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AI终局之战:美国目前赢了技术,但中国会赢下未来?
虎嗅APP· 2025-09-13 03:24
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing competition between China and the United States in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), highlighting China's strategic use of an "open-source strategy" to potentially disrupt Western AI business models and gain a competitive edge in the future [4][5]. Group 1: US and China's AI Landscape - The US holds a significant advantage in AI technology, particularly in private sector innovation, cutting-edge research, and advanced computing infrastructure, with 40 out of the top 50 AI models globally developed by American institutions [9]. - China excels in the large-scale deployment of AI across various sectors, leading in AI-related publications and patents, particularly in computer vision and natural language processing [4][10]. - China's industrial robot market share increased from 51% in 2023 to 54% in 2024, showcasing its dominance in AI application scenarios [13]. Group 2: Open Source Strategy - China's open-source strategy aims to undermine traditional software profit models by offering high-performance AI models for free, thereby reducing the willingness of users to pay for premium services [21][23]. - The open-source models developed by Chinese companies are rapidly approaching state-of-the-art performance, making them highly competitive against Western counterparts [20][21]. - This strategy not only democratizes access to AI but also positions China to control the hardware ecosystem needed to run these models, as global developers will require robust hardware solutions [23][25]. Group 3: Hardware as a Strategic Resource - The article posits that the AI era has reversed the traditional logic where software was scarce and valuable; now, hardware is becoming the critical resource due to the high demand for advanced AI capabilities [30][34]. - China's manufacturing capabilities and ecosystem allow it to produce hardware that is well-suited for its open-source AI models, creating a strong synergy between software and hardware [25][34]. - The demand for complex hardware, such as robots and AI chips, is expected to rise exponentially, establishing a significant barrier to entry for competitors [33][34]. Group 4: Future Implications - The article suggests that while China faces challenges, such as reliance on high-precision components and potential Western sanctions, it is exploring multiple strategies to enhance its resilience in the AI landscape [36][38]. - The ability to integrate and expand technology across industries will be crucial for long-term economic power, as highlighted by China's current dominance in electric vehicles and industrial robots [39]. - The competition may lead to a fundamental restructuring of the global technology value chain, with China potentially establishing a non-Western AI ecosystem that could redefine global standards and practices [42][43].