2026年开年以来，有色金属、商业航天等板块持续活跃，带动相关ETF产品规模显著攀升。近日，万家 工业有色ETF规模突破100亿元；永赢卫星ETF去年四季度以来"吸金"超过50亿元，最新规模达到82.4亿 元。 机构认为，当前市场环境下，有色金属板块受益于供需格局改善与全球"再工业化"趋势，商业航天板块 则在政策支持与产业突破的双重驱动下进入了加速发展期。 伴随规模持续上涨，万家工业有色ETF于近日加入了百亿规模"俱乐部"。Choice数据显示，截至1月7 日，万家工业有色ETF基金规模达到101.86亿元。南方有色金属ETF规模为245.84亿元，华夏有色金属 ETF和大成有色ETF规模分别为85.46亿元、59.4亿元。 国泰基金认为，近期有色板块表现较好，主要受地缘和供需因素影响。一方面，地缘冲突再起，增加了 资源品供给的不确定性；另一方面，铜、铝、镍等基本金属均面临供应矛盾，支撑价格上升。 万家工业有色ETF基金经理贺方舟对上证报记者表示，当下延续美国经济软着陆的预期，市场将会期待 流动性的宽松和财政的发力对需求和消费侧的拉动效果。铜铝的供给侧明年依然表现出很强的硬约束， 市场的交易逻辑将逐步从供给侧 ...

2026年伊始，全球股市迎来"开门红"。在科技板块和中小盘股票带动下，中美股市摆脱了去年12月的震荡调整行情，重启上涨走势。其中，道琼斯工 业指数和标普500指数再创历史新高，A股和港股在元旦假期后均大幅上涨。 中美股市的涨势可能还会持续一段时间，但是美股存在泡沫风险，因驱动美股上涨的利多因素有所弱化，美国经济增长持续性存疑。而中国经济增长 前景好于美国，目前处于新经济壮大阶段，AI等科技成果走向商业应用有利于企业利润改善，扩大内需和有效投资有利于物价企稳回升，流动性充裕 对A股形成支撑。 美股泡沫风险越来越大 2023—2025年，美股已连续3年实现两位数涨幅，在历史上比较罕见。2026年，众多美股大盘股的估值已处于高位。虽然市场不乏积极因素，支撑美股 走强，但一些潜在的问题也在积累。一旦美联储宽松力度不及预期，利空可能集中释放。在高估值背景下，美股调整幅度会很大。例如，上一轮连续3 年出现两位数上涨是在2019—2021年，但2022年高通胀倒逼美联储持续加息，叠加供应链问题，美股出现大幅下跌，其中标普500指数跌幅接近20%。 图为标普500指数走势 2025年，美股表现强劲的支撑因素有两个：一是宽松的 ...

Group 1 - The weak US dollar is driving a global economic recovery, boosting domestic export growth and profit improvement in China [1] - Global monetary policy and liquidity are becoming more accommodative, raising valuations for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - Increased foreign capital inflow is expected to support A-shares, driven by a weak dollar and domestic policy catalysts [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's policies since 2025 have hindered the nominal economic recovery in the US, but a shift in focus towards domestic issues may lead to fiscal and monetary easing in 2026 [2] - The easing environment is expected to alleviate three major constraints on the US economy, including weak consumer confidence and sluggish housing demand [2] - The technology, industrial, and resource sectors in the US are anticipated to continue leading the market in 2026, while consumer and financial sectors may catch up as the nominal cycle improves [2] Group 3 - A weaker dollar may provide room for the renminbi to appreciate, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and year-end foreign exchange settlement peaks [3] - The anticipated trend of abundant dollar liquidity suggests that the US dollar is likely in a depreciation phase, which may support the renminbi [3]

点击小程序查看报告原文 2025的症结，2026的解法 整体来看2025年美国经济保持了一定的韧性，主要受益于强劲的AI与工业设备投资，但不可否认的是名义经济周期复苏进程偏慢（图表1），主要症结有 三。 Abstract 摘要 2025年以来特朗普政府的DOGE、对等关税、打击非法移民等政策冲击不断，拖累了美国名义经济周期复苏的进程。进入2026年，中期选举压力临近[1]， 或迫使特朗普对外政策软化，将施政重心转向国内，实质性推动财政货币双宽松与金融去监管。我们预计，财政货币双宽的环境将有效缓解2025年制约美 国经济的三大症结，即负面冲击多拖累信心、小企业扩张迟滞拖累终端需求、以及购房需求弱拖累地产投资。同时，宽松的信贷环境将继续支撑今年表现 亮眼的AI与再工业化相关投资。因此，我们判断2025年美股内表现较好的科技、工业、资源等板块在2026年有望继续领跑，而受美国内需拖累的消费与金 融板块随着名义周期的上行可能补涨。随着12月FOMC后美联储开启常态化扩表[2]（详见 《财政主导，重启扩表》 ），明年美元流动性大概率逐步趋 松，与有望复苏的基本面共同支撑全球风险资产，尤其利好新兴市场，以及顺通胀顺美元流 ...

12月中旬的一个周四，上海浦东香格里拉酒店二楼的一间会议室里，李廷汉（Lee Ting Han）已经连续工作了一整天。 作为马来西亚柔佛州的州议员，他陪同州长带队来到上海，任务很明确：说服更多中国企业去柔佛州投资。这个招商团队在为期8天的上海行程中，很多 时间就驻守在这间会议室里，一家接一家，与中国企业闭门会谈。大马最大的银行——马来亚银行（Maybank）作为行程的组织方，显然也在为自己物色 来自中国的客户。 这一天，从清晨到傍晚，7家中国企业陆续进入会议室，每家获得了40分钟与柔佛州最高决策团队的单独会面机会。 会议室门外，依稀传来酒店大堂欢快的圣诞颂歌，但偶尔进出的中国公司代表和马方工作人员都神情严肃，三三两两压低声音交流。 "有几家只差最后的临门一脚了，"一位马方工作人员告诉《财富》，"他们想和州长最后确认一些细节。"这些企业来自半导体材料、特殊化学品、精密电 子电机、航空材料等行业。 最后一家中国企业离开会议室后，柔佛州州长——拿督翁哈菲兹（Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi）也在一众随从的簇拥中起身离开，他握住每只伸向他的手，用 英文说："欢迎来柔佛。" 图注：柔佛州代表团。后排左一：柔佛 ...

12月26日，刚刚在A股上市的海安集团发布公告，计划与旗舰股份公司及先锋股份公司等签署《投资意向协议》，拟对先锋股份公司增资，在俄罗斯联邦 鄂木斯克州建设一座巨型全钢工程机械子午线轮胎工厂。 01 百亿卢布投资，瞄准矿业刚需 根据公告，本次建设为一期工程，设计年产能为10500条全钢巨胎。项目预计总投资不超过539.90亿卢布（约合43.19亿元人民币），建设周期预计为3年 （2026年至2028年）。资金来源包括银行借款和股东增资，其中银行借款400亿卢布，双方股东增资合计139.90亿卢布。 全钢巨胎是重型矿用自卸卡车的核心消耗品，其需求与全球矿业活动直接挂钩。海安集团此次投资，应是基于对俄罗斯矿产资源禀赋的深度研判。 此外，工厂产品可借助欧亚经济联盟的关税优惠，出口至白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦等周边国家，拓展中亚市场。 同时，俄罗斯作为能源和石化大国，合成橡胶、炭黑等原材料供应充足，且当地能源成本较低，有利于控制生产成本。俄罗斯政府正推动"再工业化"和制 造业本地化，项目有望获得税收减免、补贴及关税保护等政策红利。 03 据悉，俄罗斯拥有全球约37%的矿产资源，铁矿石、煤炭、铝储量全球前三，黄金、铜等储量也名 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The global economic landscape is undergoing significant restructuring, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain reshaping, and shifts in monetary policy, which are pushing the commodity market into a critical phase [1] - The demand for copper is expected to grow due to the "re-industrialization" trend and regionalization of supply chains, with China's refined copper consumption projected to reach 1,495 million tons in 2024, a 2.75% increase year-on-year [2] - The U.S. and EU are launching substantial infrastructure projects, such as a $584 billion grid upgrade plan in the EU, which is anticipated to increase copper demand by 4% to 5% annually [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The competition for copper resources is intensifying due to supply chain regionalization, with the U.S. stockpiling over 70% of global exchange copper inventories, leading to shortages and rising costs in Asia [3] - Trade policies and inventory management by the U.S. are influencing global copper supply chains, creating a long-term support logic for copper prices [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is a key variable for the commodity market, as lower real interest rates are expected to support commodity pricing [4] - Historical data indicates that during past rate-cutting cycles, commodities like gold and copper have seen significant price increases, reinforcing the positive correlation between lower rates and commodity prices [4] Group 4: Commodity Role in Investment - Commodities are increasingly recognized for their dual role in asset allocation as both an inflation hedge and a risk diversifier, especially in the context of rising global inflation [5] - The strategic importance of copper is highlighted due to its critical role in AI infrastructure, electricity, and renewable energy, further supporting its price stability [5] Group 5: ETF Performance - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has seen its scale surpass 4 billion, reaching 4.124 billion yuan, with a total of 2.072 billion shares, marking new highs since its inception [6] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows of 1.18 billion yuan over the past 22 days, indicating strong investor interest [6]

美国制造业的衰退已经影响到其军工领域，导致美军的装备制造远远落后于中国。甚至连美军所需的装 备都无法满足，这一趋势几乎不可逆转。一个国家的军事实力最终取决于其能否真正制造出所需的装 备，而非口号或预算数字。美国最近也开始承认这一点。 《纽约时报》曾以几乎叹息的语气指出美军想要的，美国造不出，这不仅仅是技术问题，而是长期以来 国家工业体系整体衰退的必然结果。很多人依然沉浸在美国军费世界第一的幻想中，但忽略了一个残酷 的现实：虽然钱还在，但制造能力已经不再。 美国的问题从来不是缺钱，而是造不动。美国军费历来丰厚，甚至是历史上最为慷慨的。但问题在于， 这些资金越来越像是在一个空心化的系统里转圈。研发周期被无限拉长，项目不断延期，成本不断膨 胀，装备性能却一再缩水。看似是管理失败，实质上是因为美国的工业基础已经无法满足现代战争日益 增长的需求。军舰建造速度缓慢，飞机造价越来越高，导弹库存无法补充，弹药生产周期长达数年。这 些问题并非出现在某个单一项目上，而是美国工业体系普遍衰退的结果。 制造业一旦出现断层，军工产业将首当其冲。所有军工强国的背后都有一个共同特点：那就是完整、密 集且可扩张的制造业体系。而美国的问题恰恰 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical significance of American manufacturing as a backbone of national strength and social structure, highlighting the decline of stable job opportunities for the middle class due to the loss of manufacturing jobs [4][5]. - It raises critical questions about whether the U.S. can bring back some manufacturing capabilities and if the service sector can fill the gap left by manufacturing in providing stable, middle-class jobs [5][36]. Group 2 - The formation of American manufacturing civilization was characterized by the ability of companies to integrate resources across states and industries, supported by government initiatives that set clear demand through public works and military procurement [7][8]. - The post-war period saw significant contributions from education and population structure, with the GI Bill expanding access to higher education and vocational training, while infrastructure projects like the Interstate Highway Act fueled domestic demand [11][12]. Group 3 - The decline of American manufacturing is attributed to three main forces: rising institutional friction, globalization pushing manufacturing to low-cost regions, and the concentration of wealth among high-skilled workers due to technological and financial trends [22][24][25]. - Institutional friction has led to a preference for less risky projects, making it harder for manufacturing to thrive in the U.S. as the approval processes become longer and more complex [24][26]. Group 4 - The article emphasizes that while nominal GDP share of manufacturing has decreased, the actual output has remained stable, indicating that manufacturing has not disappeared but rather shifted in its role within the economy [30][34]. - Employment in manufacturing peaked in June 1979 at 19.6 million and has since declined to approximately 12.8 million by June 2019, reflecting a significant drop in its share of total employment [35][68]. Group 5 - The service sector's ability to absorb displaced manufacturing jobs is questioned, as it struggles to provide sufficient, well-paying jobs with clear career advancement paths, particularly in a high-cost living environment [36][39]. - The article outlines that the service sector is characterized by a "dumbbell structure," where high-end jobs require significant education and skills, while low-end jobs offer low wages and instability, making it difficult to support a middle-class lifestyle [39][40]. Group 6 - The discussion on re-industrialization in the U.S. highlights the need for a dual approach: ensuring national security in critical industries while also addressing the social structure to allow ordinary people to share in economic growth [44][46]. - The article suggests that a realistic path forward involves selective return of manufacturing capabilities, focusing on key industries while also investing in infrastructure, energy transition, and skill development to create stable job opportunities [49][51]. Group 7 - The challenges of re-establishing manufacturing in the U.S. are not solely financial; they also include regulatory hurdles, skill shortages, supply chain density, and overall cost structures that complicate the return of manufacturing jobs [53][54][55]. - The article argues that simple policies like tariffs and subsidies are insufficient to address the complex structural issues facing American manufacturing and that a more nuanced approach is necessary [56][58]. Group 8 - The article concludes that if manufacturing cannot recreate a robust middle class, the U.S. must explore a combination of industries to provide dignified work for ordinary people, including infrastructure, energy transition, and restructured service sectors [60][61]. - It emphasizes that the ultimate goal is to restore a social structure where ordinary people can achieve dignity through work, rather than merely focusing on the number of manufacturing jobs [62][63].

For more, let's bring in Joe Leavia, counselor to the secretary of the Treasury Department. Joe, great to have you with us. Would you do you agree with that sentiment.>> I do. I mean, the thing is the GDP numbers, which we could get into, were fantastic, was all private sector led, but what struck me, Melissa, is the profound weakness in the interests sectors of the economy such as structures and residential. Structures, which are factories, by the way, they'll get a huge lift with the tax bill.uh 2026 shou ...