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公募基金泛固收指数跟踪周报(2025.11.17-2025.11.21):美联储降息预期摇摆,国内债市窄幅震荡-20251124
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-11-24 09:07
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market remained volatile. The 1-year Treasury yield dropped 0.96BP to 1.40%, the 10-year yield slightly rose to 1.82%, and the 30-year yield increased 0.95BP to 2.16%. The short - end was stronger than the long - end, and there was no expected stock - bond "see - saw effect" [3][10]. - The short - term 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.85%. Investors can wait for the yield to reach the upper limit for potential increasing allocation opportunities [3][10]. - U.S. Treasury yields declined last week. The market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has risen to about 70% after Fed official Williams' speech, but Fed officials' internal differences on further rate cuts are intensifying [11]. - The REITs market had a phased correction last week, with the data center, affordable housing, and warehousing logistics sectors leading the decline. There were also new developments in the primary market [11]. - E Fund's Ruyi Ying'an FOF raised over 5.8 billion yuan, and China Merchants Bank's "TREE Changying Plan" has helped expand the scale of medium - and low - risk FOFs [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - **Domestic Bond Market**: The domestic bond market was volatile last week. The short - end was stronger than the long - end, and there was no stock - bond "see - saw effect". The 10 - year Treasury yield may stay in the 1.75% - 1.85% range in the short term [10]. - **U.S. Bond Market**: U.S. Treasury yields declined last week. Fed officials' different views on rate cuts reflect internal differences, and the debate on further rate cuts continues [11]. - **REITs Market**: The REITs market had a phased correction last week. There were new developments in the primary market, with 3 new public REITs making progress [11]. 3.1.2 Public Fund Market Dynamics E Fund's Ruyi Ying'an 6 - month holding hybrid initiated (FOF) was established on November 19, 2025, with a fundraising scale of over 5.8 billion yuan. China Merchants Bank's "TREE Changying Plan" has contributed to the expansion of medium - and low - risk FOFs [12]. 3.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Currency Enhancement Index Tracking - **Currency Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims for liquidity management, targeting a curve that surpasses money market funds. It mainly invests in money market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the China Securities Money Fund Index [14]. 3.2.2 Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Focuses on liquidity management, aiming for a smooth curve while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and strong absolute return capabilities. The benchmark is 50% Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% General Money Fund Index [18]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Seeks stable returns by investing in medium - and long - term pure bond funds. It aims for excess returns compared to the medium - and long - term bond fund index and a stable net value curve. It selects 5 funds, balancing coupon strategies and band operations, and adjusts duration and bond types according to market conditions [20]. 3.2.3 Fixed - Income + Index Tracking - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is set at 10%. It selects 10 fixed - income + funds with an equity position (considering convertible bonds and stocks) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [22]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is 20%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [23]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Preferred Index**: The equity center is 30%. It selects 5 fixed - income + funds with an equity position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. It focuses on funds with strong stock - picking ability in the equity part and no credit downgrading in the bond part. The benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [26]. 3.2.4 Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index It selects 5 convertible bond funds from a sample space of bond funds with a convertible bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% on average in the past four quarters. It evaluates funds from multiple dimensions and selects the best - performing ones based on market conditions [30][31]. 3.2.5 QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index Tracking It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control, investing in overseas bonds in regions like the global market, Asia, and emerging markets, including investment - grade and high - yield products [31]. 3.2.6 REITs Fund Preferred Index Tracking It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and some elasticity, based on the underlying assets of mature and high - quality infrastructure projects with relatively clear cash - flow expectations [35].
【公募基金】债市区间震荡,静待政策信号——公募基金泛固收指数跟踪周报(2025.09.08-2025.09.12)
华宝财富魔方· 2025-09-15 08:56
Market Overview - The bond market experienced continuous adjustments from September 8 to September 12, 2025, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 0.41 basis points to 1.40%, the 10-year yield increasing by 4.1 basis points to 1.86%, and the 30-year yield up by 7.15 basis points to 2.18% [3][14] - The initial part of the week saw a rise in yields due to pessimistic sentiment in the bond fund market following the release of new regulations on public fund fees by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 5, 2025 [3][14] - The latter part of the week showed signs of stabilization in the bond market as the liquidity situation improved marginally [3][14] Public Fund Market Dynamics - On September 12, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to enhance the regular application and recommendation process for infrastructure REITs, aiming to expand the market and optimize the application process [3][18] Fund Index Performance Tracking - The Money Market Enhanced Index rose by 0.03% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.05% since inception [4][20] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index fell by 0.01%, with a cumulative return of 4.18% since inception [5][20] - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Index decreased by 0.20%, with a cumulative return of 6.10% since inception [6][20] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index remained unchanged, with a cumulative return of 3.83% since inception [7][20] - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index increased by 0.22%, with a cumulative return of 5.09% since inception [8][20] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Fund Index rose by 0.46%, with a cumulative return of 6.88% since inception [9][20] - The Convertible Bond Fund Index increased by 1.23%, with a cumulative return of 20.88% since inception [10][20] - The QDII Bond Fund Index rose by 0.66%, with a cumulative return of 10.01% since inception [11][20] - The REITs Fund Index fell by 1.02%, with a cumulative return of 36.19% since inception [11][20] Index Classifications - The Money Market Enhanced Index focuses on liquidity management and aims to outperform money market funds [21] - The Short-term Bond Fund Index emphasizes liquidity management while ensuring drawdown control [22] - The Medium to Long-term Bond Fund Index seeks stable returns while controlling drawdowns [25] - The Low Volatility Fixed Income + Index targets a 10% equity center and selects funds with a low risk-return profile [28] - The Medium Volatility Fixed Income + Index targets a 20% equity center and selects funds with moderate risk-return profiles [30] - The High Volatility Fixed Income + Index targets a 30% equity center and selects funds with higher risk-return profiles [31] - The QDII Bond Fund Index focuses on overseas bonds and includes a mix of investment-grade and high-yield products [36] - The REITs Fund Index selects funds based on stable cash flows from quality infrastructure projects [37]