卢拉总统在仪式上动情地表示，这座比亚迪工厂让当地人民"重拾尊严"。简短的话语，承载着厚重的期望与发展成果。55亿雷亚尔（约71 亿元人民币）的巨额投资，直接或间接创造的2万个就业岗位，以及规划年产能高达15万辆的现代化基地，在拉美地区经历"去工业化"困惑 的当下，比亚迪带来的不仅是电动车产品，更是一场以绿色科技为引擎的"再工业化"希望，为区域经济注入了可持续发展的强心剂。 在巴伊亚州那片曾经回荡着福特引擎声的土地上，一场无声却意义深远的"交接"正在上演。比亚迪创始人王传福亲手将车钥匙交付到巴西 总统卢拉手中，中国驻巴西大使祝青桥等双方政要共同见证。昔日传统燃油车巨头的工厂旧址，如今成为中国新能源汽车迈向全球的桥头 堡，标志着全球汽车产业格局正在经历深刻重塑。 1400万，这个数字背后，是比亚迪作为全球首家达成此成就的新能源车企的雄厚实力，更是中国汽车工业从昔日的"市场换技术"，到如今 凭借创新与技术引领，逐步转向全球汽车产业"引领者"角色的有力证明。选择在巴西，将这一极具历史意义的车辆赠予卢拉总统，本身就 是强烈的信号：中国智造正以其绿色、创新的内核，成为新兴市场国家推进工业化进程、实现低碳转型的可靠伙伴与强 ...

文｜康路 2025年10月7日，在美国格林威治经济论坛上，APCO Worldwide创始人玛乔丽·克劳斯 （Marjorie Kraus）与公司大中华区主席詹姆斯·麦格雷戈（James McGregor）展开了一 场关于"投资中国"的深度对话。 在中国工作生活逾三十年的麦格雷戈表示，当前，跨国企业正以更加务实和深度的方式继续 扎根中国。 他总结道，中国对跨国企业的吸引力源自长期的结构性优势。首先，中国的市场体量巨大。 中国依然是世界上最具规模效应的消费与产业市场。对制造业、能源、消费品乃至金融机构 而言，这个庞大的市场仍是其全球布局中最核心的一环。 其次，中国的创新能力充满活力。麦格雷戈指出，中国的创新并不总是颠覆式的突破，而是 一种持续的"渐进式创新"，在商业模式、产品迭代和产业链效率上的快速改进。华为正在 上海青浦建设一个超过百万平方米的创新园区，计划容纳三万多研发人员，这只是科研与产 业升级投入的一个缩影。他强调，中国企业擅长将技术从实验室推向市场。 第三个原因则更具战略意味。跨国公司意识到他们未来最强的竞争对手极有可能来自中国。 越来越多的外企选择与中国企业合作、学习甚至结盟，以便提前布局，包括新能 ...

美国副总统詹姆斯·戴维·万斯在2025年4月3日面对全球股市大跌时，给出这么个看法，把那天市场乱象归为短暂波动，还说长远来看经济会好转。这话出自 他接受新闻媒体采访时，当时特朗普政府刚抛出大规模关税政策，引发金融界一片哗然。万斯本是俄亥俄州参议员出身，2024年大选搭档特朗普胜出后上位 副总统，他的言论往往直击中西部工人阶层关切，这次也不例外。他强调政策调整虽带来阵痛，但目标是重振本土制造业，让普通美国人受益，而不是只顾 华尔街那些大佬。 回溯事件起因，特朗普在2025年4月2日白宫玫瑰园记者会上宣布"解放日"关税计划，对加拿大、墨西哥和中国等贸易伙伴征收税率从10%到60%不等的关 税。这不是空穴来风，早从3月21日特朗普就预告过要搞大动作，针对贸易逆差国家下手。市场早就闻风而动，S&P500指数从2月高点已跌超10%，但正式 公布后还是炸了锅。4月3日美股开盘，道琼斯指数狂泻1679点，创下自2020年6月以来单日最惨纪录，S&P500跌4.5%，纳斯达克重挫5.2%。全球联动，欧 洲富时100指数次日跌近5%，加拿大TSX连跌两天超8%，日本日经225指数触发熔断，单日蒸发7%，创三年低点。韩国KOSP ...

文 | 三思社 来源 | 三思社 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 "要接受新的地缘政治和宏观经济范式，其核心是现代重商主义……发达国家的重商主义也是对制造业空心化痛苦的防御性反应。随着 全球化造成的不平衡被视为不公，重商主义走向主流……特朗普政府的议程具有现代重商主义的全部特征——美国政府正进行史上最大 规模之一的行政权力扩张来主导经济……国家安全成为产业政策的驱动力" ——桥水基金 8月11日报告《Navigating Through a Time of Extraordinary Change》 在上一篇文章 大宗商品会有新一轮牛市吗? 中，我们从配置转移的角度描绘了未来几个季度商品整体走势的推力，也笼统描述了一下我们 目前所处的周期位置。 而这一篇文章，我们再讲一些美国具体的政策层面和经济层面的动因，和原油期货接近08年低位的净多头仓位。 从政策层面看，目前小部分华府观察家认为，市场把TACO等同于Trump1.0，是低估了本届共和党政府的"再工业化和实施现代重商主 义"的战略决心（至于在中期选举临近的压力下，他能不能做到先另说）； 对特朗普战略决心的忽视，意味着市场也可能战术性的低估了特朗普政 ...

特朗普从2018年就开始搞关税壁垒，对中国商品加税，目的是逼企业把生产线挪回本土。 可现在，美国制造业就业只剩1200多万，产业链不全，成本高企。苹果之类的公司宁可去印度设厂，也不愿全回美国。智库报告显示，关税推高了美国通 胀，消费者物价指数在2025年4月同比涨2.3%，制造业成本涨了2%到4.5%，不少工厂关门，职位流失。 特朗普的金主马斯克都公开反对，说这伤了电动车供应链。美联储主席在国会听证会上承认，关税带来的通胀压力会延续到2026年。 美国想重振制造业没错，但底层逻辑有问题，它已经是金融帝国，精英都跑去华尔街了，底层工人适应不了高科技生产线。 结果呢，2025年美国制造业职位继续下滑，劳工部数据说连续四个月丢了上万个岗位。 我国正好相反，从制造大国转向消费大国已经是国家战略。过去中国靠出口和投资，工业产量占全球45%，但消费只占13%，美国3.3亿人消费却占全球 29%。 中国从2023年起就大力推内需，2024年出台贸易升级方案，补贴家电汽车消费。2025年更猛，3月设5%增长目标，300亿人民币补贴启动，覆盖以旧换新。 5月麦肯锡报告说，中国城市家庭消费涨2.3%，7月发1500亿特别国债刺激 ...

CRH Investor Day 2025 Summary Company Overview - **Company**: CRH (NYSE:CRH) - **Industry**: Building Materials - **Market Cap**: Over $75 billion - **Employees**: 80,000 across 4,000 locations - **Core Business**: Largest building materials company in North America and Europe, focusing on aggregates, cementitious materials, roads, and water infrastructure [21][20][4] Key Points and Arguments Growth and Performance - **Adjusted EBITDA Guidance**: Full year guidance of $7.5 to $7.7 billion, indicating double-digit growth from a record year in 2024 [21] - **Historical Performance**: - 15% compound annual growth rate in adjusted EBITDA over the past decade - 17% EPS growth and 11% free cash flow growth [22][31] - 11 consecutive years of margin expansion, with margins up over 900 basis points [30] - Total shareholder return of 36% over the last year, 17.5% over 10 years, and 16.2% over 55 years [32] Strategic Positioning - **Market Leadership**: CRH is positioned as America's largest infrastructure player, with a national footprint and a connected portfolio that is difficult to replicate [14][20] - **Geographic Focus**: - 75% of adjusted EBITDA from the U.S. market, with strong positions in both densely populated areas and high-growth regions [23][24] - International business represents 25% of adjusted EBITDA, with strong market positions in Central and Eastern Europe and Australia [25] Megatrends and Opportunities - **Infrastructure Demand**: - Significant ongoing need for transportation infrastructure maintenance and expansion, supported by $350 billion allocated from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IJA) [37] - Water infrastructure market valued at $100 billion, with a projected $1 trillion needed by 2033 for upgrades [38][39] - Reindustrialization driven by AI demand and energy infrastructure modernization [40] Business Model and Competitive Advantages - **Connected Portfolio**: - 95% of revenue linked to aggregates, with 230 million tons of annual production and 20 billion tons of reserves [27] - Largest road paver in the U.S., producing over 50 million tons of asphalt annually [28] - Leadership in water infrastructure, providing engineered solutions for stormwater, wastewater, and potable water [28] Capital Allocation and Financial Strategy - **Capital Deployment**: - $27 billion allocated over the last five years, with $15 billion for M&A and growth CapEx [67] - $12 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks [67] - Strong cash flow generation supports ongoing investments and shareholder returns [68] Innovation and Sustainability - **Commitment to Innovation**: Over 200 ongoing innovation projects and 2,000 patents held [62][63] - **Sustainability Initiatives**: Largest recycler in North America, recycling 50 million tons of waste annually, with a goal of reducing emissions by 30% by 2030 [66] Additional Important Content - **Cultural Aspects**: Emphasis on a customer-centric approach and local brand empowerment, fostering strong community ties and loyalty [44][45] - **Leadership Team**: Strong alignment among leadership with over 200 years of combined industry experience [18] - **Future Growth Ambitions**: Clear strategy to leverage existing strengths and capitalize on emerging megatrends for sustained growth [15][33] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic direction of CRH as presented during the 2025 Investor Day, highlighting its robust performance, market leadership, and commitment to innovation and sustainability.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is on an upward trend, with the US economy showing strong consumption and manufacturing reshoring, while China is shifting towards AI, and large - scale AI investments are expected to drive up demand for certain assets [40][41][42] - The large - scale investment in computing power is expected to push up the price of silver, and the demand for copper is also likely to increase due to large - scale power construction [49][82][85] - The Fed's new round of interest rate cuts will lead international funds to flow from the US and Europe to emerging markets represented by China, and the stock markets in emerging markets, especially China, are favored by global institutional investors [48][51][54] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Economic Indicators - In September, the US Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.0, indicating continued expansion, and the service business activity index also showed a positive trend [6][7] - In August, the US import value from China increased by nearly 40% month - on - month after the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, and the competitiveness of Chinese goods has enhanced [10] - In August, the total retail and food sales in the US increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, and the wholesale sales reached a record high with a 6.2% year - on - year increase, showing strong consumption [13][16] - In August, the US capital goods import value was still high at $91.9 billion, with a 10.5% year - on - year growth, indicating the acceleration of manufacturing reshoring and "re - industrialization" [19] - In August, the US manufacturing backlog orders were at a record high, with a 7.1% year - on - year increase, and the service export value reached a record high of $101 billion [22][25] - In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations [28] Chinese Economic Indicators - In September, China's Caixin PMI production index was 51.9%, indicating an accelerated expansion of production, and the purchase price of raw materials continued to rise [31] - China has issued an "AI +" action plan, and the economy is comprehensively shifting towards AI [42] Eurozone Economic Indicators - In September, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI slightly contracted, while the service PMI accelerated its expansion [34] Indian Economic Indicators - In August, India's manufacturing and service PMIs reached new highs, and both sectors have been expanding for more than three years [36] Japanese Economic Indicators - Japan's 10 - year government bond yield reached a new high [38] AI Investment and Market Impact - Morgan Stanley predicts that global AI data center and chip investment will reach $2.9 trillion by 2028 [43][56][58] - OpenAI plans to invest about $400 billion to build five new data centers in the US, with a planned capacity of 250GW by 2033, and the power investment may be as high as $12.5 trillion [44][58][59] - Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment, and Morgan Stanley expects Alibaba Cloud to add more than 3GW of data center capacity annually from 2026 - 2032 [45][57] Strategy Recommendations - **Asset Allocation** - With the Fed's interest rate cuts, international funds will flow to emerging markets, and the Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to rise. Semiconductor equipment ETFs will remain prosperous due to the high demand for computing power. It is recommended to hold long positions in the CSI 300 index futures [48] - Gold prices are expected to rise as the US moves towards stagflation. Silver prices will be pushed up by data center investment, and copper demand will increase due to power construction. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures are expected to fall [49][80][88] - **Stock Market Outlook** - The CSI 300, CSI 500, and科创50 indexes are expected to perform well in the fourth quarter, and the Hang Seng Tech ETF is also expected to rise [68][71][74] - **Currency Outlook** - The offshore RMB is expected to appreciate under the pattern of trade surplus and capital inflow [91]

Core Insights - Eaton Corporation plc (NYSE:ETN) reported record-breaking second-quarter 2025 results, with earnings per share at $2.51 and adjusted EPS at $2.95, reflecting an 8% increase from the previous year [2] - Sales reached $7.0 billion, an 11% year-over-year growth driven by 8% organic growth, acquisitions, and favorable currency impacts [2] - The Electrical Americas segment generated $3.4 billion in sales, a 16% increase from Q2 2024, driven by strong demand in electrification markets [3] Financial Performance - Earnings per share (EPS) reached $2.51, with adjusted EPS at $2.95, marking an 8% increase year-over-year [2] - Total sales climbed to $7.0 billion, reflecting an 11% growth compared to the previous year [2] - Segment margins achieved a record high of 23.9%, indicating improved profitability [2] Market Dynamics - The backlog increased by 17%, signaling sustained demand across Eaton's offerings [2] - Key growth drivers identified include digitalization, electrification, reindustrialization, and rising defense spending [3] Strategic Moves - In July, Eaton announced the acquisition of Resilient Power Systems Inc., enhancing its capabilities in solid-state transformer technology [4] - This acquisition is expected to strengthen Eaton's position in the electric vehicle ecosystem and expand applications in data centers, port electrification, and battery energy storage [4]

Core Viewpoint - Metals play a crucial role in geopolitical economic competition, with industrialization serving as a key link between metal resources and geopolitical dynamics. The interplay of re-industrialization in the US and Europe, strategic emerging industries, and industrialization in developing countries is significant in this context [2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Metal Supply and Demand - Metals are strategic resources that reflect a country's manufacturing capability and are closely tied to national security. The importance of metals has risen in the context of intensified geopolitical competition [6][12]. - The geographical distribution of metal resources is highly concentrated, leading to significant supply constraints. For instance, cobalt reserves are predominantly located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for over 50% of global reserves and 70%-80% of supply [18][20]. - The demand for metals is primarily driven by industrialized regions, such as East Asia, Europe, and North America, while supply is concentrated in South America, Oceania, and Africa, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [16][23]. Group 2: Industrialization and Metal's Role - Industrialization is categorized into three types: re-industrialization in developed countries, new industrialization driven by green and digital transitions, and industrialization in developing countries. Metals are essential for all these industrialization processes [27][35]. - The re-industrialization efforts in the US and Europe are constrained by high dependence on metal imports, with the EU's net imports of iron ore reaching about 70% in 2022 [28][29]. - The development of new industries, particularly in clean energy and semiconductors, heavily relies on metals. For example, lithium, cobalt, and nickel are critical for battery performance in electric vehicles [36][37]. Group 3: China's Position and Strategies - China possesses significant advantages in metal smelting and processing, which enhances its competitive position in geopolitical economic competition. The country has a dominant share in the global rare earth market, with over 90% of rare earth refining capacity [38][39]. - The scale of China's metal processing capabilities allows for lower production costs, making it a key player in the supply chain for various metals, including lithium and strategic small metals like tungsten [44][55]. - China's response to geopolitical risks in the metal sector includes enhancing recycling capabilities, tapping into domestic resources, and securing foreign reserves [2][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with various countries showing positive economic indicators [8] - The Fed's preventive 25 - basis - point rate cut signals a shift in monetary policy focus towards employment [4] - International capital is actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, and the US manufacturing industry is accelerating its reshoring [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - China implements the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, and international capital is bullish on China's technology sector in AI, robotics, and biotech [7] - The US Court of Appeals rules "reciprocal tariffs" illegal. US capital goods imports in July reached $96.1 billion, a record high, with a 15.1% year - on - year growth, indicating accelerated manufacturing reshoring [7][12] - The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI exceeded the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022, and Germany's and the Eurozone's manufacturing PMIs showed positive trends [7][23] - India's August manufacturing and service PMIs hit new highs, and its manufacturing and service industries have been expanding for over three years [25] - Japan's long - term government bond yields are on an upward trend [27] - US economic data shows positive signs: retail and food sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, consumer demand is strong; CPI in August increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; the Market manufacturing PMI index accelerated expansion in August, reaching a three - year high; capital goods imports in July reached a record high, and intermediate goods imports in July increased by 25% month - on - month, indicating a recovery in manufacturing [9][12][15][18][21] Asset Allocation - The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut in September starts a new rate - cut cycle [30] - Foreign capital is flowing into Hong Kong - listed Chinese assets, driving up the Hang Seng Tech Index [29][32][43] - The Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3900 points. A - shares enter a phased shock period and shift to a defensive stance, with a focus on allocating CSI 300 stock index futures [31][38] - After the Fed's rate cut, London gold enters a technical indicator repair period [33][46] - Thirty - year treasury bond futures continue to decline [34][49] - Foreign capital is buying Chinese concept stocks, pushing up the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index [41]