【中金2026展望：泡沫加速！美国"财政主导"利好中美股市和金银铜】中金公司预计，2026年特朗普政 府将转向财政货币双宽松，美联储常态化扩表释放流动性，缓解美国经济三大症结（信心扰动、小企业 扩张迟滞、地产疲弱）。宽松环境利好科技、工业、资源板块，并推动美元趋势性贬值。弱美元周期 下，人民币有升值空间，全球资金再平衡将提振A/港股，新经济板块持续领跑，消费内需板块有望补 涨。金银铜等顺通胀资产受益。 ...

Group 1 - The weak US dollar is driving a global economic recovery, boosting domestic export growth and profit improvement in China [1] - Global monetary policy and liquidity are becoming more accommodative, raising valuations for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - Increased foreign capital inflow is expected to support A-shares, driven by a weak dollar and domestic policy catalysts [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's policies since 2025 have hindered the nominal economic recovery in the US, but a shift in focus towards domestic issues may lead to fiscal and monetary easing in 2026 [2] - The easing environment is expected to alleviate three major constraints on the US economy, including weak consumer confidence and sluggish housing demand [2] - The technology, industrial, and resource sectors in the US are anticipated to continue leading the market in 2026, while consumer and financial sectors may catch up as the nominal cycle improves [2] Group 3 - A weaker dollar may provide room for the renminbi to appreciate, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and year-end foreign exchange settlement peaks [3] - The anticipated trend of abundant dollar liquidity suggests that the US dollar is likely in a depreciation phase, which may support the renminbi [3]

Group 1: Overall Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a significant transformation due to geopolitical shifts and economic changes, leading to a re-evaluation of resource values and pricing mechanisms [18][24][25] - The year 2025 marked a historic bull market for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, which redefined their financial and hedging attributes [18][27] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown remarkable performance, with the Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals Index achieving an annual increase of 87.05%, outperforming major market indices [20] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The long-term bullish logic supporting gold remains intact, with expectations for a structured upward trend in gold prices through 2026, driven by a weakening US dollar and rising debt risks [3][34] - The anticipated transition in US Federal Reserve leadership is expected to create short-term trading opportunities around gold prices, influenced by market uncertainties [4][34] - The demand for gold from central banks is expected to slow down, impacting the overall market dynamics for gold in the near term [3][34] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper supply is entering a long-term structural bottleneck, with a significant decrease in new mine production expected by 2026, enhancing the bargaining power of core mines [5][9] - The smelting sector is facing a "zero processing fee" era, leading to accelerated industry consolidation as high-cost smelting enterprises exit the market [9][10] - The fundamental support for copper prices is strong, with an expected widening supply-demand gap in 2026, indicating a trend of rising prices [9][10] Group 4: Aluminum Market Trends - The aluminum industry is witnessing a shift in value dynamics, with a focus on structural premiums due to increased reliance on imported resources [10][11] - The market for alumina is expected to face challenges due to oversupply and pressure on profitability, while the electrolytic aluminum sector is poised for growth driven by energy value [10][11] - The profitability within the aluminum industry is anticipated to concentrate further towards the downstream smelting segment, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] Group 5: Lithium Market Outlook - The lithium market is projected to experience a dual increase in supply and demand in 2026, although there are risks of mismatched release rhythms [11][12] - The recovery in lithium prices is expected to be supported by a rebound in demand from the energy storage sector, despite uncertainties in the electric vehicle market [11][13] - Investors are advised to monitor the construction and installation pace of domestic energy storage projects to better capture investment opportunities in the lithium sector [11][13]

有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 +政策托底+产业升级，股市机会成本下降，风险溢价改善，面对即将迎来的"春季行情"，或可积极把 握。 揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、 黄金、稀土、锂等行业，相较投资单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配 置。数据显示，截至12月11日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.35亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指 数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全 市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 每日经济新闻 12月17日午后，有色板块持续走强，有色龙头ETF（159876）涨逾3%。昨日，有色龙头ETF（159876） 单日吸金1013万元，近20日累计吸金1.98亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市行情，积极入场抢筹。 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处 ...

2026 年金属年度策略：百花盛开 20251207 摘要 全球经济预计软着陆并复苏，制造业 PMI 回升至 50 以上，叠加低库存 和弱美元周期，为有色金属市场提供有利宏观环境，预计美国 2026 年 或降息两到三次，高赤字和宽财政政策短期内难以改变。 中国出口压力缓解，房地产下滑趋势收敛，国内流动性与全球同步宽松， 中美经济前景总体乐观，低库存和供给侧受限对商品有利，预计 2026 年全球贸易活力依旧旺盛，钢铁出口需求相对较好。 黄金边际定价者变化，央行增持黄金以保值，目前黄金在央行储备占比 约 20%，远低于历史中位数，未来金价预计维持平台震荡或震荡上行， 即使金价不上涨，多数矿业公司也具备成长潜力，预测 2026 年金价可 能涨超 4,800 美元。 预计 2026 年全球电解铝增量约 120 万吨，增速 1.7%，2027 年增至 220 万吨以上，增速超 3%。中国电解铝需求预计增长 2%，海外需求 增速 2.4%-2.5%，需求增速高于供给，低库存下电解铝价格或进一步 上涨，看好电解铝市场表现。 Q&A 请简要介绍一下 2026 年有色金属行业的整体预期。 2026 年预计将是有色金属行业表现非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition from a strong dollar cycle to a weak dollar cycle, highlighting the expected decline of the US dollar and its implications for global assets and currencies [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Dollar Cycle Phases - The dollar has experienced various cycles since 1971, with the current phase being a weak dollar cycle that has lasted over a year [1]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a significant decline in the DXY dollar index to 89 by the end of 2026, approximately 10% lower than the current level of 99.7 [2]. Currency Predictions - By the end of 2026, the euro is expected to rise from 1.1533 to 1.27 against the dollar, and the British pound from 1.3111 to 1.47 [2]. - The dollar is projected to fall against the Japanese yen from 154 to 124 [2]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts the dollar to yuan exchange rate to drop to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [2]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve recently lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, signaling a gradual easing approach [2]. - Market expectations for further rate cuts in 2026 have decreased, with a potential terminal rate approaching 3% [2]. Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - Interest rate differentials are narrowing, with the Fed's rate cuts and the European Central Bank's slower rate cuts expected to reduce the dollar's carry trade advantage [3]. - Fiscal policies, including the anticipated tax cuts under Trump, are projected to increase federal deficits significantly, contributing to a weaker dollar [3]. - Global trust in the dollar as a safe asset is diminishing due to geopolitical tensions and economic policies, with the IMF reporting the lowest global dollar reserve share since 1995 [3]. Asset Rotation and Market Sentiment - A clear rotation in global assets is anticipated, with risk assets rebounding and commodity prices rising as the dollar weakens [7]. - Institutions like Allianz, UBS, and Bank of America recognize the consensus on a weaker dollar, shifting market logic towards buying non-dollar assets [7]. - UBS has upgraded emerging market stocks to overweight, particularly favoring Chinese stocks due to their relative valuation and low foreign investor holdings [7].

Group 1 - The cost of hedging dollar exposure for Asian investors has dropped to its lowest level since April, averaging 0.7%, indicating a potential opportunity for risk-averse investors [1][2] - The decline in hedging costs is attributed to expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the easing cycles of Asian central banks are nearing an end [1][4] - There is a growing demand for dollar hedging among Asian investors, particularly in capital-exporting economies in North Asia, due to concerns over a weakening dollar [1][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has recently cut rates by 25 basis points and signaled further policy easing, while other Asian central banks are expected to conclude their easing cycles [4] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen approximately 8% year-to-date, with institutions like Goldman Sachs predicting continued dollar depreciation [4] - A report from Deutsche Bank indicates that inflows into dollar-hedged ETFs have surpassed those into non-hedged ETFs for the first time in a decade, highlighting the increasing demand for hedging [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent positive factors have collectively strengthened the RMB, with the exchange rate rising since mid-August and aligning closer to the central parity. Weak US labor market data and expectations of interest rate cuts have contributed to this trend. The RMB's appreciation is expected to continue in the context of a potential new round of US dollar depreciation driven by fiscal and monetary policies under the "Trump Reset" initiative [2][10]. Group 1: RMB Strengthening Factors - The RMB exchange rate has strengthened since mid-August, with the onshore rate approaching 7.10 and the offshore rate surpassing 7.10, marking new highs since November 2024 [4]. - Weak US labor market data, including significant downward revisions to non-farm employment and lower-than-expected job openings, have led to increased market expectations for interest rate cuts [4][5]. - China's exports have shown resilience, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.9% from January to August 2025, exceeding market expectations [4]. Group 2: Impact of Weak Dollar on Emerging Markets - A weak dollar typically boosts global investment demand and economic growth in emerging markets, benefiting the profitability of export-oriented companies [3]. - The weak dollar enhances capital flows into emerging markets, improving their balance sheets and encouraging capital expenditures, which in turn supports economic recovery [12][21]. - Historical data indicates that a one standard deviation depreciation of the dollar index leads to a 0.16% increase in monthly capital inflows to emerging market equities [21]. Group 3: A/H Share Market Dynamics - The weak dollar and loose monetary conditions are expected to improve the profitability, valuation, and liquidity of A/H shares [26]. - A weak dollar typically leads to increased foreign capital inflows into the A/H market, with significant inflows observed in 2025, contrasting with net outflows in the previous year [35]. - The Hang Seng Index has shown greater elasticity to the dollar index compared to the CSI 300, with respective elasticities of -2.5 and -1.2, indicating a stronger response to dollar depreciation [40]. Group 4: Sector Performance under Currency Fluctuations - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to favor growth sectors in the A/H market, particularly in information technology and materials [50]. - Under a weak dollar scenario, A-share growth and value styles have shown average monthly returns of 3.6% and 2.6%, respectively, while the corresponding figures for Hong Kong stocks are 3.4% and 2.2% [51]. - Specific sectors such as consumer staples, materials, finance, and information technology are anticipated to perform well during periods of RMB appreciation [28][50].

Group 1 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls for July and August significantly below expectations, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [5][6] - Inflation data remains moderate, with the U.S. CPI growth rate at 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.1%, suggesting that tariff impacts on inflation are manageable [5][6] - Market expectations are heavily leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 96.1% probability assigned to this outcome [2][6] Group 2 - Analysts predict that a weaker dollar is likely to continue, which may lead to a reallocation of global funds and support the performance of gold [8][10] - The current economic environment in the U.S. is characterized by "stagflation-like" tendencies, with declining consumer confidence and investment willingness [9] - The anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a favorable environment for gold, with prices already showing a significant increase of nearly 40% year-to-date [10][11] Group 3 - The impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on the U.S. stock market is expected to vary, with potential short-term liquidity injections but possible long-term volatility [12][13] - Historical patterns suggest that U.S. stocks may not experience significant downward adjustments during preventive rate cuts, especially in the absence of other negative factors [13] - The Chinese stock market may benefit from the weaker dollar and a restructuring of global monetary order, with small-cap stocks in sectors like biotechnology and AI gaining attention [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the shift in global capital flows due to the weakening of the US dollar and emphasizes the historical opportunity for asset revaluation in the context of China's rising national strength following the recent military parade [1] Group 1 - The weakening US dollar is prompting a significant capital shift towards other markets, particularly in Asia [1] - The recent military parade showcased China's growing strength, which may influence global perceptions and investment strategies [1] - There is an ongoing historical opportunity for asset revaluation as China's national fortunes improve [1]