Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Commodity Outlook 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global commodity market outlook for 2026, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks, changes in global trade order, and the influence of emerging economies and AI development on commodity demand [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Geopolitical Risks and Supply Uncertainty** Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China trade frictions, are increasing supply risks in the commodity market, particularly during the transition between old and new orders [2][5]. 2. **Demand Restructuring** The demand for commodities is being reshaped by the industrialization of emerging economies and advancements in AI. Investments in AI and energy transition are driving demand for metals like copper and natural gas [1][2][7]. 3. **Strategic Stockpiling** Non-OECD countries are enhancing their strategic stockpiling to absorb excess oil supply, which is expected to have a profound impact on the commodity market [1][8]. 4. **Global Monetary System Changes** Changes in the global monetary system, including increased central bank gold purchases, are affecting commodity markets. This trend may lead to liquidity tightening and a shift in commodity flows towards the US [1][10]. 5. **Oil Market Dynamics** The oil market is expected to face challenges such as limited OPEC production increases, risks of US shale oil production declines, and low inventory levels due to emerging market stockpiling [2][11][12]. 6. **Copper Price Outlook** Copper prices are projected to rise in the coming years due to demand growth outpacing supply growth, driven by energy transition and electrification investments [2][13]. 7. **Black Metal Market Sentiment** A bearish outlook is held for black metals like iron ore, with expectations of declining prices due to increased supply pressure from new mines and a general demand downturn [2][15]. 8. **Agricultural Market Trends** Agricultural commodities are expected to stabilize at cyclical lows, with specific impacts from US-China trade tensions affecting soybean prices and short-term pressures on pork prices [2][16]. 9. **Gold Investment Opportunities** Gold is viewed positively as an investment due to central bank purchases and ETF inflows, with expectations of continued demand in a de-globalizing environment [2][17]. Other Important Insights - The transition to a new global order is complicating supply chains and increasing uncertainty, which may lead to higher production costs and volatility in futures markets [5][6]. - The interplay between supply-side adjustments and demand recovery narratives will shape the commodity market dynamics in 2026 [4][10]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends and challenges in the global commodity market leading into 2026.