1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight crude oil prices remained low. Trump's statement on sanctions against Russia will be decided after the envoy's meeting with Russian officials. The threat to India has not completely deterred India's purchases, and the oil price has shed its previous premium due to eased sentiment. Although the API inventory has significantly decreased, it has not significantly boosted the oil price. The market is waiting for more decisions on sanctions against Russia and the upcoming implementation of comprehensive reciprocal tariffs. The oil price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term, with a short - term range of 500 - 508, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - Trump will "significantly" increase the tariffs on goods imported from India from the current 25% within the next 24 hours and will decide whether to sanction countries that purchase Russian oil after the US - Russia official meeting on Wednesday. Fed's Daly said that the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and two interest rate cuts this year are still an appropriate adjustment, but it's also possible that there won't be two cuts, and more cuts are more likely. The base difference shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. The US API crude oil inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, while the EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25th. As of August 5th, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.249 million barrels. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. As of July 29th, the long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3] 3.2 Recent News - The Kremlin is considering making concessions to Trump, possibly including an air cease - fire agreement with Ukraine to avoid "secondary sanctions." Trump threatened to impose heavy taxes on countries like India that purchase Russian oil and other commodities from Friday. The US trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% to $60.2 billion in June, and the trade deficit with China shrank to the lowest in 21 years. In July, the US service - sector business activity was basically flat, orders hardly changed, employment weakened further, and input costs rose at the largest rate in nearly three years [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6] - **Likely to be Bearish**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the US has a tense trade relationship with other economies [6] - **Market Drivers**: Geopolitical conflicts are likely to drive up prices in the short term, and the market is waiting for the peak summer demand season in the long term [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude decreased by - 1.63%, - 1.70%, - 1.49%, and - 1.12% respectively [7] - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude decreased by - 2.14%, - 1.70%, - 0.81%, - 0.36%, and - 1.36% respectively [9] - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory decreased by 4.233 million barrels in the week ending August 1st. The EIA inventory increased by 7.698 million barrels in the week ending July 25th, and the inventory in the Cushing area increased by 690,000 barrels in the same week [3] 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29th, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds increased, with an increase of 2,692 for WTI and 33,959 for Brent [3][18][19]

若最终对100个国家实施10%关税，将少于特朗普政府最初设想——原清单显示123个司法管辖区(多为 小国及澳大利亚赫德岛等无人区)被列为10%关税对象。 这位共和党总统表示，继周三宣布与越南达成贸易协议后，他预计还将与其他国家签署"几项"更详细的 协议。但他同时强调，对于大多数国家更倾向于直接通知具体关税税率，跳过细节谈判。 特朗普的言论凸显出全面贸易协定的挑战性——从关税到农产品进口禁令等非关税壁垒均需协调。其高 级助手曾在四月宣称"90天内完成90项协议"，这个雄心勃勃的目标遭到熟悉贸易谈判耗时特性的专家普 遍质疑。 财政部长贝森特表示，约100个国家可能面临10%的对等关税税率，并预测在7月9日关税大幅上调的最 后期限前将出现"一系列"贸易协议。 美国总统特朗普表示，华盛顿将于美东时间周五开始向各国发送信函，具体说明它们对美出口商品将面 临的关税税率。这一表态明显背离了此前与多国分别达成协议的承诺。 在承认与170多个国家分别谈判的复杂性后，特朗普周四启程前往艾奥瓦州前对记者表示，大约"10到12 封"信件将于星期五发出，"未来几天"还会有其他信件发出。 特朗普补充道："我认为到9日他们将被完全覆盖。" ...