| | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/08/21 | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | 农产品中心 | | 176 期货从业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号。 | | 国分 陈凡生 | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/19 | 一口价变动 | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 天津 | 9660 | 9860 | -200 | 5000 | | | | | | 张家港 | 9540 | 9740 | -200 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 | 9510 | 9710 B | -200 | 3000 2000 | | | | | | 级豆油 | 2025/08/20 | 2025/08/19 | 一口价变动 | 1000 | | | | | | 大 ...

| | | | | | | 油脂数据日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ITG国贸期货 | | | | | | 国贸期货出品 | | | 2025/08/19 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | | 农产品中心 | | | 期货从业证号 | 176 | 投资咨询证号 | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号。 | | | | | 国分 陈凡生 | | | F03117830 | | Z0022681 | | | 2025/08/15 | | 24度棕櫚油 | 2025/08/18 | | 一口价变动 | | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 9710 | | 一大津 | | 9440 | 270 | 5000 | | | | | | | 9640 | | 张家港 | | 9370 | 270 | 4000 | | | | | | | 9300 | | 黄浦 | 9570 | | 270 | 3000 2000 | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on oils and fats as the bullish drivers are temporarily hard to disprove [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the spot and futures prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as relevant market data and news, suggesting a long - position in the oils and fats market due to non - falsifiable bullish drivers [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Different Data Spot Price - On August 13, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9520, 9450, and 9380 respectively, with a daily increase of 120 [1] - The spot prices of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8720, 8840, and 8820 respectively, with a daily increase of 170 [1] - The spot prices of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 10260, 10310, and 10520 respectively, with a daily increase of 500 [1] Futures Data - On August 13, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 848, up 38 from the previous day; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1488, up 162 [1] - The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 1420, unchanged; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 22170, an increase of 216; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3487, unchanged [1] Market News - The Ministry of Commerce preliminarily ruled that imported Canadian rapeseed was dumped. From August 14, 2025, importers need to pay a 75.8% deposit on Canadian companies [2] - Affected by the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic long - term rapeseed procurement progress is slow. The imported rapeseed arrival volume in August is expected to be about 200,000 tons, and the average monthly arrival volume from September to October is about 130,000 tons [2] - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: Palm oil production increased 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - From August 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month [2] - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased 23.3% and 23.7% respectively compared with the same period last month according to ITS and AmSpec [2] - The USDA report adjusted the new - crop soybean yield per acre from 52.5 bushels/acre to a record high of 53.6 bushels/acre but unexpectedly reduced the 2025/26 US soybean planting area by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, resulting in a 43 million - bushel reduction in production to 4.292 billion bushels [2] - The US soybean and corn good - to - excellent rates as of August 10 were 68% and 72% respectively, in line with market expectations [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests going long on the palm oil 09 contract and the soybean oil 09 contract [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Data Spot Price - On August 7, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Tianjin was 9120 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous day; in Zhangjiagang it was 9050 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Huangpu it was 9000 yuan, up 50 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8550 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Zhangjiagang it was 8630 yuan, up 50 yuan; in Huangpu it was 8670 yuan, up 50 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang was 9630 yuan, down 70 yuan; in Wuhan it was 9680 yuan, down 70 yuan; in Chengdu it was 9890 yuan, down 70 yuan [1] Futures Data - On August 7, 2025, the price difference between the soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 544, up 20 from the previous day; the price difference between the rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1090, down 66 [1] - The palm oil warehouse receipts were 570, unchanged; the soybean oil warehouse receipts were 15370, an increase of 3830; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487, unchanged [1] Import Data of India - In July, India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons; soybean oil imports soared by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% month - on - month to 201,000 tons; total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% month - on - month to 1.53 million tons [2] Malaysian Data - Bloomberg's July MPOB forecast: production increased by 8.3% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, imports were 50,000 tons, exports increased by 3.2% to 1.3 million tons, local consumption was 250,000 - 450,000 tons, and inventory increased by 10% to 2.23 million tons [2] - From July 1 - 31, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit increased by 7.19% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02% month - on - month, and production increased by 7.07% month - on - month [2] - According to ITS, from July 1 - 31, exports decreased by 6.7% compared to the previous month; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 9.6% compared to the previous month [2] Other Data - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August to $910.91 per metric ton, up from $877.89 in July, and the export tax will increase from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton [2] - From July 27 to August 2, Brazil's soybean exports were 2.5504 million tons, up from 2.2902 million tons the previous week [2] - In the next two weeks, the overall precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas is good, which is beneficial to the soybean yield per unit [2] - As of the week ending July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the flowering rate was 76% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests caution as the oils and fats market may experience a correction after the cooling of macro - sentiment, and recommends a wait - and - see approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Spot Price Information - **Palm Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 9070, down 50 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 9020, down 50; and in Huangpu it was 8920, down 50 [1]. - **Grade I Soybean Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Tianjin was 8270, up 20 from July 28; in Zhangjiagang it was 8370, up 20; and in Huangpu it was 8320, up 20 [1]. - **Grade IV Rapeseed Oil**: On July 29, 2025, the spot price in Zhangjiagang was 9590, up 50 from July 28; in Wuhan it was 9610, up 50; and in Chengdu it was 9820, up 50 [1]. Futures Data - **Contract Spreads**: On July 29, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 744, up 82 from July 28; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1266, down 20 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On July 29, 2025, palm oil warehouse receipts were 570, unchanged; soybean oil warehouse receipts were 21113, down 382; and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487, unchanged [1]. Palm Oil Supply and Demand Information - **Indonesia**: In May, due to a surge in exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. Exports reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% year - on - year increase. May's crude palm oil production was 4.17 million tons, lower than April but a 7.2% increase from last year [2]. - **Malaysia**: From July 1 - 20, the yield per unit area increased 7.03% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased 6.19% month - on - month. Export data from different institutions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous month [2]. - **India**: In June, India's palm oil imports increased 61% month - on - month to 953,000 tons, the highest in 11 months [2]. Other Information - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [2]. - **Australian Rapeseed**: Australian rapeseed is expected to enter the domestic market, which will alleviate the shortage of rapeseed imports caused by the tense China - Canada relationship [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The market is concerned about the demand for palm oil and the impact of international crude oil on palm oil. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil futures main contract is 8,336 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is -24 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [2] - The futures trading volume of the active palm oil contract is 428,231 lots, a decrease of 3,330 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 470 lots [2] - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of palm oil are 41,923 lots, a decrease of 8,481 lots; the settlement price of BMD crude palm oil futures is 3,959 Malaysian ringgit/ton, down 33 ringgit/ton [2] - The settlement price of NYMEX light crude oil futures is $65.11 per barrel, down $0.41 [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Zhangjiagang, it is 8,530 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it is 8,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil is $1,005 per ton, unchanged; the CNF price is $1,043 per ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the palm oil main contract is 94 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Malaysia's palm oil production in the month is 1,685,962 tons, an increase of 298,531 tons; exports are 1,102,266 tons, an increase of 96,719 tons; the ending inventory is 1,865,537 tons, an increase of 302,720 tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the month is 4.9 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons; exports are 2.88 million tons, unchanged; the inventory is 3.05 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons [2] - The FOB price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil is $49.48 per ton, an increase of $7.35 [2] - SGS's daily palm oil export volume is 847,695 tons, an increase of 185,115 tons; ITS's daily export volume data is not clearly presented in a comparable way [2] - The weekly palm oil inventory is 759,881 tons, an increase of 246,668 tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil import profit is -499.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.08 yuan/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of palm oil (customs statistics) is 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons [2] - The national port inventory of soybean oil is 857,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly port inventory of rapeseed oil is 752,500 tons, an increase of 13,200 tons [2] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil is 8,929.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.08 yuan/ton [2] - The ex - factory price of first - grade bulk soybean oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu is 8,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian is 9,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is -230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysia's annual food use of palm oil is 870,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons; industrial use is 3.1 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Indonesia's annual food use of palm oil is 7.4 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; industrial use is 13.75 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons [2] - China's annual food use of palm oil is 3.6 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons; industrial use is 2.3 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for palm oil is 17.85%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.89%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of palm oil is 19.08%, a decrease of 0.82 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 22.69%, unchanged [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in June decreased by 0.65% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 0.23% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.08% month - on - month [2] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an increase of 11.7% compared to May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to the previous month [2] - On Monday, edible oil importers cancelled 6,500 tons of crude palm oil import orders originally scheduled to arrive at Indian ports from July to September [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - After the stagnation or decline of crude oil, the oils and fats are expected to experience a compensatory decline due to the weak fundamentals. It is recommended to take short positions with a light hand or buy put options [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - **24 - degree palm oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu remained unchanged compared to the previous day at 8640, 8570, and 8490 respectively [1] - **First - grade soybean oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu decreased by 20 compared to the previous day, reaching 8140, 8240, and 8190 respectively [1] - **Fourth - grade rapeseed oil**: On June 25, 2025, the prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu decreased by 100 compared to the previous day, reaching 9680, 9700, and 9880 respectively [1] 3.2 Futures Data - **Soybean - palm oil main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was - 360, an increase of 16 compared to the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - soybean main contract spread**: On June 25, 2025, it was 1492, a decrease of 130 compared to the previous day [1] - **Palm oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 0 [1] - **Soybean oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 18882 [1] - **Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts**: On June 25, 2025, it remained at 100 [1] 3.3 Palm Oil Information - **Malaysian production**: According to MPOA, from June 1 - 20, production decreased by 4.55% compared to the same period last month; according to SPPOMA, from June 1 - 20, production increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month, from June 1 - 15, it decreased by 4%, from June 1 - 10, it decreased by 17%, and from June 1 - 5, it increased by 10% [2] - **Malaysian exports**: According to ITS, from June 1 - 25, exports increased by 7% compared to the previous period; from June 1 - 20, exports increased by 14% compared to the same period last month; from June 1 - 15, it increased by 26.3%; from June 1 - 10, it increased by 26.3% [2] - **Weather**: Malaysian precipitation is expected to be moderately low, which is beneficial for current production [2] 3.4 Soybean Information - **Argentine soybean harvest**: As of June 18, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 soybean season in Argentina was 96.5%, 3.3 percentage points higher than a week ago but still 2 percentage points behind last year. Early - sown soybeans were 98.4% harvested with an average yield of 3.16 tons per hectare, and late - sown soybeans were 91% harvested with an average yield of 2.5 tons per hectare [2] - **US soybean situation**: According to USDA, as of the week ending June 22, the sowing progress of US soybeans reached 96%, higher than the previous week's 93% but lower than the analysts' average expectation of 97% and the five - year average of 97%. The emergence rate was 90%, higher than the previous week's 84% and in line with the historical average. The first - reported flowering rate this week was 8%, higher than last year's and the historical average of 7%. The good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as last week and lower than the analysts' expectation of 67% [2] - **US weather**: Precipitation in the US is expected to be moderately high in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for improving soil moisture [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the influence of US biodiesel news, soybean oil and palm oil are considered bullish in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is to be put under temporary observation due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price Data - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8870, 8820, and 8800 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 80, and 0 compared to June 18 [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8400, and 8360 respectively, with price changes of 70, 50, and 70 compared to June 18 [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 9920, and 10100 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and 20 compared to June 18 [1] 2. Futures Data - **Spread between Main Contracts**: On June 19, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 386, up 48 from June 18; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1539, down 80 from June 18 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, 2025, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 540, 17552, and 100 respectively, with no change compared to June 18 [1] 3. Policy and Trade Data - **US Biodiesel Policy**: EPA's expected biomass diesel BBD blending obligations for 2026 - 2027 are 56.1 and 58.6 billion gallons respectively, exceeding the previous market expectation of 46.5 - 52.5 billion gallons [1] - **Indian Imports**: In May, India's sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports were 183555 tons, 398585 tons, and 592888 tons respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.9%, 10.42%, and 84.44%; the total vegetable oil imports were 1187068 tons, a 33.15% month - on - month increase [1] 4. Production and Inventory Data - **MPOB May Data**: Palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 67900 tons, an 18.32% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; consumption was 327600 tons, a 3.36% month - on - month decrease; and the ending inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase [1] - **June High - frequency Data**: From June 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 26.3% (ITS data) or 17.77% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month [1] - **Argentine Soybean Production**: As of June 11, the 24/25 soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, 2.8 percentage points behind the same period last year [2] - **US Soybean Production**: As of June 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [2] 5. Other Factors - **Weather**: Future two - week precipitation for US soybeans is moderately high, and Malaysia's precipitation is expected to be neutral [1][2] - **Trade Relations**: There is an expectation of easing China - Canada trade relations [2] - **Domestic Supply**: In the short - term, the low rapeseed inventory makes the supply of rapeseed oil tight, but the supply may be supplemented in the far - month due to the expected easing of trade relations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and mid - term investors should watch for band - buying opportunities [1][2] - Copper prices have not completely shaken off the influence of moving averages, with the upper limit of the moving average system as the overall defense line [3] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and investors can short at high prices [5][6] - For black commodities, negative feedback is gradually reflected in the market, and investors can take a long position at low levels [7] - Coking coal and coke may oscillate weakly at low levels due to ample supply [8] - Iron ore 2509 may oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9] - WTI crude oil may oscillate between $55 and $65 per barrel [10] - Rubber may oscillate, with an overall supply exceeding demand [11][12] - PVC futures prices may oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [13][14] - Soda ash futures may continue to oscillate widely in the short - term [15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Oil - **Spot Market**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang Yijiang is 8310 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - **International Soybeans**: In the current time frame, it is the season for US soybean sowing and growth and South American soybean harvesting and export. Brazil's soybean harvest is almost complete, and the new South American soybean crop is likely to be a bumper harvest. The USDA May 2025 report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared to 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season [1] - **Domestic Industry**: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of imported South American soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [1] 3.2 Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 2830 yuan/ton (- 20), 2930 yuan/ton (- 10), and 2890 yuan/ton (+ 20) respectively [1] - **Market Analysis**: Macroscopically, China and the US have reached a phased trade agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Internationally, US soybean prices have risen due to weather speculation caused by rainfall in the producing areas. Domestically, soybean supply is gradually recovering, oil mill operating rates are increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to shift from tight to loose. As downstream enterprises build safety stocks, they will switch to a just - in - time procurement and rolling replenishment model. Oil mill soybean inventories have risen to a high level, and the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation is slow in the short term [1] 3.3 Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia is 2195 yuan/ton; in key enterprises in North China and the Huanghuai region, it is 2414 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port (15% moisture/content 680 - 720) and Bayuquan (content 680 - 730/15% moisture) are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton [1] - **Market Analysis**: Externally, the China - US joint statement on tariff reduction has led to expectations of looser long - term corn imports, which affects short - term prices emotionally but has limited negative impact on domestic futures prices. The May USDA report has raised US corn production and ending stocks, which is negative for US corn futures. Domestically, as the weather warms and the planting season approaches, the remaining grain in the producing areas has basically been sold. The north - south ports have started the de - stocking process, reducing short - term supply pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with cautious purchasing by downstream enterprises, low breeding profits leading to on - demand procurement by breeding enterprises, and low operating rates of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses. Under the influence of the easing of China - US relations and the news of policy grain release, futures prices have declined periodically [1][2] 3.4 Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78630 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton, with a premium of 200 - 350 yuan/ton. The imported copper ore index is - 43.05, up 0.06 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the gradual easing of tariff confrontations is conducive to a positive outlook for the commodity market, in line with the international background and the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle in 2025. Domestically, continuous policy support from the central bank, the CSRC, and the finance department has boosted market sentiment. However, raw material shocks are intensifying, and the mining problem has not been completely resolved. With the rapid decline of domestic copper inventories, the game between reality and expectation, as well as between the domestic and foreign markets, has intensified, complicating market analysis [3] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 63000 yuan/ton (- 300), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 60850 yuan/ton (- 450). The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2150 yuan/ton (+ 100) [4] - **Market Analysis**: Fundamentally, the prices of various ores in the cost side have dropped significantly. Although the production cost of lithium carbonate has decreased, the profit margin has not expanded due to the rapid decline in lithium salt prices. In terms of supply, the weekly operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry has slightly decreased, but the overall output remains high. As the temperature rises, the production capacity of salt - lake lithium extraction will further increase, and the supply of low - cost lithium salt will increase, potentially suppressing market prices. In terms of demand, the production of cathode materials is stable, and the power battery market is growing steadily. The terminal consumer market has potential due to the launch of new technology models and policy incentives, but it is not strong enough to drive prices up. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory has continued to accumulate. As of May 16, the weekly inventory is 131920 (+ 351) physical tons, including 56522 (+ 1670) physical tons in smelters, 41428 (- 728) physical tons in downstream enterprises, and 33970 (- 591) physical tons in other sectors. The monthly inventory in April is 96202 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 51% and a month - on - month increase of 7%, with downstream inventory at 45169 (+ 5876) physical tons and smelter inventory at 51033 (+ 256) physical tons. Overall, due to the weakening cost support and macro - disturbances, both spot and futures prices have declined, and the subsequent focus is on the 60,000 yuan/ton integer support level [5] 3.6 Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170 yuan/ton, the operating rate in Tangshan is 83.56%, the social inventory of rebar is 532.76 million tons, and the inventory in rebar steel mills is 200.4 million tons [7] - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of the steel industry are gradually improving, with a weaker near - term and stronger long - term outlook, and the contango structure has weakened. The current valuation of steel is moderately low. In terms of cost and inventory, policy support for the real estate industry is helping it to stabilize. The apparent demand for steel has decreased year - on - year, and raw material prices have oscillated weakly this week. The cost center of steel is dynamically changing. Both social and steel mill inventories of steel are decreasing, and the overall inventory level is low. In the short term, macro - policy expectations dominate the market, and the fundamentals are also improving, showing a situation of strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the switching rhythm between macro - policy expectations and fundamental data [7] 3.7 Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (clean coal, Mongolia 5) is 1205 yuan/ton; the price of metallurgical coke (quasi - first - grade) at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the inventory of imported coking coal at ports is 337.38 million tons; and the inventory of coke at ports is 246.10 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, domestic production capacity is steadily recovering, and the capacity utilization rate of coking plants is stable. Although there are some disturbances in Mongolian coal imports, the overall volume remains high. In terms of demand, steel mills are reducing production, and there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal production, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of inventory, independent coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, and the overall inventory is slightly increasing. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke is stable and approaching the break - even point [8] 3.8 Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 100.1, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 763 yuan/ton, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 765 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. On the supply side, Australian shipments have decreased after the end of the quarterly rush, while Brazilian shipments have continued to increase, and the global total shipments have slightly decreased. The port inventory has decreased by 112.39 million tons to 1.48 billion tons, indicating a short - term reduction in arrival pressure. On the demand side, the domestic steel mill's hot metal production has increased to 240.22 million tons per day, and the resumption of blast furnaces has led to a 2.46 - million - ton increase in the daily consumption of imported ore. However, steel mills are still cautious in raw material procurement and mainly replenish inventory as needed. Overseas demand is divided, with increased production in Indian steel mills supporting some demand, but the substitution effect of Southeast Asian electric arc furnaces is strengthening, reducing the dependence on iron ore. In addition, the repeated adjustment of US tariff policies has intensified the volatility of global commodity prices, and market concerns about the trade war have limited the upward space for iron ore prices [9] 3.9 Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The resurgence of波折 in the US - Iran negotiations has reduced the expectation of increased supply, supporting oil prices. However, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by institutions has led to continued oscillation in crude oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the upside of oil prices is restricted. In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects an oversupply. In the long - term, the price center of crude oil will shift downward, but the WTI main contract has technical support at $55 per barrel and may oscillate around this level. OPEC has significantly lowered the global demand growth rate for the next two years. The escalation of the US trade war and the unpredictable policies of the Trump administration have raised concerns about global demand. The repeated delays in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the resurgence of波折 in the US - Iran negotiations have increased uncertainty [10] 3.10 Rubber - **Market Analysis**: Attention should be paid to overseas orders and domestic demand. The limited improvement in the fundamentals and the repeated situation after the positive news of the easing of the China - US trade war have restricted the rebound of rubber prices, which are mainly in a weak oscillation. Fundamentally, the tapping of domestic whole - latex has started, with 70% of the areas in Yunnan tapped and the supply of glue in Hainan increasing. In Southeast Asian producing areas, the tapping in northeastern Thailand has started, and the southern part will start tapping after May, resulting in an overall loose supply. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. Market speculation about the trade war and other macro - narratives, as well as the possible US automobile tariff, may seriously suppress global rubber demand, and rubber prices are generally weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic rubber imports and inventory changes [11][12] 3.11 PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC is 170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the operating rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 77.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC was 77.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18%, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 77.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.87%. In terms of demand, there has been no significant improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are mainly based on rigid demand. In terms of inventory, as of May 15, the PVC social inventory (47 samples) decreased by 3.07% week - on - week to 64.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 58.39 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.84%, and the inventory in South China was 5.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.86% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.09%. On May 21, the futures price rebounded. Previously, affected by macro - sentiment, the PVC futures price rebounded significantly, but there has been no obvious improvement in the fundamentals, and the upward space may be limited, with the futures price oscillating at a low level [13] 3.12 Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1421.25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The mainstream prices in East China, North China, and Central China are 1450 yuan/ton, 1500 yuan/ton, and 1400 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged from the previous period [15] - **Market Analysis**: In terms of supply, the overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.47%. The soda ash production was 67.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 million tons, a decline of 8.52%. The scheduled maintenance has led to a decrease in supply. In terms of inventory, the manufacturer's inventory last week was 171.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07 million tons, a decline of 0.63%, and the enterprise inventory has not fluctuated much. It is understood that the social inventory is on a downward trend, with a decline of more than 1 million tons and a total of more than 36 million tons. The demand is average, and downstream enterprises replenish inventory for low - priced goods on a rigid - demand basis but still resist high - priced goods. Overall, due to the combination of plant maintenance and the realization of new production capacity, the futures market is expected to continue to oscillate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to plant maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [15]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the US soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed, and a bumper South American new - crop is likely [2] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival and customs clearance of South American imported soybeans [2] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 3090 yuan/ton (-10), 3300 yuan/ton (120), and 3270 yuan/ton (50) respectively [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - US soybean trade; the market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak; the current spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease, and post - holiday downstream replenishment may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2184 yuan/ton and 2404 yuan/ton respectively; the purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - US tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil; currently, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the old - new grain gap period, with prices likely to rise, and it is advisable to go long in the short term [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78300 - 78860 yuan, up 390 yuan, with a premium of 240 - 280 yuan; the imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties; domestic policies support the market; raw material issues persist, and copper is in a stage of resonance with complex market conditions [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper prices is balanced, and it is advisable to participate selectively based on the moving average system in the short term [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate are 66200 (-650) yuan/ton and 64500 (-650) yuan/ton respectively, with a stable price difference of 1700 yuan/ton [7] - Market analysis: Cost pressure is increasing, supply is rising (especially from mica and potential increase from salt - lake lithium extraction), and demand is improving but not enough to drive prices up; inventory is increasing [7][8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, the contango structure is weakening, the valuation is moderately low; cost is dynamic, inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a supply - demand strong pattern [9] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, it is advisable to go long on the far - month contract at low levels after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly and rebound at low levels, with limited upside [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 773 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 761 yuan [11] - Market analysis: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the iron ore market; supply has a slight decline, port inventory is decreasing, and demand is mixed [11] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the iron ore 2505 contract will be oscillatory, and traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply; the Fed's stance and domestic policies in China have an impact, and the 55 - dollar/barrel level of WTI has technical support [12] - Reference view: WTI will mainly oscillate between 55 - 60 dollars/barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in; supply is increasing, and demand may be affected by the US auto tariff [12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [13] - Reference view: Due to weak demand, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1413.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable with little production fluctuation, inventory is decreasing, and demand is average with resistance to high - price goods [14] - Reference view: The futures market of soda ash will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [14]