Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The 2505 contract of soybean oil may run in a box - range in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal may fluctuate in a range in the short - term [2]. - **Corn**: The short - term corn futures price will fluctuate in a range, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. - **Copper**: The copper price may be forming a bubble. It is recommended to wait patiently for weakness signals, and aggressive investors can follow the short - term trend [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [6]. - **Steel**: The market sentiment of steel has improved, and the price has rebounded from a low level [7]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: There is an expectation of the eleventh round of price cuts for coke, and both coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly at a low level [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore will mainly oscillate in the short - term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recently, the crude oil price depends on market games, and the key support for the WTI main contract is around $65 per barrel [10]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price will mainly oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the downstream resumption of work in the Shanghai rubber market, and the support level is around 16,600 - 16,800 yuan per ton [12]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, there is a lack of fundamental positive drivers, and the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price of soda ash is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,420 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazil's 2024/25 soybean crop harvest rate is faster than last year. South America's new season may have a bumper harvest. In the short - term, the supply and downstream demand of soybean oil in China may remain neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,150 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3,190 yuan/ton (0), Rizhao 3,160 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3,090 yuan/ton (-50) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - US tariff policy has caused market panic. During the South American harvest window, pay attention to the weather in the producing areas. The Sino - US trade tariff issue suppresses the export demand of US soybeans. In March - April, soybean meal supply may be tight, and it is expected to turn loose later. Terminal demand is average, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The inventory of oil mills has increased significantly [2]. Corn - **Spot Market**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn vary in different regions, such as 2,087 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,317 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, etc. [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report shows a year - on - year decrease in production and ending inventory. Affected by the tariff event, US corn has rebounded, supporting the import cost. The domestic spring selling pressure is lower than in previous years, and the impact of imported corn is reduced. The downstream consumption is expected to increase, but the policy grain release drags down the market [3]. Copper - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 81,420 - 81,710 yuan, up 540 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 22.88, down 6.96 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Under the background of global uncertainties and tariff expectations, there are differences between the US and non - US regions. The Fed's continuous maintenance of the status quo reflects this. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material impact on the copper industry is still extreme, and the copper price is in a stage of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Market**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 74,150 yuan/ton (-100), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 72,300 yuan/ton (-100) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium ore has loosened. The supply is increasing but at a slower pace. The demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive the price up. With cost support weakening and inventory pressure, the price has dropped [5][6]. Steel - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,260 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 80.58%, the social inventory is 6.28 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.2578 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving. The cost is rising, and the inventory is accumulating at a low level. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [7]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Spot Market**: The price of main coking coal (e.g., Mongolian 5) is 1,270 yuan/ton, and the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1,370 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.8623 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.0013 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is low, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Market**: The Platts index of iron ore is 103.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 781 yuan, and the price of Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 782 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors. The Fed's interest - rate cut signal provides some support, and the price may rebound if the demand improves [9]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: OPEC+ has issued a new production - cut policy. The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations are affecting the market. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the WTI price is supported around $65 per barrel [10]. Rubber - **Spot Market**: The prices of different types of rubber vary, such as 16,450 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is also increasing. The market is affected by macro - events. The price may oscillate weakly [12]. PVC - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The production start - up rate has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory is still high. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [13]. Soda Ash - **Spot Market**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,510.50 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply has decreased due to device maintenance, the inventory is declining, and the demand is average. The market may oscillate widely in the short - term [14].