公司盈利弹性

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金龙鱼(300999):两大产品线量利齐升,25H1盈利表现强势
HTSC· 2025-08-15 06:39
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of RMB 1156.82 billion in 25H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.67% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.59% [3][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 17.56 billion, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 60.07% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 469.24% [3][4] - The strong performance in 25H1 is attributed to the growth in both the kitchen food and feed raw materials and oil technology segments, driven by low raw material costs and recovering downstream demand [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 25H1, the kitchen food segment generated revenue of RMB 715.51 billion, up 2.69% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.66%, an increase of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The feed raw materials and oil technology segment reported revenue of RMB 431.79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.81%, with a gross margin of 4.26%, up 3.25 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities increasing by 793.97% year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to the parent company to reach RMB 40.11 billion, RMB 66.77 billion, and RMB 84.11 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding growth rates of 60.30%, 66.47%, and 25.98% [6] - The estimated EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.74, RMB 1.23, and RMB 1.55 respectively [6] - The target price is set at RMB 37.00, based on a 50x PE ratio for 2025 [6][8]