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中金2026年展望:弱美元周期带动全球经济共振修复 叠加国内外长线资金支撑 将对A/港股带来提振
智通财经网· 2026-01-05 00:48
Group 1 - The weak US dollar is driving a global economic recovery, boosting domestic export growth and profit improvement in China [1] - Global monetary policy and liquidity are becoming more accommodative, raising valuations for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - Increased foreign capital inflow is expected to support A-shares, driven by a weak dollar and domestic policy catalysts [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's policies since 2025 have hindered the nominal economic recovery in the US, but a shift in focus towards domestic issues may lead to fiscal and monetary easing in 2026 [2] - The easing environment is expected to alleviate three major constraints on the US economy, including weak consumer confidence and sluggish housing demand [2] - The technology, industrial, and resource sectors in the US are anticipated to continue leading the market in 2026, while consumer and financial sectors may catch up as the nominal cycle improves [2] Group 3 - A weaker dollar may provide room for the renminbi to appreciate, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and year-end foreign exchange settlement peaks [3] - The anticipated trend of abundant dollar liquidity suggests that the US dollar is likely in a depreciation phase, which may support the renminbi [3]