海外科技 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% Wind 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《春节成为 C 端 AI 全民普及拐点，国 产大模型跻身全球第一梯队—行业周 报》-2026.2.22 《AI 入口竞争加剧，关注 Moltbot 带 动的生态机会—行业周报》-2026.2.1 《RoboX 进展顺利，家用机器人新品 密集亮相—行业周报》-2026.1.25 国内 BC 端 AI 生态逐步进入加速节点，OpenAI 完 成全球 AI 领域迄今规模最大单笔融资 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | 荀月（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | zhangke1@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790523070001 | 证书编号：S0790524100001 | 国内：B/C 市场双轮驱动，国内 AI 市场或进入加速拐点 B 端/Agent 端：根据 O ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the AI sector during the Spring Festival, with major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent achieving significant user engagement and interaction through their AI applications [1][8] - The report discusses the advancements in autonomous driving, including legislative support in the US and significant developments from companies like Tesla and Waymo, indicating a growing market for self-driving technology [2][9] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration is expected to impact trade dynamics significantly, affecting various sectors [3][10] Recent Key Events - ByteDance's AI model generated over 50 million new year avatars and achieved 19 billion interactions during the Spring Festival, showcasing its strong user engagement [1][8] - Alibaba's "Qianwen" app facilitated nearly 200 million orders during the holiday, with a notable user base of older adults successfully utilizing the service [1][8] - Tencent's user engagement metrics reached new highs, with over 50 million daily active users during the Spring Festival, reflecting the effectiveness of its promotional activities [1][8] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index fell from 27,387 points at the end of January to 26,381 points by February 26, marking a decline of 3.7% [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a more significant drop of 10.6% during the same period [11] - Net inflows from southbound trading reached 75.6 billion HKD in February, indicating a positive trend in capital movement [12] Current Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies such as Beike-W, China Qinfa, and Power Development, which are expected to perform well in the current market [21] - Consider companies benefiting from the adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, like Leshushi, which is positioned for growth in the African hygiene products market [21] - Internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent are recommended due to their advancements in AI and strong market positions [21] Company-Specific Insights - Beike-W (2423.HK) is positioned as a leader in the real estate brokerage sector, with expected net profits of 37.1 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth trajectory despite market challenges [22][24] - China Qinfa (0866.HK) is transitioning away from coal operations in Shanxi and focusing on its growing Indonesian coal business, with projected profits of 6.1 billion CNY by 2026 [25][26] - Leshushi (2698.HK) is a leading player in the African hygiene products market, with a projected net profit growth of 18.5% in 2025, driven by increasing market penetration [35][36] - Alibaba (9988.HK) is enhancing its AI capabilities with the launch of the Qwen3.5 model, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth across its platforms [39][40] - Tencent (0700.HK) is experiencing strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments, with a projected revenue increase to 7,530 billion CNY by 2025 [44][46]

广州市文化广电旅游局联合中国电信推出"AI游广州"小助手，依托DeepSeek大模型技术，为来穗游客提供智能化、个性化文旅服务。其中，"AI避高峰"功 能成为今年春节假期的一大亮点，游客可实时查看广州市5A和4A景区热力图，并获取未来一小时的客流预测，有助于科学规划行程，错峰出行，提升游 览舒适度。 （记者 陈晓晟）马年春节，9天超长假期激发全民出游热情，全国文旅市场持续火爆。多家在线旅游平台的数据显示，今年春节假期旅游订单量与人均消 费双双增长，假期出游高峰全国知名景区"一票难求"，周边游、长线游、家庭亲子游等旅游消费亮点纷呈。今年春节文旅行业"科技感"引人入胜，AI规 划、AI订票、AI点餐、AI导览……AI正快速融入文旅消费场景，"科技+文旅"打造十足"科技范"。 从人脑到AI智能体，旅游规划进阶 2026年春节，旅游规划方式发生改变。面对复杂行程规划需求，人工智能正快速融入旅行消费场景。1月19日，飞猪发布的《2026年春节假期出游风向 标》显示，近一周，其平台AI助手处理的春节相关咨询量环比增长超十倍，在航班选择、酒店筛选、行程优化等方面为旅客提供高效决策支持。 AI行程规划的核心优势在于它能实时处 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Weibo's significant role as a marketing platform for AI models during the 2026 Spring Festival, with over 371 trending topics related to AI models and a total reading volume of 12.7 billion [1] - The interaction volume on Weibo reached nearly 26.9 million, with specific AI models like Qianwen, Doubao, and Yuanbao attracting users through red envelope activities, enhancing platform traffic and user engagement [1] - Doubao's collaboration with the Spring Festival Gala resulted in a total interaction of 1.9 billion on New Year's Eve, while the Qianwen app achieved the top position on the Apple free download chart [1] Group 2 - Recent stock performance of Weibo shows notable volatility, with a 4.13% increase on February 23, reaching 80.60 HKD, followed by a decline to 79.25 HKD by February 27, reflecting a cumulative fluctuation of 2.39% [2] - In the same period, Weibo's US stock price decreased by 1.67%, closing at 10.02 USD on February 27, with trading volumes of approximately 4.488 billion HKD in Hong Kong and about 35.4 million USD in the US [2] - The stock price movements are influenced by overall market sentiment, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.95% and the Nasdaq Index falling by 0.87% during the same timeframe [2]

中经记者 李立 上海报道 马年春节最大的不同之一，无疑是AI从"新玩具"真实变身生活"小助理"。 春节期间，大厂撒下80亿元AI红包。 互联网大厂狂撒红包大战春节档，AI的可用性正在变得具体：AI帮你点外卖、买电影票、规划行程， 搜优惠券；上亿人用AI写拜年祝福、制作图片、视频。 字节跳动率先抢下春晚合作席位，豆包深度参与央视春晚互动，发出数亿元红包和礼品；腾讯元宝准备 了10亿元现金红包激励与全新的AI社交功能 "元宝派" 迎战；阿里巴巴则抢在春晚开场前，耗资30亿元 推出AI助手"千问"请客计划。 阿里、腾讯、字节、百度、京东等投入超80亿元发动春节AI"红包大战"。各方日前公布战报：阿里宣 布，春节期间用户在千问上"一句话下单"近2亿次，全国平均每10人就有1人在千问下单；字节跳动称， 除夕当天，豆包AI互动总次数达到19亿次；腾讯宣布，元宝日活跃用户（DAU）超5000万，月活跃用 户（MAU）已达1.14亿。 热闹的抢红包过后，用户热情退潮也很快。上海的周女士发现大年初一过后，群里分享红包链接突然变 少了。"这种红包社交主要集中在关系比较近的朋友和家人，热闹了一轮也就结束了，没有跨界到工作 社交。" ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of significant cash subsidies by major internet companies on user engagement and retention for AI applications during the Chinese New Year period. Group 1: User Engagement and Subsidies - Major internet companies invested over 100 billion RMB in cash subsidies during the Spring Festival to attract users to their AI applications [10][21]. - At the peak of the subsidies, ByteDance's Doubao had 140 million daily active users (DAU), Alibaba's Qianwen had 73 million, and Tencent's Yuanbao had 40 million [21]. - However, after the subsidies ceased, user engagement dropped sharply, with Yuanbao returning to pre-subsidy levels and Qianwen experiencing a smaller decline due to ongoing but reduced subsidies [10][21]. Group 2: User Retention Challenges - Despite the initial surge in user numbers, the retention of these users is contingent on the product's ability to meet user needs, as evidenced by the lower average usage time of AI applications compared to established platforms like WeChat and Douyin [22][23]. - The average usage time for Doubao, Yuanbao, and Qianwen during the Spring Festival was only around 10 minutes, significantly lower than the 2 hours for WeChat and Douyin [22][23]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among AI companies intensified during the Spring Festival, with firms releasing new models and increasing application updates to capture market share [5][22]. - Companies are aware that the spike in daily active users is temporary and are focused on maintaining a competitive edge rather than expecting a permanent transformation from a single promotional event [23].

没上市的Kimi刷屏了。 Anthropic在2月24日发文称遭到来自中国的"蒸馏攻击"，点了三家公司的名，Kimi赫然在列；OpenRouter春节期间token调用量周榜，Kimi 2.5排第二； 而 在各路大谈特谈 O pen C law风口的帖子下面， Kimi C law更以"性价比"优势被大批网友追帖提及； 此前，Kimi还在不到2个月时间内完成了12亿美元的融 资，估值超百亿美元。 这个融资规模相当于刚刚完成港股IPO的Minimax和智谱的融资金额之和。 但人家两个上市40多天涨了5倍，杨植麟和他背后的资本能不着急？ "不以上市为目的"前面应该有个"短期"的限定。 杨植麟 在2025 年 末内部信，虽然又谈到到"不着急上市"，但是， 三大战略 又 无一不含着对上市的部署。 要"追平世界前沿模型"，是因为现在K2.5没有比Minimax M2.5和GLM-5有明显优势。所以， 一切都指望K3了，要求具备"其他模型没有定义过的能力",帮 助"营收规模实现数量级增长"。 2026 Kimi-K2.5技术报告 Kimi C law 不上市可以闷声大发财，要上市则不得不造势。 不得不承认，Minimax ...

Core Insights - The AI competition during the recent Spring Festival has significantly transformed social interactions, with major companies investing heavily to capture market share and educate users about AI [1][2][3] - The total investment from major players like Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance, and Baidu exceeded 5 billion yuan, surpassing previous years' spending on similar promotional activities [1][2] Group 1: User Engagement and Market Dynamics - The engagement on social media platforms surged, with over 371 trending topics related to AI models on Weibo, accumulating 12.7 billion views and nearly 26.9 million interactions during the festival [1] - The rapid adoption of AI applications was evident, with significant increases in app downloads and user activity, such as the "Yuanbao" app reaching a peak of 1.2 billion in WeChat index within hours of its launch [3][5] - The competition among major players led to a dramatic increase in daily active users (DAU), with "Doubao" achieving 145 million, "Qianwen" at 73.5 million, and "Yuanbao" at 40.5 million during the festival [11] Group 2: Competitive Strategies and Outcomes - Companies aimed to replicate the success of past mobile payment wars by heavily subsidizing user acquisition, but the challenge remains whether these users will continue to engage post-subsidy [2][21] - "Qianwen" emerged as a dark horse, experiencing a 940% increase in user participation after launching its "Spring Festival Treat Plan," which significantly boosted its DAU [15][16] - "Doubao" maintained its lead due to effective marketing strategies, leveraging its parent company ByteDance's ecosystem for user acquisition and retention [15][16] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The AI industry is witnessing a clear bifurcation, with large companies focusing on user engagement and ecosystem integration, while smaller firms concentrate on technological advancements and B2B services [22][23] - The competition is expected to shift from casual interactions to solving real user needs, as companies like "Qianwen" and "Antifor" integrate AI into practical applications like e-commerce and health services [23][25] - The high operational costs associated with AI applications pose a challenge for sustainability, as the industry grapples with the balance between user growth and profitability [25]

（来源：新行情） 抖音正以一己之力，搅动全球资本市场。 出品 | 新行情 作者 | 宋辉 张一鸣曾经说过：我做事从不设边界。 从字节跳动的不断扩张的商业帝国和连连刷新的估值来看，确实如此。 日前，市场上又传来重磅消息，字节跳动估值高达5500亿美元（现汇率约合3.8万亿元人民币）。 什么概念？已经远远超过了阿里巴巴，正在逼近腾讯的江湖地位，而字节跳动仍像一台开足马力的引 擎，加速狂飙，未来会到何处，难以想象。 字节跳动估值再创新高，冲上5500亿美元 近日，知情人士透露，投资机构General Atlantic正计划出售其持有的字节跳动部分股权，相关售股流程 预计将于3月完成。此次交易中字节跳动估值高达5500亿美元（现汇率约合3.8万亿元人民币）。 X 这一估值，较2025年11月的历史高点上涨约15%，较去年员工股票回购时的定价更是增长了66%。 据了解，General Atlantic于2017年首次投资字节跳动，当时估值仅200亿美元，其首席执行官比尔·福特 目前仍担任字节跳动董事会成员。 对于这一消息，字节跳动方面暂未给出回应。 九年过去，字节估值翻了27.5倍，已经成长为中国第一独角兽，在全球未上 ...

2026年才刚开年，时尚圈就传来两大"好消息"。好消息其一是，《穿Prada的恶魔2》真的要来了；另一个"好消息"是，"穿搭的恶魔"也已经来了。 谁能料到，2026年目前全网最火的"时尚穿搭博主"，居然是一众AI应用。自从豆包上线视频连线通话功能，就莫名被网友强行转职成了"穿搭达人"。点击 视频通话，打开摄像头，把自己展示给它看，说出你想要的风格、要去的场合，它就能为你提供穿搭建议。一批又一批的网友沉溺其中不可自拔。 在时尚这个永远走在最前沿的先锋圈子，人类还算得上是"双赢"，既庆幸又找到了一个AI暂时无法取代人类的领域，又获得了新型娱乐方式——事已至 此，不会真有人把AI的穿搭鬼才妙招当真了吧？ 人类"听劝"，AI乱搭 今年1月，短视频博主@别跟我俩闹了 发布了一段和豆包的通话视频，表示自己要去上课，希望它为自己搭配一身合适的打扮。这段视频获得了百万次点 赞，转发量高达200多万次。 在AI的精心指导下，博主换上了黄色格子衬衫和棕色裤子，再穿上大红外套，一套完美的"番茄炒蛋"cosplay服就完成了。当博主最后确认还有什么细节需 要调整时，对面还建议"把下巴上那颗球拿掉"，引得她震惊反驳："那是我的下巴！" ...