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商品价格普遍上涨——全球经济观察2026年第2期【陈兴团队•华福宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2026-03-01 03:18
报 告 正 文 1.全球资产价格表现 商品普遍上涨。 股市方面,本周全球主要股市涨多跌少,标普500、道琼斯和纳斯达克指数分别下跌0.4%、1.3%和1%。债市方面,海外主要市场债市收益率多数下 行,10年期美债收益率较上周下行11bp。商品方面,美伊地缘风险推动商品价格普涨。原油价格上涨,WTI原油和布伦特原油较上周分别上行3.8%和4.9%,伦敦金 价上升3.3%。汇率方面,美元指数回落0.1%,离岸人民币兑美元升值0.5%。 | | | 2. 主要央行货币政策 美联储正推进"去监管"。 2月26日,美联储副主席鲍曼在国会发表证词,系统阐述了对银行业监管框架的全面改革计划。她表示,对于社区银行,美联储正推动提 高法定资产门槛、修订数十年未变的反洗钱报告标准,并简化并购审批流程,赋予其更大资本灵活性,使其专注于服务经济。对于大型银行,美联储也在推动对监 管框架的修订,包括资本框架的四大支柱进行调整:压力测试、补充杠杆率、巴塞尔协议III框架以及全球系统重要性银行附加费。 欧央行方面, 拉加德表示预期 中期内通胀率将稳定在2%的目标水平,因此月初继续维持政策利率不变。 日央行方面, 日本央行行长暗示,若春季工 ...
美国降息预期升温——全球经济观察第6期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-08-02 16:02
Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets showed weakness, with major indices declining: S&P 500 down 2.4%, Dow Jones down 2.9%, and Nasdaq down 2.2% compared to last week [2][3] - Most government bond yields fell, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreasing by 17 basis points [2][3] - Oil prices increased, likely due to geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S. threats to sanction Russia [2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1% [2][3] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at the current level for the fifth consecutive meeting, with some internal dissent among board members [4] - The Bank of Japan decided to keep its benchmark short-term interest rate at 0.5% and raised its core inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 to 2.7% [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - U.S. GDP for Q2 rebounded to an annualized rate of 3%, but private domestic final purchases fell to 1.2%, indicating a slowdown in domestic demand [7][8] - Non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, but previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 258,000 jobs [8] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, with a decline in labor force participation rate to 62.2%, the lowest since early 2023 [8] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone economic growth slowed significantly in Q2, with GDP growth dropping from 0.6% in Q1 to 0.1% [19] - Germany and Italy experienced negative GDP growth in Q2, contributing to the overall slowdown in the Eurozone [19] - Japan's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.9 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector due to weak demand [20]