炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 一瑜中的 ①【大势研判·张瑜】关税、美元与中国复苏验证 各位投资朋友新年好。新年第一期旬度，我主要聚焦四大议题：第一是大国关系，第二是全球关税，第 三是美元指数的强弱逻辑，第四是中国经济复苏的验证三部曲，以及我们对当前结构性景气的看法。 一、大国关系：上半年有望维持低水平稳定 当前，4月美方访华仍是中美日程中确定性较高的事项，相关安排正按正常节奏推进，双方表态均较为 积极，这意味着短期中美关系的下限有明确保障。从历史经验来看，大国元首会晤前后，双边关系可大 致维持3-6个月的低水平稳定状态，所以我们也认为，今年上半年中美关系大概率将维持低水平稳定的 格局。 二、全球关税：关税差收窄利好中国出口相对优势 近期美国对等关税被美国最高法院宣布违宪，相关政策大概率将取消；与此同时特朗普提出拟对全球普 遍加征15%关税，但美国国会、白宫发布的官方通告中仍标注为10%，后续具体方案仍待进一步确认。 整体来看，若按普提10%关税的情景测算，美国对华关税相对其对全球其他经济体的关税差值将有所收 窄，中国将明确受益。从2025年全年实际关税税率来看，美国 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, U.S.-China relations, and the impact of tariff policies on various industries, particularly focusing on China's export sectors such as semiconductors and machinery. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S.-China Relations Stability**: The market anticipates that U.S.-China relations will remain stable in the first half of 2026, supported by planned high-level meetings and positive attitudes from both sides [3] - **Tariff Policy Changes**: The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs has led to a reduction in China's effective tariff rate from 29.8% to 22%, narrowing the gap with global rates by 6.5%. This is expected to benefit China's export sectors, especially semiconductors and machinery [4][22] - **Economic Recovery Indicators**: China's economic recovery is being validated through a three-step process, including positive CPI and PPI data, with expectations for PPI to turn positive by the end of Q2 2026 [7][8] - **Strong Consumer Demand**: During the Spring Festival, retail and catering sales increased by 8.6% year-on-year, indicating robust consumer demand. Port throughput also grew by 13.2%, reflecting active economic activity [8][9][10] - **Financial Data Insights**: January financial data showed strong corporate deposit growth, indicating potential for production investment and improved economic circulation. However, consumer loan growth remains weak [13][14] - **PPI Trends**: January 2026 PPI rose by 0.4%, marking the highest monthly increase since mid-2021. The forecast for PPI indicates a potential positive shift by mid-2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the manufacturing sector [16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **AI and Economic Growth**: The development of AI is seen as a crucial factor in addressing U.S. debt issues and enhancing the long-term credibility of the dollar. AI-driven growth could lead to a scenario where inflation remains low, allowing for potential interest rate cuts [6] - **Old vs. New Economy Performance**: While traditional sectors like real estate and durable goods are underperforming, new economy sectors, particularly exports and midstream manufacturing, are thriving, contributing to overall economic growth [12] - **Global Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy landscape is characterized by continued easing, with expectations that the aggressive phase of monetary expansion will taper off by 2026 [18][19] - **Liquidity in Financial Markets**: Despite volatility, global liquidity remains healthy, with improvements in dollar liquidity and stable credit spreads, indicating a resilient financial environment [21] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic context, industry-specific insights, and broader financial trends.

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB against the USD has surged, breaking the key level of 6.89 and reaching a nearly three-year high, marking a strong start to the year with over 1% appreciation since the beginning of 2026, reflecting robust economic fundamentals and market dynamics [1][7]. External Factors - The primary external driver for the RMB's appreciation is the weakening of the USD, influenced by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a decline in the USD index and created upward pressure on non-USD currencies like the RMB [3]. - The US economic data has underperformed, prompting market expectations for a shift to a rate-cutting cycle, thereby diminishing the USD's strength and allowing for greater appreciation potential for the RMB [3]. Internal Support - China's strong economic resilience and impressive foreign trade performance have provided solid support for the RMB's appreciation, with the country's goods trade surplus surpassing $1 trillion in 2025, driven by exports in sectors like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries [3]. - The peak period for foreign trade enterprises to settle accounts before the Spring Festival has led to increased demand for RMB, as companies convert USD for year-end bonuses and wages, further boosting the RMB's value [3]. Foreign Investment - Continuous inflow of foreign capital into China has also contributed to the RMB's rise, as the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets increases with the steady recovery of the Chinese economy [4]. - Improved Sino-US trade relations and a favorable external environment have bolstered market confidence in the Chinese economy, encouraging international investors to hold RMB assets [4]. Central Bank Policy - The People's Bank of China's prudent regulation has been crucial in maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate, allowing for a reasonable appreciation without excessive intervention, thus ensuring a healthy market-driven rise [6]. - The current appreciation of the RMB is seen as a rational increase supported by economic fundamentals and market supply-demand dynamics [6]. Impact on Consumers and Businesses - The appreciation of the RMB benefits consumers by making overseas purchases cheaper, thus enhancing the purchasing power for travel, education, and imported goods [6]. - While export-oriented businesses may face challenges due to a stronger RMB, the government is expected to implement policies to support these firms in maintaining their market positions [7]. - Overall, the RMB's rise is viewed as a positive signal for both the economy and consumer confidence, indicating a robust outlook for the future [9].

一开年，A股上市公司密集披露订单，不少企业在公告中显示"新签订重大合同"以及"订单饱和、充 足"。 作为企业最真实、最直观的经营状况，以及反映所在行业景气度的"晴雨表"，上市公司手握和新增订单 情况一直备受关注。 根据万得数据，开年以来，已经有百余家上市公司陆续披露重大中标或合同签订信息，订单覆盖领域十 分广泛，从国内大基建项目到国际市场合作，规模可观、结构多元，不仅为企业全年经营创造了良好开 端，也传递出中国经济稳步复苏、内生动力持续增强的积极信号。 中国资本市场学会理事 田利辉：十亿元级"大标"主要集中在基建领域，开年以来，多家上市公司接连 收获重大工程订单，合计金额超过430亿元。 值得注意的是，当前基建投资正与新能源、智慧城市等国家战略深度融合。比如有地方建工上市企业公 告：中标了可持续航空燃料加氢装置项目，以及半导体产业园建设项目。还有公司表示：联合中标乡村 振兴5G智慧路灯示范区项目，体现了传统基建向智能化、绿色化升级的趋势。在生态环保领域，近期 也有多个亿元级项目被披露，涵盖环卫服务、水利调蓄、垃圾处理等方向，显示出绿色基建正成为新的 增长点。 田利辉：这些重大项目的落地，不仅为企业带来了直接业 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals collectively strengthened on February 9, with the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) rising by 2.09%, and stocks like Shenghe Resources increasing by 9.49% [1] - Silver and rare earth stocks also saw significant gains, with silver rising by 5.94%, and companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth following suit [1] - The price consumption is relatively flat as the Spring Festival approaches, and the increase in non-ferrous metals is limited compared to precious metals, indicating a potential return to fundamentals after the price surge [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities, copper is testing the key support level of 100,000 yuan/ton, with expectations for downstream inventory replenishment likely to occur after the Spring Festival [1] - Global copper inventory has risen to 1.11 million tons, with 589,000 tons locked in the COMEX market, while aluminum prices are supported at 23,500 yuan/ton despite current inventory accumulation [1] - The prices of non-ferrous metals are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories remaining relatively low, suggesting improved demand driven by economic recovery and the new energy sector [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 51.85% of the index [2] - The weightings of the top stocks are as follows: Zijin Mining at 15.30%, Luoyang Molybdenum at 7.92%, and Northern Rare Earth at 5.30% [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) has several off-market connections, including the Huaxia Non-Ferrous Metal ETF Connect A (016707) and C (016708) [3]

根据万得数据，开年以来，已经有百余家上市公司陆续披露重大中标或合同签订信息，订单覆盖领域十 分广泛，从国内大基建项目到国际市场合作，规模可观、结构多元，不仅为企业全年经营创造了良好开 端，也传递出中国经济稳步复苏、内生动力持续增强的积极信号。 中国资本市场学会理事 田利辉：十亿元级"大标"主要集中在基建领域，开年以来，多家上市公司接连 收获重大工程订单，合计金额超过430亿元。 值得注意的是，当前基建投资正与新能源、智慧城市等国家战略深度融合。比如有地方建工上市企业公 告：中标了可持续航空燃料加氢装置项目，以及半导体产业园建设项目。还有公司表示：联合中标乡村 振兴5G智慧路灯示范区项目，体现了传统基建向智能化、绿色化升级的趋势。在生态环保领域，近期 也有多个亿元级项目被披露，涵盖环卫服务、水利调蓄、垃圾处理等方向，显示出绿色基建正成为新的 增长点。 一开年，A股上市公司密集披露订单，不少企业在公告中显示"新签订重大合同"以及"订单饱和、充 足"。 作为企业最真实、最直观的经营状况，以及反映所在行业景气度的"晴雨表"，上市公司手握和新增订单 情况一直备受关注。 订单"能见度"提升 展现中国经济持续向好 记者注意 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached a historic high, with spot gold surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver hitting $107, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [1][3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold purchases, with a net buying of 45 tons reported in November, maintaining a high level compared to previous months [3] - The Chinese central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 7.415 million ounces, which boosts market confidence [3] Group 2 - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to weakened dollar credit and heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to increased safe-haven demand [3] - Industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc are also experiencing price increases, driven by low global inventories and anticipated recovery in the Chinese economy [3][4] - The performance of the non-ferrous mining ETF has been strong, with a one-year increase of 128.68%, indicating high price elasticity and responsiveness to rising metal prices [5]

Economic Outlook - China's economy is expected to enter a recovery phase in 2026, following a period of downturn characterized by declining real estate investment and profit margins in A-share companies [4] - The average net profit of A-share companies increased by 9.55% in the first three quarters of 2025, signaling the beginning of self-repair in the economy [4] - The Chinese yuan is likely to continue appreciating against major currencies, driven by the disparity in nominal interest rates and the yuan's actual purchasing power [4] - China's trade surplus is expected to narrow, but the global trade landscape has stabilized, allowing Chinese enterprises to continue developing their international business [5] Consumer Market - The concept of "value" is becoming more significant than "price" in consumer decision-making, with a shift towards experience-driven consumption [8] - There is a polarization in consumer behavior, with one segment being highly price-sensitive and another willing to pay a premium for value and experience [8] - The potential of offline consumption is being redefined, focusing on unique experiences that create memorable moments rather than just sales [9] AI Development - In 2026, AI development will shift towards practical applications and human collaboration, with a focus on integrating AI into traditional industries [11] - The success of AI will depend on its ability to work alongside humans, emphasizing the need for deep integration of human and machine capabilities [12] - Companies must transition from viewing AI as a tool to treating it as a collaborative partner to enhance productivity and decision-making [12] Organizational Management - Effective collaboration in 2026 will require managers to understand both human and AI dynamics, focusing on acceptance, alignment, and empowerment within teams [15] - A collaborative environment will foster mutual success, where all team members contribute to the overall goals [15] Financial Market Complexity - The financial market in 2026 will be characterized by increased complexity due to the interplay of various macroeconomic factors, making it difficult to establish a unified market trend [18] - The pricing of growth is changing, with a new consensus emerging that technological advancements must translate into stable cash flows to achieve sustained premium valuations [18] - Opportunities will arise for assets with stable cash flows and strong pricing power, as well as companies that can convert technological breakthroughs into real profits [19]

Group 1 - The core investment themes identified by Goldman Sachs for 2026 include a shift in AI infrastructure investment towards data centers and power suppliers [1] - Pharmaceutical research is transitioning from weight loss drugs to cardiovascular treatments, indicating a change in focus within the healthcare sector [1] - China's economic growth is expected to exceed market expectations, driven primarily by technological advancements and exports [1] Group 2 - Political uncertainties, such as Federal Reserve policies and tariff decisions, are anticipated to dominate the market in the first half of the year [1]

Group 1: AI Infrastructure and Investment Trends - AI infrastructure investment is entering a new phase, with traditional leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon seeing stagnant stock prices since last summer, while new entrants like Broadcom are emerging [1][4] - Investors are shifting focus to companies that can support global computing power regardless of chip usage, indicating a significant transformation in AI investment themes [4] - Memory producers like Micron Technology and connector companies such as Amphenol and TE Connectivity are experiencing stock price surges, while utility stocks are stagnating [5] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Sector Developments - The GLP-1 weight loss drug market is undergoing a notable transformation, with Eli Lilly outperforming the market while Novo Nordisk's stock has halved, leading to a 33% downward revision in earnings expectations for 2026 [7][8] - Investment focus is shifting towards new weight loss products awaiting approval, and there is a transition in biopharmaceuticals from obesity drugs to a "Cardiology Renaissance," indicating a potential large product cycle [8] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Global Trade - Goldman Sachs economists predict that China's economic growth will exceed market consensus, driven by technological advancements and a leading export position, even amidst tariff challenges [11] - The recovery of the Chinese economy is expected to significantly impact global trade and technology dynamics in the coming year [11] Group 4: Productivity and Labor Market Dynamics - The potential for a "jobless expansion" is highlighted, as technology-driven productivity gains may support economic growth while facing labor shortages due to immigration restrictions [13] - Long-term productivity improvements are deemed essential to offset the effects of an aging workforce and declining birth rates [13] Group 5: Alternative Investments and Market Trends - The private credit market is expected to outperform private equity in 2025, attracting retail investor interest [15] - The cryptocurrency market is expanding, with companies like Coinbase and Robinhood positioned favorably in the growing sectors of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins [16] Group 6: Defense and Military Investment - The defense sector is experiencing evolving militarization, with the U.S. Space Force favoring innovators in drone and satellite technology [18] - Europe may require up to $160 billion in investments over the next five years to enhance military capabilities in response to Russian threats [19] Group 7: Robotics and Autonomous Vehicles - Advancements in technology are enhancing the capabilities of humanoid robots and autonomous vehicles, which are expected to drive profit growth for industrial tech companies like Tesla [21] - China is actively building capacity in the humanoid robot supply chain and is leading in the autonomous vehicle sector, with projections indicating a $47 billion market for Robotaxi by 2035 [22][23] Group 8: Nuclear Energy and Rare Earth Elements - Nuclear energy is experiencing a revival due to increasing demand for clean power to support the AI revolution, despite past accidents that stalled its development [25] - Rare earth metals are becoming critical components in technology, with China currently dominating this supply chain [25] Group 9: Policy and Market Sentiment - Policy uncertainties, including the Federal Reserve's actions and the Supreme Court's decisions on tariffs, are expected to dominate market sentiment in the first half of 2026 [26] - Current U.S. stock valuations are at their highest levels since the late 1990s, prompting a cautious approach from investors [2][27]