全球资产定价逻辑改变

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中外资机构:中国经济持续复苏,牛市格局并未改变
天天基金网· 2025-05-12 04:25
Core Viewpoint - The global asset pricing logic is changing due to the "reciprocal tariffs" introduced by the Trump administration, leading to increased geopolitical uncertainty and a potential rebalancing of the global economy towards non-US markets [1][14]. Economic Recovery in China - China's economy is showing signs of recovery, supported by a robust industrial system, large domestic market, and ongoing reforms, which provide a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [3][4]. - Domestic demand is steadily recovering, although sectors related to external demand are negatively impacted by tariffs, with expectations of increased policy support in the second quarter [3][4]. RMB Exchange Rate Outlook - China's trade surplus is expected to remain high, with more long-term overseas capital likely flowing into Chinese equity and bond markets, leading to a stable RMB in the medium to long term [4]. - The RMB is projected to appreciate slightly due to improving economic fundamentals and synchronized monetary policy easing between China and the US [4]. Impact of Global Supply Chain Restructuring - China's stock market is returning to a normal valuation repair process, with recent volatility subsiding, providing a good buying opportunity [5]. - The mid-term bullish trend in the Chinese stock market remains intact, with recommendations to focus on sectors aligned with China's new development model [5]. US Economic Challenges - The US economy is facing a negative cycle driven by policy uncertainty, with the Federal Reserve under pressure to manage inflation expectations while addressing growth risks [8][9]. - A potential series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is anticipated, with estimates suggesting a total reduction of 75 to 100 basis points throughout the year [8][9]. De-dollarization Trend - The dominance of the dollar is being reassessed in light of rising policy uncertainty and fiscal challenges, although it is unlikely to be completely replaced in the short term [10][14]. - Investors are increasingly reducing their exposure to dollar assets, reflecting a broader trend of diversifying global asset allocation [10][14]. Investment Strategy Shifts - The trend of "sell America, buy Asia" is expected to continue, driven by the need for Asian investors to adjust their dollar asset allocations amid rising uncertainties [15][16]. - Investors are advised to adopt defensive strategies, increasing allocations to European investment-grade bonds and stocks, while also considering higher allocations to gold [16].