油期货在周二夜盘大幅下滑，彭博报道称乌克兰已同意修订后 的和平协议条款，尽管仍有若干细节问题待敲定。Brent一度下跌2.4%， 随后收复部分失地。美乌官员已在日内瓦展开谈判，美俄代表赴阿布扎比 举行会谈。与此同时，俄罗斯原油海运量在截至11月23日的四周内连续第 五周下滑，10月中旬被制裁以来俄罗斯原油日发货量下滑了53万桶。原油 强现实弱预期的局面延续，关键变量就在于俄乌和谈进展。投资者暂时以 震荡思路对待。 板块逻辑： 原油趋弱，油化工成本下移，其中PP和PE双双创出多年低点。聚烯烃 2025年产能增速均超10%，且检修力度不足，聚烯烃产量持续位于五年同 期最高，刚刚过去的10月两个品种月度产量仍创出了历史纪录新高。PP和 PE超过50%的生产都来自炼厂端，炼油和芳烃的利润尚可，炼厂停车检修 聚烯烃的概率就低。当前PE虽然价格连连下跌，但进口窗口多处于开启及 待开启状态，凸显了PE全球格局的弱势。 原油：地缘溢价摇摆，供应压力延续 沥青：原料供应扰动叠 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-26 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘溢价回落，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于上周末美国公布的 9 月非农就业数据显著差于预期，导致宏观情绪转弱。近期 OPEC 最新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"，供应宽松预期放大。 目前油市偏弱的供 ...

能源化工日报 2025-11-26 2025/11/26 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.00 元/桶，涨幅 0.67%，报 448.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 9.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.36%，报 2491.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 40.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.31%，报 3015.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 1.04 百万桶至 207.48 百万桶，环比累库 0.50%； 汽油商业库存去库 1.52 百万桶至 85.45 百万桶，环比去库 1.75%；柴油商业库存去库 4.06 百 万桶至 91.54 百万桶，环比去库 4.25%；总成品油商业库存去库 5.58 百万桶至 176.99 百万 桶，环比去库 3.06%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-25 俄乌和谈进展影响油⽓，进⼝减量预期 提振甲醇 地缘依旧主导油价波动。此前乌克兰总统泽连斯基的办公厅主任表 示，相关谈判在协调立场方面取得重大进展；美国国务卿也表示，周末在 日内瓦举行的会谈富有成效。市场权衡俄乌和平协议的达成前景。欧洲天 然气期货下跌3%，一年多来首次跌破每兆瓦时30欧元。欧洲防务类股同样 表现不佳。Kpler数据表明，10月下旬以来约有5000万桶俄罗斯原油被囤 积在海上，和平谈判的达成将有助于俄罗斯的原油和成品油供给正常化， 原油将重回疲弱的基本面。关注俄乌和谈的进一步进展。 板块逻辑： 化工周一日盘表现尚可，股市企稳回升对市场情绪有利。甲醇表现最 为亮眼。甲醇12月进口预估减量，其中非伊供应减量明显，部分检修、年 度合约供应结束以及增量发往印度等多重因素影响，集中影响了12月非伊 抵港表现；资讯机构也有报道，伊朗有甲醇企业停车。近两周，内地市场 的强势表现支撑进口货倒流加速，加之浙江另有新下游计划重启备货，共 同助力周一甲醇日盘上涨3%。其他液体化工周度整体累库，纯苯和苯乙烯 当前库存依 ...

能源化工日报 2025-11-25 原油 2025/11/25 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 5.10 元/桶，跌幅 1.13%，报 447.90 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 17.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.67%，报 2512.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 76.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.44%，报 3041.00 元/吨。 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.04 百万桶至 8.14 百万桶，环比去库 0.51%；柴 油库存环比去库 0.78 百万桶至 16.26 百万桶，环比去库 4.60%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.07 百 万桶至 7.04 百万桶，环比累库 1.00%；石脑油环比累库 0.47 百万桶至 5.20 百万桶，环比累 库 9.89%；航空煤油环比去库 0.09 百万桶至 8.61 百万桶，环比去库 1.09%；总体成品油环比 去库 0.38 百万桶至 45.26 百万桶，环比去库 0.84%。 刘 ...

能源化工日报 2025-11-24 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素研究员 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 甲醇 2025/11/24 甲醇 【行情资讯】 太仓价格维稳，鲁南-5，内蒙+5，盘面 01 合约-12 元，报 2004 元/吨，基差-4。1-5 价差+3， 报-134。 【策略观点】 甲醇盘面延续弱势下跌，目前港口高库存压力仍未见明显缓解，且在 01 合约之前仍难有效去 化，高库存压力持续压制价格以及月间结构。目前从基本面来看，国内产量进一步提升，企业 利润持续走低，到港有所回落，供应 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月21日 张晓秘 Z0003135 | 品种 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | ୧୫32 | 6833 | 2.00 | 0.03% | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6883 | 6883 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6400 | 6434 | -34.00 | -0.53% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6513 | 6532 | -19.00 | -0.29% | | | L15价差 | -48 | -50 | 2.00 | 4.00% | | | PP15价差 | -113 | -98 | -15.00 | -15.31% | 元/吨 | | LP01价差 | 435 | 399 | 36.00 | -9.02% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6380 | 6400 | -20.00 | -0.31% | | | 华北LLD ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness when prices fall [2]. - For methanol, the futures market continues to decline weakly. High port inventory pressure persists, with limited destocking before the 01 contract. Supply remains high while demand shows little change. The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline [3]. - For urea, prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, showing relative resilience. Supply - side corporate profits are low, and production has slightly declined but is still high year - on - year. Demand has improved due to agricultural reserves and exports. With export policies and cost support, the downside is limited, and it's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. - For rubber, the start - up load of tire enterprises has decreased, and semi - steel tire export orders have slowed. However, typhoons may increase supply, and the cancellation of warehouse receipts may benefit the January contract. Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. - For PVC, corporate profits are at a low level, supply is high with new installations coming online, and demand is weak both domestically and in exports. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices are stable, while styrene prices are rising. Supply is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to pause production growth may support oil prices. PE valuation has limited downside, but high warehouse receipts suppress the market. With inventory reduction and seasonal demand, prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. - For polypropylene, cost - side supply may increase, and supply pressure remains high. Although demand has rebounded seasonally, overall inventory pressure is high. Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. - For PX, the load is high, but downstream PTA maintenance is frequent, leading to expected inventory accumulation in November. However, there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand structure, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. - For PTA, supply - side maintenance has increased, but new installations will lead to inventory accumulation in November. Demand may remain high, but there is limited room for improvement. PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic and overseas installations are operating at high loads, imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Valuation is relatively low, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 7.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.66% decline, at 455.50 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.43 million barrels to 424.16 million barrels, a 0.80% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 410.93 million barrels, a 0.13% increase [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Taicang price increased by 3, Lunan by 5, and Inner Mongolia remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan to 2016 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is trading on the weak - reality logic, and prices may further decline. Be vigilant about price drops [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, while Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 2 yuan to 1665 yuan, with a basis of - 45. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 70 [5]. - **Strategy**: Prices are oscillating and rising from the bottom, with limited downside. It's expected to oscillate and build a bottom, suggesting buying on dips [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: As of November 20, 2025, the start - up load of full - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.57%, down 4.13 percentage points from last week and 2.01 percentage points from the same period last year. The start - up load of semi - steel tires was 72.77%, down 1.60 percentage points from last week and 6.01 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire export orders slowed. Typhoons may increase supply, and 110,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be cancelled on November 15 [10]. - **Strategy**: Arbitrage strategies include going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609 or NR [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 36 yuan to 4456 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4420 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 36. The 1 - 5 spread was - 311. The overall start - up rate was 78.5%, down 2.2%. Factory inventory was 322,000 tons, down 12,000 tons, and social inventory was 1.028 million tons, down 13,000 tons [11]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is poor, and it's advisable to short on rallies in the medium term [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also stable, with a narrowing basis. The spot price of styrene increased, and the futures price also rose, with a strengthening basis. The upstream start - up rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 265,000 tons [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Port inventory is decreasing, and prices may stop falling in the short term [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6835 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6855 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 20 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 83.77%, up 0.89%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 259,000 tons, and trader inventory increased by 50,000 tons [17]. - **Strategy**: Prices may oscillate at a low level [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price was 6400 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 120 yuan/ton, strengthening by 34 yuan. The upstream start - up rate was 77.71%, down 0.68%. Overall inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Prices may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [20]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 40 yuan to 6830 yuan. PX CFR increased by 1 dollar to 833 dollars. The basis was - 22 yuan. The Chinese load was 86.8%, down 3%, and the Asian load was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some installations were shut down or under maintenance [22]. - **Strategy**: There may be inventory accumulation in November, but there is support, and there may be opportunities for valuation increase in the medium term [23]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 16 yuan to 4696 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 4630 yuan. The basis was - 69 yuan. The load was 72.1%, down 3.6%. Some installations were under maintenance, and downstream load increased [24]. - **Strategy**: Supply - side inventory may accumulate in November, and PTA processing fees are under pressure, but it may strengthen when PXN rises in the medium term [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 81 yuan to 3822 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 34 yuan to 3885 yuan. The basis was 32 yuan. The load was 70.7%, down 0.9%. Port inventory increased by 71,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy**: Inventory is accumulating, and it's advisable to short on rallies [28].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-11-21 俄罗斯成品油出⼝创俄乌冲突以来最 低，中国化⼯出⼝整体表现较好 投资者关注美国对俄罗斯Rosneft和Lukoil制裁的后续影响，油价小 幅上涨。当前制裁已经扰乱原油流向，并迫使Lukoil公司为其国际资产寻 找买家。欧盟正探讨更多对俄施压措施，包括限制那些为俄罗斯运输石油 的 "影子油轮船队"提供支持的实体。俄罗斯11月上半月的成品油出口 降至俄乌冲突爆发以来的最低水平。此前美国回溯修订的就业报告显示新 增就业人数超出预期，但失业率亦有所上升，油价因此回吐部分涨幅。原 油仍以震荡思路对待。 板块逻辑： 10月化工进出口数据陆续公布，外需整体表现尚可。以出口占比较大 的聚酯产品为例，2025年10月聚酯产品出口总量在119.8万吨，环比增长 1.26%，同比增长5.74%。与上期相比，长丝同比环比下滑，瓶片出口恢复 增长，而同比增速最高的品种还是涤短。11月19日相关诉方表示印度财政 部未接受商工部的征税裁决，以"无措施、不征税"结案，印度对中国PV C反倾销失败；2025年PVC出口或将突破345万吨，20 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 美国此次对俄罗斯的制裁逐步产生了一些影响。在11月21日制裁生效 前，至少有770万桶与受制裁生产商相关的俄罗斯乌拉尔原油将抵达印度 海岸；印度七家炼油厂中，包括信实工业在内的五家此前曾表示，将自 11月21日后完全停止接收俄罗斯原油。与此同时，从中东运往印度的原油 油轮预订量激增，从中东到亚洲的VLCC运费接近五年高点。成品油市场也 是油价的支撑，欧洲柴油的月差和裂解价差持续走强，柴油裂差升至两年 以来最高。地缘仍是近期油价的主导，投资者以震荡思路对待。 板块逻辑： 柴油裂解价差的走强将引发炼厂逐步减少汽油的收率，从而减少汽油 供给提升汽油的裂解价差，这一点仍会对芳烃带来提振。近期中日关系紧 张，市场关注到日本是我国PX进口的第二大来源国，平均进口13万吨/ 月，占我国PX月度供给总量的比例为3.39%（以9月数据为例），若后期我 国减少从日本的进口量，PX的进口将减量。苯乙烯则受到出口放量的提 振，苯乙烯后期的去库可能略加快。 原油：地缘溢价松动，供应压力延续 沥青：沥青期价弱势震荡 高硫燃油：燃油期价弱势震荡 低硫燃油：成品油走强支撑低硫燃油 甲醇：高库存 ...