能源化工日报 2025-08-26 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/26 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.97 美元，涨幅 1.52%，报 64.74 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.95 美元，涨幅 1.40%，报 68.74 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.40 元，跌幅 0.29%， 报 485.6 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.43 百万桶至 209.84 百万桶，环比去 库 0.21%；汽油商业库存去库 1.51 百万桶至 88.63 百万桶，环比去库 1.68%；柴油商业库存 累库 0.59 百万桶至 105.18 百万桶，环比累库 0.56%；总成品油商业库存去库 0.92 百万桶至 193.81 百万桶，环比去库 0.47%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，且宏观偏空，但当前油价已经出现相对低估，且自身静 态基本面与动态预测仍表现良好。我们维持上周对原油多配的观点，但当前价格已不宜追多， 基 ...

能源化工日报 2025-08-25 原油 2025/08/25 原油早评 能源化工组 行情方面：截至上周五，WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.29 美元，涨幅 0.46%，报 63.77 美元；布伦 特主力原油期货收涨 0.12 美元，涨幅 0.18%，报 67.79 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.30 元， 涨幅 0.47%，报 487 元。 数据方面：欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.03 百万桶至 8.73 百万桶，环比去 库 0.29%；柴油库存环比累库 1.27 百万桶至 15.16 百万桶，环比累库 9.13%；燃料油库存环 比去库 0.11 百万桶至 6.64 百万桶，环比去库 1.60%；石脑油环比去库 0.75 百万桶至 4.97 百 万桶，环比去库 13.07%；航空煤油环比累库 0.17 百万桶至 7.45 百万桶，环比累库 2.27%； 总体成品油环比累库 0.55 百万桶至 42.95 百万桶，环比累库 1.31%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still favorable. It is a good time for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, the current situation is weak, but demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, the current situation is weak, but the downside space is limited due to low corporate profits. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see. Partial closing of the long RU2601 and short RU2509 positions can be considered [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the port inventory may decline from a high level. The styrene price may fluctuate upward following the cost side [15][16] - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate upward, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven decline to South Korean ethylene clearance policy [18] - For polypropylene, there is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [19] - For PX, it is expected to maintain low inventory, with support at the lower end of the valuation but limited upside in the short term. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following the oil price on dips during the peak season [21][22] - For PTA, the supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. Pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy (Crude Oil) - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.34, or 0.54%, to $63.48; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.63, or 0.94%, to $67.67; INE main crude oil futures rose 8.80 yuan, or 1.85%, to 484.7 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory increased by 0.91 million barrels to 15.15 million barrels, a 6.42% increase; diesel inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, a 3.98% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a 6.53% decrease; total refined oil inventory decreased by 0.33 million barrels to 47.89 million barrels, a 0.67% decrease [1] 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 [4] - **Supply**: Coal prices have bottomed out and risen, increasing methanol costs, but coal - to - methanol profits are still at a high level compared to the same period. Domestic production starts are gradually bottoming out and increasing, and overseas plant starts have returned to the same - period high, with imports expected to increase [4] - **Demand**: Most traditional demand sectors have low profits. Olefin profits have improved, but port production starts are low, and demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 21, the 01 contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 24 [6] - **Supply**: Domestic production starts have changed from a decline to an increase. Although corporate profits are still low, they are expected to gradually bottom out and recover. The overall supply is relatively loose [6] - **Demand**: Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production starts have further increased, with high finished product inventories. Exports are progressing steadily, and overall demand is average [6] 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices declined and then fluctuated weakly [8] - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Bulls believe that the weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may help increase rubber production to a limited extent, and the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. Bears think that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact on supply may be less than expected [9] - **Inventory and Production Starts**: As of August 21, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, up 1.47 percentage points from the previous week and 6.25 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 74.38%, up 2.13 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.28 percentage points from the same period last year. As of August 10, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.8 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons or 0.85% from the previous period [10] 3.5 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract fell 4 yuan to 5004 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4740 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 264 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 132 (+5) yuan/ton [13] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall production start of PVC was 80.3%, up 0.9% from the previous period. The downstream demand start was 42.8%, down 0.1% from the previous period. Factory inventory was 32.7 tons (-1), and social inventory was 81.2 tons (+3.5). The supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high [13] 3.6 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of styrene both increased, and the basis strengthened [15] - **Supply and Demand**: The cost side still has support, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward repair space. The supply side has increasing production starts, and the port inventory has been continuously increasing significantly. At the end of the seasonal off - season, the demand side's overall operating rate of three S products has been rising [15][16] 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene increased [18] - **Supply and Demand**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost side has support. The overall inventory is declining from a high level, and the demand side's agricultural film raw material procurement has started, with the overall operating rate stabilizing at a low level [18] 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased [19] - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the production start is expected to gradually recover. The downstream demand operating rate is fluctuating at a low level. There is high inventory pressure in the context of weak supply and demand [19] 3.8 PX, PTA, and MEG 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 114 yuan to 6958 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 17 dollars to 854 dollars [21] - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is at a high level, and there are many unexpected short - term maintenance of downstream PTA. However, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to maintain low inventory [21] 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 82 yuan to 4860 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 120 yuan/ton to 4810 yuan [23] - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load decreased by 4.8% to 71.6%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [23] 3.8.3 MEG - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 4 yuan to 4473 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 4 yuan to 4511 yuan [24] - **Supply and Demand**: The MEG load increased by 6.2% to 73.2%. The downstream load increased by 0.6% to 90%. The port inventory decreased by 0.6 tons to 54.7 tons. The fundamentals are expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is downward pressure on the medium - term valuation [24]

能源化工日报 2025-08-21 原油 能源化工组 2025/08/21 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收涨 0.63 美元，涨幅 1.01%，报 63.14 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 1.09 美元，涨幅 1.65%，报 67.04 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 1.00 元，跌幅 0.21%， 报 475.9 元。 数据方面：美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 6.01 百万桶至 420.68 百万桶， 环比去库 1.41%；SPR 补库 0.22 百万桶至 403.43 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存去库 2.72 百万桶至 223.57 百万桶，环比去库 1.20%；柴油库存累库 2.34 百万桶至 116.03 百万桶，环 比累库 2.06%；燃料油库存累库 0.08 百万桶至 19.81 百万桶，环比累库 0.39%；航空煤油库 存去库 0.45 百万桶至 43.30 百万桶，环比去库 1.02%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the stock market may experience intensified volatility after continuous gains, but the general direction is to go long on dips. The bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term, with interest rates generally trending downward in the long - term. [3][6] - Metal prices show different trends. Copper prices may be strongly volatile in the short - term, aluminum prices may fluctuate, zinc prices have a large downward risk, lead prices have a short - term decline risk, nickel prices have a callback pressure, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. [10][11][13] - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of iron ore, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon all face certain uncertainties and are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment. [25][27][28] - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber prices should be observed neutrally, oil prices have a good left - hand layout opportunity, methanol prices are recommended to be observed, urea prices can be considered for long positions at low levels, and the prices of other chemical products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost. [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of live pigs, eggs, soybean meal, vegetable meal, oils, sugar, and cotton all have different trends and trading strategies, mainly affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies. [56][57][58] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - News: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 15; 152 energy - storage enterprises advocate against involution; the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issue a joint statement on the market fluctuations of stablecoins; the US PPI in July increased significantly compared with the forecast and the previous value. [2] - Basis ratio of stock index futures: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different terms are given. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may be volatile in the short - term, but the general direction is to go long on dips. [3] Treasury Bond - Market: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. [4] - News: The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting and believes there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut; the UK's GDP in the second quarter increased better than expected. [4] - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3.2 billion yuan. [5][6] - Strategy: The economic data in the first half of the year was resilient, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and the interest rate is expected to trend downward in the long - term, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term. [6] Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21. [7] - Market outlook: The US inflation data exceeded expectations, and the Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts were cautious, putting short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, considering factors such as US debt interest payments and government intervention, the Fed is likely to implement further easing, and it is recommended to wait for price corrections to go long. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are given. [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the slowdown of the domestic equity market, the copper price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The copper price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with support from tight raw material supply and pressure from increased supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are given. [10] Aluminum - Market: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of the cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the slowdown of domestic inventory accumulation, the aluminum price first declined and then rebounded. The inventory and basis in the domestic and international markets changed. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support from low domestic inventory and strong external demand, and pressure from weak downstream consumption and unstable trade situations. The reference operating ranges for domestic and LME aluminum are given. [11] Zinc - Market: The zinc price declined on Thursday. The zinc ore is in a loose supply situation, the domestic zinc ingot is in a surplus situation, and the LME market's structural disturbance is gradually receding. The zinc price still has a large downward risk. [12][13] Lead - Market: The lead price declined on Thursday. The lead ore inventory at ports increased in August, the production rates of primary and secondary lead increased, and the social inventory of lead ingots increased again. The downstream consumption is under pressure, and the short - term lead price has a certain decline risk. [14] Nickel - Market: The nickel price declined and adjusted on Thursday. Affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the market's interest rate cut expectations, the non - ferrous metal sector was under pressure. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron market sentiment improved, but the surplus pressure still existed. The refined nickel spot trading was still sluggish. The short - term nickel price may have a callback pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given. [15] Tin - Market: The tin price declined and adjusted on August 15. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end is still under raw material supply pressure in the short - term. The domestic demand is weak, and the overseas demand is strong. The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the reference operating ranges for domestic and LME tin are given. [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - Market: The spot index of lithium carbonate increased, and the futures price also increased slightly. The domestic production of lithium carbonate increased this week, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply improvement is the focus of the market, and it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the right entry point. The reference operating range for the futures contract is given. [18] Alumina - Market: The alumina index declined on August 14. The domestic and overseas ore supply is disturbed, but the alumina production capacity is in an over - supply situation. It is recommended to short at high levels when the short - term market sentiment cools down. The reference operating range for the domestic futures contract is given, and factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies need to be concerned. [19] Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel futures price declined on Thursday. The spot prices in some markets also declined, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased, and the market trading sentiment was not high. The stainless steel market is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. [20][21] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The futures contract of cast aluminum alloy declined on Thursday. The spot price was stable, and the downstream demand was mainly rigid. The inventory increased slightly. The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. [22] Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on Thursday. The export volume decreased slightly this week, and the demand for rebar decreased significantly, while the demand for hot - rolled coil increased. The inventory of both is in a marginal increase state, and the steel price may decline if the demand cannot be effectively repaired. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of terminal demand and the support of cost. [24][25] Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore futures price declined on Thursday. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron water production increased slightly, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased significantly. The iron ore price may be adjusted slightly in the short - term, and the contradiction between high iron water production and weak terminal demand needs to be concerned. [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price of glass was stable, the inventory increased, and the market sentiment cooled down. The glass price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term trend depends on factors such as anti - involution policies and real estate demand. [28] - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash increased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the increase space is limited. [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined on August 14. The market is affected by factors such as anti - involution and supply - side policies, and it is recommended that investment positions wait and see, while hedging positions can choose the right opportunity. The manganese silicon industry is still in an over - supply situation, and the demand for ferrosilicon and the black sector may weaken in the future. [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of industrial silicon increased on Thursday. The supply is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the implementation of anti - involution policies needs to be concerned. [34][35] - Polysilicon: The futures price of polysilicon declined on Thursday. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and the impact of warehouse receipts on the price needs to be concerned. [36][37] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU fluctuated weakly. The long and short sides have different views. The operating rate of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory of natural rubber decreased. The rubber price has risen a lot in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct band - trading operations. [39][40][42] Crude Oil - Market: WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, while INE crude oil price declined. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore increased, and the fuel oil inventory decreased. The oil price is considered to be undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. [43] Methanol - Market: The methanol futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the port inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak. The price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. [44] Urea - Market: The urea futures price declined on August 14. The domestic production increased, the demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizer and export, and the inventory is still at a medium - high level. The urea price is undervalued, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low levels. [45] Styrene - Market: The spot and futures prices of styrene declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost end has support, the BZN spread has room to repair, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate upward with the cost end. [46][47] PVC - Market: The PVC futures price declined on Thursday. The cost end decreased, the production increased, the downstream demand was weak, and the inventory increased. The fundamentals are poor, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] Ethylene Glycol - Market: The ethylene glycol futures price declined on Thursday. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand increased slightly, and the port inventory increased. The valuation is relatively high, and the price may decline in the short - term. [49] PTA - Market: The PTA futures price declined on Thursday. The supply may increase in August, the demand is about to end the off - season, and the inventory may accumulate. The PXN spread has upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX when the peak season demand improves. [50][51] p - Xylene - Market: The p - xylene futures price declined on Thursday. The production increased, the downstream PTA short - term overhaul increased, and the inventory may decrease. The valuation has support at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil in the peak season. [52] Polyethylene - Market: The polyethylene futures price declined. The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance, the cost end has support, the inventory is at a high level, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions. [53] Polypropylene - Market: The polypropylene futures price declined. The production may increase due to the rebound of refining profit, the demand is in the off - season, and the cost end may dominate the market. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly with crude oil in July. [54] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price fluctuated on Thursday. The market is stable, and the price is expected to be stable today. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters, and it is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread opportunity for far - month contracts. [56] Eggs - Market: The egg price was mostly stable on Thursday. The supply is large, and the price in the peak season is weaker than expected. The short - term egg price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds. [57] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The USDA's reduction of the soybean planting area has a positive impact, the import cost of soybeans has increased, the price of rapeseed meal has declined, and the price of soybean meal has increased slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is in a seasonal surplus situation, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to factors such as supply pressure and Sino - US tariffs. [58][59] Oils - Market: The prices of the three major domestic oils declined on Thursday. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, Indonesia has distributed a large amount of biodiesel, and the import of Indian vegetable oil has changed. The oils are supported by policies and low inventory, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view the price fluctuation. [60][61][62] Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The international sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic import supply will increase in the future, and the price is expected to decline. [63] Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated on Thursday. The USDA report is positive, and the Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to domestic cotton. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate at a high level. [64][65][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro environment is bearish, current oil prices are relatively undervalued. The static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, its valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - For urea, domestic demand is currently weak, but its overall valuation is low and the room for further decline is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to going long at low prices and wait for potential positive factors [6] - For rubber, the price has risen recently. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] - For PVC, the supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair. After the high - level port inventory is depleted, the styrene price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upwards [15][16] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory depletion. The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions [18] - For polypropylene, the cost side may dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] - For PX, it is expected to continue de - stocking, and the valuation has support at the bottom, but the upside is limited in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following crude oil after the peak season arrives [21][22] - For PTA, it is expected to continue to build inventory, and the processing fee has limited room for operation. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long following PX after the downstream performance improves in the peak season [23] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals will change from strong to weak, and the short - term valuation is under downward pressure [24] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.54% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.37, a 0.56% decline, at $65.74; INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.70 yuan, a 1.15% decline, at 489.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.04 million barrels to 426.70 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; SPR replenished 0.23 million barrels to 403.20 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 0.79 million barrels to 226.29 million barrels, a 0.35% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.71 million barrels to 113.69 million barrels, a 0.63% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.07 million barrels to 19.73 million barrels, a 0.33% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.62 million barrels to 43.74 million barrels, a 1.40% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 17 yuan/ton to 2479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 104 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has declined again, but corporate profits remain high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventories are rising due to faster unloading and shutdown of port MTO plants. Inland inventories are low due to olefin procurement support. The valuation is high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 13, the 01 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1747 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [6] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continues to decline, and corporate profits are at a low level but are expected to bottom out. Overall supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending, and the market is entering the off - season. Future demand will mainly come from compound fertilizers and exports. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory depletion is slow [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated and consolidated [9] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, there is a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and Chinese demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro expectations are uncertain, demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [10] - **Industry Situation**: As of August 7, 2025, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from the previous year. Domestic sales were slow, but exports were good. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from the previous year. Semi - steel tire factories had inventory pressure [11] - **Inventory**: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.289 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons from the previous period, a 0.4% decline. The total inventory of dark rubber was 804,000 tons, a 0.13% decrease, and the total inventory of light rubber was 485,000 tons, a 0.8% decrease. As of August 11, 2025, the inventory in Qingdao was 487,200 (- 14,000) tons [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 for band trading [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 31 yuan to 5016 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4900 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (+ 21) yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 151 (- 5) yuan/ton [13] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 79.5%, up 2.6%. The demand - side downstream production rate was 42.9%, up 0.8%. Factory inventory was 337,000 tons (- 8000 tons), and social inventory was 777,000 tons (+ 54,000 tons). Corporate comprehensive profits reached a high for the year, and the valuation was under pressure. Production was at a five - year high, and downstream production was at a five - year low. Indian anti - dumping policies were extended [13] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both fell, and the basis remained unchanged [15] - **Analysis**: The macro market sentiment was positive, and there was still support on the cost side. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level for the same period and had a large upward repair space. The production rate of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the supply was still abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the styrene production rate continued to rise. Port inventory decreased significantly. Demand in the low - season was weak [15][16] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices fell [18] - **Analysis**: The market was expecting favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and there was still support on the cost side. Spot prices remained unchanged, and the valuation had limited downward space. Trader inventory was at a high level, and the support for prices was weakening. Demand was in the seasonal off - season, and the production rate of agricultural film orders was low. There was a plan to put 1.1 million tons of production capacity into operation in August [18] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [19] - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the production rate was expected to recover. Downstream production rates were seasonally declining. Only 450,000 tons of planned production capacity was to be put into operation in August. In the context of weak supply and demand, the cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [19] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 48 yuan to 6784 yuan, and PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 831 dollars, with a basis of 114 (+ 81) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 (- 20) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: The Chinese production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; the Asian production rate was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In August, South Korean PX exports to China decreased year - on - year. June - end inventory decreased month - on - month. The PXN was $264 (- 3), and the naphtha crack spread was $85 (+ 6) [21][22] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4692 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4695 yuan, with a basis of - 13 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 34 (0) yuan [23] - **Analysis**: The PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some plants had load adjustments. The downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased in August. Spot and futures processing fees increased. New PTA plants were put into operation, but demand from the terminal and polyester sectors was weak [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 26 yuan to 4406 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 8 yuan to 4494 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) yuan and a 9 - 1 spread of - 50 (- 4) yuan [24] - **Analysis**: The overall production rate was 68.4%, down 0.2%. The production rate of synthetic gas - based plants increased, while that of ethylene - based plants decreased. Some domestic and overseas plants had load adjustments. Downstream production rates were recovering from the off - season but were still at a low level. Import arrivals were expected to be 141,000 tons, and port inventory increased by 37,000 tons [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern. Supply - side factors indicate that the incident at Russian refineries is only a short - term disturbance, while South American production increases and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries strengthen the expectation of a loose supply. Demand - side factors are suppressed by the weakening of China's refining demand, the peak of global seasonal demand, and the slowdown of bio - fuel substitution. Without unexpected production cuts, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the SC main contract slightly declined by 0.08% to 489.4 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent rebounded by 1.03% and 0.59% respectively. The premium of domestic futures relative to foreign markets narrowed, with the SC - Brent spread narrowing from 1.87 to 1.43 dollars/barrel (a 23.53% decline) and the SC - WTI spread dropping from 4.84 to 4.14 dollars/barrel (a 14.46% decline). The SC near - month contract strengthened, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened to 9.8 yuan/barrel (a 13.95% increase) [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may lead to a local supply contraction, but strong South American production and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries (such as Iran and Venezuela) weaken the geopolitical premium, and medium - term supply pressure still exists [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: In early August, China's spot orders for gasoline and diesel decreased by 22.87% month - on - month, and transaction prices declined. UBS expects global oil demand to peak in August and then decline, and the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy reduces the elasticity of diesel substitution demand in the next half - year [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: UBS warns that future inventories may increase, and combined with the recent oil price correction and the spot discount structure, it shows that the market's expectation of inventory accumulation is taking shape. The decline in China's refinery procurement intention further intensifies inventory pressure [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The current crude oil market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Without unexpected production cuts by OPEC+ to hedge, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SC futures price slightly decreased, WTI and Brent futures prices increased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Some spreads narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing inventory increased. The U.S. refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products changed. Some spreads widened, and some Platts prices decreased [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: UBS expects oil prices to fall below previous expectations due to strong South American oil production, the supply resilience of sanctioned countries, and the expectation of future inventory increases. UBS also expects OPEC+ to suspend its production adjustment unless there is a larger and continuous unexpected supply disruption [10]. - **Demand**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may affect supply. Global oil demand is expected to peak in August and then decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is delayed, and China's gasoline and diesel orders decreased in early August, indicating weakening demand [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the crude oil and fuel oil industries, including price, production, inventory, and operating rate data, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and iFinD [12][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will gain upward space [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.47 dollars, a 0.74% decline, to 63.35 dollars; Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.09 dollars, a 0.14% decline, to 66.32 dollars; INE main crude oil futures fell 11.20 yuan, a 2.24% decline, to 489.8 yuan [1] - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 9.39 million barrels, a 3.85% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.25 million barrels to 13.16 million barrels, a 1.97% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 6.55 million barrels, a 5.20% increase; naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels to 4.96 million barrels, a 6.13% decline; aviation kerosene increased by 0.31 million barrels to 6.79 million barrels, a 4.74% increase; total refined oil increased by 0.19 million barrels to 40.85 million barrels, a 0.46% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2383 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production resumed its decline, but enterprise profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory accumulation accelerated due to faster unloading and MTO device shutdowns. Inland inventory decreased due to olefin procurement, with less pressure. Methanol valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1728 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [5] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continued to decline, and enterprise profits were at a low level but expected to bottom out and rebound. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is increasing, and future demand will focus on compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [7] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe in seasonal, demand, and production - reduction expectations; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and less - than - expected production reduction. As of August 7, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from last year. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from last year. As of August 3, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 tons, a 0.4% decline [7][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach and focus on quick trades. Consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [8] PVC - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PVC09 contract fell 53 yuan to 4993 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4890 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 103 (+ 33) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 140 (- 14) yuan/ton [9] - **Analysis**: Cost remained stable, production rate increased to 79.5%, downstream production rate was 42.9%. Factory inventory was 33.7 (- 0.8) tons, and social inventory was 77.7 (+ 5.4) tons. Enterprise profits reached a high for the year, with high valuation pressure. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the short - term outlook is poor. Observe whether exports can reverse the inventory situation [9] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level for the same period, with room for upward correction [11] - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment was positive, and cost support remained. Pure benzene production decreased slightly, and supply was still abundant. Styrene production continued to increase, and port inventory decreased significantly. Demand from the three S industries was in the off - season. After inventory reduction, the price may follow the cost trend [11][12] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in Q3, and cost support remains [14] - **Analysis**: Spot prices fell, and PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventory is high, and demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. In August, there is a 110 - ton production capacity plan. The price will be determined by the cost and supply [14] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, and production is expected to increase [15] - **Analysis**: Demand is in the off - season. In August, there is a 45 - ton production capacity plan. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price will be dominated by cost and is expected to follow the oil price [15] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PX09 contract fell 30 yuan to 6726 yuan, the PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 831 dollars, and the basis was 111 (- 41) yuan, with a 9 - 1 spread of 50 (+ 4) yuan [17] - **Analysis**: China's PX production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; Asia's was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had production rate adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In July, South Korea's PX exports to China increased by 3.4 tons year - on - year. Inventory decreased by 21 tons in June. PX production remains high, and downstream PTA has short - term maintenance. PX inventory is expected to continue to decline, and valuation has support [17][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PTA09 contract fell 4 yuan to 4684 yuan, the East China spot price fell 20 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 18 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+ 18) yuan [20] - **Analysis**: PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some devices had production rate adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased by 3.5 tons on August 1. PTA processing fees have limited space, and future demand depends on order improvement [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the EG09 contract fell 12 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4465 yuan, the basis was 75 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 4) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: Supply decreased to 68.4%, with some device adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Valuation is relatively high, and the short - term outlook is weak [21]

Core Viewpoint - The current oil market is experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical premiums and supply-demand imbalances, with bearish sentiment increasing as summer demand ends, and potential further pressure on oil prices if tariff stalemates or supply surpluses worsen [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The oil market is in a phase of soft power consolidation, relying on the reactivation of geopolitical premiums, while hard power remains unchanged, leading to continued volatility [1][2]. - Geopolitical events, such as attacks by Houthi forces on commercial ships, inject risk premiums into oil prices, but do not result in actual supply disruptions, with OPEC's idle capacity (approximately 5 million barrels per day) still able to buffer risks [2][3]. - The oil price fluctuation range (e.g., NY crude at $58-$72 per barrel) is driven by environmental adaptability, reflecting market adjustments to geopolitical conflicts and policy risks [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Non-OPEC countries are increasing supply significantly (e.g., Brazil and Iraq adding 450,000 barrels per day), outpacing demand growth, with potential daily surpluses reaching 950,000 barrels by 2025 [3]. - The end of summer demand has exacerbated bearish sentiment, with consumption weakening post-peak travel season and compounded by U.S. tariff increases, leading to a decline in oil prices of over 7% since August [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and supply surpluses may trigger further declines in oil prices, with daily demand potentially reduced by 150,000 to 200,000 barrels due to suppressed global trade activities [2][3].