从轮动到共振，双轮驱动下有色有望迎来重估新机遇 2025年，有色金属行业整体运行呈现供需错配与宏观宽松共振下的结构性上行态势，板块以显著的超额 收益成为市场焦点。从全年的轮动节奏来看，呈现出贵金属先行，小金属接力，工业金属冲刺的轮动脉 络。进入2026年，随着市场进入牛市第二阶段——盈利驱动上涨阶段，在"反内卷"和扩内需驱动下，国 内再通胀叙事强化，有色金属的强周期属性有望体现，主要的支撑逻辑来自金融属性与产业趋势的共振 催化：1)弱美元周期开启支撑大宗商品价格;2)地缘政治风险频发正持续强化资源品的供给刚性;3)内需 趋稳，价格修复，A股盈利因子有望回归;4)有色行业今年在业绩端或将呈现相对高景气。本轮周期行情 为非典型周期行情，呈现业绩拐点先行，股价及估值滞后的特点，与2016-2017年类似，但弱美元周期 的开启以及全球地缘风险升温的大背景下，本轮行情有望呈现金融属性与产业趋势共振带来的重估机 遇。配置上，工业金属与战略小金属为矛，贵金属为盾。 金融属性与产业趋势共振——2026年有色投资主线 中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，2026年有色行业有望呈现金融属性与产业趋势共振带来的重估机 遇。在板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has experienced a decline of over 3%, while industrial metals are witnessing a resonance in financial attributes and industrial trends, suggesting potential investment opportunities during the pullback [1] Group 1: Industrial Metal Trends - The supply side of copper is constrained by mining investment cycles, resource limitations, and geopolitical factors, indicating a tightening trend in the medium term [1] - Demand is showing a pattern of "stable growth in total volume and continuous optimization in structure" during the transition from old to new driving forces [1] - Overall, the supply-demand balance for copper is expected to remain tight, providing solid support for copper prices [1] Group 2: Financial Attributes - The onset of a weak dollar cycle is anticipated to enhance copper prices beyond industrial trends, supporting commodity prices [1] - Frequent geopolitical risks are reinforcing the rigidity of resource supply, which is expected to highlight the strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals [1] Group 3: Mining ETF Performance - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which includes securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals [1] - According to Wind data, the mining ETF (561330) is projected to have the third-highest annual growth among all market ETFs in 2025, and the highest among non-ferrous ETFs, with a higher concentration in "gold + copper + rare earths" [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to experience a revaluation opportunity in 2026, driven by the resonance of financial attributes and industrial trends, with industrial metals and strategic minor metals as the focus and precious metals as a hedge [1][2] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in 2025 showed a structural upward trend due to supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic easing, with a significant annual increase of 94.73%, outperforming the broader market by 67% [2][8] - The investment theme for 2026 centers on the dual drivers of financial attributes and industrial trends within the non-ferrous sector, with minor metals showing the most growth potential, precious metals in a performance realization phase, and industrial metals as a balanced foundational choice [2][40] Industry Performance Review - In 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector was a market focus due to its significant excess returns, with industrial and energy metals leading the gains, followed by minor and precious metals [8] - The rotation pattern observed in 2025 featured precious metals leading, followed by minor metals, and industrial metals making a strong finish [8] 2026 Macroeconomic and Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is characterized by a transition into a bull market's second phase, driven by profit growth, with a focus on domestic demand stabilization and price recovery [15][20] - A weak dollar cycle is anticipated to support commodity prices, with historical patterns indicating that a weaker dollar correlates with higher commodity prices [16][18] - Geopolitical risks are expected to reinforce the rigidity of resource supply, leading to structural constraints in key resource commodities [17] Investment Themes for 2026 - Industrial metals are expected to benefit from a tightening supply due to long-term investment cycles and geopolitical factors, with copper prices likely to find solid support amid a balanced supply-demand landscape [41][42] - Strategic minor metals, such as rare earths, are entering a phase of systematic revaluation driven by supply constraints and policy support, with significant growth potential linked to emerging industries [44][52] - Precious metals maintain a strong long-term investment logic, with performance realization expected to aid in valuation recovery [40][61] Specific Insights on Industrial Metals - Copper, as a representative of industrial metals, is expected to see a tightening supply due to long-term investment cycles, with demand growth driven by emerging green industries [41][42] - The financial attributes of copper are enhanced in a weak dollar environment, which is expected to support its price in the long term [42] Specific Insights on Strategic Minor Metals - The rare earth sector is highlighted for its strategic importance, with China's dominance in supply and recent export control measures reinforcing its pricing power [52][53] - Demand for rare earths is expected to grow steadily due to their critical role in emerging industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [57][59] Conclusion - The non-ferrous metal industry is poised for a revaluation in 2026, driven by a combination of financial and industrial factors, with specific focus areas including industrial metals, strategic minor metals, and precious metals [1][2][40]

Market Analysis - Recent historic declines in gold and silver prices raise the question of whether the bull market for these metals has ended[4] - The conditions for a market termination are not yet mature, as evidenced by historical bull markets in the 1970s and early 21st century[4] - Current market volatility appears localized, with limited spillover effects into broader equity and bond markets[4] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised margin requirements for gold and silver, indicating potential regulatory tightening[4] - Despite speculation about a shift in monetary policy with the nomination of Walsh, the overall direction remains accommodative, contrasting with past tightening periods in 1980 and 2011[4] Commodity Cycle Perspective - The current commodity cycle may still be in its early stages, with many energy and agricultural products showing insufficient price increases since 2020[4] - If the belief in a long-term commodity bull market persists, gold and silver may participate in future rallies, albeit with limited price elasticity[4] Investment Strategy - Following the recent significant drop in gold and silver prices, the market narrative may not be substantially affected in the short term[4] - Investors should monitor where capital flows from precious metals, potentially into undervalued commodities or shifts in stock market styles[4] - Short-term, the safe-haven appeal of gold and silver may diminish, prompting a focus on other assets like oil and bonds[4]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 2.48% on the first trading day of February 2026, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2025 [1] - Some funds shifted from cyclical and technology sectors to defensive sectors such as agriculture and consumer goods, while the overall strategy remains focused on AI technology and cyclical sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in the A-share market is attributed to multiple factors, including overseas liquidity expectations due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about tightening financial conditions [2] - The commodity market's high volatility, particularly in gold and silver prices, also contributed to the market downturn [2] - The approach of the Chinese New Year holiday has led to increased market caution and observation [2] Group 3 - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the current market issues are primarily due to overtrading of trend assets, and the weak dollar cycle is not ending but rather shifting in logic [3] - The long-term logic of "cyclical Alpha, supply constraints + new economic demand + strategic resource security + weak dollar" remains intact [3][4] Group 4 - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that a prolonged period of market fluctuation is expected before a new upward trend emerges, with a focus on AI applications and the chemical sector [4] - The AI industry continues to progress, with potential gradual transition towards application, while the cyclical Alpha recovery has not yet reached extreme values [4] Group 5 - Guotai Junan believes that after the market decline, there is potential for stabilization and a recovery in the upward trend before the Chinese New Year, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market [5] - The focus is shifting towards domestic demand, which is expected to enhance the economic outlook and asset returns [5] Group 6 - Emerging technologies are seen as a main investment theme, with recommendations for sectors such as internet, media, computing, and robotics [6] - The expansion of domestic demand is identified as a key growth driver, with recommendations for food and beverage, consumer services, and aviation sectors [6] - The financial sector is viewed as a stabilizing force, benefiting from the growth in wealth management demand, with recommendations for insurance, brokerage, and banking [6] Group 7 - Suggested ETFs for investment include: - AI applications/emerging technology: Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), Media ETF (516190.SH) - Domestic demand: Food and Beverage ETF (515170.SH) - Financial sector: Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF (513190.SH) - Broad market: CSI 300 ETF (510330.SH) [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift, with a movement from single-market asset allocation to diversified global assets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is characterized by "high growth, low correlation, and low valuation" attributes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The core contradiction in global asset performance in the first half of 2025 revolves around the uncertainty of tariff policies, leading to a risk-off mode in the market [2]. - The U.S. dollar assets faced a collective downturn in April 2025, with the dollar index dropping below 100 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surging, indicating a shift from a "dollar-centric" view to a new paradigm where non-U.S. currencies are gaining importance [2][3]. - Historical trends show that global liquidity typically follows a 4-5 year cycle with the U.S. dollar, and a declining dollar phase tends to favor non-U.S. assets, particularly those in the Asia-Pacific region with strong fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Asia-Pacific - For domestic investors, the low correlation of the CSI 300 index with major global indices allows for effective risk mitigation through investments in Asia-Pacific assets, which are expected to contribute higher economic growth compared to global markets [3]. - The Asia-Pacific market currently offers significantly lower PE valuation levels compared to the high valuations in the U.S. market, presenting a compelling investment opportunity [3]. Group 3: Sectoral Advantages - The dual drivers of "technology growth" and "dividend defense" are central to the investment appeal of Asia-Pacific assets, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which has unmatched global competitiveness [4]. - Major semiconductor companies in the region, such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics, are positioned to benefit from the AI technology boom and the recovery of the semiconductor cycle [4]. - Japan's corporate governance reforms and ultra-loose monetary policy have improved shareholder returns and operational efficiency, making Japanese equities an attractive option for long-term investors [4][5]. Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The Southern Fund's Asia-Pacific Select ETF is designed to capture investment opportunities in the Asia-Pacific market, tracking the FTSE Asia-Pacific Low Carbon Select Index, which includes leading companies while incorporating ESG low-carbon screening [7]. - The ETF's holdings balance quality and diversity, featuring top firms across various sectors, including technology and automotive, while minimizing risks associated with single-country or single-industry volatility [7]. - The fund's low management and custody fees provide a cost-effective pathway for investors to participate in the growth potential of the Asia-Pacific region [7]. Group 5: Performance Resilience - The Asia-Pacific Select ETF has demonstrated resilience in various market conditions, outperforming similar assets during periods of high U.S. Treasury yields and global trade fluctuations [8]. - The rise of Asia-Pacific assets is seen as a natural outcome of evolving global economic dynamics, industry cycles, and improved corporate governance, marking the region's emergence into a "golden era" [8].

Core Conclusion - The market's upward momentum has slowed down this week, with active trading funds causing turnover rates to spike, surpassing the high point of August 2025. The spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation after excessive short-term trading is normal. Although there are indications of a short-term cooling in policy, the overall stance remains accommodative [1][5]. Market Trends - The market style is shifting, with thematic sentiment cooling and strong sectors returning to the prosperity line. In the liquidity bull market phase, the profit effect is spreading, and price increases are considered a key prosperity line. The current narrative around commodities is driven by de-globalization and supply chain restructuring, leading to a re-pricing of key resource products [1][5]. Commodity Price Dynamics - Long-term, commodity prices tend to move in tandem, even during periods of economic downturn, as seen from 1970 to 1980 when prices continued to rise until 1980. There is optimism for a new super cycle in commodity prices. In the short to medium term, the focus should be on supply constraints, with potential expansion from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Beneficiaries on both supply and demand sides include non-ferrous metals (precious metals, copper, aluminum, strategic metals, rare earths), new energy (new energy materials, power batteries), chemical products (phosphate chemicals, fluorine chemicals), and storage chips [1][3][6]. Supply and Demand Factors - The current commodity price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security. On the supply side, the control of strategic resources is intensifying amid great power competition, leading to increased scarcity in key mineral sectors. On the demand side, real needs driven by the AI technology revolution, energy transition, and military spending are boosting demand for strategic metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths. A weak dollar cycle may support the elevation of commodity price levels [2][6]. Price Movement Patterns - Historically, during a commodity price increase, there are price rotations among commodities due to their interdependencies and relationships within the supply chain. For instance, during the demand expansion-driven price increase from 2009 to 2011, copper led the rise, followed by crude oil and soybeans. In the supply constraint-driven price increase from 2016 to 2018, oil and black commodities rose first, with chemical products showing sustained price increases [2][6]. Future Outlook - There is a strong belief in the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices. The focus for the current price increase should be on supply constraint elasticity, with expansion likely moving from emerging industry demand to the recovery of traditional demand. Key supply constraints include production capacity limits for critical resources like copper and rare earths, capacity restrictions driven by "anti-involution" policies, and supply shortages driven by high AI demand. Demand opportunities are expected to arise from the transition between new and old driving forces in sectors like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and AIDC [3][7].

Core Viewpoint - The primary investment opportunity identified is in resource commodities, particularly precious metals, which have shown strong performance in terms of returns and Sharpe ratios since November of last year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Precious metals like silver, copper, and gold have led global asset performance, with a significant acceleration in their market activity observed in the past few weeks [1]. - The market is currently pricing in a medium to long-term supply-demand imbalance and expectations of a weaker dollar, with short-term catalysts being the anticipated easing of monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. - The Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program introduced in December is believed to have a more substantial impact on liquidity than initially recognized, contributing to a new bullish trend in commodities [1]. Group 2: Comparative Asset Analysis - Other major asset classes face specific concerns: U.S. equities are at risk of over-investment due to AI capital expenditures diverging from returns on invested capital; European equities are hindered by economic weakness and slow fiscal policy implementation; Japanese equities struggle with conflicting monetary and fiscal policies; emerging markets are affected by tariff uncertainties and a slowing weak dollar narrative [2]. - In the bond market, increased government debt issuance due to fiscal expansion is expected to suppress bond prices, while oil prices lack upward momentum due to an oversupply situation [2]. Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, liquidity improvements and expectations of monetary easing are driving commodity price increases, with an estimated $600 billion liquidity boost expected from RMP and TGA releases [3]. - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts and even a return to quantitative easing, although this is contingent on economic data trends [3]. - Mid-term demand for resources is expected to grow significantly, particularly in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles, with copper demand projected to increase by over 20% by 2030 compared to 2024 levels [4]. Group 4: Long-term Trends - A prolonged weak dollar environment is anticipated, which will support commodity prices as the U.S. economic growth potential faces constraints [5]. - Geopolitical tensions are expected to exacerbate resource competition, leading to supply-side disruptions as countries increase their strategic reserves of various metals [5].

Group 1 - The current A-share market ecosystem is undergoing systematic restructuring, with a solid foundation for a "long bull, slow bull" market being established. The strategic position of the capital market has significantly improved, and the institutional framework is becoming more refined, providing a solid guarantee for stable market operations [5][14] - The "New Nine Articles" are promoting a transformation of the market from being financing-led to a balanced focus on both financing and investment, leading to continuous improvements in the quality of listed companies and investor protection [5] - The profitability of core assets is showing signs of a turning point, with both technology and traditional sectors presenting structural opportunities, and the matching of valuation and profitability is improving [5] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to gradually unfold, supported by factors that have driven previous market activity, including liquidity factors such as margin trading and insurance capital, which are anticipated to continue into January [6] - The macroeconomic environment, including the previous appreciation of the RMB, is creating a favorable atmosphere for liquidity and risk appetite, with potential catalysts such as policy adjustments and improvements in fundamental data expected in January [6] - After a two-month earnings window, listed companies will once again face fundamental verification as they enter the earnings forecast disclosure window in January [6] Group 3 - A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with structural inflows of incremental funds anticipated in January, supported by the appreciation of the RMB and foreign capital positioning at the year-end [7] - Market sentiment appears slightly subdued, with industry preferences concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense, suggesting that investors should focus on large-cap styles and policy-related industry opportunities [7] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a period of explosive growth, with the current phase being the initial stage of large-scale infrastructure development, accelerating towards commercial applications [13] - The "Space Power" goal is clearly defined, with national strategic support guiding the industry, and the low-orbit satellite internet constellation is set to begin high-density networking by 2025, marking a critical window for large-scale networking from 2025 to 2027 [13] Group 5 - A weak dollar cycle is expected to boost the performance of A/H shares, as it drives domestic exports and improves corporate profits, with global liquidity easing valuations and funds favoring high-growth emerging markets [14] - Structural improvements in sectors such as technology and domestic demand are anticipated to benefit from corporate profit recovery, leading to a rebound in these areas [14]

Core Viewpoint - CICC predicts that by 2026, the Trump administration will shift towards a dual approach of fiscal and monetary easing, which will benefit both US and Chinese stock markets as well as gold, silver, and copper [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve is expected to normalize its balance sheet expansion, releasing liquidity to alleviate three major issues in the US economy: confidence disturbances, stagnation in small business expansion, and weakness in the real estate sector [1] - A loose monetary environment is favorable for the technology, industrial, and resource sectors, while also promoting a trend of dollar depreciation [1] Group 2: Currency and Market Impact - During a weak dollar cycle, there is potential for the renminbi to appreciate, leading to a global rebalancing of funds that will boost A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - New economy sectors are expected to continue leading the market, while the consumer demand sector is likely to experience a rebound [1] Group 3: Inflation-Linked Assets - Assets such as gold, silver, and copper are anticipated to benefit from inflationary trends [1]