1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its range - bound consolidation. The short - term performance of each variety varies, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations influencing their trends [4]. - For crude oil, short - term drivers are lacking, and the market is expected to remain volatile. The supply pressure in the real - world remains, but OPEC+ is becoming more cautious about increasing production, showing a willingness to support prices. The actual reduction in Russian oil supply in mid - to late November needs attention [9][10]. - For asphalt, the spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating. The premium - driving factors are weakening, and there is still significant inventory accumulation pressure [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News - US sanctions on Russia's Lukoil have affected its European business, and multiple European countries' winter energy supplies may be at risk. Bulgaria's available gasoline can only last about a month, and its diesel reserves can last over 50 days [10]. - The Trump administration's plan to sell new offshore oil exploration rights on the US West Coast is likely to fail [10]. - Venezuela did not seek military support from Russia despite the tense regional situation [10]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - On November 11, the short - term drivers were lacking, and the market continued to oscillate. The global inventory was rising, showing supply pressure in the real - world. However, the improvement in refined - oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads provided phased support to the demand side. OPEC+ was cautious about increasing production, and the price was expected to oscillate. The actual reduction in Russian oil supply in mid - to late November needed attention [9][10]. Asphalt - On November 11, the spot price fell, and the futures price oscillated. The OPEC+ group planned to increase production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, and the situation between the US and Venezuela was under control. The asphalt futures price broke below the important support level of 3200 yuan/ton, which was expected to turn into a resistance level. The asphalt - fuel oil spread oscillated around 400 yuan/ton. The production schedule in November decreased significantly, but the demand entered the off - season. The supply tension was relieved, and the high - premium driving factors were weakening [11]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On November 11, it showed a weak oscillation. The OPEC+ group planned to increase production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict ended, but the premium on Russian oil still existed. The fuel - oil supply in the Asia - Pacific region in November was expected to decrease due to the decline in Russian exports. The fuel - oil price still needed to pay attention to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The refinery processing demand was weak, and the fuel - oil demand was still sluggish [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - On November 11, it might show a moderately upward oscillation. It followed the crude - oil price and oscillated weakly. The domestic refined - oil supply pressure increased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was under the trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. However, its current valuation was low and it would follow the crude - oil price fluctuations [13]. PX - On November 11, the commodity market sentiment cooled down, and it was waiting for contradictions to accumulate under the stalemate in profitability. The financial market risk appetite recovered, but the international oil price lacked further positive support. The PX price followed the cost and adjusted downward. The supply remained at a high level, and the price was expected to remain within a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the gasoline profit changes would drive further trade flows [14]. PTA - On November 11, the supply - demand situation improved month - on - month, and the processing fee was repaired. The upstream cost cooled down, and the PTA price followed the decline. The supply - demand pattern improved slightly due to some device overhauls, and the spot processing fee was repaired month - on - month. However, the profit - repair space was relatively limited without unplanned overhauls [15][16]. Pure Benzene - On November 11, the port resumed inventory accumulation, and it was running weakly. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread was below 100, at a low level in recent years. The downstream benzene - ethylene overhauls were numerous in November, and the inventory - accumulation pressure was mainly on the pure - benzene side. The upward driving force was currently insufficient, but the valuation was at a low level [18][19]. Styrene - On November 11, the inventory - filling pressure still existed, and it was oscillating weakly. The driving force for going long was insufficient, but the short - selling space was getting smaller. The benzene - ethylene inventory began to decrease, but the pure - benzene inventory pressure reappeared. The pressure in November was mainly on the cost side of pure benzene [20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - On November 11, the long - shutdown device restarted as scheduled, and the supply pressure was gradually realized. The polyester - chain commodity sentiment cooled down, and the ethylene - glycol price adjusted downward. The supply pressure increased as the long - shutdown device restarted, and the inventory - accumulation pattern continued. The price was expected to remain in a low - level range in the short term [21][22]. Short - Fiber - On November 11, the market was characterized by buying on dips and avoiding buying on rallies, and attention should be paid to the off - season to peak - season transition. The polyester upstream price adjusted downward, and the short - fiber price followed the cost and decreased slightly. The market was in the off - season to peak - season transition period, and the downstream demand was expected to weaken. The short - fiber price was expected to move within a range [24][25]. Polyester Bottle Chip - On November 11, the market performance was dull, and it was passively following the cost. The upstream polyester raw material price adjusted downward, and the polyester bottle - chip price decreased slightly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and it followed the upstream price fluctuations. The processing fee was expected to be adjusted within a range [26]. Methanol - On November 11, the high - inventory reality suppressed the price, and overseas disturbances were not significant. The methanol price was oscillating and consolidating. The high inventory in coastal areas and sufficient imports suppressed the market, and the actual trading atmosphere was weak. The inland methanol also faced high - inventory pressure and relied on downstream olefin procurement and traders' willingness to hold goods [28]. Urea - On November 11, the export information boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions became cautious, and the futures price was expected to oscillate in the short term. The fourth - batch export quota information significantly boosted the spot market, but the high - inventory pressure still existed, and the short - term fundamentals were difficult to support high prices [28]. LLDPE - On November 11, the maintenance support was still limited, and it was oscillating weakly. The oil price was oscillating, and the supply - side support was limited. With the end of the peak season, the upstream and mid - stream still had the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which would suppress the price increase. The short - term futures price was expected to remain weak before the significant increase in maintenance [29]. PP - On November 11, the downstream transactions increased, but the maintenance support was limited, and it was oscillating downward. The futures price was oscillating downward. The downstream transactions increased as the price decreased. The supply - side support was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period in the past five years. The price was expected to remain weak in the short term [30]. PL - On November 11, the inventory needed time to be digested, and it was oscillating weakly. The Saudi Aramco's November CP prices for propane and butane decreased. The downstream restocking enthusiasm weakened, and the enterprise inventory was slightly high. The PL price was expected to remain weak in the short term [31]. PVC - On November 11, the weak reality suppressed the price, and it was oscillating weakly. The macro - level disturbances in November subsided, and the PVC fundamentals were under pressure. The production was expected to increase, the downstream demand was seasonally weakening, the export orders were weakening, and the cost was expected to remain stable [33]. Caustic Soda - On November 11, it was in a low - valuation and weak - expectation state and was oscillating. The macro - level disturbances in November subsided, and the caustic - soda supply - demand expectation was poor. Attention should be paid to whether the low - profit situation would drive upstream production cuts. The cost might increase due to the possible decline in liquid - chlorine price, and the futures price was expected to oscillate widely [34]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showed different changes, including increases and decreases [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., were presented, with corresponding changes in the basis and specific warehouse - receipt quantities [37]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., also showed different changes [39]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - For each variety, detailed basis and spread data were provided, but specific content was not elaborated in the text, only the variety names were mentioned [40][52][64]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On November 11, the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index showed different degrees of decline. The energy index also showed a decline on that day, with a decline of 0.56%, a decline of 0.99% in the past five days, an increase of 2.04% in the past month, and a decline of 5.98% since the beginning of the year [280][281].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly, while external market prices rose sharply. The profit of PDH decreased. With low arrivals, reduced external supply, and decreased port and factory inventories, supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand, and considering that there is no pressure on inventory and downstream purchasing willingness has increased, it is expected that the spot price will maintain a slight increase. Propane is still greatly affected by the China - US tariff policy, and cautious participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, the decline of civil gas continued. In the East China region, the price was 4274 (-8), in Shandong it was 4260 (-10), and in South China it was 4400 (-10). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4400 (-30). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of -87 (-18). The 11 - 12 spread was 89 (+2), and the 12 - 01 spread was 98 (-5). FEI and CP increased to 504 (+9) and 462 (+4) US dollars/ton respectively [4] Weekly View - The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The basis was -69 (-49), the 11 - 12 spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 spread was 113 (-1). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4279 (-66); in Shandong it was 4360 (+160), and in South China it was 4405 (-55). There were 2416 warehouse receipts, with 2300 from Wanhua, an increase of 64 from Yunda, and an increase of 52 from Haiyu Petrochemical. External market prices rose sharply; the FEI spread was -6.25 US dollars (+3.75), and the CP spread was -8 US dollars (-4). PG - CP was 114 (-17); PG - FEI was 79 (-33). FEI - CP was 35 (+15). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China CIF discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPJ decreased but the switching window was still open, at -82.5 (-11.5). The PDH profit decreased. With low arrivals and reduced external supply, both port and factory inventories decreased. Supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand, the PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but the second - phase of Zhongjing shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume production [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. - In the case of high shipping capacity in week 44, it is expected that the price increase announcements in the first half of November will not be well - implemented. However, there are still upward driving forces at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. - The current valuation of the December contract is high, and it may fluctuate with cargo bookings in the near future. Overall, it is recommended to conduct band trading mainly driven by spot prices. - In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the far - month contracts have more room for increase, but the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1135.0 with a 3.17% increase, EC2512 at 1769.3 with a 5.19% increase, EC2602 at 1568.0 with a 3.02% increase, EC2604 at 1163.8 with a 0.75% increase, and EC2606 at 1361.0 with a 2.31% increase. The open interest of EC2510 decreased by 2024, while that of EC2512 increased by 2333 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 634.3, with a month - on - month decrease of 52.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.3; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 201.3, with a month - on - month increase of 41.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 43.9 [1]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/10/20, the current value is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity and Market Conditions - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December is 26.9, 31.6, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 26.9, 30, and 330,000 TEU. The shipping capacity in week 44 and week 45 is 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Currently in the off - season, week 42 had good cargo collection, week 43 had good cargo collection for OA with a small number of cargo roll - overs, and PA and GEMINI had average cargo collection, maintaining a weak supply - demand balance. In week 44, with high shipping capacity, the pressure on cargo collection increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline prices were PA at 1500, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The offline quotes were PA at 1400, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]. Related News - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan. - On the same day, US President Trump stated on his social platform that if Hamas continued to violate the agreement with the US, multiple US allies would "enter Gaza with strong force" at the US request. Trump also asked countries and Israel to hold back and hoped that Hamas would "make the right decision" [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. On Thursday, the market declined due to shipping companies' push for price cuts at the end of October. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the price increase announcements in the first half of November are expected to have poor implementation. However, there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. Currently, the valuation of the December contract is high, and long - positions are back in a driver - dominated period. Geopolitics has a large impact on 2026 contracts [2][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contract Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1100.9 with a - 1.76% change, EC2512 at 1651.1 with a - 3.37% change, EC2602 at 1429.2 with a - 2.34% change, EC2604 at 1119.9 with a - 1.94% change, and EC2606 at 1281.2 with a - 1.94% change [2][27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 2461, 27124, 5516, 3388, and 302 respectively. The open interests were 10060, 25798, 20, 13858, and 1547 respectively, with changes of - 1275, - 1225, - 463, 233, and 37 [2][27]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 550.2, with a month - on - month increase of 37.8 and a week - on - week decrease of - 100.3. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 221.9, with a month - on - month decrease of - 23.3 and a week - on - week decrease of - 11.1 [2][27]. 3.2 Shipping Index Data - **SCFI**: As of 2025/10/13, it was 1031.80 points, a - 1.40% change from the previous period. In terms of dollars/TEU, it was 1068, a 9.99% change from the previous period [2][27]. - **CCFI**: As of 2025/10/10, it was 1287.15 points, a - 8.19% change from the previous period [2][27]. - **NCFI**: As of 2025/10/10, it was 698.67 points, an 11.39% change from the previous period [2][27]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotations - Week40 - 41: The average quotation was about 1470 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market) [3][28]. - Week42: The online quotation was 1800 US dollars. Offline, OA quoted 1800, PA 1400, and GEMINI about 1600 US dollars, with an estimated average of 1560 US dollars (equivalent to 1100 points on the futures market) [3][28]. - November price - increase announcements: MSK, CMA, OOCL announced price increases to around 2500 US dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. However, due to the average cargo collection of many shipping companies in week 43 and high shipping capacity in week 44 (330,000 TEU), the expected price increases are difficult to implement [3][28]. 3.4 Related News - On October 17, US President Trump stated that if Hamas continues to kill people in Gaza, the US will have no choice but to enter and eliminate them. Israeli officials denied the start of the second - stage negotiation of the Gaza cease - fire [4][29].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and is highly volatile under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies [2][17]. - On Wednesday, the futures market fluctuated upwards under the influence of local news, shipping company price hikes, and capital position transfers. YML released a Week 44 spot price quote of $1550 [2][17]. - The downstream is currently booking space for late October. OA quotes $1800, PA quotes $1500, and GEMINI quotes around $1600, with an optimistic average of $1640 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). Week 43 OA had good cargo intake, while PA and GEMINI alliances had average intake, with a possibility of further price drops (more offline) [2][17]. - The settlement price of the 10 - contract is expected to be between 1050 - 1100 points. Given the tight shipping capacity in Week 44, the price hikes announced for the first half of November are expected to be difficult to implement. However, there are still upward drivers at multiple future price - hike nodes. Currently, the valuation of the 12 - contract is high, and the long - position trading has returned to a driver - based period. Geopolitics has a significant impact on 2026 contracts [2][17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1120.6, down 1.37%, with a basis of - 88.8, a trading volume of 3412, an open interest of 11335, and an open - interest change of - 1820 [2][17]. - EC2512: The price was 1708.6, up 2.06%, with a basis of - 676.8, a trading volume of 42616, an open interest of 27023, and an open - interest change of - 168 [2][17]. - EC2602: The price was 1463.4, down 0.07%, with a basis of - 431.6, a trading volume of 8209, an open interest of 9822, and an open - interest change of 112 [2][17]. - EC2604: The price was 1142.0, with a basis of - 110.2, and a trading volume of 4498, an open interest of 13676 [2][17]. - EC2606: The price was 1306.6, down 0.93%, with a basis of - 274.8, a trading volume of 385, an open interest of 1510, and an open - interest change of - 31 [2][17]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 588.0, compared to - 537.9 the previous day and - 433.1 the day before that, with a daily change of - 50.1 and a weekly change of - 19.9 [2][17]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 245.2, compared to 209.7 the previous day and 202.6 the day before that, with a daily change of 35.5 and a weekly change of - 36.8 [2][17]. Index Data - SCEIS: Updated every Monday, announced on 2025/10/13, at 1031.80 points, down 1.40% from the previous period and 6.60% from the period before that [2][17]. - SCEI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at $1068 per TEU, up 9.99% from the previous period and unchanged from the period before that [2][17]. - CCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at 1287.15 points, down 8.19% from the previous period and unchanged from the period before that [2][17]. - NCFI: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/10, at 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period and 2.13% from the period before that [2][17]. News and Events - Shipping companies MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price hikes to around $2500 in November, equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures market. However, due to the average cargo intake of many shipping companies in Week 43 and tight shipping capacity in Week 44 (330,000 TEU), these price hikes are expected to be difficult to implement [2][17]. - On October 15, negotiations on the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza were launched. The key points of the US government's "20 - point plan" include the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip, the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of an international stabilization force, and the formation of a Palestinian independent technical bureaucracy committee. Hamas insists on Israel ending the occupation and Palestinian state - building as a prerequisite for complete disarmament, and the Israeli government currently only agrees to the first - stage agreement, suggesting that subsequent negotiations will not be smooth [2][17]. - On October 15, the Israeli government expected Hamas to return all hostages, decided to open the Rafah crossing, and the Israeli Defense Minister ordered the military to formulate a comprehensive plan to "crush Hamas" if the Gaza conflict resumes [2][17]. - Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume action at his order without US military intervention [3][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. The measure of China's counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. is expected to have little impact on the European line. With average cargo collection in Week43 and high shipping capacity in Week44, the price increase declaration in early November is expected to have poor implementation, but there are still upward drivers in subsequent price increase declaration nodes. The valuation of the December contract is neutral, and the long - position trading has returned to a period driven by fundamentals. Geopolitical factors have a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Futures Prices and Changes**: For EC2510, the closing price was 1136.2, with a 0.60% increase; EC2512 closed at 1674.1, up 7.14%; EC2602 at 1464.4, up 7.68%; EC2604 at 1150.0, up 4.69%; EC2606 at 1318.8, up 4.01% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 537.9, with a month - on - month change of - 104.8 and a week - on - week change of 83.4; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 209.7, with a month - on - month change of 7.1 and a week - on - week change of 120.6 [2]. Spot Freight Index - **SCHIS**: Updated every Monday, as of October 13, 2025, it was 1031.80 points, down 1.40% from the previous period [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1068 US dollars/TEU, up 9.99% from the previous period [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1287.15 points, down 8.19% from the previous period [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, as of October 10, 2025, it was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period [2]. European Line Quotation - **Week40 - 41**: The average quotation was 1470 US dollars (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures market) [3]. - **Week42**: The online quotation was 1800 US dollars, and the overall average was 1600 US dollars (1120 points) [3]. - **November Price Increase Declaration**: MSK, CMA, OOCL declared a price increase to around 2500 US dollars, equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures market, but it is difficult to implement due to average cargo collection in Week43 and high shipping capacity in Week44 (330,000 TEU) [3]. News - On October 14, Israeli drones attacked an eastern community in Gaza City, resulting in 3 Palestinian deaths [4]. - On October 15, the negotiation of the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza was launched. The key points of the negotiation include the complete withdrawal of the Israeli army from the Gaza Strip and the disarmament of Hamas, but there are still differences between the two sides [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current EC is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. In the short term, due to the expectation of spot price cuts, geopolitical relaxation, and the impact of the Sino - US trade war, the market sentiment may be weak. Considering the remaining expectations of the subsequent peak season and long - term contract signing season, opportunities to go long on contracts 12, 02 - 04 on dips can be focused on [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For EC2510, the closing price was 1129.4 with a 0.74% increase, a basis of - 97.6, trading volume of 4774, and an open interest of 16148 with a decrease of 2204. For EC2512, the closing price was 1562.5 with a 0.54% decrease, a basis of - 530.7, trading volume of 24678, and an open interest of 28771 with an increase of 715. For EC2602, the closing price was 1359.9 with a 1.64% increase, a basis of - 328.1, trading volume of 5747, and an open interest of 9376 with a decrease of 392. For EC2604, the closing price was 1098.5 with a 2.76% increase, a basis of - 66.7, trading volume of 4408, and an open interest of 12825 with a decrease of 133. For EC2606, the closing price was 1268.0 with a 1.55% increase, a basis of - 236.2, and an open interest of 1483 with a decrease of 33 [2][16] - The EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 433.1, with a daily increase of 16.8 and a weekly increase of 188.2. The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 202.6, with a daily decrease of 30.4 and a weekly increase of 113.5 [2][16] Spot Market - The现货 price of ડેલનીટ on October 13, 2025, was 1031.8, with a 1.40% decrease from the previous period and a 6.60% decrease in the last period. The SCFI was 1068 dollars/TEU on October 10, 2025, with a 9.99% increase from the previous period. The CCFI was 1287.15 points on October 10, 2025, with an 8.19% decrease from the previous period. The NCFI was 698.67 points on October 10, 2025, with an 11.39% increase from the previous period [2][16] Recent European Line Quotations - From Week 40 - 41, the two - week joint cabin release had an average quote of 1450 dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the disk), with YML at 1300 dollars (the lowest price of the year) and OA at 1400 - 1600 dollars. In Week 42, the price was announced to rise to 1800 - 2000 dollars, and the booking window had not arrived, so the quotes were not readjusted. It was reported that ONE quoted 1200 dollars in the first half - month, and CMA's freight forwarders still quoted 1500 - 1600 dollars. In November, MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price increases to around 2500 dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the disk [3][17] Related News - On October 13, Hamas released all Israeli hostages. On October 14, the Gaza cease - fire agreement was signed in Egypt. The "Peace Summit" in Sharm El - Sheikh was hosted by the Egyptian President and the US President, but the Israeli Prime Minister cancelled his participation, and Hamas did not send a representative [4][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is rated as 1, indicating a "neutral" view on the market trend, with the range of trend strength being an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [14]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed a low - opening rebound yesterday. Looking forward, the market trading has three main lines: the European line's own fundamentals, resumption of shipping expectations, and macro - sentiment disturbances caused by changes in Sino - US tariff policies [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2510 closed at 1,129.4 with a daily increase of 0.35%, EC2512 at 1,562.5 with a daily decrease of 2.65%, and EC2602 at 1,359.9 with a daily decrease of 0.40%. The difference between EC2512 and EC2604 is 464.0, and the difference between EC2602 and EC2604 is 261.4 [1]. - **Freight Index Data**: On October 13, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 1,031.80 points, down 1.4% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 862.48 points, down 1.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,068/TEU, up 10.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1,468/FEU, up 0.5% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Data**: For European line spot freight from Shanghai to Rotterdam, prices range from $1,806 - $2,292 for 40'GP and $1,085 - $1,605 for 20'GP among different carriers [1]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 98.84, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.12 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - **October**: The weekly average capacity was revised down from 26.5 to 25.7 TEU/week before the holiday, mainly due to many delayed sailings on the FE4 route. The spot market will mainly handle cargo for weeks 43 and 44 next week, corresponding to capacity supplies of 290,000 and 335,000 TEU respectively, with sufficient cabin space [11]. - **November**: The weekly average capacity was 307,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), a 19% month - on - month increase and an 8.9% year - on - year increase. Key points include new sailings cancellations on COSCO's AEU7, pending voyages on CMA's FAL1 and Evergreen's CES in week 48, 2 actual empty sailings on the PA alliance's Northwest European route, and MSC's full - sail operation in November [11]. - **December**: There are 6 pending and 3 empty sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 295,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), and there is room for significant revision due to many pending voyages [11]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **EC2510 Contract**: Expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [12]. - **EC2512 Contract**: The peak - season attribute cannot be ignored. There are both positive and negative views. Positive factors include investors' TACO trading expectations and the resilience of the European line's fundamentals. Negative factors include uncertainties in the trade war and the possibility of the market significantly discounting if the price increase in early November fails to materialize [13]. - **EC2602 Contract**: The key points are the impact of the later Spring Festival in 2026, the uncertainty of resumption of shipping in February, and the valuation mainly depending on the freight level in January [13]. - **EC2604 Contract**: With the increasing pressure of over - capacity, its upper - limit valuation can be anchored to EC2510, and the lower - limit space may expand further with the shipping companies' resumption of shipping schedule [14]. 3.4 Macro News - The US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey signed a Gaza cease - fire agreement in Sharm El - Sheikh, Egypt on October 13, 2025. The "Peace Summit" was hosted by Egyptian President Sisi and US President Trump [9]. - The US Middle East Envoy, Wietkof, will stay in Egypt for a long time at the instruction of President Trump [9].

Core Viewpoint - The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 4048.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.33% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures predicts that LPG2511 is likely to stabilize [2] - According to Saudi Arabia's October CP, propane is priced at $495 per ton, down $25 from the previous month, while butane is at $475 per ton, down $15 [2] - The market sentiment is generally pessimistic, but considering freight and discount rates, the import costs for propane and butane in East China are 4300 yuan/ton and 4230 yuan/ton respectively, which may improve the demand for PDH facilities [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The expiration of the China-US tariff policy at the end of October is anticipated to influence negotiations, likely maintaining the current tariff structure [2] - A potential new fee on Chinese-operated vessels announced by the USTR, set to take effect on October 14, 2025, could impact about 12% of VLGC vessels, leading to increased shipping costs from the US to the Far East, thereby suppressing import demand in China [2] - Post-holiday, there is an expectation of weak market fluctuations until refinery inventory is cleared, after which LPG2511 is expected to stabilize [2] Group 3: Short-term Predictions - Ruida Futures expects short-term LPG prices to trend upwards due to geopolitical conflicts and doubts about OPEC+'s actual production capacity, which may provide support for oil prices [3] - The significant drop in Saudi Arabia's October CP price aims to enhance competitiveness in long-term contracts amid a shift of buyers like India towards US sources [3] - Despite weak downstream chemical demand and high raw material costs, stable procurement from China, Japan, and South Korea, along with declining costs, is expected to support market operations [3]

Policy Insights - The "trade-in for new" policy for home appliances in China will be strengthened and expanded by 2025, with a total of 162 billion yuan allocated in the first half of the year to support its implementation, stimulating consumer activity, although demand elasticity varies by category and there is regional imbalance in subsidy consumption [1] - The US-China tariff policy shows a trend of "tightening first, then loosening," causing short-term disruptions to China's home appliance exports but also encouraging companies to accelerate global capacity layout and enhance supply chain adjustment capabilities [1] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, leading brands in the black appliance sector in China have further highlighted their brand and technological advantages, increasing market share, while the trend of industrial structure upgrading continues, with good domestic market performance but pressure on exports [1] - The national subsidy policy has significantly boosted the domestic demand market for white appliances, combined with ecological advantages and extreme weather stimuli, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and quality, although increased competition from export-to-domestic sales is squeezing the survival space of smaller brands [1] - The kitchen and bathroom sector continues to be constrained by ongoing adjustments in the real estate industry, but new policy subsidies focused on this sector have driven both volume and revenue growth for large kitchen and bathroom appliances, while small appliances see a decrease in volume but an increase in revenue [1] - The cleaning appliance industry maintains high growth rates, with leading domestic brands deepening overseas layouts expected to drive export business into a phase of scaling up [1] Financial Overview - In the first half of 2025, the overall credit risk in the home appliance industry is manageable, with rapid growth in total revenue and operational performance, and stable gross profit levels, although profitability varies across sub-sectors, with kitchen and bathroom appliances under continuous pressure, and cleaning appliances seeing revenue growth without profit increase, while black and white appliances show year-on-year profit improvement [2] - The overall operational efficiency of the home appliance industry has slightly declined, capital expenditure has contracted year-on-year, and there is significant room for optimization in debt maturity structure, although financial leverage remains stable [2]